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 Statistical Learning


SpaceTime: Causal Discovery from Non-Stationary Time Series

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Understanding causality is challenging and often complicated by changing causal relationships over time and across environments. Climate patterns, for example, shift over time with recurring seasonal trends, while also depending on geographical characteristics such as ecosystem variability. Existing methods for discovering causal graphs from time series either assume stationarity, do not permit both temporal and spatial distribution changes, or are unaware of locations with the same causal relationships. In this work, we therefore unify the three tasks of causal graph discovery in the non-stationary multi-context setting, of reconstructing temporal regimes, and of partitioning datasets and time intervals into those where invariant causal relationships hold. To construct a consistent score that forms the basis of our method, we employ the Minimum Description Length principle. Our resulting algorithm SPACETIME simultaneously accounts for heterogeneity across space and non-stationarity over time. Given multiple time series, it discovers regime changepoints and a temporal causal graph using non-parametric functional modeling and kernelized discrepancy testing. We also show that our method provides insights into real-world phenomena such as river-runoff measured at different catchments and biosphere-atmosphere interactions across ecosystems.


SEANN: A Domain-Informed Neural Network for Epidemiological Insights

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In epidemiology, traditional statistical methods such as logistic regression, linear regression, and other parametric models are commonly employed to investigate associations between predictors and health outcomes. However, non-parametric machine learning techniques, such as deep neural networks (DNNs), coupled with explainable AI (XAI) tools, offer new opportunities for this task. Despite their potential, these methods face challenges due to the limited availability of high-quality, high-quantity data in this field. To address these challenges, we introduce SEANN, a novel approach for informed DNNs that leverages a prevalent form of domain-specific knowledge: Pooled Effect Sizes (PES). PESs are commonly found in published Meta-Analysis studies, in different forms, and represent a quantitative form of a scientific consensus. By direct integration within the learning procedure using a custom loss, we experimentally demonstrate significant improvements in the generalizability of predictive performances and the scientific plausibility of extracted relationships compared to a domain-knowledge agnostic neural network in a scarce and noisy data setting.


Natural Language Processing of Privacy Policies: A Survey

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Natural Language Processing (NLP) is an essential subset of artificial intelligence. It has become effective in several domains, such as healthcare, finance, and media, to identify perceptions, opinions, and misuse, among others. Privacy is no exception, and initiatives have been taken to address the challenges of usable privacy notifications to users with the help of NLP. To this aid, we conduct a literature review by analyzing 109 papers at the intersection of NLP and privacy policies. First, we provide a brief introduction to privacy policies and discuss various facets of associated problems, which necessitate the application of NLP to elevate the current state of privacy notices and disclosures to users. Subsequently, we a) provide an overview of the implementation and effectiveness of NLP approaches for better privacy policy communication; b) identify the methodologies that can be further enhanced to provide robust privacy policies; and c) identify the gaps in the current state-of-the-art research. Our systematic analysis reveals that several research papers focus on annotating and classifying privacy texts for analysis but need to adequately dwell on other aspects of NLP applications, such as summarization. More specifically, ample research opportunities exist in this domain, covering aspects such as corpus generation, summarization vectors, contextualized word embedding, identification of privacy-relevant statement categories, fine-grained classification, and domain-specific model tuning.


Topology-Driven Attribute Recovery for Attribute Missing Graph Learning in Social Internet of Things

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

With the advancement of information technology, the Social Internet of Things (SIoT) has fostered the integration of physical devices and social networks, deepening the study of complex interaction patterns. Text Attribute Graphs (TAGs) capture both topological structures and semantic attributes, enhancing the analysis of complex interactions within the SIoT. However, existing graph learning methods are typically designed for complete attributed graphs, and the common issue of missing attributes in Attribute Missing Graphs (AMGs) increases the difficulty of analysis tasks. To address this, we propose the Topology-Driven Attribute Recovery (TDAR) framework, which leverages topological data for AMG learning. TDAR introduces an improved pre-filling method for initial attribute recovery using native graph topology. Additionally, it dynamically adjusts propagation weights and incorporates homogeneity strategies within the embedding space to suit AMGs' unique topological structures, effectively reducing noise during information propagation. Extensive experiments on public datasets demonstrate that TDAR significantly outperforms state-of-the-art methods in attribute reconstruction and downstream tasks, offering a robust solution to the challenges posed by AMGs. The code is available at https://github.com/limengran98/TDAR.


DADA: Dual Averaging with Distance Adaptation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We present a novel universal gradient method for solving convex optimization problems. Our algorithm -- Dual Averaging with Distance Adaptation (DADA) -- is based on the classical scheme of dual averaging and dynamically adjusts its coefficients based on observed gradients and the distance between iterates and the starting point, eliminating the need for problem-specific parameters. DADA is a universal algorithm that simultaneously works for a broad spectrum of problem classes, provided the local growth of the objective function around its minimizer can be bounded. Particular examples of such problem classes are nonsmooth Lipschitz functions, Lipschitz-smooth functions, H\"older-smooth functions, functions with high-order Lipschitz derivative, quasi-self-concordant functions, and $(L_0,L_1)$-smooth functions. Crucially, DADA is applicable to both unconstrained and constrained problems, even when the domain is unbounded, without requiring prior knowledge of the number of iterations or desired accuracy.


