Statistical Learning
GeoConformal prediction: a model-agnostic framework of measuring the uncertainty of spatial prediction
Lou, Xiayin, Luo, Peng, Meng, Liqiu
Spatial prediction is a fundamental task in geography. In recent years, with advances in geospatial artificial intelligence (GeoAI), numerous models have been developed to improve the accuracy of geographic variable predictions. Beyond achieving higher accuracy, it is equally important to obtain predictions with uncertainty measures to enhance model credibility and support responsible spatial prediction. Although geostatistic methods like Kriging offer some level of uncertainty assessment, such as Kriging variance, these measurements are not always accurate and lack general applicability to other spatial models. To address this issue, we propose a model-agnostic uncertainty assessment method called GeoConformal Prediction, which incorporates geographical weighting into conformal prediction. We applied it to two classic spatial prediction cases, spatial regression and spatial interpolation, to evaluate its reliability. First, in the spatial regression case, we used XGBoost to predict housing prices, followed by GeoConformal to calculate uncertainty. Our results show that GeoConformal achieved a coverage rate of 93.67%, while Bootstrap methods only reached a maximum coverage of 81.00% after 2000 runs. Next, we applied GeoConformal to spatial interpolation models. We found that the uncertainty obtained from GeoConformal aligned closely with the variance in Kriging. Finally, using GeoConformal, we analyzed the sources of uncertainty in spatial prediction. We found that explicitly including local features in AI models can significantly reduce prediction uncertainty, especially in areas with strong local dependence. Our findings suggest that GeoConformal holds potential not only for geographic knowledge discovery but also for guiding the design of future GeoAI models, paving the way for more reliable and interpretable spatial prediction frameworks.
Memory-Efficient 4-bit Preconditioned Stochastic Optimization
Li, Jingyang, Ding, Kuangyu, Toh, Kim-Chuan, Zhou, Pan
Preconditioned stochastic optimization algorithms, exemplified by Shampoo, have demonstrated superior performance over first-order optimizers, providing both theoretical advantages in convergence rates and practical improvements in large-scale neural network training. However, they incur substantial memory overhead due to the storage demands of non-diagonal preconditioning matrices. To address this, we introduce 4-bit quantization for Shampoo's preconditioners. We introduced two key methods: First, we apply Cholesky decomposition followed by quantization of the Cholesky factors, reducing memory usage by leveraging their lower triangular structure while preserving symmetry and positive definiteness to minimize information loss. To our knowledge, this is the first quantization approach applied to Cholesky factors of preconditioners. Second, we incorporate error feedback in the quantization process, efficiently storing Cholesky factors and error states in the lower and upper triangular parts of the same matrix. Through extensive experiments, we demonstrate that combining Cholesky quantization with error feedback enhances memory efficiency and algorithm performance in large-scale deep-learning tasks. Theoretically, we also provide convergence proofs for quantized Shampoo under both smooth and non-smooth stochastic optimization settings.
Relation-Aware Equivariant Graph Networks for Epitope-Unknown Antibody Design and Specificity Optimization
Wu, Lirong, Lin, Haitao, Huang, Yufei, Gao, Zhangyang, Tan, Cheng, Liu, Yunfan, Wu, Tailin, Li, Stan Z.
Antibodies are Y-shaped proteins that protect the host by binding to specific antigens, and their binding is mainly determined by the Complementary Determining Regions (CDRs) in the antibody. Despite the great progress made in CDR design, existing computational methods still encounter several challenges: 1) poor capability of modeling complex CDRs with long sequences due to insufficient contextual information; 2) conditioned on pre-given antigenic epitopes and their static interaction with the target antibody; 3) neglect of specificity during antibody optimization leads to non-specific antibodies. In this paper, we take into account a variety of node features, edge features, and edge relations to include more contextual and geometric information. We propose a novel Relation-Aware Antibody Design (RAAD) framework, which dynamically models antigen-antibody interactions for co-designing the sequences and structures of antigen-specific CDRs. Furthermore, we propose a new evaluation metric to better measure antibody specificity and develop a contrasting specificity-enhancing constraint to optimize the specificity of antibodies. Extensive experiments have demonstrated the superior capability of RAAD in terms of antibody modeling, generation, and optimization across different CDR types, sequence lengths, pre-training strategies, and input contexts.
