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 Statistical Learning


TAACKIT: Track Annotation and Analytics with Continuous Knowledge Integration Tool

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Machine learning (ML) is a powerful tool for efficiently analyzing data, detecting patterns, and forecasting trends across various domains such as text, audio, and images. The availability of annotation tools to generate reliably annotated data is crucial for advances in ML applications. In the domain of geospatial tracks, the lack of such tools to annotate and validate data impedes rapid and accessible ML application development. This paper presents Track Annotation and Analytics with Continuous Knowledge Integration Tool (TAACKIT) to serve the critically important functions of annotating geospatial track data and validating ML models. We demonstrate an ML application use case in the air traffic domain to illustrate its data annotation and model evaluation power and quantify the annotation effort reduction.


Nonstationary Sparse Spectral Permanental Process

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Existing permanental processes often impose constraints on kernel types or stationarity, limiting the model's expressiveness. To overcome these limitations, we propose a novel approach utilizing the sparse spectral representation of nonstationary kernels. This technique relaxes the constraints on kernel types and stationarity, allowing for more flexible modeling while reducing computational complexity to the linear level. Additionally, we introduce a deep kernel variant by hierarchically stacking multiple spectral feature mappings, further enhancing the model's expressiveness to capture complex patterns in data. Experimental results on both synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach, particularly in scenarios with pronounced data nonstationarity. Additionally, ablation studies are conducted to provide insights into the impact of various hyperparameters on model performance.


Dual Interpretation of Machine Learning Forecasts

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Machine learning predictions are typically interpreted as the sum of contributions of predictors. Yet, each out-of-sample prediction can also be expressed as a linear combination of in-sample values of the predicted variable, with weights corresponding to pairwise proximity scores between current and past economic events. While this dual route leads nowhere in some contexts (e.g., large cross-sectional datasets), it provides sparser interpretations in settings with many regressors and little training data-like macroeconomic forecasting. In this case, the sequence of contributions can be visualized as a time series, allowing analysts to explain predictions as quantifiable combinations of historical analogies. Moreover, the weights can be viewed as those of a data portfolio, inspiring new diagnostic measures such as forecast concentration, short position, and turnover. We show how weights can be retrieved seamlessly for (kernel) ridge regression, random forest, boosted trees, and neural networks. Then, we apply these tools to analyze post-pandemic forecasts of inflation, GDP growth, and recession probabilities. In all cases, the approach opens the black box from a new angle and demonstrates how machine learning models leverage history partly repeating itself.


On the Impact of Hard Adversarial Instances on Overfitting in Adversarial Training

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Adversarial training is a popular method to robustify models against adversarial attacks. However, it exhibits much more severe overfitting than training on clean inputs. In this work, we investigate this phenomenon from the perspective of training instances, i.e., training input-target pairs. Based on a quantitative metric measuring the relative difficulty of an instance in the training set, we analyze the model's behavior on training instances of different difficulty levels. This lets us demonstrate that the decay in generalization performance of adversarial training is a result of fitting hard adversarial instances. We theoretically verify our observations for both linear and general nonlinear models, proving that models trained on hard instances have worse generalization performance than ones trained on easy instances, and that this generalization gap increases with the size of the adversarial budget. Finally, we investigate solutions to mitigate adversarial overfitting in several scenarios, including fast adversarial training and fine-tuning a pretrained model with additional data. Our results demonstrate that using training data adaptively improves the model's robustness.


Causal Invariance Learning via Efficient Optimization of a Nonconvex Objective

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Data from multiple environments offer valuable opportunities to uncover causal relationships among variables. Leveraging the assumption that the causal outcome model remains invariant across heterogeneous environments, state-of-the-art methods attempt to identify causal outcome models by learning invariant prediction models and rely on exhaustive searches over all (exponentially many) covariate subsets. These approaches present two major challenges: 1) determining the conditions under which the invariant prediction model aligns with the causal outcome model, and 2) devising computationally efficient causal discovery algorithms that scale polynomially, instead of exponentially, with the number of covariates. To address both challenges, we focus on the additive intervention regime and propose nearly necessary and sufficient conditions for ensuring that the invariant prediction model matches the causal outcome model. Exploiting the essentially necessary identifiability conditions, we introduce Negative Weight Distributionally Robust Optimization (NegDRO), a nonconvex continuous minimax optimization whose global optimizer recovers the causal outcome model. Unlike standard group DRO problems that maximize over the simplex, NegDRO allows negative weights on environment losses, which break the convexity. Despite its nonconvexity, we demonstrate that a standard gradient method converges to the causal outcome model, and we establish the convergence rate with respect to the sample size and the number of iterations. Our algorithm avoids exhaustive search, making it scalable especially when the number of covariates is large. The numerical results further validate the efficiency of the proposed method.


Communication-Efficient Personalized Federal Graph Learning via Low-Rank Decomposition

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Federated graph learning (FGL) has gained significant attention for enabling heterogeneous clients to process their private graph data locally while interacting with a centralized server, thus maintaining privacy. However, graph data on clients are typically non-IID, posing a challenge for a single model to perform well across all clients. Another major bottleneck of FGL is the high cost of communication. To address these challenges, we propose a communication-efficient personalized federated graph learning algorithm, CEFGL. Our method decomposes the model parameters into low-rank generic and sparse private models. We employ a dual-channel encoder to learn sparse local knowledge in a personalized manner and low-rank global knowledge in a shared manner. Additionally, we perform multiple local stochastic gradient descent iterations between communication phases and integrate efficient compression techniques into the algorithm. The advantage of CEFGL lies in its ability to capture common and individual knowledge more precisely. By utilizing low-rank and sparse parameters along with compression techniques, CEFGL significantly reduces communication complexity. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our method achieves optimal classification accuracy in a variety of heterogeneous environments across sixteen datasets. Specifically, compared to the state-of-the-art method FedStar, the proposed method (with GIN as the base model) improves accuracy by 5.64\% on cross-datasets setting CHEM, reduces communication bits by a factor of 18.58, and reduces the communication time by a factor of 1.65.


