Machine learning (ML) models trained using Empirical Risk Minimization (ERM) often exhibit systematic errors on specific subpopulations of tabular data, known as error slices. Learning robust representation in presence of error slices is challenging, especially in self-supervised settings during the feature reconstruction phase, due to high cardinality features and the complexity of constructing error sets. Traditional robust representation learning methods are largely focused on improving worst group performance in supervised setting in computer vision, leaving a gap in approaches tailored for tabular data. We address this gap by developing a framework to learn robust representation in tabular data during self-supervised pre-training. Our approach utilizes an encoder-decoder model trained with Masked Language Modeling (MLM) loss to learn robust latent representations. This paper applies the Just Train Twice (JTT) and Deep Feature Reweighting (DFR) methods during the pre-training phase for tabular data. These methods fine-tune the ERM pre-trained model by up-weighting error-prone samples or creating balanced datasets for specific categorical features. This results in specialized models for each feature, which are then used in an ensemble approach to enhance downstream classification performance. This methodology improves robustness across slices, thus enhancing overall generalization performance. Extensive experiments across various datasets demonstrate the efficacy of our approach. The code is available: \url{https://github.com/amazon-science/distributionally-robust-self-supervised-learning-for-tabular-data}.

Community detection is the task of clustering objects based on their pairwise relationships. Most of the model-based community detection methods, such as the stochastic block model and its variants, are designed for networks with binary (yes/no) edges. In many practical scenarios, edges often possess continuous weights, spanning positive and negative values, which reflect varying levels of connectivity. To address this challenge, we introduce the heterogeneous block covariance model (HBCM) that defines a community structure within the covariance matrix, where edges have signed and continuous weights. Furthermore, it takes into account the heterogeneity of objects when forming connections with other objects within a community. A novel variational expectation-maximization algorithm is proposed to estimate the group membership. The HBCM provides provable consistent estimates of memberships, and its promising performance is observed in numerical simulations with different setups. The model is applied to a single-cell RNA-seq dataset of a mouse embryo and a stock price dataset. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.

Adequately generating and evaluating prediction models based on supervised machine learning (ML) is often challenging, especially for less experienced users in applied research areas. Special attention is required in settings where the model generation process involves hyperparameter tuning, i.e. data-driven optimization of different types of hyperparameters to improve the predictive performance of the resulting model. Discussions about tuning typically focus on the hyperparameters of the ML algorithm (e.g., the minimum number of observations in each terminal node for a tree-based algorithm). In this context, it is often neglected that hyperparameters also exist for the preprocessing steps that are applied to the data before it is provided to the algorithm (e.g., how to handle missing feature values in the data). As a consequence, users experimenting with different preprocessing options to improve model performance may be unaware that this constitutes a form of hyperparameter tuning - albeit informal and unsystematic - and thus may fail to report or account for this optimization. To illuminate this issue, this paper reviews and empirically illustrates different procedures for generating and evaluating prediction models, explicitly addressing the different ways algorithm and preprocessing hyperparameters are typically handled by applied ML users. By highlighting potential pitfalls, especially those that may lead to exaggerated performance claims, this review aims to further improve the quality of predictive modeling in ML applications.

Locally stationary processes (LSPs) provide a robust framework for modeling time-varying phenomena, allowing for smooth variations in statistical properties such as mean and variance over time. In this paper, we address the estimation of the conditional probability distribution of LSPs using Nadaraya-Watson (NW) type estimators. The NW estimator approximates the conditional distribution of a target variable given covariates through kernel smoothing techniques. We establish the convergence rate of the NW conditional probability estimator for LSPs in the univariate setting under the Wasserstein distance and extend this analysis to the multivariate case using the sliced Wasserstein distance. Theoretical results are supported by numerical experiments on both synthetic and real-world datasets, demonstrating the practical usefulness of the proposed estimators.

Tensor decompositions play a crucial role in numerous applications related to multi-way data analysis. By employing a Bayesian framework with sparsity-inducing priors, Bayesian Tensor Ring (BTR) factorization offers probabilistic estimates and an effective approach for automatically adapting the tensor ring rank during the learning process. However, previous BTR method employs an Automatic Relevance Determination (ARD) prior, which can lead to sub-optimal solutions. Besides, it solely focuses on continuous data, whereas many applications involve discrete data. More importantly, it relies on the Coordinate-Ascent Variational Inference (CAVI) algorithm, which is inadequate for handling large tensors with extensive observations. These limitations greatly limit its application scales and scopes, making it suitable only for small-scale problems, such as image/video completion. To address these issues, we propose a novel BTR model that incorporates a nonparametric Multiplicative Gamma Process (MGP) prior, known for its superior accuracy in identifying latent structures. To handle discrete data, we introduce the P\'olya-Gamma augmentation for closed-form updates. Furthermore, we develop an efficient Gibbs sampler for consistent posterior simulation, which reduces the computational complexity of previous VI algorithm by two orders, and an online EM algorithm that is scalable to extremely large tensors. To showcase the advantages of our model, we conduct extensive experiments on both simulation data and real-world applications.

