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 Statistical Learning


Urban Region Embeddings from Service-Specific Mobile Traffic Data

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

--With the advent of advanced 4G/5G mobile networks, mobile phone data collected by operators now includes detailed, service-specific traffic information with high spatiotemporal resolution. In this paper, we leverage this type of data to explore its potential for generating high-quality representations of urban regions. T o achieve this, we present a methodology for creating urban region embeddings from service-specific mobile traffic data, employing a temporal convolutional network-based autoencoder, transformers, and learnable weighted sum models to capture key urban features. In the extensive experimental evaluation conducted using a real-world dataset, we demonstrate that the embeddings generated by our methodology effectively capture urban characteristics. Specifically, our embeddings are compared against those of a state-of-the-art competitor across two downstream tasks. Additionally, through clustering techniques, we investigate how well the embeddings produced by our methodology capture the temporal dynamics and characteristics of the underlying urban regions. Overall, this work highlights the potential of service-specific mobile traffic data for urban research and emphasizes the importance of making such data accessible to support public innovation. Mobile phone activity data is a well-established and widely explored type of mobility data used in various applications, including mobility, health, socio-economic, and demographic studies. In the past years, mobile phone data was typically studied in the form of Call Detail Records (CDRs), which capture users' connections to cell towers during calls or messaging activities. However, this type of data is often sparse and irregular, limiting its potential for broader and more scalable applications. With the rise of 4G/5G cellular networks, mobile phone usage has shifted towards extensive use of data services, such as mobile applications, which generate massive volumes of data traffic. The information related to the data traffic volume generated by these services can offer rich spatio-temporal details and insights into the characteristics of the underlying urban regions. To this end, in this work, we consider the NetMob 2023 dataset [1], which provides detailed data on mobile traffic volume across multiple data services. Orange, the mobile operator providing the dataset, recorded upload and download traffic for 68 different mobile applications across 20 major French cities.


Non-Linear Outlier Synthesis for Out-of-Distribution Detection

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The reliability of supervised classifiers is severely hampered by their limitations in dealing with unexpected inputs, leading to great interest in out-of-distribution (OOD) detection. Recently, OOD detectors trained on synthetic outliers, especially those generated by large diffusion models, have shown promising results in defining robust OOD decision boundaries. Building on this progress, we present NCIS, which enhances the quality of synthetic outliers by operating directly in the diffusion's model embedding space rather than combining disjoint models as in previous work and by modeling class-conditional manifolds with a conditional volume-preserving network for more expressive characterization of the training distribution. We demonstrate that these improvements yield new state-of-the-art OOD detection results on standard ImageNet100 and CIFAR100 benchmarks and provide insights into the importance of data pre-processing and other key design choices. We make our code available at \url{https://github.com/LarsDoorenbos/NCIS}.


Predictive Insights into LGBTQ+ Minority Stress: A Transductive Exploration of Social Media Discourse

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Individuals who identify as sexual and gender minorities, including lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, queer, and others (LGBTQ+) are more likely to experience poorer health than their heterosexual and cisgender counterparts. One primary source that drives these health disparities is minority stress (i.e., chronic and social stressors unique to LGBTQ+ communities' experiences adapting to the dominant culture). This stress is frequently expressed in LGBTQ+ users' posts on social media platforms. However, these expressions are not just straightforward manifestations of minority stress. They involve linguistic complexity (e.g., idiom or lexical diversity), rendering them challenging for many traditional natural language processing methods to detect. In this work, we designed a hybrid model using Graph Neural Networks (GNN) and Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers (BERT), a pre-trained deep language model to improve the classification performance of minority stress detection. We experimented with our model on a benchmark social media dataset for minority stress detection (LGBTQ+ MiSSoM+). The dataset is comprised of 5,789 human-annotated Reddit posts from LGBTQ+ subreddits. Our approach enables the extraction of hidden linguistic nuances through pretraining on a vast amount of raw data, while also engaging in transductive learning to jointly develop representations for both labeled training data and unlabeled test data. The RoBERTa-GCN model achieved an accuracy of 0.86 and an F1 score of 0.86, surpassing the performance of other baseline models in predicting LGBTQ+ minority stress. Improved prediction of minority stress expressions on social media could lead to digital health interventions to improve the wellbeing of LGBTQ+ people-a community with high rates of stress-sensitive health problems.


