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 Statistical Learning


Wide Two-Layer Networks can Learn from Adversarial Perturbations

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Adversarial examples have raised several open questions, such as why they can deceive classifiers and transfer between different models. A prevailing hypothesis to explain these phenomena suggests that adversarial perturbations appear as random noise but contain class-specific features. This hypothesis is supported by the success of perturbation learning, where classifiers trained solely on adversarial examples and the corresponding incorrect labels generalize well to correctly labeled test data. Although this hypothesis and perturbation learning are effective in explaining intriguing properties of adversarial examples, their solid theoretical foundation is limited. In this study, we theoretically explain the counterintuitive success of perturbation learning. We assume wide two-layer networks and the results hold for any data distribution. We prove that adversarial perturbations contain sufficient class-specific features for networks to generalize from them. Moreover, the predictions of classifiers trained on mislabeled adversarial examples coincide with those of classifiers trained on correctly labeled clean samples.


Online Consistency of the Nearest Neighbor Rule

arXiv.org Machine Learning

In the realizable online setting, a learner is tasked with making predictions for a stream of instances, where the correct answer is revealed after each prediction. A learning rule is online consistent if its mistake rate eventually vanishes. The nearest neighbor rule (Fix and Hodges, 1951) is a fundamental prediction strategy, but it is only known to be consistent under strong statistical or geometric assumptions--the instances come i.i.d. or the label classes are well-separated. We prove online consistency for all measurable functions in doubling metric spaces under the mild assumption that the instances are generated by a process that is uniformly absolutely continuous with respect to a finite, upper doubling measure.


Sample-Efficient Agnostic Boosting

arXiv.org Machine Learning

The theory of boosting provides a computational framework for aggregating approximate weak learning algorithms, which perform marginally better than a random predictor, into an accurate strong learner. In the realizable case, the success of the boosting approach is underscored by a remarkable fact that the resultant sample complexity matches that of a computationally demanding alternative, namely Empirical Risk Minimization (ERM). This in particular implies that the realizable boosting methodology has the potential to offer computational relief without compromising on sample efficiency. Despite recent progress, in agnostic boosting, where assumptions on the conditional distribution of labels given feature descriptions are absent, ERM outstrips the agnostic boosting methodology in being quadratically more sample efficient than all known agnostic boosting algorithms. In this paper, we make progress on closing this gap, and give a substantially more sample efficient agnostic boosting algorithm than those known, without compromising on the computational (or oracle) complexity. A key feature of our algorithm is that it leverages the ability to reuse samples across multiple rounds of boosting, while guaranteeing a generalization error strictly better than those obtained by blackbox applications of uniform convergence arguments. We also apply our approach to other previously studied learning problems, including boosting for reinforcement learning, and demonstrate improved results.


Machine learning models for Si nanoparticle growth in nonthermal plasma

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Nanoparticles (NPs) formed in nonthermal plasmas (NTPs) can have unique properties and applications. However, modeling their growth in these environments presents significant challenges due to the non-equilibrium nature of NTPs, making them computationally expensive to describe. In this work, we address the challenges associated with accelerating the estimation of parameters needed for these models. Specifically, we explore how different machine learning models can be tailored to improve prediction outcomes. We apply these methods to reactive classical molecular dynamics data, which capture the processes associated with colliding silane fragments in NTPs. These reactions exemplify processes where qualitative trends are clear, but their quantification is challenging, hard to generalize, and requires time-consuming simulations. Our results demonstrate that good prediction performance can be achieved when appropriate loss functions are implemented and correct invariances are imposed. While the diversity of molecules used in the training set is critical for accurate prediction, our findings indicate that only a fraction (15-25\%) of the energy and temperature sampling is required to achieve high levels of accuracy. This suggests a substantial reduction in computational effort is possible for similar systems.


Full-waveform earthquake source inversion using simulation-based inference

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper presents a novel framework for full-waveform seismic source inversion using simulation-based inference (SBI). Traditional probabilistic approaches often rely on simplifying assumptions about data errors, which we show can lead to inaccurate uncertainty quantification. SBI addresses this limitation by building an empirical probabilistic model of the data errors using machine learning models, known as neural density estimators, which can then be integrated into the Bayesian inference framework. We apply the SBI framework to point-source moment tensor inversions as well as joint moment tensor and time-location inversions. We construct a range of synthetic examples to explore the quality of the SBI solutions, as well as to compare the SBI results with standard Gaussian likelihood-based Bayesian inversions. We then demonstrate that under real seismic noise, common Gaussian likelihood assumptions for treating full-waveform data yield overconfident posterior distributions that underestimate the moment tensor component uncertainties by up to a factor of 3. We contrast this with SBI, which produces well-calibrated posteriors that generally agree with the true seismic source parameters, and offers an order-of-magnitude reduction in the number of simulations required to perform inference compared to standard Monte Carlo techniques. Finally, we apply our methodology to a pair of moderate magnitude earthquakes in the North Atlantic. We utilise seismic waveforms recorded by the recent UPFLOW ocean bottom seismometer array as well as by regional land stations in the Azores, comparing full moment tensor and source-time location posteriors between SBI and a Gaussian likelihood approach. We find that our adaptation of SBI can be directly applied to real earthquake sources to efficiently produce high quality posterior distributions that significantly improve upon Gaussian likelihood approaches.


