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 Statistical Learning


A surprisal oracle for when every layer counts

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Active Curriculum Language Modeling (ACLM; Hong et al., 2023) is a learner directed approach to training a language model. We proposed the original version of this process in our submission to the BabyLM 2023 task, and now we propose an updated ACLM process for the BabyLM 2024 task. ACLM involves an iteratively- and dynamically-constructed curriculum informed over the training process by a model of uncertainty; other training items that are similarly uncertain to a least certain candidate item are prioritized. Our new process improves the similarity model so that it is more dynamic, and we run ACLM over the most successful model from the BabyLM 2023 task: ELC-BERT (Charpentier and Samuel, 2023). We find that while our models underperform on fine-grained grammatical inferences, they outperform the BabyLM 2024 official base-lines on common-sense and world-knowledge tasks. We make our code available at https: //github.com/asayeed/ActiveBaby.


Conveying Emotions to Robots through Touch and Sound

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Human emotions can be conveyed through nuanced touch gestures. However, there is a lack of understanding of how consistently emotions can be conveyed to robots through touch. This study explores the consistency of touch-based emotional expression toward a robot by integrating tactile and auditory sensory reading of affective haptic expressions. We developed a piezoresistive pressure sensor and used a microphone to mimic touch and sound channels, respectively. In a study with 28 participants, each conveyed 10 emotions to a robot using spontaneous touch gestures. Our findings reveal a statistically significant consistency in emotion expression among participants. However, some emotions obtained low intraclass correlation values. Additionally, certain emotions with similar levels of arousal or valence did not exhibit significant differences in the way they were conveyed. We subsequently constructed a multi-modal integrating touch and audio features to decode the 10 emotions. A support vector machine (SVM) model demonstrated the highest accuracy, achieving 40% for 10 classes, with "Attention" being the most accurately conveyed emotion at a balanced accuracy of 87.65%.


Large-Scale Dense 3D Mapping Using Submaps Derived From Orthogonal Imaging Sonars

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

3D situational awareness is critical for any autonomous system. However, when operating underwater, environmental conditions often dictate the use of acoustic sensors. These acoustic sensors are plagued by high noise and a lack of 3D information in sonar imagery, motivating the use of an orthogonal pair of imaging sonars to recover 3D perceptual data. Thus far, mapping systems in this area only use a subset of the available data at discrete timesteps and rely on object-level prior information in the environment to develop high-coverage 3D maps. Moreover, simple repeating objects must be present to build high-coverage maps. In this work, we propose a submap-based mapping system integrated with a simultaneous localization and mapping (SLAM) system to produce dense, 3D maps of complex unknown environments with varying densities of simple repeating objects. We compare this submapping approach to our previous works in this area, analyzing simple and highly complex environments, such as submerged aircraft. We analyze the tradeoffs between a submapping-based approach and our previous work leveraging simple repeating objects. We show where each method is well-motivated and where they fall short. Importantly, our proposed use of submapping achieves an advance in underwater situational awareness with wide aperture multi-beam imaging sonar, moving toward generalized large-scale dense 3D mapping capability for fully unknown complex environments.


GP-FL: Model-Based Hessian Estimation for Second-Order Over-the-Air Federated Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Second-order methods are widely adopted to improve the convergence rate of learning algorithms. In federated learning (FL), these methods require the clients to share their local Hessian matrices with the parameter server (PS), which comes at a prohibitive communication cost. A classical solution to this issue is to approximate the global Hessian matrix from the first-order information. Unlike in idealized networks, this solution does not perform effectively in over-the-air FL settings, where the PS receives noisy versions of the local gradients. This paper introduces a novel second-order FL framework tailored for wireless channels. The pivotal innovation lies in the PS's capability to directly estimate the global Hessian matrix from the received noisy local gradients via a non-parametric method: the PS models the unknown Hessian matrix as a Gaussian process, and then uses the temporal relation between the gradients and Hessian along with the channel model to find a stochastic estimator for the global Hessian matrix. We refer to this method as Gaussian process-based Hessian modeling for wireless FL (GP-FL) and show that it exhibits a linear-quadratic convergence rate. Numerical experiments on various datasets demonstrate that GP-FL outperforms all classical baseline first and second order FL approaches.