Neural Jump ODEs model the conditional expectation between observations by neural ODEs and jump at arrival of new observations. They have demonstrated effectiveness for fully data-driven online forecasting in settings with irregular and partial observations, operating under weak regularity assumptions. This work extends the framework to input-output systems, enabling direct applications in online filtering and classification. We establish theoretical convergence guarantees for this approach, providing a robust solution to $L^2$-optimal filtering. Empirical experiments highlight the model's superior performance over classical parametric methods, particularly in scenarios with complex underlying distributions. These results emphasise the approach's potential in time-sensitive domains such as finance and health monitoring, where real-time accuracy is crucial.

Recent work in language modeling has raised the possibility of self-improvement, where a language models evaluates and refines its own generations to achieve higher performance without external feedback. It is impossible for this self-improvement to create information that is not already in the model, so why should we expect that this will lead to improved capabilities? We offer a new perspective on the capabilities of self-improvement through a lens we refer to as sharpening. Motivated by the observation that language models are often better at verifying response quality than they are at generating correct responses, we formalize self-improvement as using the model itself as a verifier during post-training in order to ``sharpen'' the model to one placing large mass on high-quality sequences, thereby amortizing the expensive inference-time computation of generating good sequences. We begin by introducing a new statistical framework for sharpening in which the learner aims to sharpen a pre-trained base policy via sample access, and establish fundamental limits. Then we analyze two natural families of self-improvement algorithms based on SFT and RLHF. We find that (i) the SFT-based approach is minimax optimal whenever the initial model has sufficient coverage, but (ii) the RLHF-based approach can improve over SFT-based self-improvement by leveraging online exploration, bypassing the need for coverage. Finally, we empirically validate the sharpening mechanism via inference-time and amortization experiments. We view these findings as a starting point toward a foundational understanding that can guide the design and evaluation of self-improvement algorithms.

Investigating the marginal causal effect of an intervention on an outcome from complex data remains challenging due to the inflexibility of employed models and the lack of complexity in causal benchmark datasets, which often fail to reproduce intricate real-world data patterns. In this paper we introduce Frugal Flows, a novel likelihood-based machine learning model that uses normalising flows to flexibly learn the data-generating process, while also directly inferring the marginal causal quantities from observational data. We propose that these models are exceptionally well suited for generating synthetic data to validate causal methods. They can create synthetic datasets that closely resemble the empirical dataset, while automatically and exactly satisfying a user-defined average treatment effect. To our knowledge, Frugal Flows are the first generative model to both learn flexible data representations and also exactly parameterise quantities such as the average treatment effect and the degree of unobserved confounding. We demonstrate the above with experiments on both simulated and real-world datasets.

FedProx is a simple yet effective federated learning method that enables model personalization via regularization. Despite remarkable success in practice, a rigorous analysis of how such a regularization provably improves the statistical accuracy of each client's local model hasn't been fully established. Setting the regularization strength heuristically presents a risk, as an inappropriate choice may even degrade accuracy. This work fills in the gap by analyzing the effect of regularization on statistical accuracy, thereby providing a theoretical guideline for setting the regularization strength for achieving personalization. We prove that by adaptively choosing the regularization strength under different statistical heterogeneity, FedProx can consistently outperform pure local training and achieve a minimaxoptimal statistical rate. In addition, to shed light on resource allocation, we design an algorithm, provably showing that stronger personalization reduces communication complexity without increasing the computation cost overhead. Finally, our theory is validated on both synthetic and real-world datasets and its generalizability is verified in a non-convex setting. Federated Learning (FL) has emerged as an attractive framework for aggregating distributed data, enabling clients to collaboratively train a shared global model while preserving data privacy. In the currently prevalent paradigm (McMahan et al., 2017), FL is formulated as a finite sum minimization problem focusing on a single shared model. Nevertheless, it has been well recognized that one of the key challenges in FL is the statistical heterogeneity of the client datasets. As the participants collect their own local data, it often reflects client-specific characteristics and is not identically distributed. With high statistical heterogeneity, training a single model for all clients by minimizing their average in-sample loss becomes questionable. To address this challenge, one solution is to relax the common model constraint and solve alternatively the following objective in FedProx (Li et al., 2020a): ( min p The smaller λ is, the weaker the coupling of the local models the formulation would enforce thus the higher personalization is.

Kolmogorov-Arnold Network (KAN) is a network structure recently proposed by Liu et al. (2024) that offers improved interpretability and a more parsimonious design in many science-oriented tasks compared to multi-layer perceptrons. This work provides a rigorous theoretical analysis of KAN by establishing generalization bounds for KAN equipped with activation functions that are either represented by linear combinations of basis functions or lying in a low-rank Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Space (RKHS). In the first case, the generalization bound accommodates various choices of basis functions in forming the activation functions in each layer of KAN and is adapted to different operator norms at each layer. For a particular choice of operator norms, the bound scales with the $l_1$ norm of the coefficient matrices and the Lipschitz constants for the activation functions, and it has no dependence on combinatorial parameters (e.g., number of nodes) outside of logarithmic factors. Moreover, our result does not require the boundedness assumption on the loss function and, hence, is applicable to a general class of regression-type loss functions. In the low-rank case, the generalization bound scales polynomially with the underlying ranks as well as the Lipschitz constants of the activation functions in each layer. These bounds are empirically investigated for KANs trained with stochastic gradient descent on simulated and real data sets. The numerical results demonstrate the practical relevance of these bounds.