Statistical Learning
Integrating Fuzzy Logic into Deep Symbolic Regression
Credit card fraud detection is a critical concern for financial institutions, intensified by the rise of contactless payment technologies. While deep learning models offer high accuracy, their lack of explainability poses significant challenges in financial settings. This paper explores the integration of fuzzy logic into Deep Symbolic Regression (DSR) to enhance both performance and explainability in fraud detection. We investigate the effectiveness of different fuzzy logic implications, specifically {\L}ukasiewicz, G\"odel, and Product, in handling the complexity and uncertainty of fraud detection datasets. Our analysis suggest that the {\L}ukasiewicz implication achieves the highest F1-score and overall accuracy, while the Product implication offers a favorable balance between performance and explainability. Despite having a performance lower than state-of-the-art (SOTA) models due to information loss in data transformation, our approach provides novelty and insights into into integrating fuzzy logic into DSR for fraud detection, providing a comprehensive comparison between different implications and methods.
Dimension-free Private Mean Estimation for Anisotropic Distributions
Dagan, Yuval, Jordan, Michael I., Yang, Xuelin, Zakynthinou, Lydia, Zhivotovskiy, Nikita
We present differentially private algorithms for high-dimensional mean estimation. Previous private estimators on distributions over $\mathbb{R}^d$ suffer from a curse of dimensionality, as they require $\Omega(d^{1/2})$ samples to achieve non-trivial error, even in cases where $O(1)$ samples suffice without privacy. This rate is unavoidable when the distribution is isotropic, namely, when the covariance is a multiple of the identity matrix, or when accuracy is measured with respect to the affine-invariant Mahalanobis distance. Yet, real-world data is often highly anisotropic, with signals concentrated on a small number of principal components. We develop estimators that are appropriate for such signals$\unicode{x2013}$our estimators are $(\varepsilon,\delta)$-differentially private and have sample complexity that is dimension-independent for anisotropic subgaussian distributions. Given $n$ samples from a distribution with known covariance-proxy $\Sigma$ and unknown mean $\mu$, we present an estimator $\hat{\mu}$ that achieves error $\|\hat{\mu}-\mu\|_2\leq \alpha$, as long as $n\gtrsim\mathrm{tr}(\Sigma)/\alpha^2+ \mathrm{tr}(\Sigma^{1/2})/(\alpha\varepsilon)$. In particular, when $\pmb{\sigma}^2=(\sigma_1^2, \ldots, \sigma_d^2)$ are the singular values of $\Sigma$, we have $\mathrm{tr}(\Sigma)=\|\pmb{\sigma}\|_2^2$ and $\mathrm{tr}(\Sigma^{1/2})=\|\pmb{\sigma}\|_1$, and hence our bound avoids dimension-dependence when the signal is concentrated in a few principal components. We show that this is the optimal sample complexity for this task up to logarithmic factors. Moreover, for the case of unknown covariance, we present an algorithm whose sample complexity has improved dependence on the dimension, from $d^{1/2}$ to $d^{1/4}$.
Introducing MAPO: Momentum-Aided Gradient Descent Prompt Optimization
Cui, Anthony, Nandyalam, Pranav, Cheung, Ethan, Zhu, Kevin
Momentum-Aided Prompt Optimization (MAPO) enhances the efficiency and efficacy of prompt optimization for Large Language Models (LLMs). Building on ProTeGi, MAPO uses positive natural language "gradients" and a momentum-based extension to refine prompts effectively. By tracking gradient history, MAPO avoids local minima and oscillations. It also utilizes beam search and an Upper Confidence Bound (UCB) algorithm for balanced candidate expansion and selection. Benchmark testing shows that MAPO achieves faster convergence time with fewer API calls and higher F1 scores than ProTeGi, proving it as a robust and scalable solution for automated prompt engineering in LLMs.