Adopting Explainable-AI to investigate the impact of urban morphology design on energy and environmental performance in dry-arid climates
Eshraghi, Pegah, Talami, Riccardo, Dehnavi, Arman Nikkhah, Mirdamadi, Maedeh, Zomorodian, Zahra-Sadat
In rapidly urbanizing regions, designing climate-responsive urban forms is crucial for sustainable development, especially in dry arid-climates where urban morphology has a significant impact on energy consumption and environmental performance. This study advances urban morphology evaluation by combining Urban Building Energy Modeling (UBEM) with machine learning methods (ML) and Explainable AI techniques, specifically Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP). Using Tehran's dense urban landscape as a case study, this research assesses and ranks the impact of 30 morphology parameters at the urban block level on key energy metrics (cooling, heating, and lighting demand) and environmental performance (sunlight exposure, photovoltaic generation, and Sky View Factor). Among seven ML algorithms evaluated, the XGBoost model was the most effective predictor, achieving high accuracy (R2: 0.92) and a training time of 3.64 seconds. Findings reveal that building shape, window-to-wall ratio, and commercial ratio are the most critical parameters affecting energy efficiency, while the heights and distances of neighboring buildings strongly influence cooling demand and solar access. By evaluating urban blocks with varied densities and configurations, this study offers generalizable insights applicable to other dry-arid regions. Moreover, the integration of UBEM and Explainable AI offers a scalable, data-driven framework for developing climate-responsive urban designs adaptable to high-density environments worldwide.
Predicting Internet Connectivity in Schools: A Feasibility Study Leveraging Multi-modal Data and Location Encoders in Low-Resource Settings
Doerksen, Kelsey, Fibaek, Casper, Schneider, Rochelle, Kim, Do-Hyung, Tingzon, Isabelle
Internet connectivity in schools is critical to provide students with the digital literary skills necessary to compete in modern economies. In order for governments to effectively implement digital infrastructure development in schools, accurate internet connectivity information is required. However, traditional survey-based methods can exceed the financial and capacity limits of governments. Open-source Earth Observation (EO) datasets have unlocked our ability to observe and understand socio-economic conditions on Earth from space, and in combination with Machine Learning (ML), can provide the tools to circumvent costly ground-based survey methods to support infrastructure development. In this paper, we present our work on school internet connectivity prediction using EO and ML. We detail the creation of our multi-modal, freely-available satellite imagery and survey information dataset, leverage the latest geographically-aware location encoders, and introduce the first results of using the new European Space Agency phi-lab geographically-aware foundational model to predict internet connectivity in Botswana and Rwanda. We find that ML with EO and ground-based auxiliary data yields the best performance in both countries, for accuracy, F1 score, and False Positive rates, and highlight the challenges of internet connectivity prediction from space with a case study in Kigali, Rwanda. Our work showcases a practical approach to support data-driven digital infrastructure development in low-resource settings, leveraging freely available information, and provide cleaned and labelled datasets for future studies to the community through a unique collaboration between UNICEF and the European Space Agency phi-lab.
DP-CDA: An Algorithm for Enhanced Privacy Preservation in Dataset Synthesis Through Randomized Mixing
Saha, Utsab, Tonoy, Tanvir Muntakim, Imtiaz, Hafiz
In recent years, the growth of data across various sectors, including healthcare, security, finance, and education, has created significant opportunities for analysis and informed decision-making. However, these datasets often contain sensitive and personal information, which raises serious privacy concerns. Protecting individual privacy is crucial, yet many existing machine learning and data publishing algorithms struggle with high-dimensional data, facing challenges related to computational efficiency and privacy preservation. To address these challenges, we introduce an effective data publishing algorithm \emph{DP-CDA}. Our proposed algorithm generates synthetic datasets by randomly mixing data in a class-specific manner, and inducing carefully-tuned randomness to ensure formal privacy guarantees. Our comprehensive privacy accounting shows that DP-CDA provides a stronger privacy guarantee compared to existing methods, allowing for better utility while maintaining strict level of privacy. To evaluate the effectiveness of DP-CDA, we examine the accuracy of predictive models trained on the synthetic data, which serves as a measure of dataset utility. Importantly, we identify an optimal order of mixing that balances privacy guarantee with predictive accuracy. Our results indicate that synthetic datasets produced using the DP-CDA can achieve superior utility compared to those generated by traditional data publishing algorithms, even when subject to the same privacy requirements.