TimeCHEAT: A Channel Harmony Strategy for Irregularly Sampled Multivariate Time Series Analysis

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Irregularly sampled multivariate time series (ISMTS) are prevalent in reality. Due to their non-uniform intervals between successive observations and varying sampling rates among series, the channel-independent (CI) strategy, which has been demonstrated more desirable for complete multivariate time series forecasting in recent studies, has failed. This failure can be further attributed to the sampling sparsity, which provides insufficient information for effective CI learning, thereby reducing its capacity. When we resort to the channel-dependent (CD) strategy, even higher capacity cannot mitigate the potential loss of diversity in learning similar embedding patterns across different channels. We find that existing work considers CI and CD strategies to be mutually exclusive, primarily because they apply these strategies to the global channel. However, we hold the view that channel strategies do not necessarily have to be used globally. Instead, by appropriately applying them locally and globally, we can create an opportunity to take full advantage of both strategies. This leads us to introduce the Channel Harmony ISMTS Transformer (TimeCHEAT), which utilizes the CD locally and the CI globally. Specifically, we segment the ISMTS into sub-series level patches. Locally, the CD strategy aggregates information within each patch for time embedding learning, maximizing the use of relevant observations while reducing long-range irrelevant interference. Here, we enhance generality by transforming embedding learning into an edge weight prediction task using bipartite graphs, eliminating the need for special prior knowledge. Globally, the CI strategy is applied across patches, allowing the Transformer to learn individualized attention patterns for each channel. Experimental results indicate our proposed TimeCHEAT demonstrates competitive SOTA performance across three mainstream tasks.


Enhancing Persona Classification in Dialogue Systems: A Graph Neural Network Approach

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In recent years, Large Language Models (LLMs) gain considerable attention for their potential to enhance personalized experiences in virtual assistants and chatbots. A key area of interest is the integration of personas into LLMs to improve dialogue naturalness and user engagement. This study addresses the challenge of persona classification, a crucial component in dialogue understanding, by proposing a framework that combines text embeddings with Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) for effective persona classification. Given the absence of dedicated persona classification datasets, we create a manually annotated dataset to facilitate model training and evaluation. Our method involves extracting semantic features from persona statements using text embeddings and constructing a graph where nodes represent personas and edges capture their similarities. The GNN component uses this graph structure to propagate relevant information, thereby improving classification performance. Experimental results show that our approach, in particular the integration of GNNs, significantly improves classification performance, especially with limited data. Our contributions include the development of a persona classification framework and the creation of a dataset.


A Survey on Recommendation Unlearning: Fundamentals, Taxonomy, Evaluation, and Open Questions

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Recommender systems have become increasingly influential in shaping user behavior and decision-making, highlighting their growing impact in various domains. Meanwhile, the widespread adoption of machine learning models in recommender systems has raised significant concerns regarding user privacy and security. As compliance with privacy regulations becomes more critical, there is a pressing need to address the issue of recommendation unlearning, i.e., eliminating the memory of specific training data from the learned recommendation models. Despite its importance, traditional machine unlearning methods are ill-suited for recommendation unlearning due to the unique challenges posed by collaborative interactions and model parameters. This survey offers a comprehensive review of the latest advancements in recommendation unlearning, exploring the design principles, challenges, and methodologies associated with this emerging field. We provide a unified taxonomy that categorizes different recommendation unlearning approaches, followed by a summary of widely used benchmarks and metrics for evaluation. By reviewing the current state of research, this survey aims to guide the development of more efficient, scalable, and robust recommendation unlearning techniques. Furthermore, we identify open research questions in this field, which could pave the way for future innovations not only in recommendation unlearning but also in a broader range of unlearning tasks across different machine learning applications.


Multi-View Incremental Learning with Structured Hebbian Plasticity for Enhanced Fusion Efficiency

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The rapid evolution of multimedia technology has revolutionized human perception, paving the way for multi-view learning. However, traditional multi-view learning approaches are tailored for scenarios with fixed data views, falling short of emulating the intricate cognitive procedures of the human brain processing signals sequentially. Our cerebral architecture seamlessly integrates sequential data through intricate feed-forward and feedback mechanisms. In stark contrast, traditional methods struggle to generalize effectively when confronted with data spanning diverse domains, highlighting the need for innovative strategies that can mimic the brain's adaptability and dynamic integration capabilities. In this paper, we propose a bio-neurologically inspired multi-view incremental framework named MVIL aimed at emulating the brain's fine-grained fusion of sequentially arriving views. MVIL lies two fundamental modules: structured Hebbian plasticity and synaptic partition learning. The structured Hebbian plasticity reshapes the structure of weights to express the high correlation between view representations, facilitating a fine-grained fusion of view representations. Moreover, synaptic partition learning is efficient in alleviating drastic changes in weights and also retaining old knowledge by inhibiting partial synapses. These modules bionically play a central role in reinforcing crucial associations between newly acquired information and existing knowledge repositories, thereby enhancing the network's capacity for generalization. Experimental results on six benchmark datasets show MVIL's effectiveness over state-of-the-art methods.