HOPS: High-order Polynomials with Self-supervised Dimension Reduction for Load Forecasting

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Load forecasting is a fundamental task in smart grid. Many techniques have been applied to developing load forecasting models. Due to the challenges such as the Curse of Dimensionality, overfitting, and limited computing resources, multivariate higher-order polynomial models have received limited attention in load forecasting, despite their desirable mathematical foundations and optimization properties. In this paper, we propose low rank approximation and self-supervised dimension reduction to address the aforementioned issues. To further improve computational efficiency, we also introduce a fast Conjugate Gradient based algorithm for the proposed polynomial models. Based on the ISO New England dataset used in Global Energy Forecasting Competition 2017, the proposed method high-order polynomials with self-supervised dimension reduction (HOPS) demonstrates higher forecasting accuracy over several competitive models. Additionally, experimental results indicate that our approach alleviates redundant variable construction, achieving better forecasts with fewer input variables.


Enhancing Crash Frequency Modeling Based on Augmented Multi-Type Data by Hybrid VAE-Diffusion-Based Generative Neural Networks

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Crash frequency modelling analyzes the impact of factors like traffic volume, road geometry, and environmental conditions on crash occurrences. Inaccurate predictions can distort our understanding of these factors, leading to misguided policies and wasted resources, which jeopardize traffic safety. A key challenge in crash frequency modelling is the prevalence of excessive zero observations, caused by underreporting, the low probability of crashes, and high data collection costs. These zero observations often reduce model accuracy and introduce bias, complicating safety decision making. While existing approaches, such as statistical methods, data aggregation, and resampling, attempt to address this issue, they either rely on restrictive assumptions or result in significant information loss, distorting crash data. To overcome these limitations, we propose a hybrid VAE-Diffusion neural network, designed to reduce zero observations and handle the complexities of multi-type tabular crash data (count, ordinal, nominal, and real-valued variables). We assess the synthetic data quality generated by this model through metrics like similarity, accuracy, diversity, and structural consistency, and compare its predictive performance against traditional statistical models. Our findings demonstrate that the hybrid VAE-Diffusion model outperforms baseline models across all metrics, offering a more effective approach to augmenting crash data and improving the accuracy of crash frequency predictions. This study highlights the potential of synthetic data to enhance traffic safety by improving crash frequency modelling and informing better policy decisions.


Towards Data-Centric AI: A Comprehensive Survey of Traditional, Reinforcement, and Generative Approaches for Tabular Data Transformation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Tabular data is one of the most widely used formats across industries, driving critical applications in areas such as finance, healthcare, and marketing. In the era of data-centric AI, improving data quality and representation has become essential for enhancing model performance, particularly in applications centered around tabular data. This survey examines the key aspects of tabular data-centric AI, emphasizing feature selection and feature generation as essential techniques for data space refinement. We provide a systematic review of feature selection methods, which identify and retain the most relevant data attributes, and feature generation approaches, which create new features to simplify the capture of complex data patterns. This survey offers a comprehensive overview of current methodologies through an analysis of recent advancements, practical applications, and the strengths and limitations of these techniques. Finally, we outline open challenges and suggest future perspectives to inspire continued innovation in this field.


A Tensor Low-Rank Approximation for Value Functions in Multi-Task Reinforcement Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In pursuit of reinforcement learning systems that could train in physical environments, we investigate multi-task approaches as a means to alleviate the need for massive data acquisition. In a tabular scenario where the Q-functions are collected across tasks, we model our learning problem as optimizing a higher order tensor structure. Recognizing that close-related tasks may require similar actions, our proposed method imposes a low-rank condition on this aggregated Q-tensor. The rationale behind this approach to multi-task learning is that the low-rank structure enforces the notion of similarity, without the need to explicitly prescribe which tasks are similar, but inferring this information from a reduced amount of data simultaneously with the stochastic optimization of the Q-tensor. The efficiency of our low-rank tensor approach to multi-task learning is demonstrated in two numerical experiments, first in a benchmark environment formed by a collection of inverted pendulums, and then into a practical scenario involving multiple wireless communication devices.


Region-wise stacking ensembles for estimating brain-age using MRI

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Predictive modeling using structural magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) data is a prominent approach to study brain-aging. Machine learning algorithms and feature extraction methods have been employed to improve predictions and explore healthy and accelerated aging e.g. neurodegenerative and psychiatric disorders. The high-dimensional MRI data pose challenges to building generalizable and interpretable models as well as for data privacy. Common practices are resampling or averaging voxels within predefined parcels, which reduces anatomical specificity and biological interpretability as voxels within a region may differently relate to aging. Effectively, naive fusion by averaging can result in information loss and reduced accuracy. We present a conceptually novel two-level stacking ensemble (SE) approach. The first level comprises regional models for predicting individuals' age based on voxel-wise information, fused by a second-level model yielding final predictions. Eight data fusion scenarios were explored using as input Gray matter volume (GMV) estimates from four datasets covering the adult lifespan. Performance, measured using mean absolute error (MAE), R2, correlation and prediction bias, showed that SE outperformed the region-wise averages. The best performance was obtained when first-level regional predictions were obtained as out-of-sample predictions on the application site with second-level models trained on independent and site-specific data (MAE=4.75 vs baseline regional mean GMV MAE=5.68). Performance improved as more datasets were used for training. First-level predictions showed improved and more robust aging signal providing new biological insights and enhanced data privacy. Overall, the SE improves accuracy compared to the baseline while preserving or enhancing data privacy.