Cardiovascular Disease Detection By Leveraging Semi-Supervised Learning
Chen, Shaohan, Liu, Zheyan, Zheng, Huili, Zhang, Qimin, Gong, Yiru
Cardiovascular disease (CVD) persists as a primary cause of death on a global scale, which requires more effective and timely detection methods. Traditional supervised learning approaches for CVD detection rely heavily on large-labeled datasets, which are often difficult to obtain. This paper employs semi-supervised learning models to boost efficiency and accuracy of CVD detection when there are few labeled samples. By leveraging both labeled and vast amounts of unlabeled data, our approach demonstrates improvements in prediction performance, while reducing the dependency on labeled data. Experimental results in a publicly available dataset show that semi-supervised models outperform traditional supervised learning techniques, providing an intriguing approach for the initial identification of cardiovascular disease within clinical environments.
NLP Cluster Analysis of Common Core State Standards and NAEP Item Specifications
Camilli, Gregory, Suter, Larry
Camilli (2024) proposed a methodology using natural language processing (NLP) to map the relationship of a set of content standards to item specifications. This study provided evidence that NLP can be used to improve the mapping process. As part of this investigation, the nominal classifications of standards and items specifications were used to examine construct equivalence. In the current paper, we determine the strength of empirical support for the semantic distinctiveness of these classifications, which are known as "domains" for Common Core standards, and "strands" for National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) item specifications. This is accomplished by separate k-means clustering for standards and specifications of their corresponding embedding vectors. We then briefly illustrate an application of these findings.
Performance evaluation of predictive AI models to support medical decisions: Overview and guidance
Van Calster, Ben, Collins, Gary S., Vickers, Andrew J., Wynants, Laure, Kerr, Kathleen F., Barreñada, Lasai, Varoquaux, Gael, Singh, Karandeep, Moons, Karel G. M., Hernandez-boussard, Tina, Timmerman, Dirk, Mclernon, David J., Van Smeden, Maarten, Steyerberg, Ewout W.
A myriad of measures to illustrate performance of predictive artificial intelligence (AI) models have been proposed in the literature. Selecting appropriate performance measures is essential for predictive AI models that are developed to be used in medical practice, because poorly performing models may harm patients and lead to increased costs. We aim to assess the merits of classic and contemporary performance measures when validating predictive AI models for use in medical practice. We focus on models with a binary outcome. We discuss 32 performance measures covering five performance domains (discrimination, calibration, overall, classification, and clinical utility) along with accompanying graphical assessments. The first four domains cover statistical performance, the fifth domain covers decision-analytic performance. We explain why two key characteristics are important when selecting which performance measures to assess: (1) whether the measure's expected value is optimized when it is calculated using the correct probabilities (i.e., a "proper" measure), and (2) whether they reflect either purely statistical performance or decision-analytic performance by properly considering misclassification costs. Seventeen measures exhibit both characteristics, fourteen measures exhibited one characteristic, and one measure possessed neither characteristic (the F1 measure). All classification measures (such as classification accuracy and F1) are improper for clinically relevant decision thresholds other than 0.5 or the prevalence. We recommend the following measures and plots as essential to report: AUROC, calibration plot, a clinical utility measure such as net benefit with decision curve analysis, and a plot with probability distributions per outcome category.
First Train to Generate, then Generate to Train: UnitedSynT5 for Few-Shot NLI
Banerjee, Sourav, Mahajan, Anush, Agarwal, Ayushi, Singh, Eishkaran
Natural Language Inference (NLI) tasks require identifying the relationship between sentence pairs, typically classified as entailment, contradiction, or neutrality. While the current state-of-the-art (SOTA) model, Entailment Few-Shot Learning (EFL), achieves a 93.1% accuracy on the Stanford Natural Language Inference (SNLI) dataset, further advancements are constrained by the dataset's limitations. To address this, we propose a novel approach leveraging synthetic data augmentation to enhance dataset diversity and complexity. We present UnitedSynT5, an advanced extension of EFL that leverages a T5-based generator to synthesize additional premise-hypothesis pairs, which are rigorously cleaned and integrated into the training data. These augmented examples are processed within the EFL framework, embedding labels directly into hypotheses for consistency. We train a GTR-T5-XL model on this expanded dataset, achieving a new benchmark of 94.7% accuracy on the SNLI dataset, 94.0% accuracy on the E-SNLI dataset, and 92.6% accuracy on the MultiNLI dataset, surpassing the previous SOTA models. This research demonstrates the potential of synthetic data augmentation in improving NLI models, offering a path forward for further advancements in natural language understanding tasks.