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 Statistical Learning


Improving Time Series Forecasting via Instance-aware Post-hoc Revision

Neural Information Processing Systems

Time series forecasting plays a vital role in various real-world applications and has attracted significant attention in recent decades. While recent methods have achieved remarkable accuracy by incorporating advanced inductive biases and training strategies, we observe that instance-level variations remain a significant challenge. These variations--stemming from distribution shifts, missing data, and long-tail patterns--often lead to suboptimal forecasts for specific instances, even when overall performance appears strong. To address this issue, we propose a model-agnostic framework, PIR, designed to enhance forecasting performance through Post-forecasting Identification and Revision. Specifically, PIR first identifies biased forecasting instances by estimating their accuracy. Based on this, the framework revises the forecasts using contextual information, including covariates and historical time series, from both local and global perspectives in a post-processing fashion. Extensive experiments on real-world datasets with mainstream forecasting models demonstrate that PIR effectively mitigates instance-level errors and significantly improves forecasting reliability.


Unifying Proportional Fairness in Centroid and Non-Centroid Clustering

Neural Information Processing Systems

Proportional fairness criteria inspired by democratic ideals of proportional representation have received growing attention in the clustering literature. Prior work has investigated them in two separate paradigms. Chen et al. [1] study centroid clustering, in which each data point's loss is determined by its distance to a representative point (centroid) chosen in its cluster. Caragiannis et al. [2] study non-centroid clustering, in which each data point's loss is determined by its maximum distance to any other data point in its cluster. We generalize both paradigms to introduce semi-centroid clustering, in which each data point's loss is a combination of its centroid and non-centroid losses, and study two proportional fairness criteria--the core, and its relaxation, fully justified representation (FJR). Our main result is a novel algorithm which achieves a constant approximation to the core, in polynomial time, even when the distance metrics used for centroid and non-centroid loss measurements are different. We also derive improved results for more restricted loss functions and the weaker FJR criterion, and establish lower bounds in each case.


MDNS: Masked Diffusion Neural Sampler via Stochastic Optimal Control

Neural Information Processing Systems

We study the problem of learning a neural sampler to generate samples from discrete state spaces where the target probability mass function ฯ€ e U is known up to a normalizing constant, which is an important task in fields such as statistical physics, machine learning, combinatorial optimization, etc. To better address this challenging task when the state space has a large cardinality and the distribution is multi-modal, we propose Masked Diffusion Neural Sampler (MDNS), a novel framework for training discrete neural samplers by aligning two path measures through a family of learning objectives, theoretically grounded in the stochastic optimal control of the continuous-time Markov chains. We validate the efficiency and scalability of MDNS through extensive experiments on various distributions with distinct statistical properties, where MDNS learns to accurately sample from the target distributions despite the extremely high problem dimensions and outperforms other learning-based baselines by a large margin. A comprehensive study of ablations and extensions is also provided to demonstrate the efficacy and potential of the proposed framework.


3255a7554605a88800f4e120b3a929e1-Paper-Conference.pdf

Neural Information Processing Systems

Large language models (LLMs) frequently generate hallucinations--content that deviates from factual accuracy or provided context--posing challenges for diagnosis due to the complex interplay of underlying causes. This paper introduces a subsequence association framework to systematically trace and understand hallucinations. Our key insight is that hallucinations arise when dominant hallucinatory associations outweigh faithful ones. Through theoretical and empirical analyses, we demonstrate that decoder-only transformers effectively function as subsequence embedding models, with linear layers encoding input-output associations. We propose a tracing algorithm that identifies causal subsequences by analyzing hallucination probabilities across randomized input contexts. Experiments show our method outperforms standard attribution techniques in identifying hallucination causes and aligns with evidence from the model's training corpus. This work provides a unified perspective on hallucinations and a robust framework for their tracing and analysis.


SAS: Simulated Attention Score

Neural Information Processing Systems

The attention mechanism is a core component of the Transformer architecture. Various methods have been developed to compute attention scores, including multihead attention (MHA), multi-query attention, group-query attention and so on. We further analyze the MHA and observe that its performance improves as the number of attention heads increases, provided the hidden size per head remains sufficiently large. Therefore, increasing both the head count and hidden size per head with minimal parameter overhead can lead to significant performance gains at a low cost. Motivated by this insight, we introduce Simulated Attention Score (SAS), which maintains a compact model size while simulating a larger number of attention heads and hidden feature dimension per head. This is achieved by projecting a low-dimensional head representation into a higher-dimensional space, effectively increasing attention capacity without increasing parameter count. Beyond the head representations, we further extend the simulation approach to feature dimension of the key and query embeddings, enhancing expressiveness by mimicking the behavior of a larger model while preserving the original model size. To control the parameter cost, we also propose Parameter-Efficient Attention Aggregation (PEAA). Comprehensive experiments on a variety of datasets and tasks demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed SAS method, achieving significant improvements over different attention variants.


