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 Statistical Learning


Heavy Tails in SGD and Compressibility of Overparametrized Neural Networks

Neural Information Processing Systems

Neural network compression techniques have become increasingly popular as they can drastically reduce the storage and computation requirements for very large networks. Recent empirical studies have illustrated that even simple pruning strategies can be surprisingly effective, and several theoretical studies have shown that compressible networks (in specific senses) should achieve a low generalization error. Yet, a theoretical characterization of the underlying causes that make the networks amenable to such simple compression schemes is still missing. In this study, focusing our attention on stochastic gradient descent (SGD), our main contribution is to link compressibility to two recently established properties of SGD: (i) as the network size goes to infinity, the system can converge to a mean-field limit, where the network weights behave independently [DBDFŞ20], (ii) for a large step-size/batch-size ratio, the SGD iterates can converge to a heavy-tailed stationary distribution [HM20, GŞZ21]. Assuming that both of these phenomena occur simultaneously, we prove that the networks are guaranteed to be '$\ell_p$-compressible', and the compression errors of different pruning techniques (magnitude, singular value, or node pruning) become arbitrarily small as the network size increases. We further prove generalization bounds adapted to our theoretical framework, which are consistent with the observation that the generalization error will be lower for more compressible networks. Our theory and numerical study on various neural networks show that large step-size/batch-size ratios introduce heavy tails, which, in combination with overparametrization, result in compressibility.


DOPPLER: Differentially Private Optimizers with Low-pass Filter for Privacy Noise Reduction

Neural Information Processing Systems

Privacy is a growing concern in modern deep-learning systems and applications. Differentially private (DP) training prevents the leakage of sensitive information in the collected training data from the trained machine learning models. DP optimizers, including DP stochastic gradient descent (DPSGD) and its variants, privatize the training procedure by gradient clipping and injection. However, in practice, DP models trained using DPSGD and its variants often suffer from significant model performance degradation. Such degradation prevents the application of DP optimization in many key tasks, such as foundation model pretraining.


A Stochastic Linearized Augmented Lagrangian Method for Decentralized Bilevel Optimization

Neural Information Processing Systems

Bilevel optimization has been shown to be a powerful framework for formulating multi-task machine learning problems, e.g., reinforcement learning (RL) and meta-learning, where the decision variables are coupled in both levels of the minimization problems. In practice, the learning tasks would be located at different computing resource environments, and thus there is a need for deploying a decentralized training framework to implement multi-agent and multi-task learning. We develop a stochastic linearized augmented Lagrangian method (SLAM) for solving general nonconvex bilevel optimization problems over a graph, where both upper and lower optimization variables are able to achieve a consensus. We also establish that the theoretical convergence rate of the proposed SLAM to the Karush-Kuhn-Tucker (KKT) points of this class of problems is on the same order as the one achieved by the classical distributed stochastic gradient descent for only single-level nonconvex minimization problems. Numerical results tested on multi-agent RL problems showcase the superiority of SLAM compared with the benchmarks.


Certified Machine Unlearning via Noisy Stochastic Gradient Descent

Neural Information Processing Systems

Machine unlearning aims to efficiently remove the effect of certain data points on the trained model parameters so that it can be approximately the same as if one retrains the model from scratch. We propose to leverage projected noisy stochastic gradient descent for unlearning and establish its first approximate unlearning guarantee under the convexity assumption. Our approach exhibits several benefits, including provable complexity saving compared to retraining, and supporting sequential and batch unlearning. Both of these benefits are closely related to our new results on the infinite Wasserstein distance tracking of the adjacent (un)learning processes. Extensive experiments show that our approach achieves a similar utility under the same privacy constraint while using $2\%$ and $10\%$ of the gradient computations compared with the state-of-the-art gradient-based approximate unlearning methods for mini-batch and full-batch settings, respectively.


Credal Learning Theory

Neural Information Processing Systems

Statistical learning theory is the foundation of machine learning, providing theoretical bounds for the risk of models learned from a (single) training set, assumed to issue from an unknown probability distribution. In actual deployment, however, the data distribution may (and often does) vary, causing domain adaptation/generalization issues. In this paper we lay the foundations for a `credal' theory of learning, using convex sets of probabilities (credal sets) to model the variability in the data-generating distribution. Such credal sets, we argue, may be inferred from a finite sample of training sets. Bounds are derived for the case of finite hypotheses spaces (both assuming realizability or not), as well as infinite model spaces, which directly generalize classical results.


A Bayesian Approach to Data Point Selection

Neural Information Processing Systems

Data point selection (DPS) is becoming a critical topic in deep learning due to the ease of acquiring uncurated training data compared to the difficulty of obtaining curated or processed data. Existing approaches to DPS are predominantly based on a bi-level optimisation (BLO) formulation, which is demanding in terms of memory and computation, and exhibits some theoretical defects regarding minibatches.Thus, we propose a novel Bayesian approach to DPS. We view the DPS problem as posterior inference in a novel Bayesian model where the posterior distributions of the instance-wise weights and the main neural network parameters are inferred under a reasonable prior and likelihood model.We employ stochastic gradient Langevin MCMC sampling to learn the main network and instance-wise weights jointly, ensuring convergence even with minibatches. Our update equation is comparable to the widely used SGD and much more efficient than existing BLO-based methods. Through controlled experiments in both the vision and language domains, we present the proof-of-concept. Additionally, we demonstrate that our method scales effectively to large language models and facilitates automated per-task optimization for instruction fine-tuning datasets.


