Statistical Learning
Crash Severity Risk Modeling Strategies under Data Imbalance
Mamun, Abdullah Al, Enan, Abyad, Indah, Debbie A., Mwakalonge, Judith, Comert, Gurcan, Chowdhury, Mashrur
This study investigates crash severity risk modeling strategies for work zones involving large vehicles (i.e., trucks, buses, and vans) when there are crash data imbalance between low-severity (LS) and high-severity (HS) crashes. We utilized crash data, involving large vehicles in South Carolina work zones for the period between 2014 and 2018, which included 4 times more LS crashes compared to HS crashes. The objective of this study is to explore crash severity prediction performance of various models under different feature selection and data balancing techniques. The findings of this study highlight a disparity between LS and HS predictions, with less-accurate prediction of HS crashes compared to LS crashes due to class imbalance and feature overlaps between LS and HS crashes. Combining features from multiple feature selection techniques: statistical correlation, feature importance, recursive elimination, statistical tests, and mutual information, slightly improves HS crash prediction performance. Data balancing techniques such as NearMiss-1 and RandomUnderSampler, maximize HS recall when paired with certain prediction models, such as Bayesian Mixed Logit (BML), NeuralNet, and RandomForest, making them suitable for HS crash prediction. Conversely, RandomOverSampler, HS Class Weighting, and Kernel-based Synthetic Minority Oversampling (K-SMOTE), used with certain prediction models such as BML, CatBoost, and LightGBM, achieve a balanced performance, defined as achieving an equitable trade-off between LS and HS prediction performance metrics. These insights provide safety analysts with guidance to select models, feature selection techniques, and data balancing techniques that align with their specific safety objectives, offering a robust foundation for enhancing work-zone crash severity prediction.
BN-AuthProf: Benchmarking Machine Learning for Bangla Author Profiling on Social Media Texts
Tasnim, Raisa, Chowdhury, Mehanaz, Rahman, Md Ataur
Author profiling, the analysis of texts to uncover attributes such as gender and age of the author, has become essential with the widespread use of social media platforms. This paper focuses on author profiling in the Bangla language, aiming to extract valuable insights about anonymous authors based on their writing style on social media. The primary objective is to introduce and benchmark the performance of machine learning approaches on a newly created Bangla Author Profiling dataset, BN-AuthProf. The dataset comprises 30,131 social media posts from 300 authors, labeled by their age and gender. Authors' identities and sensitive information were anonymized to ensure privacy. Various classical machine learning and deep learning techniques were employed to evaluate the dataset. For gender classification, the best accuracy achieved was 80% using Support Vector Machine (SVM), while a Multinomial Naive Bayes (MNB) classifier achieved the best F1 score of 0.756. For age classification, MNB attained a maximum accuracy score of 91% with an F1 score of 0.905. This research highlights the effectiveness of machine learning in gender and age classification for Bangla author profiling, with practical implications spanning marketing, security, forensic linguistics, education, and criminal investigations, considering privacy and biases.
Adversarial Sample-Based Approach for Tighter Privacy Auditing in Final Model-Only Scenarios
Yoon, Sangyeon, Jeung, Wonje, No, Albert
Auditing Differentially Private Stochastic Gradient Descent (DP-SGD) in the final model setting is challenging and often results in empirical lower bounds that are significantly looser than theoretical privacy guarantees. We introduce a novel auditing method that achieves tighter empirical lower bounds without additional assumptions by crafting worst-case adversarial samples through loss-based inputspace auditing. Our approach surpasses traditional canary-based heuristics and is effective in both white-box and black-box scenarios. Specifically, with a theoretical privacy budget of ฮต = 10.0, our method achieves empirical lower bounds of 6.68 in white-box settings and 4.51 in black-box settings, compared to the baseline of 4.11 for MNIST. Moreover, we demonstrate that significant privacy auditing results can be achieved using in-distribution (ID) samples as canaries, obtaining an empirical lower bound of 4.33 where traditional methods produce near-zero leakage detection. Our work offers a practical framework for reliable and accurate privacy auditing in differentially private machine learning.