Constrained Diffusers for Safe Planning and Control

Neural Information Processing Systems

Diffusion models have shown remarkable potential in planning and control tasks due to their ability to represent multimodal distributions over actions and trajectories. However, ensuring safety under constraints remains a critical challenge for diffusion models. This paper proposes Constrained Diffusers, an extended framework for planning and control that incorporates distribution-level constraints into pretrained diffusion models without retraining or architectural modifications. Inspired by constrained optimization, we apply a constrained Langevin sampling method for the reverse diffusion process that jointly optimizes the trajectory and achieves constraint satisfaction through three iterative algorithms: projected method, primaldual method and augmented Lagrangian method. In addition, we incorporate discrete control barrier functions as constraints for constrained diffusers to guarantee safety in online implementation, following a receding-horizon control that we generate a short-horizon plan and execute only the first action before replanning. Experiments in Maze2D, locomotion, and PyBullet ball running tasks demonstrate that our proposed methods achieve constraint satisfaction with less computation time, and are competitive with existing methods in environments with static and time-varying constraints. The implementation can be found here.


MixPrompt: Efficient Mixed Prompting for Multimodal Semantic Segmentation

Neural Information Processing Systems

Recent advances in multimodal semantic segmentation show that incorporating auxiliary inputs--such as depth or thermal images--can significantly improve performance over single-modality (RGB-only) approaches. However, most existing solutions rely on parallel backbone networks and complex fusion modules, greatly increasing model size and computational demands. Inspired by prompt tuning in large language models, we introduce MixPrompt: a prompting-based framework that integrates auxiliary modalities into a pretrained RGB segmentation model without modifying its architecture. MixPrompt uses a lightweight prompting module to extract and fuse information from auxiliary inputs into the main RGB backbone. This module is initialized using the early layers of a pretrained RGB feature extractor, ensuring a strong starting point.


Correcting misinterpretations of additive models

Neural Information Processing Systems

Correct model interpretation in high-stakes settings is critical, yet both post-hoc feature attribution methods and so-called intrinsically interpretable models can systematically attribute false-positive importance to non-informative features such as suppressor variables. Specifically, both linear models and their powerful nonlinear generalisation such as General Additive Models (GAMs) are susceptible to spurious attributions to suppressors. We present a principled generalisation of activation patterns - originally developed to make linear models interpretable - to additive models, correctly rejecting suppressor effects for non-linear features. This yields PatternGAM, an importance attribution method based on univariate generative surrogate models for the broad family of additive models, and PatternQLR for polynomial models. Empirical evaluations on the XAI-TRIS benchmark with a novel false-negative invariant formulation of the earth mover's distance accuracy metric demonstrates significant improvements over popular feature attribution methods and the traditional interpretation of additive models. Finally, real-world case studies on the COMPAS and MIMIC-IV datasets provide new insights into the role of specific features by disentangling genuine target-related information from suppression effects that would mislead conventional GAM interpretations.


DKDR: Dynamic Knowledge Distillation for Reliability in Federated Learning

Neural Information Processing Systems

Federated Learning (FL) has demonstrated a promising future in privacy-friendly collaboration but it faces the data heterogeneity problem. Knowledge Distillation (KD) can serve as an effective method to address this issue. However, challenges arise from the unreliability of existing distillation methods in multi-domain scenarios. Prevalent distillation solutions primarily aim to fit the distributions of the global model directly by minimizing forward Kullback-Leibler divergence (KLD). This results in significant bias when the outputs of the global model are multi-peaked, which indicates the unreliability of distillation pathway. Meanwhile, cross-domain update conflicts can notably reduce the accuracy of the global model (teacher model) in certain domains, reflecting the unreliability of the teacher model in these domains.


RAT Bridging and Attention Accuracy via Chunk based Sequence Modeling

Neural Information Processing Systems

Transformers have become the cornerstone of modern large-scale language models, but their reliance on softmax attention poses a computational bottleneck at both training and inference. Recurrent models offer high efficiency, but compressing the full sequence into a fixed-size and holistic representation can suffer from memory degradation in long contexts and limit fine-grained retrieval. To address this, we propose RAT, an intermediate design that bridges the efficiency of RNNs and capacity of attention. RATpartitions the input into chunks, applies recurrence within each chunk for local dependencies, and softmax-based attention across chunks for longrange interactions. This design mitigates memory degradation and enables direct access to distant tokens, while retaining computational efficiency. Empirically, with a chunk size of 16, the RAT block achieves a 7 improvement in training speed for 100K sequence length and 9 in generation at the 4K position, while maintaining similar performance compared to standard attention. We demonstrate this by training 1.3B parameter models from scratch and performing large-scale evaluations, including short-and long-context benchmarks, as well as supervised finetuning (SFT). We further propose a hybrid architecture that interleaves RATwith local attention. By combining efficient long-range modeling with strong local interactions, this hybrid design not only improves inference speed and reduces cache memory usage, but also consistently enhances performance and shows the overall best results.