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 Statistical Learning


Efficient Task Grouping Through Samplewise Optimisation Landscape Analysis

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Shared training approaches, such as multi-task learning (MTL) and gradient-based meta-learning, are widely used in various machine learning applications, but they often suffer from negative transfer, leading to performance degradation in specific tasks. While several optimisation techniques have been developed to mitigate this issue for pre-selected task cohorts, identifying optimal task combinations for joint learning - known as task grouping - remains underexplored and computationally challenging due to the exponential growth in task combinations and the need for extensive training and evaluation cycles. This paper introduces an efficient task grouping framework designed to reduce these overwhelming computational demands of the existing methods. The proposed framework infers pairwise task similarities through a sample-wise optimisation landscape analysis, eliminating the need for the shared model training required to infer task similarities in existing methods. With task similarities acquired, a graph-based clustering algorithm is employed to pinpoint near-optimal task groups, providing an approximate yet efficient and effective solution to the originally NP-hard problem. Empirical assessments conducted on 8 different datasets highlight the effectiveness of the proposed framework, revealing a five-fold speed enhancement compared to previous state-of-the-art methods. Moreover, the framework consistently demonstrates comparable performance, confirming its remarkable efficiency and effectiveness in task grouping.


Enhancing operational wind downscaling capabilities over Canada: Application of a Conditional Wasserstein GAN methodology

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Wind downscaling is essential for improving the spatial resolution of weather forecasts, particularly in operational Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP). This study advances wind downscaling by extending the DownGAN framework introduced by Annau et al.,to operational datasets from the Global Deterministic Prediction System (GDPS) and High-Resolution Deterministic Prediction System (HRDPS), covering the entire Canadian domain. We enhance the model by incorporating high-resolution static covariates, such as HRDPS-derived topography, into a Conditional Wasserstein Generative Adversarial Network with Gradient Penalty, implemented using a UNET-based generator. Following the DownGAN framework, our methodology integrates low-resolution GDPS forecasts (15 km, 10-day horizon) and high-resolution HRDPS forecasts (2.5 km, 48-hour horizon) with Frequency Separation techniques adapted from computer vision. Through robust training and inference over the Canadian region, we demonstrate the operational scalability of our approach, achieving significant improvements in wind downscaling accuracy. Statistical validation highlights reductions in root mean square error (RMSE) and log spectral distance (LSD) metrics compared to the original DownGAN. High-resolution conditioning covariates and Frequency Separation strategies prove instrumental in enhancing model performance. This work underscores the potential for extending high-resolution wind forecasts beyond the 48-hour horizon, bridging the gap to the 10-day low resolution global forecast window.


Representational Transfer Learning for Matrix Completion

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We propose to transfer representational knowledge from multiple sources to a target noisy matrix completion task by aggregating singular subspaces information. Under our representational similarity framework, we first integrate linear representation information by solving a two-way principal component analysis problem based on a properly debiased matrix-valued dataset. After acquiring better column and row representation estimators from the sources, the original high-dimensional target matrix completion problem is then transformed into a low-dimensional linear regression, of which the statistical efficiency is guaranteed. A variety of extensional arguments, including post-transfer statistical inference and robustness against negative transfer, are also discussed alongside. Finally, extensive simulation results and a number of real data cases are reported to support our claims.


Measuring Pre-training Data Quality without Labels for Time Series Foundation Models

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Recently, there has been a growing interest in time series foundation models that generalize across different downstream tasks. A key to strong foundation models is a diverse pre-training dataset, which is particularly challenging to collect for time series classification. In this work, we explore the performance of a contrastive-learning-based foundation model as a function of the data used for pre-training. We introduce contrastive accuracy, a new measure to evaluate the quality of the representation space learned by the foundation model. Our experiments reveal the positive correlation between the proposed measure and the accuracy of the model on a collection of downstream tasks. This suggests that the contrastive accuracy can serve as a criterion to search for time series datasets that can enhance the pre-training and improve thereby the foundation model's generalization.


Automatic Doubly Robust Forests

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper proposes the automatic Doubly Robust Random Forest (DRRF) algorithm for estimating the conditional expectation of a moment functional in the presence of high-dimensional nuisance functions. DRRF combines the automatic debiasing framework using the Riesz representer (Chernozhukov et al., 2022) with non-parametric, forest-based estimation methods for the conditional moment (Athey et al., 2019; Oprescu et al., 2019). In contrast to existing methods, DRRF does not require prior knowledge of the form of the debiasing term nor impose restrictive parametric or semi-parametric assumptions on the target quantity. Additionally, it is computationally efficient for making predictions at multiple query points and significantly reduces runtime compared to methods such as Orthogonal Random Forest (Oprescu et al., 2019). We establish the consistency and asymptotic normality results of DRRF estimator under general assumptions, allowing for the construction of valid confidence intervals. Through extensive simulations in heterogeneous treatment effect (HTE) estimation, we demonstrate the superior performance of DRRF over benchmark approaches in terms of estimation accuracy, robustness, and computational efficiency.


