Accurate and trustworthy epidemic forecasting is an important problem for public health planning and disease mitigation. Recent works in deep neural models for uncertainty-aware time-series forecasting also have several limitations; e.g., it is difficult to specify proper priors in Bayesian NNs, while methods like deep ensembling can be computationally expensive. In this paper, we propose to use neural functional processes to fill this gap. We model epidemic time-series with a probabilistic generative process and propose a functional neural process model called EpiFNP, which directly models the probability distribution of the forecast value in a non-parametric way. In EpiFNP, we use a dynamic stochastic correlation graph to model the correlations between sequences, and design different stochastic latent variables to capture functional uncertainty from different perspectives.

Most real-world problems that machine learning algorithms are expected to solve face the situation with (1) unknown data distribution; (2) little domain-specific knowledge; and (3) datasets with limited annotation. We propose Non-Parametric learning by Compression with Latent Variables (NPC-LV), a learning framework for any dataset with abundant unlabeled data but very few labeled ones. By only training a generative model in an unsupervised way, the framework utilizes the data distribution to build a compressor. Using a compressor-based distance metric derived from Kolmogorov complexity, together with few labeled data, NPC-LV classifies without further training. We show that NPC-LV outperforms supervised methods on all three datasets on image classification in the low data regime and even outperforms semi-supervised learning methods on CIFAR-10.

Three Operator Splitting (TOS) (Davis & Yin, 2017) can minimize the sum of multiple convex functions effectively when an efficient gradient oracle or proximal operator is available for each term. This requirement often fails in machine learning applications: (i) instead of full gradients only stochastic gradients may be available; and (ii) instead of proximal operators, using subgradients to handle complex penalty functions may be more efficient and realistic. Motivated by these concerns, we analyze three potentially valuable extensions of TOS. The first two permit using subgradients and stochastic gradients, and are shown to ensure a \mathcal{O}(1/\sqrt{t}) convergence rate. We compare our proposed methods with competing methods on various applications.

We develop a novel method for carrying out model selection for Bayesian autoencoders (BAEs) by means of prior hyper-parameter optimization. Inspired by the common practice of type-II maximum likelihood optimization and its equivalence to Kullback-Leibler divergence minimization, we propose to optimize the distributional sliced-Wasserstein distance (DSWD) between the output of the autoencoder and the empirical data distribution. The advantages of this formulation are that we can estimate the DSWD based on samples and handle high-dimensional problems. We carry out posterior estimation of the BAE parameters via stochastic gradient Hamiltonian Monte Carlo and turn our BAE into a generative model by fitting a flexible Dirichlet mixture model in the latent space. Thanks to this approach, we obtain a powerful alternative to variational autoencoders, which are the preferred choice in modern application of autoencoders for representation learning with uncertainty.

Our main result is a Statistical Query (SQ) lower bound suggesting that known algorithms for this problem are essentially best possible,even for the special case of uniform mixtures.In particular, we show that the complexity of any SQ algorithm for the problem is n {\mathrm{poly}(1/\Delta) \log(r)},where \Delta is a lower bound on the pairwise \ell_2 -separation between the \mathbf{v}_{\ell} 's.The key technical ingredient underlying our result is a new construction of spherical designs on the unit sphere that may be of independent interest.

We present a technique for significantly speeding up Alternating Least Squares (ALS) and Gradient Descent (GD), two widely used algorithms for tensor factorization. By exploiting properties of the Khatri-Rao product, we show how to efficiently address a computationally challenging sub-step of both algorithms. Our algorithm, DFacTo, only requires two matrix-vector products and is easy to parallelize. DFacTo is not only scalable but also on average 4 to 10 times faster than competing algorithms on a variety of datasets. For instance, DFacTo only takes 480 seconds on 4 machines to perform one iteration of the ALS algorithm and 1,143 seconds to perform one iteration of the GD algorithm on a 6.5 million x 2.5 million x 1.5 million dimensional tensor with 1.2 billion non-zero entries.

The multiple-try Metropolis (MTM) algorithm is an extension of the Metropolis-Hastings (MH) algorithm by selecting the proposed state among multiple trials according to some weight function. Although MTM has gained great popularity owing to its faster empirical convergence and mixing than the standard MH algorithm, its theoretical mixing property is rarely studied in the literature due to its complex proposal scheme. We prove that MTM can achieve a mixing time bound smaller than that of MH by a factor of the number of trials under a general setting applicable to high-dimensional model selection problems with discrete state spaces. Our theoretical results motivate a new class of weight functions called locally balanced weight functions and guide the choice of the number of trials, which leads to improved performance over standard MTM algorithms. We support our theoretical results by extensive simulation studies and real data applications with several Bayesian model selection problems.

The prototypical network is a prototype classifier based on meta-learning and is widely used for few-shot learning because it classifies unseen examples by constructing class-specific prototypes without adjusting hyper-parameters during meta-testing.Interestingly, recent research has attracted a lot of attention, showing that training a new linear classifier, which does not use a meta-learning algorithm, performs comparably with the prototypical network.However, the training of a new linear classifier requires the retraining of the classifier every time a new class appears.In this paper, we analyze how a prototype classifier works equally well without training a new linear classifier or meta-learning.We experimentally find that directly using the feature vectors, which is extracted by using standard pre-trained models to construct a prototype classifier in meta-testing, does not perform as well as the prototypical network and training new linear classifiers on the feature vectors of pre-trained models.Thus, we derive a novel generalization bound for a prototypical classifier and show that the transformation of a feature vector can improve the performance of prototype classifiers.We experimentally investigate several normalization methods for minimizing the derived bound and find that the same performance can be obtained by using the L2 normalization and minimizing the ratio of the within-class variance to the between-class variance without training a new classifier or meta-learning.

Annealed importance sampling (AIS) and related algorithms are highly effective tools for marginal likelihood estimation, but are not fully differentiable due to the use of Metropolis-Hastings correction steps. Differentiability is a desirable property as it would admit the possibility of optimizing marginal likelihood as an objective using gradient-based methods. To this end, we propose Differentiable AIS (DAIS), a variant of AIS which ensures differentiability by abandoning the Metropolis-Hastings corrections. As a further advantage, DAIS allows for mini-batch gradients. We provide a detailed convergence analysis for Bayesian linear regression which goes beyond previous analyses by explicitly accounting for the sampler not having reached equilibrium.

We provide the first finite-particle convergence rate for Stein variational gradient descent (SVGD), a popular algorithm for approximating a probability distribution with a collection of particles. Specifically, whenever the target distribution is sub-Gaussian with a Lipschitz score, SVGD with n particles and an appropriate step size sequence drives the kernel Stein discrepancy to zero at an order {1/}{\sqrt{\log\log n}} rate. We suspect that the dependence on n can be improved, and we hope that our explicit, non-asymptotic proof strategy will serve as a template for future refinements.