In this paper, we consider the uncertainty quantification problem for regression models. Specifically, we consider an individual calibration objective for characterizing the quantiles of the prediction model. While such an objective is well-motivated from downstream tasks such as newsvendor cost, the existing methods have been largely heuristic and lack of statistical guarantee in terms of individual calibration. We show via simple examples that the existing methods focusing on population-level calibration guarantees such as average calibration or sharpness can lead to harmful and unexpected results. We propose simple nonparametric calibration methods that are agnostic of the underlying prediction model and enjoy both computational efficiency and statistical consistency.

Existing work on differentially private linear regression typically assumes that end users can precisely set data bounds or algorithmic hyperparameters. End users often struggle to meet these requirements without directly examining the data (and violating privacy). Recent work has attempted to develop solutions that shift these burdens from users to algorithms, but they struggle to provide utility as the feature dimension grows. This work extends these algorithms to higher-dimensional problems by introducing a differentially private feature selection method based on Kendall rank correlation. We prove a utility guarantee for the setting where features are normally distributed and conduct experiments across 25 datasets.

A well-known numerical bottleneck in the differentially-private stochastic gradient descent (DP-SGD) algorithm is the computation of the gradient norm for each example in a large input batch. When the loss function in DP-SGD is consists of an intermediate linear operation, existing methods in the literature have proposed decompositions of gradients that are amenable to fast norm computations. In this paper, we present a framework that generalizes the above approach to arbitrary (possibly nonlinear) intermediate operations. Moreover, we show that for certain operations, such as fully-connected and embedding layer computations, further improvements to the runtime and storage costs of existing decompositions can be deduced using certain components of our framework. Finally, preliminary numerical experiments are given to demonstrate the substantial effects of the aforementioned improvements.

Sequential data collection has emerged as a widely adopted technique for enhancing the efficiency of data gathering processes. Despite its advantages, such data collection mechanism often introduces complexities to the statistical inference procedure. For instance, the ordinary least squares (OLS) estimator in an adaptive linear regression model can exhibit non-normal asymptotic behavior, posing challenges for accurate inference and interpretation. In this paper, we propose a general method for constructing debiased estimator which remedies this issue. It makes use of the idea of adaptive linear estimating equations, and we establish theoretical guarantees of asymptotic normality, supplemented by discussions on achieving near-optimal asymptotic variance.

We systematically analyze optimization dynamics in deep neural networks (DNNs) trained with stochastic gradient descent (SGD) and study the effect of learning rate \eta, depth d, and width w of the neural network. By analyzing the maximum eigenvalue \lambda H_t of the Hessian of the loss, which is a measure of sharpness of the loss landscape, we find that the dynamics can show four distinct regimes: (i) an early time transient regime, (ii) an intermediate saturation regime, (iii) a progressive sharpening regime, and (iv) a late time "edge of stability" regime. We identify several critical values of c, which separate qualitatively distinct phenomena in the early time dynamics of training loss and sharpness. Notably, we discover the opening up of a "sharpness reduction" phase, where sharpness decreases at early times, as d and 1/w are increased.

The real-time estimation of time-varying parameters from high-dimensional, heavy-tailed and corrupted data-streams is a common sub-routine in systems ranging from those for network monitoring and anomaly detection to those for traffic scheduling in data-centers. For estimation tasks that can be cast as minimizing a strongly convex loss function, we prove that an appropriately tuned version of the {\ttfamily clipped Stochastic Gradient Descent} (SGD) is simultaneously {\em(i)} adaptive to drift, {\em (ii)} robust to heavy-tailed inliers and arbitrary corruptions, {\em(iii)} requires no distributional knowledge and {\em (iv)} can be implemented in an online streaming fashion. All prior estimation algorithms have only been proven to posses a subset of these practical desiderata. A observation we make is that, neither the \mathcal{O}\left(\frac{1}{t}\right) learning rate for {\ttfamily clipped SGD} known to be optimal for strongly convex loss functions of a \emph{stationary} data-stream, nor the \mathcal{O}(1) learning rate known to be optimal for being adaptive to drift in a \emph{noiseless} environment can be used. Instead, a learning rate of T {-\alpha} for \alpha 1 where T is the stream-length is needed to balance adaptivity to potential drift and to combat noise.

The widely observed'benign overfitting phenomenon' in the neural network literature raises the challenge to the bias-variance trade-off' doctrine in the statistical learning theory.Since the generalization ability of the'lazy trained' over-parametrized neural network can be well approximated by that of the neural tangent kernel regression,the curve of the excess risk (namely, the learning curve) of kernel ridge regression attracts increasing attention recently.However, most recent arguments on the learning curve are heuristic and are based on the'Gaussian design' assumption.In this paper, under mild and more realistic assumptions, we rigorously provide a full characterization of the learning curve in the asymptotic senseunder a power-law decay condition of the eigenvalues of the kernel and also the target function.The learning curve elaborates the effect and the interplay of the choice of the regularization parameter, the source condition and the noise.In particular, our results suggest that the'benign overfitting phenomenon' exists in over-parametrized neural networks only when the noise level is small.

Stein thinning is a promising algorithm proposed by (Riabiz et al., 2022) for post-processing outputs of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). The main principle is to greedily minimize the kernelized Stein discrepancy (KSD), which only requires the gradient of the log-target distribution, and is thus well-suited for Bayesian inference. The main advantages of Stein thinning are the automatic remove of the burn-in period, the correction of the bias introduced by recent MCMC algorithms, and the asymptotic properties of convergence towards the target distribution. Nevertheless, Stein thinning suffers from several empirical pathologies, which may result in poor approximations, as observed in the literature. In this article, we conduct a theoretical analysis of these pathologies, to clearly identify the mechanisms at stake, and suggest improved strategies. Then, we introduce the regularized Stein thinning algorithm to alleviate the identified pathologies.

In privacy under continual observation we study how to release differentially private estimates based on a dataset that evolves over time. The problem of releasing private prefix sums of x_1, x_2, x_3,\dots\in { 0,1 } (where the value of each x_i is to be private) is particularly well-studied, and a generalized form is used in state-of-the-art methods for private stochastic gradient descent (SGD).The seminal binary mechanism privately releases the first t prefix sums with noise of variance polylogarithmic in t . Recently, Henzinger et al. and Denisov et al. showed that it is possible to improve on the binary mechanism in two ways: The variance of the noise can be reduced by a (large) constant factor, and also made more even across time steps. However, their algorithms for generating the noise distribution are not as efficient as one would like in terms of computation time and (in particular) space.We address the efficiency problem by presenting a simple alternative to the binary mechanism in which 1) generating the noise takes constant average time per value, 2) the variance is reduced by a factor about 4 compared to the binary mechanism, and 3) the noise distribution at each step is identical. Empirically, a simple Python implementation of our approach outperforms the running time of the approach of Henzinger et al., as well as an attempt to improve their algorithm using high-performance algorithms for multiplication with Toeplitz matrices.

Sketching algorithms have recently proven to be a powerful approach both for designing low-space streaming algorithms as well as fast polynomial time approximation schemes (PTAS). In this work, we develop new techniques to extend the applicability of sketching-based approaches to the sparse dictionary learning and the Euclidean k -means clustering problems. In particular, we initiate the study of the challenging setting where the dictionary/clustering assignment for each of the n input points must be output, which has surprisingly received little attention in prior work. On the fast algorithms front, we obtain a new approach for designing PTAS's for the k -means clustering problem, which generalizes to the first PTAS for the sparse dictionary learning problem. On the streaming algorithms front, we obtain new upper bounds and lower bounds for dictionary learning and k -means clustering.