We propose a post hoc saliency-based explanation framework for counterfactual reasoning in probabilistic multivariate time-series forecasting (regression) settings. Building upon Miller's framework of explanations derived from research in multiple social science disciplines, we establish a conceptual link between counterfactual reasoning and saliency-based explanation techniques. To address the lack of a principled notion of saliency, we leverage a unifying definition of information-theoretic saliency grounded in preattentive human visual cognition and extend it to forecasting settings. Specifically, we obtain a closed-form expression for commonly used density functions to identify which observed timesteps appear salient to an underlying model in making its probabilistic forecasts. We empirically validate our framework in a principled manner using synthetic data to establish ground-truth saliency that is unavailable for real-world data.

In this paper, we study the statistical limits in terms of Sobolev norms of gradient descent for solving inverse problem from randomly sampled noisy observations using a general class of objective functions. Our class of objective functions includes Sobolev training for kernel regression, Deep Ritz Methods (DRM), and Physics Informed Neural Networks (PINN) for solving elliptic partial differential equations (PDEs) as special cases. We consider a potentially infinite-dimensional parameterization of our model using a suitable Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Space and a continuous parameterization of problem hardness through the definition of kernel integral operators. We prove that gradient descent over this objective function can also achieve statistical optimality and the optimal number of passes over the data increases with sample size. Based on our theory, we explain an implicit acceleration of using a Sobolev norm as the objective function for training, inferring that the optimal number of epochs of DRM becomes larger than the number of PINN when both the data size and the hardness of tasks increase, although both DRM and PINN can achieve statistical optimality.

Pre-trained multi-modal vision-language models (VLMs) are becoming increasingly popular due to their exceptional performance on downstream vision applications, particularly in the few- and zero-shot settings. However, selecting the best-performing VLM for some downstream applications is non-trivial, as it is dataset and task-dependent. Meanwhile, the exhaustive evaluation of all available VLMs on a novel application is not only time and computationally demanding but also necessitates the collection of a labeled dataset for evaluation. As the number of open-source VLM variants increases, there is a need for an efficient model selection strategy that does not require access to a curated evaluation dataset. This paper proposes a novel task and benchmark for efficiently evaluating VLMs' zero-shot performance on downstream applications without access to the downstream task dataset. Specifically, we introduce a new task LOVM: Language-Only Vision Model Selection, where methods are expected to perform both model selection and performance prediction based solely on a text description of the desired downstream application.

In this work, we provide a fundamental unified convergence theorem used for deriving expected and almost sure convergence results for a series of stochastic optimization methods. Our unified theorem only requires to verify several representative conditions and is not tailored to any specific algorithm. As a direct application, we recover expected and almost sure convergence results of the stochastic gradient method (SGD) and random reshuffling (RR) under more general settings. Moreover, we establish new expected and almost sure convergence results for the stochastic proximal gradient method (prox-SGD) and stochastic model-based methods for nonsmooth nonconvex optimization problems. These applications reveal that our unified theorem provides a plugin-type convergence analysis and strong convergence guarantees for a wide class of stochastic optimization methods.

This paper investigates an under-explored but important problem: given a collection of pre-trained neural networks, predicting their performance on each multi-modal task without fine-tuning them, such as image recognition, referring, captioning, visual question answering, and text question answering.A brute-force approach is to finetune all models on all target datasets, bringing high computational costs. Although recent-advanced approaches employed lightweight metrics to measure models' transferability, they often depend heavily on the prior knowledge of a single task, making them inapplicable in a multi-modal multi-task scenario. To tackle this issue, we propose an efficient multi-task model selector (EMMS), which employs large-scale foundation models to transform diverse label formats such as categories, texts, and bounding boxes of different downstream tasks into a unified noisy label embedding. EMMS can estimate a model's transferability through a simple weighted linear regression, which can be efficiently solved by an alternating minimization algorithm with a convergence guarantee. Extensive experiments on 5 downstream tasks with 24 datasets show that EMMS is fast, effective, and generic enough to assess the transferability of pre-trained models, making it the first model selection method in the multi-task scenario.