STLGame: Signal Temporal Logic Games in Adversarial Multi-Agent Systems
Yang, Shuo, Zheng, Hongrui, Vasile, Cristian-Ioan, Pappas, George, Mangharam, Rahul
We study how to synthesize a robust and safe policy for autonomous systems under signal temporal logic (STL) tasks in adversarial settings against unknown dynamic agents. To ensure the worst-case STL satisfaction, we propose STLGame, a framework that models the multi-agent system as a two-player zero-sum game, where the ego agents try to maximize the STL satisfaction and other agents minimize it. STLGame aims to find a Nash equilibrium policy profile, which is the best case in terms of robustness against unseen opponent policies, by using the fictitious self-play (FSP) framework. FSP iteratively converges to a Nash profile, even in games set in continuous state-action spaces. We propose a gradient-based method with differentiable STL formulas, which is crucial in continuous settings to approximate the best responses at each iteration of FSP. We show this key aspect experimentally by comparing with reinforcement learning-based methods to find the best response. Experiments on two standard dynamical system benchmarks, Ackermann steering vehicles and autonomous drones, demonstrate that our converged policy is almost unexploitable and robust to various unseen opponents' policies. All code and additional experimental results can be found on our project website: https://sites.google.com/view/stlgame
Enhanced N-BEATS for Mid-Term Electricity Demand Forecasting
Kasprzyk, Mateusz, Peลka, Paweล, Oreshkin, Boris N., Dudek, Grzegorz
Accurate MTLF supports informed decision-making across multiple aspects of power system management, including power plant scheduling, infrastructure expansion, market operations, and maintaining grid reliability and security. By anticipating future demand, utilities can optimize maintenance schedules, secure fuel supplies, and plan necessary capacity additions. Additionally, accurate forecasts across various time horizons are crucial for ensuring grid stability by maintaining the balance between supply and demand. Furthermore, precise forecasting enables strategic decision-making in energy markets, guiding the timing of electricity purchases and sales. In summary, load forecasting serves as a cornerstone for efficient, reliable, and resilient power system operations.
Generalized EXTRA stochastic gradient Langevin dynamics
Gurbuzbalaban, Mert, Islam, Mohammad Rafiqul, Wang, Xiaoyu, Zhu, Lingjiong
Langevin algorithms are popular Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods for Bayesian learning, particularly when the aim is to sample from the posterior distribution of a parametric model, given the input data and the prior distribution over the model parameters. Their stochastic versions such as stochastic gradient Langevin dynamics (SGLD) allow iterative learning based on randomly sampled mini-batches of large datasets and are scalable to large datasets. However, when data is decentralized across a network of agents subject to communication and privacy constraints, standard SGLD algorithms cannot be applied. Instead, we employ decentralized SGLD (DE-SGLD) algorithms, where Bayesian learning is performed collaboratively by a network of agents without sharing individual data. Nonetheless, existing DE-SGLD algorithms induce a bias at every agent that can negatively impact performance; this bias persists even when using full batches and is attributable to network effects. Motivated by the EXTRA algorithm and its generalizations for decentralized optimization, we propose the generalized EXTRA stochastic gradient Langevin dynamics, which eliminates this bias in the full-batch setting. Moreover, we show that, in the mini-batch setting, our algorithm provides performance bounds that significantly improve upon those of standard DE-SGLD algorithms in the literature. Our numerical results also demonstrate the efficiency of the proposed approach.
SparseGrasp: Robotic Grasping via 3D Semantic Gaussian Splatting from Sparse Multi-View RGB Images
Yu, Junqiu, Ren, Xinlin, Gu, Yongchong, Lin, Haitao, Wang, Tianyu, Zhu, Yi, Xu, Hang, Jiang, Yu-Gang, Xue, Xiangyang, Fu, Yanwei
Language-guided robotic grasping is a rapidly advancing field where robots are instructed using human language to grasp specific objects. However, existing methods often depend on dense camera views and struggle to quickly update scenes, limiting their effectiveness in changeable environments. In contrast, we propose SparseGrasp, a novel open-vocabulary robotic grasping system that operates efficiently with sparse-view RGB images and handles scene updates fastly. Our system builds upon and significantly enhances existing computer vision modules in robotic learning. Specifically, SparseGrasp utilizes DUSt3R to generate a dense point cloud as the initialization for 3D Gaussian Splatting (3DGS), maintaining high fidelity even under sparse supervision. Importantly, SparseGrasp incorporates semantic awareness from recent vision foundation models. To further improve processing efficiency, we repurpose Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to compress features from 2D models. Additionally, we introduce a novel render-and-compare strategy that ensures rapid scene updates, enabling multi-turn grasping in changeable environments. Experimental results show that SparseGrasp significantly outperforms state-of-the-art methods in terms of both speed and adaptability, providing a robust solution for multi-turn grasping in changeable environment.
