Neural Information Processing Systems http://nips.cc/

We propose a stepsize adaptation scheme for stochastic gradient descent. It operates directly with the loss function and rescales the gradient in order to make fixed predicted progress on the loss. We demonstrate its capabilities by conclusively improving the performance of Adam and Momentum optimizers. The enhanced optimizers with default hyperparameters consistently outperform their constant stepsize counterparts, even the best ones, without a measurable increase in computational cost. The performance is validated on multiple architectures including dense nets, CNNs, ResNets, and the recurrent Differential Neural Computer on classical datasets MNIST, fashion MNIST, CIFAR10 and others.

Neural Information Processing Systems http://nips.cc/

Data normalisation, a common and often necessary preprocessing step in engineering and scientific applications, can severely distort the discovery of governing equations by magnitudebased sparse regression methods. This issue is particularly acute for the Sparse Identification of Nonlinear Dynamics (SINDy) framework, where the core assumption of sparsity is undermined by the interaction between data scaling and measurement noise. The resulting discovered models can be dense, uninterpretable, and physically incorrect. To address this critical vulnerability, we introduce the Sequential Thresholding of Coefficient of Variation (STCV), a novel, computationally efficient sparse regression algorithm that is inherently robust to data scaling. STCV replaces conventional magnitude-based thresholding with a dimensionless statistical metric, the Coefficient Presence (CP), which assesses the statistical validity and consistency of candidate terms in the model library. This shift from magnitude to statistical significance makes the discovery process invariant to arbitrary data scaling. Through comprehensive benchmarking on canonical dynamical systems and practical engineering problems, including a physical mass-spring-damper experiment, we demonstrate that STCV consistently and significantly outperforms standard Sequential Thresholding Least Squares (STLSQ) and Ensemble-SINDy (E-SINDy) on normalised, noisy datasets. The results show that STCV-based methods can successfully identify the correct, sparse physical laws even when other methods fail. By mitigating the distorting effects of normalisation, STCV makes sparse system identification a more reliable and automated tool for real-world applications, thereby enhancing model interpretability and trustworthiness.

We introduce a novel framework for uncertainty quantification in clustering. By combining the martingale posterior paradigm with density-based clustering, uncertainty in the estimated density is naturally propagated to the clustering structure. The approach scales effectively to high-dimensional and irregularly shaped data by leveraging modern neural density estimators and GPU-friendly parallel computation. We establish frequen-tist consistency guarantees and validate the methodology on synthetic and real data.

Spatio-temporal forecasting is fundamental to intelligent systems in transportation, climate science, and urban planning. However, training deep learning models on the massive, often redundant, datasets from these domains presents a significant computational bottleneck. Existing solutions typically focus on optimizing model architectures or optimizers, while overlooking the inherent inefficiency of the training data itself. This conventional approach of iterating over the entire static dataset each epoch wastes considerable resources on easy-to-learn or repetitive samples. In this paper, we explore a novel training-efficiency techniques, namely learning from complexity with dynamic sample pruning, ST-Prune, for spatio-temporal forecasting. Through dynamic sample pruning, we aim to intelligently identify the most informative samples based on the model's real-time learning state, thereby accelerating convergence and improving training efficiency. Extensive experiments conducted on real-world spatio-temporal datasets show that ST-Prune significantly accelerates the training speed while maintaining or even improving the model performance, and it also has scalability and universality.

We develop a finite-sample, design-based theory for random forests in which each tree is a randomized conditional predictor acting on fixed covariates and the forest is their Monte Carlo average. An exact variance identity separates Monte Carlo error from a covariance floor that persists under infinite aggregation. The floor arises through two mechanisms: observation reuse, where the same training outcomes receive weight across multiple trees, and partition alignment, where independently generated trees discover similar conditional prediction rules. We prove the floor is strictly positive under minimal conditions and show that alignment persists even when sample splitting eliminates observation overlap entirely. We introduce procedure-aligned synthetic resampling (PASR) to estimate the covariance floor, decomposing the total prediction uncertainty of a deployed forest into interpretable components. For continuous outcomes, resulting prediction intervals achieve nominal coverage with a theoretically guaranteed conservative bias direction. For classification forests, the PASR estimator is asymptotically unbiased, providing the first pointwise confidence intervals for predicted conditional probabilities from a deployed forest. Nominal coverage is maintained across a range of design configurations for both outcome types, including high-dimensional settings. The underlying theory extends to any tree-based ensemble with an exchangeable tree-generating mechanism.

In healthcare, predictive models increasingly inform patient-level decisions, yet little attention is paid to the variability in individual risk estimates and its impact on treatment decisions. For overparameterized models, now standard in machine learning, a substantial source of variability often goes undetected. Even when the data and model architecture are held fixed, randomness introduced by optimization and initialization can lead to materially different risk estimates for the same patient. This problem is largely obscured by standard evaluation practices, which rely on aggregate performance metrics (e.g., log-loss, accuracy) that are agnostic to individual-level stability. As a result, models with indistinguishable aggregate performance can nonetheless exhibit substantial procedural arbitrariness, which can undermine clinical trust. We propose an evaluation framework that quantifies individual-level prediction instability by using two complementary diagnostics: empirical prediction interval width (ePIW), which captures variability in continuous risk estimates, and empirical decision flip rate (eDFR), which measures instability in threshold-based clinical decisions. We apply these diagnostics to simulated data and GUSTO-I clinical dataset. Across observed settings, we find that for flexible machine-learning models, randomness arising solely from optimization and initialization can induce individual-level variability comparable to that produced by resampling the entire training dataset. Neural networks exhibit substantially greater instability in individual risk predictions compared to logistic regression models. Risk estimate instability near clinically relevant decision thresholds can alter treatment recommendations. These findings that stability diagnostics should be incorporated into routine model validation for assessing clinical reliability.

Algorithmic decisions about individuals require predictions that are not only accurate but also fair with respect to sensitive attributes such as gender and race. Causal notions of fairness align with legal requirements, yet many methods assume access to detailed knowledge of the underlying causal graph, which is a demanding assumption in practice. We propose a learning framework that achieves interventional fairness by leveraging a causal graph over \textit{clusters of variables}, which is substantially easier to estimate than a variable-level graph. With possible \textit{adjustment cluster sets} identified from such a cluster causal graph, our framework trains a prediction model by reducing the worst-case discrepancy between interventional distributions across these sets. To this end, we develop a computationally efficient barycenter kernel maximum mean discrepancy (MMD) that scales favorably with the number of sensitive attribute values. Extensive experiments show that our framework strikes a better balance between fairness and accuracy than existing approaches, highlighting its effectiveness under limited causal graph knowledge.