Statistical Learning
Efficient Sample-optimal Learning of Gaussian Tree Models via Sample-optimal Testing of Gaussian Mutual Information
Gayen, Sutanu, Kale, Sanket, Sen, Sayantan
Learning high-dimensional distributions is a significant challenge in machine learning and statistics. Classical research has mostly concentrated on asymptotic analysis of such data under suitable assumptions. While existing works [Bhattacharyya et al.: SICOMP 2023, Daskalakis et al.: STOC 2021, Choo et al.: ALT 2024] focus on discrete distributions, the current work addresses the tree structure learning problem for Gaussian distributions, providing efficient algorithms with solid theoretical guarantees. This is crucial as real-world distributions are often continuous and differ from the discrete scenarios studied in prior works. In this work, we design a conditional mutual information tester for Gaussian random variables that can test whether two Gaussian random variables are independent, or their conditional mutual information is at least $\varepsilon$, for some parameter $\varepsilon \in (0,1)$ using $\mathcal{O}(\varepsilon^{-1})$ samples which we show to be near-optimal. In contrast, an additive estimation would require $\Omega(\varepsilon^{-2})$ samples. Our upper bound technique uses linear regression on a pair of suitably transformed random variables. Importantly, we show that the chain rule of conditional mutual information continues to hold for the estimated (conditional) mutual information. As an application of such a mutual information tester, we give an efficient $\varepsilon$-approximate structure-learning algorithm for an $n$-variate Gaussian tree model that takes $\widetilde{\Theta}(n\varepsilon^{-1})$ samples which we again show to be near-optimal. In contrast, when the underlying Gaussian model is not known to be tree-structured, we show that $\widetilde{{{\Theta}}}(n^2\varepsilon^{-2})$ samples are necessary and sufficient to output an $\varepsilon$-approximate tree structure. We perform extensive experiments that corroborate our theoretical convergence bounds.
Search, Verify and Feedback: Towards Next Generation Post-training Paradigm of Foundation Models via Verifier Engineering
Guan, Xinyan, Liu, Yanjiang, Lu, Xinyu, Cao, Boxi, He, Ben, Han, Xianpei, Sun, Le, Lou, Jie, Yu, Bowen, Lu, Yaojie, Lin, Hongyu
The evolution of machine learning has increasingly prioritized the development of powerful models and more scalable supervision signals. However, the emergence of foundation models presents significant challenges in providing effective supervision signals necessary for further enhancing their capabilities. Consequently, there is an urgent need to explore novel supervision signals and technical approaches. In this paper, we propose verifier engineering, a novel post-training paradigm specifically designed for the era of foundation models. The core of verifier engineering involves leveraging a suite of automated verifiers to perform verification tasks and deliver meaningful feedback to foundation models. We systematically categorize the verifier engineering process into three essential stages: search, verify, and feedback, and provide a comprehensive review of state-of-the-art research developments within each stage. We believe that verifier engineering constitutes a fundamental pathway toward achieving Artificial General Intelligence.
Accelerating spherical K-means clustering for large-scale sparse document data
This paper presents an accelerated spherical K-means clustering algorithm for large-scale and high-dimensional sparse document data sets. We design an algorithm working in an architecture-friendly manner (AFM), which is a procedure of suppressing performance-degradation factors such as the numbers of instructions, branch mispredictions, and cache misses in CPUs of a modern computer system. For the AFM operation, we leverage unique universal characteristics (UCs) of a data-object and a cluster's mean set, which are skewed distributions on data relationships such as Zipf's law and a feature-value concentration phenomenon. The UCs indicate that the most part of the number of multiplications for similarity calculations is executed regarding terms with high document frequencies (df) and the most part of a similarity between an object- and a mean-feature vector is obtained by the multiplications regarding a few high mean-feature values. Our proposed algorithm applies an inverted-index data structure to a mean set, extracts the specific region with high-df terms and high mean-feature values in the mean-inverted index by newly introduced two structural parameters, and exploits the index divided into three parts for efficient pruning. The algorithm determines the two structural parameters by minimizing the approximate number of multiplications related to that of instructions, reduces the branch mispredictions by sharing the index structure including the two parameters with all the objects, and suppressing the cache misses by keeping in the caches the frequently used data in the foregoing specific region, resulting in working in the AFM. We experimentally demonstrate that our algorithm efficiently achieves superior speed performance in large-scale documents compared with algorithms using the state-of-the-art techniques.