Revisiting the Initial Steps in Adaptive Gradient Descent Optimization
Abuduweili, Abulikemu, Liu, Changliu
Adaptive gradient optimization methods, such as Adam, are prevalent in training deep neural networks across diverse machine learning tasks due to their ability to achieve faster convergence. However, these methods often suffer from suboptimal generalization compared to stochastic gradient descent (SGD) and exhibit instability, particularly when training Transformer models. In this work, we show the standard initialization of the second-order moment estimation ($v_0 =0$) as a significant factor contributing to these limitations. We introduce simple yet effective solutions: initializing the second-order moment estimation with non-zero values, using either data-driven or random initialization strategies. Empirical evaluations demonstrate that our approach not only stabilizes convergence but also enhances the final performance of adaptive gradient optimizers. Furthermore, by adopting the proposed initialization strategies, Adam achieves performance comparable to many recently proposed variants of adaptive gradient optimization methods, highlighting the practical impact of this straightforward modification.
NCDD: Nearest Centroid Distance Deficit for Out-Of-Distribution Detection in Gastrointestinal Vision
Pokhrel, Sandesh, Bhandari, Sanjay, Ali, Sharib, Lambrou, Tryphon, Nguyen, Anh, Shrestha, Yash Raj, Watson, Angus, Stoyanov, Danail, Gyawali, Prashnna, Bhattarai, Binod
The integration of deep learning tools in gastrointestinal vision holds the potential for significant advancements in diagnosis, treatment, and overall patient care. A major challenge, however, is these tools' tendency to make overconfident predictions, even when encountering unseen or newly emerging disease patterns, undermining their reliability. We address this critical issue of reliability by framing it as an out-of-distribution (OOD) detection problem, where previously unseen and emerging diseases are identified as OOD examples. However, gastrointestinal images pose a unique challenge due to the overlapping feature representations between in- Distribution (ID) and OOD examples. Existing approaches often overlook this characteristic, as they are primarily developed for natural image datasets, where feature distinctions are more apparent. Despite the overlap, we hypothesize that the features of an in-distribution example will cluster closer to the centroids of their ground truth class, resulting in a shorter distance to the nearest centroid. In contrast, OOD examples maintain an equal distance from all class centroids. Based on this observation, we propose a novel nearest-centroid distance deficit (NCCD) score in the feature space for gastrointestinal OOD detection. Evaluations across multiple deep learning architectures and two publicly available benchmarks, Kvasir2 and Gastrovision, demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach compared to several state-of-the-art methods. The code and implementation details are publicly available at: https://github.com/bhattarailab/NCDD
Density-Calibrated Conformal Quantile Regression
This paper introduces the Density-Calibrated Conformal Quantile Regression (CQR-d) method, a novel approach for constructing prediction intervals that adapts to varying uncertainty across the feature space. Building upon conformal quantile regression, CQR-d incorporates local information through a weighted combination of local and global conformity scores, where the weights are determined by local data density. We prove that CQR-d provides valid marginal coverage at level $1 - \alpha - \epsilon$, where $\epsilon$ represents a small tolerance from numerical optimization. Through extensive simulation studies and an application to the a heteroscedastic dataset available in R, we demonstrate that CQR-d maintains the desired coverage while producing substantially narrower prediction intervals compared to standard conformal quantile regression (CQR). The method's effectiveness is particularly pronounced in settings with clear local uncertainty patterns, making it a valuable tool for prediction tasks in heterogeneous data environments.