Hierarchical Preference Optimization: Learning to achieve goals via feasible subgoals prediction
Singh, Utsav, Chakraborty, Souradip, Suttle, Wesley A., Sadler, Brian M., Sahu, Anit Kumar, Shah, Mubarak, Namboodiri, Vinay P., Bedi, Amrit Singh
This work introduces Hierarchical Preference Optimization (HPO), a novel approach to hierarchical reinforcement learning (HRL) that addresses non-stationarity and infeasible subgoal generation issues when solving complex robotic control tasks. HPO leverages maximum entropy reinforcement learning combined with token-level Direct Preference Optimization (DPO), eliminating the need for pre-trained reference policies that are typically unavailable in challenging robotic scenarios. Mathematically, we formulate HRL as a bi-level optimization problem and transform it into a primitive-regularized DPO formulation, ensuring feasible subgoal generation and avoiding degenerate solutions. Extensive experiments on challenging robotic navigation and manipulation tasks demonstrate impressive performance of HPO, where it shows an improvement of up to 35% over the baselines. Furthermore, ablation studies validate our design choices, and quantitative analyses confirm the ability of HPO to mitigate non-stationarity and infeasible subgoal generation issues in HRL.
Preventing Model Collapse in Deep Canonical Correlation Analysis by Noise Regularization
He, Junlin, Du, Jinxiao, Xu, Susu, Ma, Wei
Multi-View Representation Learning (MVRL) aims to learn a unified representation of an object from multi-view data. Deep Canonical Correlation Analysis (DCCA) and its variants share simple formulations and demonstrate state-of-the-art performance. However, with extensive experiments, we observe the issue of model collapse, {\em i.e.}, the performance of DCCA-based methods will drop drastically when training proceeds. The model collapse issue could significantly hinder the wide adoption of DCCA-based methods because it is challenging to decide when to early stop. To this end, we develop NR-DCCA, which is equipped with a novel noise regularization approach to prevent model collapse. Theoretical analysis shows that the Correlation Invariant Property is the key to preventing model collapse, and our noise regularization forces the neural network to possess such a property. A framework to construct synthetic data with different common and complementary information is also developed to compare MVRL methods comprehensively. The developed NR-DCCA outperforms baselines stably and consistently in both synthetic and real-world datasets, and the proposed noise regularization approach can also be generalized to other DCCA-based methods such as DGCCA.
A Semiparametric Approach to Causal Inference
Zhang, Archer Gong, Reid, Nancy, Sun, Qiang
In causal inference, an important problem is to quantify the effects of interventions or treatments. Many studies focus on estimating the mean causal effects; however, these estimands may offer limited insight since two distributions can share the same mean yet exhibit significant differences. Examining the causal effects from a distributional perspective provides a more thorough understanding. In this paper, we employ a semiparametric density ratio model (DRM) to characterize the counterfactual distributions, introducing a framework that assumes a latent structure shared by these distributions. Our model offers flexibility by avoiding strict parametric assumptions on the counterfactual distributions. Specifically, the DRM incorporates a nonparametric component that can be estimated through the method of empirical likelihood (EL), using the data from all the groups stemming from multiple interventions. Consequently, the EL-DRM framework enables inference of the counterfactual distribution functions and their functionals, facilitating direct and transparent causal inference from a distributional perspective. Numerical studies on both synthetic and real-world data validate the effectiveness of our approach.
Small coresets via negative dependence: DPPs, linear statistics, and concentration
Bardenet, Rรฉmi, Ghosh, Subhroshekhar, Simon-Onfroy, Hugo, Tran, Hoang-Son
Determinantal point processes (DPPs) are random configurations of points with tunable negative dependence. Because sampling is tractable, DPPs are natural candidates for subsampling tasks, such as minibatch selection or coreset construction. A \emph{coreset} is a subset of a (large) training set, such that minimizing an empirical loss averaged over the coreset is a controlled replacement for the intractable minimization of the original empirical loss. Typically, the control takes the form of a guarantee that the average loss over the coreset approximates the total loss uniformly across the parameter space. Recent work has provided significant empirical support in favor of using DPPs to build randomized coresets, coupled with interesting theoretical results that are suggestive but leave some key questions unanswered. In particular, the central question of whether the cardinality of a DPP-based coreset is fundamentally smaller than one based on independent sampling remained open. In this paper, we answer this question in the affirmative, demonstrating that \emph{DPPs can provably outperform independently drawn coresets}. In this vein, we contribute a conceptual understanding of coreset loss as a \emph{linear statistic} of the (random) coreset. We leverage this structural observation to connect the coresets problem to a more general problem of concentration phenomena for linear statistics of DPPs, wherein we obtain \emph{effective concentration inequalities that extend well-beyond the state-of-the-art}, encompassing general non-projection, even non-symmetric kernels. The latter have been recently shown to be of interest in machine learning beyond coresets, but come with a limited theoretical toolbox, to the extension of which our result contributes. Finally, we are also able to address the coresets problem for vector-valued objective functions, a novelty in the coresets literature.