ODTE -- An ensemble of multi-class SVM-based oblique decision trees

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We propose ODTE, a new ensemble that uses oblique decision trees as base classifiers. Additionally, we introduce STree, the base algorithm for growing oblique decision trees, which leverages support vector machines to define hyperplanes within the decision nodes. We embed a multiclass strategy -- one-vs-one or one-vs-rest -- at the decision nodes, allowing the model to directly handle non-binary classification tasks without the need to cluster instances into two groups, as is common in other approaches from the literature. In each decision node, only the best-performing model SVM -- the one that minimizes an impurity measure for the n-ary classification -- is retained, even if the learned SVM addresses a binary classification subtask. An extensive experimental study involving 49 datasets and various state-of-the-art algorithms for oblique decision tree ensembles has been conducted. Our results show that ODTE ranks consistently above its competitors, achieving significant performance gains when hyperparameters are carefully tuned. Moreover, the oblique decision trees learned through STree are more compact than those produced by other algorithms evaluated in our experiments.


Moving Horizon Estimation for Simultaneous Localization and Mapping with Robust Estimation Error Bounds

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

-- This paper presents a robust moving horizon estimation (MHE) approach with provable estimation error bounds for solving the simultaneous localization and mapping (SLAM) problem. We derive sufficient conditions to guarantee robust stability in ego-state estimates and bounded errors in landmark position estimates, even under limited landmark visibility which directly affects overall system detectability. This is achieved by decoupling the MHE updates for the ego-state and landmark positions, enabling individual landmark updates only when the required detectability conditions are met. The decoupled MHE structure also allows for parallelization of landmark updates, improving computational efficiency. We discuss the key assumptions, including ego-state detectability and Lipschitz continuity of the landmark measurement model, with respect to typical SLAM sensor configurations, and introduce a streamlined method for the range measurement model. Simulation results validate the considered method, highlighting its efficacy and robustness to noise. Simultaneous localization and mapping (SLAM) refers to the fundamental task of enabling a robot to localize itself while concurrently constructing a map of an unknown environment using measurements of both robot and environment states. Traditionally, SLAM is approached via filtering-based methods, as reviewed in, e.g., [1], [2], such as extended Kalman filters (EKFs) and particle filters (PFs), or optimization-based techniques.


Transformers with Sparse Attention for Granger Causality

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Temporal causal analysis means understanding the underlying causes behind observed variables over time. Deep learning based methods such as transformers are increasingly used to capture temporal dynamics and causal relationships beyond mere correlations. Recent works suggest self-attention weights of transformers as a useful indicator of causal links. We leverage this to propose a novel modification to the self-attention module to establish causal links between the variables of multivariate time-series data with varying lag dependencies. Our Sparse Attention Transformer captures causal relationships using a two-fold approach - performing temporal attention first followed by attention between the variables across the time steps masking them individually to compute Granger Causality indices. The key novelty in our approach is the ability of the model to assert importance and pick the most significant past time instances for its prediction task against manually feeding a fixed time lag value. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach via extensive experimentation on several synthetic benchmark datasets. Furthermore, we compare the performance of our model with the traditional Vector Autoregression based Granger Causality method that assumes fixed lag length.


Long-term Detection System for Six Kinds of Abnormal Behavior of the Elderly Living Alone