BONE: a unifying framework for Bayesian online learning in non-stationary environments
Duran-Martin, Gerardo, Sรกnchez-Betancourt, Leandro, Shestopaloff, Alexander Y., Murphy, Kevin
We propose a unifying framework for methods that perform Bayesian online learning in non-stationary environments. We call the framework BONE, which stands for (B)ayesian (O)nline learning in (N)on-stationary (E)nvironments. BONE provides a common structure to tackle a variety of problems, including online continual learning, prequential forecasting, and contextual bandits. The framework requires specifying three modelling choices: (i) a model for measurements (e.g., a neural network), (ii) an auxiliary process to model non-stationarity (e.g., the time since the last changepoint), and (iii) a conditional prior over model parameters (e.g., a multivariate Gaussian). The framework also requires two algorithmic choices, which we use to carry out approximate inference under this framework: (i) an algorithm to estimate beliefs (posterior distribution) about the model parameters given the auxiliary variable, and (ii) an algorithm to estimate beliefs about the auxiliary variable. We show how this modularity allows us to write many different existing methods as instances of BONE; we also use this framework to propose a new method. We then experimentally compare existing methods with our proposed new method on several datasets; we provide insights into the situations that make one method more suitable than another for a given task.
Back-filling Missing Data When Predicting Domestic Electricity Consumption From Smart Meter Data
Chen, Xianjuan, Cai, Shuxiang, Smeaton, Alan F.
This study uses data from domestic electricity smart meters to estimate annual electricity bills for a whole year. We develop a method for back-filling data smart meter for up to six missing months for users who have less than one year of smart meter data, ensuring reliable estimates of annual consumption. We identify five distinct electricity consumption user profiles for homes based on day, night, and peak usage patterns, highlighting the economic advantages of Time-of-Use (ToU) tariffs over fixed tariffs for most users, especially those with higher nighttime consumption. Ultimately, the results of this study empowers consumers to manage their energy use effectively and to make informed choices regarding electricity tariff plans.
Image Forgery Localization via Guided Noise and Multi-Scale Feature Aggregation
Niu, Yakun, Chen, Pei, Zhang, Lei, Tan, Lei, Chen, Yingjian
Image Forgery Localization (IFL) technology aims to detect and locate the forged areas in an image, which is very important in the field of digital forensics. However, existing IFL methods suffer from feature degradation during training using multi-layer convolutions or the self-attention mechanism, and perform poorly in detecting small forged regions and in robustness against post-processing. To tackle these, we propose a guided and multi-scale feature aggregated network for IFL. Spectifically, in order to comprehensively learn the noise feature under different types of forgery, we develop an effective noise extraction module in a guided way. Then, we design a Feature Aggregation Module (FAM) that uses dynamic convolution to adaptively aggregate RGB and noise features over multiple scales. Moreover, we propose an Atrous Residual Pyramid Module (ARPM) to enhance features representation and capture both global and local features using different receptive fields to improve the accuracy and robustness of forgery localization. Expensive experiments on 5 public datasets have shown that our proposed model outperforms several the state-of-the-art methods, specially on small region forged image.
Effective Predictive Modeling for Emergency Department Visits and Evaluating Exogenous Variables Impact: Using Explainable Meta-learning Gradient Boosting
Neshat, Mehdi, Phipps, Michael, Jha, Nikhil, Khojasteh, Danial, Tong, Michael, Gandomi, Amir
Over an extensive duration, administrators and clinicians have endeavoured to predict Emergency Department (ED) visits with precision, aiming to optimise resource distribution. Despite the proliferation of diverse AI-driven models tailored for precise prognostication, this task persists as a formidable challenge, besieged by constraints such as restrained generalisability, susceptibility to overfitting and underfitting, scalability issues, and complex fine-tuning hyper-parameters. In this study, we introduce a novel Meta-learning Gradient Booster (Meta-ED) approach for precisely forecasting daily ED visits and leveraging a comprehensive dataset of exogenous variables, including socio-demographic characteristics, healthcare service use, chronic diseases, diagnosis, and climate parameters spanning 23 years from Canberra Hospital in ACT, Australia. The proposed Meta-ED consists of four foundational learners-Catboost, Random Forest, Extra Tree, and lightGBoost-alongside a dependable top-level learner, Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP), by combining the unique capabilities of varied base models (sub-learners). Our study assesses the efficacy of the Meta-ED model through an extensive comparative analysis involving 23 models. The evaluation outcomes reveal a notable superiority of Meta-ED over the other models in accuracy at 85.7% (95% CI ;85.4%, 86.0%) and across a spectrum of 10 evaluation metrics. Notably, when compared with prominent techniques, XGBoost, Random Forest (RF), AdaBoost, LightGBoost, and Extra Tree (ExT), Meta-ED showcases substantial accuracy enhancements of 58.6%, 106.3%, 22.3%, 7.0%, and 15.7%, respectively. Furthermore, incorporating weather-related features demonstrates a 3.25% improvement in the prediction accuracy of visitors' numbers. The encouraging outcomes of our study underscore Meta-ED as a foundation model for the precise prediction of daily ED visitors.