Starting Off on the Wrong Foot: Pitfalls in Data Preparation

arXiv.org Machine Learning

When working with real-world insurance data, practitioners often encounter challenges during the data preparation stage that can undermine the statistical validity and reliability of downstream modeling. This study illustrates that conventional data preparation procedures such as random train-test partitioning, often yield unreliable and unstable results when confronted with highly imbalanced insurance loss data. To mitigate these limitations, we propose a novel data preparation framework leveraging two recent statistical advancements: support points for representative data splitting to ensure distributional consistency across partitions, and the Chatterjee correlation coefficient for initial, non-parametric feature screening to capture feature relevance and dependence structure. We further integrate these theoretical advances into a unified, efficient framework that also incorporates missing-data handling, and embed this framework within our custom InsurAutoML pipeline. The performance of the proposed approach is evaluated using both simulated datasets and datasets often cited in the academic literature. Our findings definitively demonstrate that incorporating statistically rigorous data preparation methods not only significantly enhances model robustness and interpretability but also substantially reduces computational resource requirements across diverse insurance loss modeling tasks. This work provides a crucial methodological upgrade for achieving reliable results in high stakes insurance applications.


Kernel Single-Index Bandits: Estimation, Inference, and Learning

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We study contextual bandits with finitely many actions in which the reward of each arm follows a single-index model with an arm-specific index parameter and an unknown nonparametric link function. We consider a regime in which arms correspond to stable decision options and covariates evolve adaptively under the bandit policy. This setting creates significant statistical challenges: the sampling distribution depends on the allocation rule, observations are dependent over time, and inverse-propensity weighting induces variance inflation. We propose a kernelized $\varepsilon$-greedy algorithm that combines Stein-based estimation of the index parameters with inverse-propensity-weighted kernel ridge regression for the reward functions. This approach enables flexible semiparametric learning while retaining interpretability. Our analysis develops new tools for inference with adaptively collected data. We establish asymptotic normality for the single-index estimator under adaptive sampling, yielding valid confidence regions, and derive a directional functional central limit theorem for the RKHS estimator, which provides asymptotically valid pointwise confidence intervals. The analysis relies on concentration bounds for inverse-weighted Gram matrices together with martingale central limit theorems. We further obtain finite-time regret guarantees, including $\tilde{O}(\sqrt{T})$ rates under common-link Lipschitz conditions, showing that semiparametric structure can be exploited without sacrificing statistical efficiency. These results provide a unified framework for simultaneous learning and inference in single-index contextual bandits.


Adaptive Nonlinear Data Assimilation through P-Spline Triangular Measure Transport

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Non-Gaussian statistics are a challenge for data assimilation. Linear methods oversimplify the problem, yet fully nonlinear methods are often too expensive to use in practice. The best solution usually lies between these extremes. Triangular measure transport offers a flexible framework for nonlinear data assimilation. Its success, however, depends on how the map is parametrized. Too much flexibility leads to overfitting; too little misses important structure. To address this balance, we develop an adaptation algorithm that selects a parsimonious parametrization automatically. Our method uses P-spline basis functions and an information criterion as a continuous measure of model complexity. This formulation enables gradient descent and allows efficient, fine-scale adaptation in high-dimensional settings. The resulting algorithm requires no hyperparameter tuning. It adjusts the transport map to the appropriate level of complexity based on the system statistics and ensemble size. We demonstrate its performance in nonlinear, non-Gaussian problems, including a high-dimensional distributed groundwater model.


Hardness of High-Dimensional Linear Classification

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We establish new exponential in dimension lower bounds for the Maximum Halfspace Discrepancy problem, which models linear classification. Both are fundamental problems in computational geometry and machine learning in their exact and approximate forms. However, only $O(n^d)$ and respectively $\tilde O(1/\varepsilon^d)$ upper bounds are known and complemented by polynomial lower bounds that do not support the exponential in dimension dependence. We close this gap up to polylogarithmic terms by reduction from widely-believed hardness conjectures for Affine Degeneracy testing and $k$-Sum problems. Our reductions yield matching lower bounds of $\tildeΩ(n^d)$ and respectively $\tildeΩ(1/\varepsilon^d)$ based on Affine Degeneracy testing, and $\tildeΩ(n^{d/2})$ and respectively $\tildeΩ(1/\varepsilon^{d/2})$ conditioned on $k$-Sum. The first bound also holds unconditionally if the computational model is restricted to make sidedness queries, which corresponds to a widely spread setting implemented and optimized in many contemporary algorithms and computing paradigms.