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The proportion of elderly people is increasing worldwide, particularly those living alone in Japan. As elderly people get older, their risks of physical disabilities and health issues increase. To automatically discover these issues at a low cost in daily life, sensor-based detection in a smart home is promising. As part of the effort towards early detection of abnormal behaviors, we propose a simulator-based detection systems for six typical anomalies: being semi-bedridden, being housebound, forgetting, wandering, fall while walking and fall while standing. Our detection system can be customized for various room layout, sensor arrangement and resident's characteristics by training detection classifiers using the simulator with the parameters fitted to individual cases. Considering that the six anomalies that our system detects have various occurrence durations, such as being housebound for weeks or lying still for seconds after a fall, the detection classifiers of our system produce anomaly labels depending on each anomaly's occurrence duration, e.g., housebound per day and falls per second. We propose a method that standardizes the processing of sensor data, and uses a simple detection approach. Although the validity depends on the realism of the simulation, numerical evaluations using sensor data that includes a variety of resident behavior patterns over nine years as test data show that (1) the methods for detecting wandering and falls are comparable to previous methods, and (2) the methods for detecting being semi-bedridden, being housebound, and forgetting achieve a sensitivity of over 0.9 with fewer than one false alarm every 50 days.


Domain Adaptive Unfolded Graph Neural Networks

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Over the last decade, graph neural networks (GNNs) have made significant progress in numerous graph machine learning tasks. In real-world applications, where domain shifts occur and labels are often unavailable for a new target domain, graph domain adaptation (GDA) approaches have been proposed to facilitate knowledge transfer from the source domain to the target domain. Previous efforts in tackling distribution shifts across domains have mainly focused on aligning the node embedding distributions generated by the GNNs in the source and target domains. However, as the core part of GDA approaches, the impact of the underlying GNN architecture has received limited attention. In this work, we explore this orthogonal direction, i.e., how to facilitate GDA with architectural enhancement. In particular, we consider a class of GNNs that are designed explicitly based on optimization problems, namely unfolded GNNs (UGNNs), whose training process can be represented as bi-level optimization. Empirical and theoretical analyses demonstrate that when transferring from the source domain to the target domain, the lower-level objective value generated by the UGNNs significantly increases, resulting in an increase in the upper-level objective as well. Motivated by this observation, we propose a simple yet effective strategy called cascaded propagation (CP), which is guaranteed to decrease the lower-level objective value. The CP strategy is widely applicable to general UGNNs, and we evaluate its efficacy with three representative UGNN architectures. Extensive experiments on five real-world datasets demonstrate that the UGNNs integrated with CP outperform state-of-the-art GDA baselines.


Incremental Label Distribution Learning with Scalable Graph Convolutional Networks

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Label Distribution Learning (LDL) is an effective approach for handling label ambiguity, as it can analyze all labels at once and indicate the extent to which each label describes a given sample. Most existing LDL methods consider the number of labels to be static. However, in various LDL-specific contexts (e.g., disease diagnosis), the label count grows over time (such as the discovery of new diseases), a factor that existing methods overlook. Learning samples with new labels directly means learning all labels at once, thus wasting more time on the old labels and even risking overfitting the old labels. At the same time, learning new labels by the LDL model means reconstructing the inter-label relationships. How to make use of constructed relationships is also a crucial challenge. To tackle these challenges, we introduce Incremental Label Distribution Learning (ILDL), analyze its key issues regarding training samples and inter-label relationships, and propose Scalable Graph Label Distribution Learning (SGLDL) as a practical framework for implementing ILDL. Specifically, in SGLDL, we develop a New-label-aware Gradient Compensation Loss to speed up the learning of new labels and represent inter-label relationships as a graph to reduce the time required to reconstruct inter-label relationships. Experimental results on the classical LDL dataset show the clear advantages of unique algorithms and illustrate the importance of a dedicated design for the ILDL problem.


Improving OOD Generalization of Pre-trained Encoders via Aligned Embedding-Space Ensembles

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The quality of self-supervised pre-trained embeddings on out-of-distribution (OOD) data is poor without fine-tuning. A straightforward and simple approach to improving the generalization of pre-trained representation to OOD data is the use of deep ensembles. However, obtaining an effective ensemble in the embedding space with only unlabeled data remains an unsolved problem. We first perform a theoretical analysis that reveals the relationship between individual hyperspherical embedding spaces in an ensemble. We then design a principled method to align these embedding spaces in an unsupervised manner. Experimental results on the MNIST dataset show that our embedding-space ensemble method improves pre-trained embedding quality on in-distribution and OOD data compared to single encoders.