From Primes to Paths: Enabling Fast Multi-Relational Graph Analysis
Bougiatiotis, Konstantinos, Paliouras, Georgios
Multi-relational networks capture intricate relationships in data and have diverse applications across fields such as biomedical, financial, and social sciences. As networks derived from increasingly large datasets become more common, identifying efficient methods for representing and analyzing them becomes crucial. This work extends the Prime Adjacency Matrices (PAMs) framework, which employs prime numbers to represent distinct relations within a network uniquely. This enables a compact representation of a complete multi-relational graph using a single adjacency matrix, which, in turn, facilitates quick computation of multi-hop adjacency matrices. In this work, we enhance the framework by introducing a lossless algorithm for calculating the multi-hop matrices and propose the Bag of Paths (BoP) representation, a versatile feature extraction methodology for various graph analytics tasks, at the node, edge, and graph level. We demonstrate the efficiency of the framework across various tasks and datasets, showing that simple BoP-based models perform comparably to or better than commonly used neural models while offering improved speed and interpretability.
Making Sigmoid-MSE Great Again: Output Reset Challenges Softmax Cross-Entropy in Neural Network Classification
Tyagi, Kanishka, Rane, Chinmay, Vaidya, Ketaki, Challgundla, Jeshwanth, Auddy, Soumitro Swapan, Manry, Michael
This study presents a comparative analysis of two objective functions, Mean Squared Error (MSE) and Softmax Cross-Entropy (SCE) for neural network classification tasks. While SCE combined with softmax activation is the conventional choice for transforming network outputs into class probabilities, we explore an alternative approach using MSE with sigmoid activation. We introduce the Output Reset algorithm, which reduces inconsistent errors and enhances classifier robustness. Through extensive experiments on benchmark datasets (MNIST, CIFAR-10, and Fashion-MNIST), we demonstrate that MSE with sigmoid activation achieves comparable accuracy and convergence rates to SCE, while exhibiting superior performance in scenarios with noisy data. Our findings indicate that MSE, despite its traditional association with regression tasks, serves as a viable alternative for classification problems, challenging conventional wisdom about neural network training strategies.
Leveraging AI and NLP for Bank Marketing: A Systematic Review and Gap Analysis
Gerling, Christopher, Lessmann, Stefan
This paper explores the growing impact of AI and NLP in bank marketing, highlighting their evolving roles in enhancing marketing strategies, improving customer engagement, and creating value within this sector. While AI and NLP have been widely studied in general marketing, there is a notable gap in understanding their specific applications and potential within the banking sector. This research addresses this specific gap by providing a systematic review and strategic analysis of AI and NLP applications in bank marketing, focusing on their integration across the customer journey and operational excellence. Employing the PRISMA methodology, this study systematically reviews existing literature to assess the current landscape of AI and NLP in bank marketing. Additionally, it incorporates semantic mapping using Sentence Transformers and UMAP for strategic gap analysis to identify underexplored areas and opportunities for future research. The systematic review reveals limited research specifically focused on NLP applications in bank marketing. The strategic gap analysis identifies key areas where NLP can further enhance marketing strategies, including customer-centric applications like acquisition, retention, and personalized engagement, offering valuable insights for both academic research and practical implementation. This research contributes to the field of bank marketing by mapping the current state of AI and NLP applications and identifying strategic gaps. The findings provide actionable insights for developing NLP-driven growth and innovation frameworks and highlight the role of NLP in improving operational efficiency and regulatory compliance. This work has broader implications for enhancing customer experience, profitability, and innovation in the banking industry.