Ratio law: mathematical descriptions for a universal relationship between AI performance and input samples
Artificial intelligence based on machine learning and deep learning has made significant advances in various fields such as protein structure prediction and climate modeling. However, a central challenge remains: the "black box" nature of AI, where precise quantitative relationships between inputs and outputs are often lacking. Here, by analyzing 323 AI models trained to predict human essential proteins, we uncovered a ratio law showing that model performance and the ratio of minority to majority samples can be closely linked by two concise equations. Moreover, we mathematically proved that an AI model achieves its optimal performance on a balanced dataset. More importantly, we next explore whether this finding can further guide us to enhance AI models' performance. Therefore, we divided the imbalanced dataset into several balanced subsets to train base classifiers, and then applied a bagging-based ensemble learning strategy to combine these base models. As a result, the equation-guided strategy substantially improved model performance, with increases of 4.06% and 5.28%, respectively, outperforming traditional dataset balancing techniques. Finally, we confirmed the broad applicability and generalization of these equations using different types of classifiers and 10 additional, diverse binary classification tasks. In summary, this study reveals two equations precisely linking AI's input and output, which could be helpful for unboxing the mysterious "black box" of AI.
Unlocking Your Sales Insights: Advanced XGBoost Forecasting Models for Amazon Products
Wang, Meng, Liu, Yuchen, Li, Gangmin, Payne, Terry R., Yue, Yong, Man, Ka Lok
One of the important factors of profitability is the volume of transactions. An accurate prediction of the future transaction volume becomes a pivotal factor in shaping corporate operations and decision-making processes. E-commerce has presented manufacturers with convenient sales channels to, with which the sales can increase dramatically. In this study, we introduce a solution that leverages the XGBoost model to tackle the challenge of predict-ing sales for consumer electronics products on the Amazon platform. Initial-ly, our attempts to solely predict sales volume yielded unsatisfactory results. However, by replacing the sales volume data with sales range values, we achieved satisfactory accuracy with our model. Furthermore, our results in-dicate that XGBoost exhibits superior predictive performance compared to traditional models.
Magnitude Pruning of Large Pretrained Transformer Models with a Mixture Gaussian Prior
Zhang, Mingxuan, Sun, Yan, Liang, Faming
Large pretrained transformer models have revolutionized modern AI applications with their state-of-the-art performance in natural language processing (NLP). However, their substantial parameter count poses challenges for real-world deployment. To address this, researchers often reduce model size by pruning parameters based on their magnitude or sensitivity. Previous research has demonstrated the limitations of magnitude pruning, especially in the context of transfer learning for modern NLP tasks. In this paper, we introduce a new magnitude-based pruning algorithm called mixture Gaussian prior pruning (MGPP), which employs a mixture Gaussian prior for regularization. MGPP prunes non-expressive weights under the guidance of the mixture Gaussian prior, aiming to retain the model's expressive capability. Extensive evaluations across various NLP tasks, including natural language understanding, question answering, and natural language generation, demonstrate the superiority of MGPP over existing pruning methods, particularly in high sparsity settings. Additionally, we provide a theoretical justification for the consistency of the sparse transformer, shedding light on the effectiveness of the proposed pruning method.