Identifying Drift, Diffusion, and Causal Structure from Temporal Snapshots

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Stochastic differential equations (SDEs) are a fundamental tool for modelling dynamic processes, including gene regulatory networks (GRNs), contaminant transport, financial markets, and image generation. However, learning the underlying SDE from observational data is a challenging task, especially when individual trajectories are not observable. Motivated by burgeoning research in single-cell datasets, we present the first comprehensive approach for jointly estimating the drift and diffusion of an SDE from its temporal marginals. Assuming linear drift and additive diffusion, we prove that these parameters are identifiable from marginals if and only if the initial distribution is not invariant to a class of generalized rotations, a condition that is satisfied by most distributions. We further prove that the causal graph of any SDE with additive diffusion can be recovered from the SDE parameters. To complement this theory, we adapt entropy-regularized optimal transport to handle anisotropic diffusion, and introduce APPEX (Alternating Projection Parameter Estimation from $X_0$), an iterative algorithm designed to estimate the drift, diffusion, and causal graph of an additive noise SDE, solely from temporal marginals. We show that each of these steps are asymptotically optimal with respect to the Kullback-Leibler divergence, and demonstrate APPEX's effectiveness on simulated data from linear additive noise SDEs.


DiabML: AI-assisted diabetes diagnosis method with meta-heuristic-based feature selection

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Diabetes is a chronic disorder identified by the high sugar level in the blood that can cause various different disorders such as kidney failure, heart attack, sightlessness, and stroke. Developments in the healthcare domain by facilitating the early detection of diabetes risk can help not only caregivers but also patients. AIoMT is a recent technology that integrates IoT and machine learning methods to give services for medical purposes, which is a powerful technology for the early detection of diabetes. In this paper, we take advantage of AIoMT and propose a hybrid diabetes risk detection method, DiabML, which uses the BWO algorithm and ML methods. BWO is utilized for feature selection and SMOTE for imbalance handling in the pre-processing procedure. The simulation results prove the superiority of the proposed DiabML method compared to the existing works. DiabML achieves 86.1\% classification accuracy by AdaBoost classifier outperforms the relevant existing methods.


K-Means Clustering With Incomplete Data with the Use of Mahalanobis Distances

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Effectively applying the K-means algorithm to data with missing values remains an important research area due to its impact on applications that rely on K-means clustering. Recent studies have shown that integrating imputation directly into the K-means algorithm yields superior results compared to handling imputation separately. In this work, we extend this approach by developing a unified K-means algorithm that incorporates Mahalanobis distances, instead of the traditional Euclidean distances, which previous research has shown to perform better for clusters with elliptical shapes. We conduct extensive experiments on synthetic datasets containing up to ten elliptical clusters, as well as the IRIS dataset. Using the Adjusted Rand Index (ARI) and Normalized Mutual Information (NMI), we demonstrate that our algorithm consistently outperforms both standalone imputation followed by K-means (using either Mahalanobis or Euclidean distance) and recent K-means algorithms that integrate imputation and clustering for handling incomplete data. These results hold across both the IRIS dataset and randomly generated data with elliptical clusters.


Mechanistic Interpretability of Reinforcement Learning Agents

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper explores the mechanistic interpretability of reinforcement learning (RL) agents through an analysis of a neural network trained on procedural maze environments. By dissecting the network's inner workings, we identified fundamental features like maze walls and pathways, forming the basis of the model's decision-making process. A significant observation was the goal misgeneralization, where the RL agent developed biases towards certain navigation strategies, such as consistently moving towards the top right corner, even in the absence of explicit goals. Using techniques like saliency mapping and feature mapping, we visualized these biases. We furthered this exploration with the development of novel tools for interactively exploring layer activations.


End-to-end Graph Learning Approach for Cognitive Diagnosis of Student Tutorial

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Cognitive diagnosis (CD) utilizes students' existing studying records to estimate their mastery of unknown knowledge concepts, which is vital for evaluating their learning abilities. Accurate CD is extremely challenging because CD is associated with complex relationships and mechanisms among students, knowledge concepts, studying records, etc. However, existing approaches loosely consider these relationships and mechanisms by a non-end-to-end learning framework, resulting in sub-optimal feature extractions and fusions for CD. Different from them, this paper innovatively proposes an End-to-end Graph Neural Networks-based Cognitive Diagnosis (EGNN-CD) model. EGNN-CD consists of three main parts: knowledge concept network (KCN), graph neural networks-based feature extraction (GNNFE), and cognitive ability prediction (CAP). First, KCN constructs CD-related interaction by comprehensively extracting physical information from students, exercises, and knowledge concepts. Second, a four-channel GNNFE is designed to extract high-order and individual features from the constructed KCN. Finally, CAP employs a multi-layer perceptron to fuse the extracted features to predict students' learning abilities in an end-to-end learning way. With such designs, the feature extractions and fusions are guaranteed to be comprehensive and optimal for CD. Extensive experiments on three real datasets demonstrate that our EGNN-CD achieves significantly higher accuracy than state-of-the-art models in CD.