Tight Lower Bounds and Improved Convergence in Performative Prediction

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Performative prediction is a framework accounting for the shift in the data distribution induced by the prediction of a model deployed in the real world. Ensuring rapid convergence to a stable solution where the data distribution remains the same after the model deployment is crucial, especially in evolving environments. This paper extends the Repeated Risk Minimization (RRM) framework by utilizing historical datasets from previous retraining snapshots, yielding a class of algorithms that we call Affine Risk Minimizers and enabling convergence to a performatively stable point for a broader class of problems. We introduce a new upper bound for methods that use only the final iteration of the dataset and prove for the first time the tightness of both this new bound and the previous existing bounds within the same regime. We also prove that utilizing historical datasets can surpass the lower bound for last iterate RRM, and empirically observe faster convergence to the stable point on various perfor-mative prediction benchmarks. We offer at the same time the first lower bound analysis for RRM within the class of Affine Risk Min-imizers, quantifying the potential improvements in convergence speed that could be achieved with other variants in our framework.


Can In-context Learning Really Generalize to Out-of-distribution Tasks?

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In this work, we explore the mechanism of in-context learning (ICL) on out-of-distribution (OOD) tasks that were not encountered during training. To achieve this, we conduct synthetic experiments where the objective is to learn OOD mathematical functions through ICL using a GPT-2 model. We reveal that Transformers may struggle to learn OOD task functions through ICL. Specifically, ICL performance resembles implementing a function within the pretraining hypothesis space and optimizing it with gradient descent based on the in-context examples. Additionally, we investigate ICL's well-documented ability to learn unseen abstract labels in context. We demonstrate that such ability only manifests in the scenarios without distributional shifts and, therefore, may not serve as evidence of new-task-learning ability. Furthermore, we assess ICL's performance on OOD tasks when the model is pretrained on multiple tasks. Both empirical and theoretical analyses demonstrate the existence of the \textbf{low-test-error preference} of ICL, where it tends to implement the pretraining function that yields low test error in the testing context. We validate this through numerical experiments. This new theoretical result, combined with our empirical findings, elucidates the mechanism of ICL in addressing OOD tasks.


Utilizing Machine Learning Models to Predict Acute Kidney Injury in Septic Patients from MIMIC-III Database

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Sepsis is a severe condition that causes the body to respond incorrectly to an infection. This reaction can subsequently cause organ failure, a major one being acute kidney injury (AKI). For septic patients, approximately 50% develop AKI, with a mortality rate above 40%. Creating models that can accurately predict AKI based on specific qualities of septic patients is crucial for early detection and intervention. Using medical data from septic patients during intensive care unit (ICU) admission from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care 3 (MIMIC-III) database, we extracted 3301 patients with sepsis, with 73% of patients developing AKI. The data was randomly divided into a training set (n = 1980, 40%), a test set (n = 661, 10%), and a validation set (n = 660, 50%). The proposed model was logistic regression, and it was compared against five baseline models: XGBoost, K Nearest Neighbors (KNN), Support Vector Machines (SVM), Random Forest (RF), and LightGBM. Area Under the Curve (AUC), Accuracy, F1-Score, and Recall were calculated for each model. After analysis, we were able to select 23 features to include in our model, the top features being urine output, maximum bilirubin, minimum bilirubin, weight, maximum blood urea nitrogen, and minimum estimated glomerular filtration rate. The logistic regression model performed the best, achieving an AUC score of 0.887 (95% CI: [0.861-0.915]), an accuracy of 0.817, an F1 score of 0.866, a recall score of 0.827, and a Brier score of 0.13. Compared to the best existing literature in this field, our model achieved an 8.57% improvement in AUC while using 13 fewer variables, showcasing its effectiveness in determining AKI in septic patients. While the features selected for predicting AKI in septic patients are similar to previous literature, the top features that influenced our model's performance differ.