We study linear regression under covariate shift, where the marginal distribution over the input covariates differs in the source and the target domains, while the conditional distribution of the output given the input covariates is similar across the two domains. We investigate a transfer learning approach with pretraining on the source data and finetuning based on the target data (both conducted by online SGD) for this problem. We establish sharp instance-dependent excess risk upper and lower bounds for this approach. Our bounds suggest that for a large class of linear regression instances, transfer learning with O(N 2) source data (and scarce or no target data) is as effective as supervised learning with N target data. In addition, we show that finetuning, even with only a small amount of target data, could drastically reduce the amount of source data required by pretraining.

We consider a structured multi-label prediction problem where the labels are organized under implication and mutual exclusion constraints. A major concern is to produce predictions that are logically consistent with these constraints. To do so, we formulate this problem as an embedding inference problem where the constraints are imposed onto the embeddings of labels by geometric construction. Particularly, we consider a hyperbolic Poincaré ball model in which we encode labels as Poincaré hyperplanes that work as linear decision boundaries. The hyperplanes are interpreted as convex regions such that the logical relationships (implication and exclusion) are geometrically encoded using the insideness and disjointedness of these regions, respectively.

This paper presents a risk analysis of flowlines in the oil and gas sector using Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and machine learning (ML). Flowlines, vital conduits transporting oil, gas, and water from wellheads to surface facilities, often face under-assessment compared to transmission pipelines. This study addresses this gap using advanced tools to predict and mitigate failures, improving environmental safety and reducing human exposure. Extensive datasets from the Colorado Energy and Carbon Management Commission (ECMC) were processed through spatial matching, feature engineering, and geometric extraction to build robust predictive models. Various ML algorithms, including logistic regression, support vector machines, gradient boosting decision trees, and K-Means clustering, were used to assess and classify risks, with ensemble classifiers showing superior accuracy, especially when paired with Principal Component Analysis (PCA) for dimensionality reduction. Finally, a thorough data analysis highlighted spatial and operational factors influencing risks, identifying high-risk zones for focused monitoring. Overall, the study demonstrates the transformative potential of integrating GIS and ML in flowline risk management, proposing a data-driven approach that emphasizes the need for accurate data and refined models to improve safety in petroleum extraction.

Federated Learning (FL) has emerged as a significant paradigm for training machine learning models. This is due to its data-privacy-preserving property and its efficient exploitation of distributed computational resources. This is achieved by conducting the training process in parallel at distributed users. However, traditional FL strategies grapple with difficulties in evaluating the quality of received models, handling unbalanced models, and reducing the impact of detrimental models. To resolve these problems, we introduce a novel federated learning framework, which we call federated testing for federated learning (FedTest). In the FedTest method, the local data of a specific user is used to train the model of that user and test the models of the other users. This approach enables users to test each other's models and determine an accurate score for each. This score can then be used to aggregate the models efficiently and identify any malicious ones. Our numerical results reveal that the proposed method not only accelerates convergence rates but also diminishes the potential influence of malicious users. This significantly enhances the overall efficiency and robustness of FL systems.

Synchrophasor technology or phasor measurement units (PMUs) are known to detect multiple type of oscillations or faults better than Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) systems, but the volume of Bigdata (e.g., 30-120 samples per second on a single PMU) generated by these sensors at the aggregator level (e.g., several PMUs) requires special handling. Conventional machine learning or data mining methods are not suitable to handle such larger streaming realtime data. This is primarily due to latencies associated with cloud environments (e.g., at an aggregator or PDC level), and thus necessitates the need for local computing to move the data on the edge (or locally at the PMU level) for processing. This requires faster real-time streaming algorithms to be processed at the local level (e.g., typically by a Field Programmable Gate Array (FPGA) based controllers). This paper proposes a transfer learning-based hoeffding tree with ADWIN (THAT) method to detect anomalous synchrophasor signatures. The proposed algorithm is trained and tested with the OzaBag method. The preliminary results with transfer learning indicate that a computational time saving of 0.7ms is achieved with THAT algorithm (0.34ms) over Ozabag (1.04ms), while the accuracy of both methods in detecting fault events remains at 94% for four signatures.