When Dimensionality Reduction Meets Graph (Drawing) Theory: Introducing a Common Framework, Challenges and Opportunities

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In the vast landscape of visualization research, Dimensionality Reduction (DR) and graph analysis are two popular subfields, often essential to most visual data analytics setups. DR aims to create representations to support neighborhood and similarity analysis on complex, large datasets. Graph analysis focuses on identifying the salient topological properties and key actors within networked data, with specialized research on investigating how such features could be presented to the user to ease the comprehension of the underlying structure. Although these two disciplines are typically regarded as disjoint subfields, we argue that both fields share strong similarities and synergies that can potentially benefit both. Therefore, this paper discusses and introduces a unifying framework to help bridge the gap between DR and graph (drawing) theory. Our goal is to use the strongly math-grounded graph theory to improve the overall process of creating DR visual representations. We propose how to break the DR process into well-defined stages, discussing how to match some of the DR state-of-the-art techniques to this framework and presenting ideas on how graph drawing, topology features, and some popular algorithms and strategies used in graph analysis can be employed to improve DR topology extraction, embedding generation, and result validation. We also discuss the challenges and identify opportunities for implementing and using our framework, opening directions for future visualization research.


FabuLight-ASD: Unveiling Speech Activity via Body Language

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Active speaker detection (ASD) in multimodal environments is crucial for various applications, from video conferencing to human-robot interaction. This paper introduces FabuLight-ASD, an advanced ASD model that integrates facial, audio, and body pose information to enhance detection accuracy and robustness. Our model builds upon the existing Light-ASD framework by incorporating human pose data, represented through skeleton graphs, which minimises computational overhead. Using the Wilder Active Speaker Detection (WASD) dataset, renowned for reliable face and body bounding box annotations, we demonstrate FabuLight-ASD's effectiveness in real-world scenarios. Achieving an overall mean average precision (mAP) of 94.3%, FabuLight-ASD outperforms Light-ASD, which has an overall mAP of 93.7% across various challenging scenarios. The incorporation of body pose information shows a particularly advantageous impact, with notable improvements in mAP observed in scenarios with speech impairment, face occlusion, and human voice background noise. Furthermore, efficiency analysis indicates only a modest increase in parameter count (27.3%) and multiply-accumulate operations (up to 2.4%), underscoring the model's efficiency and feasibility. These findings validate the efficacy of FabuLight-ASD in enhancing ASD performance through the integration of body pose data. FabuLight-ASD's code and model weights are available at https://github.com/knowledgetechnologyuhh/FabuLight-ASD.


Unseen Attack Detection in Software-Defined Networking Using a BERT-Based Large Language Model

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Software defined networking (SDN) represents a transformative shift in network architecture by decoupling the control plane from the data plane, enabling centralized and flexible management of network resources. However, this architectural shift introduces significant security challenges, as SDN's centralized control becomes an attractive target for various types of attacks. While current research has yielded valuable insights into attack detection in SDN, critical gaps remain. Addressing challenges in feature selection, broadening the scope beyond DDoS attacks, strengthening attack decisions based on multi flow analysis, and building models capable of detecting unseen attacks that they have not been explicitly trained on are essential steps toward advancing security in SDN. In this paper, we introduce a novel approach that leverages Natural Language Processing (NLP) and the pre trained BERT base model to enhance attack detection in SDN. Our approach transforms network flow data into a format interpretable by language models, allowing BERT to capture intricate patterns and relationships within network traffic. By using Random Forest for feature selection, we optimize model performance and reduce computational overhead, ensuring accurate detection. Attack decisions are made based on several flows, providing stronger and more reliable detection of malicious traffic. Furthermore, our approach is specifically designed to detect previously unseen attacks, offering a solution for identifying threats that the model was not explicitly trained on. To rigorously evaluate our approach, we conducted experiments in two scenarios: one focused on detecting known attacks, achieving 99.96% accuracy, and another on detecting unseen attacks, where our model achieved 99.96% accuracy, demonstrating the robustness of our approach in detecting evolving threats to improve the security of SDN networks.


Table2Image: Interpretable Tabular data Classification with Realistic Image Transformations

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Recent advancements in deep learning for tabular data have demonstrated promising performance, yet interpretable models remain limited, with many relying on complex and large-scale architectures. This paper introduces Table2Image, an interpretable framework that transforms tabular data into realistic image representations for classification, achieving competitive performance with relatively lightweight models. Additionally, we propose variance inflation factor (VIF) initialization, which reflects the statistical properties of the data, and a novel interpretability framework that integrates insights from both the original tabular data and its image transformations. By leveraging Shapley additive explanations (SHAP) with methods to minimize distributional discrepancies, our approach combines tabular and image-based representations. Experiments on benchmark datasets showcase competitive classification accuracy, area under the curve (AUC), and improved interpretability, offering a scalable and reliable solution. Our code is available at https://github.com/duneag2/table2image.


Generator Matching: Generative modeling with arbitrary Markov processes

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We introduce generator matching, a modality-agnostic framework for generative modeling using arbitrary Markov processes. Generators characterize the infinitesimal evolution of a Markov process, which we leverage for generative modeling in a similar vein to flow matching: we construct conditional generators which generate single data points, then learn to approximate the marginal generator which generates the full data distribution. We show that generator matching unifies various generative modeling methods, including diffusion models, flow matching and discrete diffusion models. Furthermore, it provides the foundation to expand the design space to new and unexplored Markov processes such as jump processes. Finally, generator matching enables the construction of superpositions of Markov generative processes and enables the construction of multimodal models in a rigorous manner. We empirically validate our method on protein and image structure generation, showing that superposition with a jump process improves image generation.