Granular Ball Twin Support Vector Machine with Universum Data

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Innovative Data Representation with Granular Balls: The GBU-TSVM model employs an innovative approach by representing data instances as granular balls rather than conventional points. This method improves the model's robustness and efficiency, especially in handling noisy and large datasets. By grouping data points into granular balls, the model achieves better computational efficiency, increased noise resistance, and enhanced interpretability, establishing a new standard in data representation. Enhanced Generalization using Universum Data: The GBU-TSVM incorporates Universum data, which includes samples outside the target classes, to significantly improve generalization capabilities. Universum data enables the classifier to perform better on benchmark datasets, demonstrating the model's ability to utilize additional knowledge for more precise predictions. Refined Learning with Modified Hinge Loss Function: The model includes an advanced hinge loss function that accounts for the radii of granular balls, leading to a more accurate error measure and learning process. This modification allows for a detailed error assessment, enhancing the model's learning efficiency and decision boundary precision. By addressing the limitations of existing TSVM models, this innovation sets a new benchmark in the field of machine learning classifiers.


On Approximability of $\ell_2^2$ Min-Sum Clustering

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The $\ell_2^2$ min-sum $k$-clustering problem is to partition an input set into clusters $C_1,\ldots,C_k$ to minimize $\sum_{i=1}^k\sum_{p,q\in C_i}\|p-q\|_2^2$. Although $\ell_2^2$ min-sum $k$-clustering is NP-hard, it is not known whether it is NP-hard to approximate $\ell_2^2$ min-sum $k$-clustering beyond a certain factor. In this paper, we give the first hardness-of-approximation result for the $\ell_2^2$ min-sum $k$-clustering problem. We show that it is NP-hard to approximate the objective to a factor better than $1.056$ and moreover, assuming a balanced variant of the Johnson Coverage Hypothesis, it is NP-hard to approximate the objective to a factor better than 1.327. We then complement our hardness result by giving the first $(1+\varepsilon)$-coreset construction for $\ell_2^2$ min-sum $k$-clustering. Our coreset uses $\mathcal{O}\left(k^{\varepsilon^{-4}}\right)$ space and can be leveraged to achieve a polynomial-time approximation scheme with runtime $nd\cdot f(k,\varepsilon^{-1})$, where $d$ is the underlying dimension of the input dataset and $f$ is a fixed function. Finally, we consider a learning-augmented setting, where the algorithm has access to an oracle that outputs a label $i\in[k]$ for input point, thereby implicitly partitioning the input dataset into $k$ clusters that induce an approximately optimal solution, up to some amount of adversarial error $\alpha\in\left[0,\frac{1}{2}\right)$. We give a polynomial-time algorithm that outputs a $\frac{1+\gamma\alpha}{(1-\alpha)^2}$-approximation to $\ell_2^2$ min-sum $k$-clustering, for a fixed constant $\gamma>0$.


Dynamic Consistent $k$-Center Clustering with Optimal Recourse

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Given points from an arbitrary metric space and a sequence of point updates sent by an adversary, what is the minimum recourse per update (i.e., the minimum number of changes needed to the set of centers after an update), in order to maintain a constant-factor approximation to a $k$-clustering problem? This question has received attention in recent years under the name consistent clustering. Previous works by Lattanzi and Vassilvitskii [ICLM '17] and Fichtenberger, Lattanzi, Norouzi-Fard, and Svensson [SODA '21] studied $k$-clustering objectives, including the $k$-center and the $k$-median objectives, under only point insertions. In this paper we study the $k$-center objective in the fully dynamic setting, where the update is either a point insertion or a point deletion. Before our work, {\L}\k{a}cki, Haeupler, Grunau, Rozho\v{n}, and Jayaram [SODA '24] gave a deterministic fully dynamic constant-factor approximation algorithm for the $k$-center objective with worst-case recourse of $2$ per update. In this work, we prove that the $k$-center clustering problem admits optimal recourse bounds by developing a deterministic fully dynamic constant-factor approximation algorithm with worst-case recourse of $1$ per update. Moreover our algorithm performs simple choices based on light data structures, and thus is arguably more direct and faster than the previous one which uses a sophisticated combinatorial structure. Additionally, we develop a new deterministic decremental algorithm and a new deterministic incremental algorithm, both of which maintain a $6$-approximate $k$-center solution with worst-case recourse of $1$ per update. Our incremental algorithm improves over the $8$-approximation algorithm by Charikar, Chekuri, Feder, and Motwani [STOC '97]. Finally, we remark that since all three of our algorithms are deterministic, they work against an adaptive adversary.