Gravitational-wave observatories like LIGO are large-scale, terrestrial instruments housed in infrastructure that spans a multi-kilometer geographic area and which must be actively controlled to maintain operational stability for long observation periods. Despite exquisite seismic isolation, they remain susceptible to seismic noise and other terrestrial disturbances that can couple undesirable vibrations into the instrumental infrastructure, potentially leading to control instabilities or noise artifacts in the detector output. It is, therefore, critical to characterize the seismic state of these observatories to identify a set of temporal patterns that can inform the detector operators in day-to-day monitoring and diagnostics. On a day-to-day basis, the operators monitor several seismically relevant data streams to diagnose operational instabilities and sources of noise using some simple empirically-determined thresholds. It can be untenable for a human operator to monitor multiple data streams in this manual fashion and thus a distillation of these data-streams into a more human-friendly format is sought. In this paper, we present an end-to-end machine learning pipeline for features-based multivariate time series clustering to achieve this goal and to provide actionable insights to the detector operators by correlating found clusters with events of interest in the detector.

Data-driven models, in general, and machine learning (ML) models, in particular, have gained popularity over recent years with an increased usage of such models across the scientific and engineering domains. When using ML models in realistic and dynamic environments, users need to often handle the challenge of concept drift (CD). In this study, we explore the application of genetic algorithms (GAs) to address the challenges posed by CD in such settings. We propose a novel two-level ensemble ML model, which combines a global ML model with a CD detector, operating as an aggregator for a population of ML pipeline models, each one with an adjusted CD detector by itself responsible for re-training its ML model. In addition, we show one can further improve the proposed model by utilizing off-the-shelf automatic ML methods. Through extensive synthetic dataset analysis, we show that the proposed model outperforms a single ML pipeline with a CD algorithm, particularly in scenarios with unknown CD characteristics. Overall, this study highlights the potential of ensemble ML and CD models obtained through a heuristic and adaptive optimization process such as the GA one to handle complex CD events.

This work revisits the classical low-rank matrix factorization problem and unveils the critical role of initialization in shaping convergence rates for such nonconvex and nonsmooth optimization. We introduce Nystrom initialization, which significantly improves the global convergence of Scaled Gradient Descent (ScaledGD) in both symmetric and asymmetric matrix factorization tasks. Specifically, we prove that ScaledGD with Nystrom initialization achieves quadratic convergence in cases where only linear rates were previously known. Furthermore, we extend this initialization to low-rank adapters (LoRA) commonly used for finetuning foundation models. Our approach, NoRA, i.e., LoRA with Nystrom initialization, demonstrates superior performance across various downstream tasks and model scales, from 1B to 7B parameters, in large language and diffusion models.

Neural-network-based dynamics models learned from observational data have shown strong predictive capabilities for scene dynamics in robotic manipulation tasks. However, their inherent non-linearity presents significant challenges for effective planning. Current planning methods, often dependent on extensive sampling or local gradient descent, struggle with long-horizon motion planning tasks involving complex contact events. In this paper, we present a GPU-accelerated branch-and-bound (BaB) framework for motion planning in manipulation tasks that require trajectory optimization over neural dynamics models. Our approach employs a specialized branching heuristics to divide the search space into subdomains, and applies a modified bound propagation method, inspired by the state-of-the-art neural network verifier alpha-beta-CROWN, to efficiently estimate objective bounds within these subdomains. The branching process guides planning effectively, while the bounding process strategically reduces the search space. Our framework achieves superior planning performance, generating high-quality state-action trajectories and surpassing existing methods in challenging, contact-rich manipulation tasks such as non-prehensile planar pushing with obstacles, object sorting, and rope routing in both simulated and real-world settings. Furthermore, our framework supports various neural network architectures, ranging from simple multilayer perceptrons to advanced graph neural dynamics models, and scales efficiently with different model sizes.

Machine unlearning, the process of selectively removing data from trained models, is increasingly crucial for addressing privacy concerns and knowledge gaps post-deployment. Despite this importance, existing approaches are often heuristic and lack formal guarantees. In this paper, we analyze the fundamental utility, time, and space complexity trade-offs of approximate unlearning, providing rigorous certification analogous to differential privacy. For in-distribution forget data -- data similar to the retain set -- we show that a surprisingly simple and general procedure, empirical risk minimization with output perturbation, achieves tight unlearning-utility-complexity trade-offs, addressing a previous theoretical gap on the separation from unlearning "for free" via differential privacy, which inherently facilitates the removal of such data. However, such techniques fail with out-of-distribution forget data -- data significantly different from the retain set -- where unlearning time complexity can exceed that of retraining, even for a single sample. To address this, we propose a new robust and noisy gradient descent variant that provably amortizes unlearning time complexity without compromising utility.

