Large language model (LLM) evaluation is increasingly costly, prompting interest in methods that speed up evaluation by shrinking benchmark datasets. Benchmark prediction (also called efficient LLM evaluation) aims to select a small subset of evaluation points and predict overall benchmark performance from that subset. In this paper, we systematically assess the strengths and limitations of 11 benchmark prediction methods across 19 diverse benchmarks. First, we identify a highly competitive baseline: Take a random sample and fit a regression model on the sample to predict missing entries. Outperforming most existing methods, this baseline challenges the assumption that careful subset selection is necessary for benchmark prediction.

Tabular datasets are inherently heterogeneous, presenting significant challenges for developing pre-trained foundation models. The recently introduced transformerbased Tabular Prior-data Fitted Network v2 (TabPFN v2) achieves unprecedented in-context learning performance across diverse downstream datasets, marking a pivotal advancement in tabular foundation models. In this paper, we take a closer look at TabPFN v2 to examine how it effectively handles heterogeneity and achieves high predictive accuracy, and to explore how its limitations in high-dimensional, many-category, and large-scale tasks can be mitigated. We find that TabPFN v2 can infer attribute relationships even when provided with randomized attribute token inputs, eliminating the need to explicitly learn dataset-specific attribute embeddings to address heterogeneity. We further show that TabPFN v2 can be transformed into a feature extractor, revealing its ability to construct a highly separable feature space for accurate predictions. Lastly, we demonstrate that TabPFN v2's limitations can be addressed through a test-time divide-and-conquer strategy, enabling scalable inference without requiring re-training. By uncovering the mechanisms behind TabPFN v2's success and introducing strategies to extend its applicability, this study offers key insights into the design of future tabular foundation models.

VVideoidelaro Inputge language models (video LLMs) excel at video comprehension but face Vision Encodersignificant computational inefficiency due to redundant video tokens.

Temporal Graph Learning (TGL) aims to discover patterns in evolving networks or temporal graphs and leverage these patterns to predict future interactions. However, most existing research focuses on learning from a single network in isolation, leaving the challenges of within-domain and cross-domain generalization largely unaddressed. In this study, we introduce a new benchmark of 84 real-world temporal transaction networks and propose Temporal Multi-network Transfer (MiNT), a pre-training framework designed to capture transferable temporal dynamics across diverse networks. We train MiNT models on up to 64 transaction networks and evaluate their generalization ability on 20 held-out, unseen networks. Our results show that MiNT consistently outperforms individually trained models, revealing a strong relation between the number of pre-training networks and transfer performance. These findings highlight scaling trends in temporal graph learning and underscore the importance of network diversity in improving generalization. This work establishes the first large-scale benchmark for studying transferability in TGL and lays the groundwork for developing Temporal Graph Foundation Models.

We introduce TAPIP3D, a novel approach for long-term 3D point tracking in monocular RGB and RGB-D videos. TAPIP3D represents videos as camerastabilized spatio-temporal feature clouds, leveraging depth and camera motion information to lift 2D video features into a 3D world space where camera movement is effectively canceled out. Within this stabilized 3D representation, TAPIP3D iteratively refines multi-frame motion estimates, enabling robust point tracking over long time horizons.

Estimating associations between spatial covariates and responses -- rather than merely predicting responses -- is central to environmental science, epidemiology, and economics. For instance, public health officials might be interested in whether air pollution has a strictly positive association with a health outcome, and the magnitude of any effect. Standard machine learning methods often provide accurate predictions but offer limited insight into covariate-response relationships. And we show that existing methods for constructing confidence (or credible) intervals for associations can fail to provide nominal coverage in the face of model misspecification and nonrandom locations -- despite both being essentially always present in spatial problems. We introduce a method that constructs valid frequentist confidence intervals for associations in spatial settings. Our method requires minimal assumptions beyond a form of spatial smoothness and a homoskedastic Gaussian error assumption. In particular, we do not require model correctness or covariate overlap between training and target locations. Our approach is the first to guarantee nominal coverage in this setting and outperforms existing techniques in both real and simulated experiments. Our confidence intervals are valid in finite samples when the noise of the Gaussian error is known, and we provide an asymptotically consistent estimation procedure for this noise variance when it is unknown.

We propose a novel online Gaussian process (GP) model that is capable of capturing long-term memory in sequential data in an online learning setting. Our model, Online HiPPO Sparse Variational Gaussian Process (OHSVGP), leverages the HiPPO (High-order Polynomial Projection Operators) framework, which is popularized in the RNN domain due to its long-range memory modeling capabilities. We interpret the HiPPO time-varying orthogonal projections as inducing variables with timedependent orthogonal polynomial basis functions, which allows the SVGP inducing variables to memorize the process history. We show that the HiPPO framework fits naturally into the interdomain GP framework and demonstrate that the kernel matrices can also be updated online in a recurrence form based on the ODE evolution of HiPPO. We evaluate OHSVGP with online prediction for 1D time series, continual learning in discriminative GP model for data with multidimensional inputs, and deep generative modeling with sparse Gaussian process variational autoencoder, showing that it outperforms existing online GP methods in terms of predictive performance, long-term memory preservation, and computational efficiency.

Spectral reconstruction from RGB images often suffers from a metameric dilemma, where distinct spectral distributions map to nearly identical RGB values, making them indistinguishable to current models and leading to unreliable reconstructions.

This paper is concerned with online time series forecasting, where unknown distribution shifts occur over time, i.e., latent variables influence the mapping from historical to future observations. To develop an automated way of online time series forecasting, we propose a Theoretical framework for Online Time-series forecasting (TOT in short) with theoretical guarantees. Specifically, we prove that supplying a forecaster with latent variables tightens the Bayes risk--the benefit endures under estimation uncertainty of latent variables and grows as the latent variables achieve a more precise identifiability. To better introduce latent variables into online forecasting algorithms, we further propose to identify latent variables with minimal adjacent observations. Based on these results, we devise a modelagnostic blueprint by employing a temporal decoder to match the distribution of observed variables and two independent noise estimators to model the causal inference of latent variables and mixing procedures of observed variables, respectively. Experiment results on synthetic data support our theoretical claims. Moreover, plugin implementations built on several baselines yield general improvement across multiple benchmarks, highlighting the effectiveness in real-world applications.

This work addresses the finite-time analysis of nonsmooth nonconvex stochastic optimization under Riemannian manifold constraints. We adapt the notion of Goldstein stationarity to the Riemannian setting as a performance metric for nonsmooth optimization on manifolds. We then propose a Riemannian Online to NonConvex (RO2NC) algorithm, for which we establish the sample complexity of O(ϵ 3δ 1)in finding (δ,ϵ)-stationary points. This result is the first-ever finite-time guarantee for fully nonsmooth, nonconvex optimization on manifolds and matches the optimal complexity in the Euclidean setting. When gradient information is unavailable, we develop a zeroth order version of RO2NC algorithm (ZO-RO2NC), for which we establish the same sample complexity. The numerical results support the theory and demonstrate the practical effectiveness of the algorithms.