We construct a surrogate loss to directly optimise the significance metric used in particle physics. We evaluate our loss function for a simple event classification task using a linear model and show that it produces decision boundaries that change according to the cross sections of the processes involved. We find that the models trained with the new loss have higher signal efficiency for similar values of estimated signal significance compared to ones trained with a cross-entropy loss, showing promise to improve sensitivity of particle physics searches at colliders.

In the field of continual learning, relying on so-called oracles for novelty detection is commonplace albeit unrealistic. This paper introduces CONCLAD ("COntinuous Novel CLAss Detector"), a comprehensive solution to the under-explored problem of continual novel class detection in post-deployment data. At each new task, our approach employs an iterative uncertainty estimation algorithm to differentiate between known and novel class(es) samples, and to further discriminate between the different novel classes themselves. Samples predicted to be from a novel class with high-confidence are automatically pseudo-labeled and used to update our model. Simultaneously, a tiny supervision budget is used to iteratively query ambiguous novel class predictions, which are also used during update. Evaluation across multiple datasets, ablations and experimental settings demonstrate our method's effectiveness at separating novel and old class samples continuously. We will release our code upon acceptance.

By learning the gradient of smoothed data distributions, diffusion models can iteratively generate samples from complex distributions. The learned score function enables their generalization capabilities, but how the learned score relates to the score of the underlying data manifold remains largely unclear. Here, we aim to elucidate this relationship by comparing learned neural scores to the scores of two kinds of analytically tractable distributions: Gaussians and Gaussian mixtures. The simplicity of the Gaussian model makes it theoretically attractive, and we show that it admits a closed-form solution and predicts many qualitative aspects of sample generation dynamics. We claim that the learned neural score is dominated by its linear (Gaussian) approximation for moderate to high noise scales, and supply both theoretical and empirical arguments to support this claim. Moreover, the Gaussian approximation empirically works for a larger range of noise scales than naive theory suggests it should, and is preferentially learned early in training. At smaller noise scales, we observe that learned scores are better described by a coarse-grained (Gaussian mixture) approximation of training data than by the score of the training distribution, a finding consistent with generalization. Our findings enable us to precisely predict the initial phase of trained models' sampling trajectories through their Gaussian approximations. We show that this allows the skipping of the first 15-30% of sampling steps while maintaining high sample quality (with a near state-of-the-art FID score of 1.93 on CIFAR-10 unconditional generation). This forms the foundation of a novel hybrid sampling method, termed analytical teleportation, which can seamlessly integrate with and accelerate existing samplers, including DPM-Solver-v3 and UniPC. Our findings suggest ways to improve the design and training of diffusion models.

The credit spread is a key indicator in bond investments, offering valuable insights for fixed-income investors to devise effective trading strategies. This study proposes a novel credit spread forecasting model leveraging ensemble learning techniques. To enhance predictive accuracy, a feature selection method based on mutual information is incorporated. Empirical results demonstrate that the proposed methodology delivers superior accuracy in credit spread predictions. Additionally, we present a forecast of future credit spread trends using current data, providing actionable insights for investment decisionmaking. Credit spread has long been a critical focus for investors, particularly in the context of investment-grade corporate bonds, which have garnered even greater attention.

This research presents preliminary work to address the challenge of identifying at-risk students using supervised machine learning and three unique data categories: engagement, demographics, and performance data collected from Fall 2023 using Canvas and the California State University, Fullerton dashboard. We aim to tackle the persistent challenges of higher education retention and student dropout rates by screening for at-risk students and building a high-risk identification system. By focusing on previously overlooked behavioral factors alongside traditional metrics, this work aims to address educational gaps, enhance student outcomes, and significantly boost student success across disciplines at the University. Pre-processing steps take place to establish a target variable, anonymize student information, manage missing data, and identify the most significant features. Given the mixed data types in the datasets and the binary classification nature of this study, this work considers several machine learning models, including Support Vector Machines (SVM), Naive Bayes, K-nearest neighbors (KNN), Decision Trees, Logistic Regression, and Random Forest. These models predict at-risk students and identify critical periods of the semester when student performance is most vulnerable. We will use validation techniques such as train test split and k-fold cross-validation to ensure the reliability of the models. Our analysis indicates that all algorithms generate an acceptable outcome for at-risk student predictions, while Naive Bayes performs best overall.