Statistical Learning
Multimodal Brain-Computer Interfaces: AI-powered Decoding Methodologies
Li, Siyang, Wang, Hongbin, Chen, Xiaoqing, Wu, Dongrui
Brain-computer interfaces (BCIs) enable direct communication between the brain and external devices. This review highlights the core decoding algorithms that enable multimodal BCIs, including a dissection of the elements, a unified view of diversified approaches, and a comprehensive analysis of the present state of the field. We emphasize algorithmic advancements in cross-modality mapping, sequential modeling, besides classic multi-modality fusion, illustrating how these novel AI approaches enhance decoding of brain data. The current literature of BCI applications on visual, speech, and affective decoding are comprehensively explored. Looking forward, we draw attention on the impact of emerging architectures like multimodal Transformers, and discuss challenges such as brain data heterogeneity and common errors. This review also serves as a bridge in this interdisciplinary field for experts with neuroscience background and experts that study AI, aiming to provide a comprehensive understanding for AI-powered multimodal BCIs.
Robust and Conjugate Spatio-Temporal Gaussian Processes
Laplante, William, Altamirano, Matias, Duncan, Andrew, Knoblauch, Jeremias, Briol, François-Xavier
State-space formulations allow for Gaussian process (GP) regression with linear-in-time computational cost in spatio-temporal settings, but performance typically suffers in the presence of outliers. In this paper, we adapt and specialise the robust and conjugate GP (RCGP) framework of Altamirano et al. (2024) to the spatio-temporal setting. In doing so, we obtain an outlier-robust spatio-temporal GP with a computational cost comparable to classical spatio-temporal GPs. We also overcome the three main drawbacks of RCGPs: their unreliable performance when the prior mean is chosen poorly, their lack of reliable uncertainty quantification, and the need to carefully select a hyperparameter by hand. We study our method extensively in finance and weather forecasting applications, demonstrating that it provides a reliable approach to spatio-temporal modelling in the presence of outliers.
Recovering Imbalanced Clusters via Gradient-Based Projection Pursuit
Eppert, Martin, Mukherjee, Satyaki, Ghoshdastidar, Debarghya
Projection Pursuit is a classic exploratory technique for finding interesting projections of a dataset. We propose a method for recovering projections containing either Imbalanced Clusters or a Bernoulli-Rademacher distribution using a gradient-based technique to optimize the projection index. As sample complexity is a major limiting factor in Projection Pursuit, we analyze our algorithm's sample complexity within a Planted Vector setting where we can observe that Imbalanced Clusters can be recovered more easily than balanced ones. Additionally, we give a generalized result that works for a variety of data distributions and projection indices. We compare these results to computational lower bounds in the Low-Degree-Polynomial Framework. Finally, we experimentally evaluate our method's applicability to real-world data using FashionMNIST and the Human Activity Recognition Dataset, where our algorithm outperforms others when only a few samples are available.
Privacy Amplification by Structured Subsampling for Deep Differentially Private Time Series Forecasting
Schuchardt, Jan, Dalirrooyfard, Mina, Guzelkabaagac, Jed, Schneider, Anderson, Nevmyvaka, Yuriy, Günnemann, Stephan
Many forms of sensitive data, such as web traffic, mobility data, or hospital occupancy, are inherently sequential. The standard method for training machine learning models while ensuring privacy for units of sensitive information, such as individual hospital visits, is differentially private stochastic gradient descent (DP-SGD). However, we observe in this work that the formal guarantees of DP-SGD are incompatible with timeseries-specific tasks like forecasting, since they rely on the privacy amplification attained by training on small, unstructured batches sampled from an unstructured dataset. In contrast, batches for forecasting are generated by (1) sampling sequentially structured time series from a dataset, (2) sampling contiguous subsequences from these series, and (3) partitioning them into context and ground-truth forecast windows. We theoretically analyze the privacy amplification attained by this structured subsampling to enable the training of forecasting models with sound and tight event- and user-level privacy guarantees. Towards more private models, we additionally prove how data augmentation amplifies privacy in self-supervised training of sequence models. Our empirical evaluation demonstrates that amplification by structured subsampling enables the training of forecasting models with strong formal privacy guarantees.
EdgeGFL: Rethinking Edge Information in Graph Feature Preference Learning
Zhuo, Shengda, Fang, Jiwang, Lin, Hongguang, Tang, Yin, Chen, Min, Wang, Changdong, Huang, Shuqiang
Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have significant advantages in handling non-Euclidean data and have been widely applied across various areas, thus receiving increasing attention in recent years. The framework of GNN models mainly includes the information propagation phase and the aggregation phase, treating nodes and edges as information entities and propagation channels, respectively. However, most existing GNN models face the challenge of disconnection between node and edge feature information, as these models typically treat the learning of edge and node features as independent tasks. To address this limitation, we aim to develop an edge-empowered graph feature preference learning framework that can capture edge embeddings to assist node embeddings. By leveraging the learned multidimensional edge feature matrix, we construct multi-channel filters to more effectively capture accurate node features, thereby obtaining the non-local structural characteristics and fine-grained high-order node features. Specifically, the inclusion of multidimensional edge information enhances the functionality and flexibility of the GNN model, enabling it to handle complex and diverse graph data more effectively. Additionally, integrating relational representation learning into the message passing framework allows graph nodes to receive more useful information, thereby facilitating node representation learning. Finally, experiments on four real-world heterogeneous graphs demonstrate the effectiveness of theproposed model.
Decision Theoretic Foundations for Conformal Prediction: Optimal Uncertainty Quantification for Risk-Averse Agents
Kiyani, Shayan, Pappas, George, Roth, Aaron, Hassani, Hamed
A fundamental question in data-driven decision making is how to quantify the uncertainty of predictions in ways that can usefully inform downstream action. This interface between prediction uncertainty and decision-making is especially important in risk-sensitive domains, such as medicine. In this paper, we develop decision-theoretic foundations that connect uncertainty quantification using prediction sets with risk-averse decision-making. Specifically, we answer three fundamental questions: (1) What is the correct notion of uncertainty quantification for risk-averse decision makers? We prove that prediction sets are optimal for decision makers who wish to optimize their value at risk. (2) What is the optimal policy that a risk averse decision maker should use to map prediction sets to actions? We show that a simple max-min decision policy is optimal for risk-averse decision makers. Finally, (3) How can we derive prediction sets that are optimal for such decision makers? We provide an exact characterization in the population regime and a distribution free finite-sample construction. Answering these questions naturally leads to an algorithm, Risk-Averse Calibration (RAC), which follows a provably optimal design for deriving action policies from predictions. RAC is designed to be both practical-capable of leveraging the quality of predictions in a black-box manner to enhance downstream utility-and safe-adhering to a user-defined risk threshold and optimizing the corresponding risk quantile of the user's downstream utility. Finally, we experimentally demonstrate the significant advantages of RAC in applications such as medical diagnosis and recommendation systems. Specifically, we show that RAC achieves a substantially improved trade-off between safety and utility, offering higher utility compared to existing methods while maintaining the safety guarantee.
When Machine Learning Gets Personal: Understanding Fairness of Personalized Models
Cornelis, Louisa, Bernárdez, Guillermo, Jeong, Haewon, Miolane, Nina
Personalization in machine learning involves tailoring models to individual users by incorporating personal attributes such as demographic or medical data. While personalization can improve prediction accuracy, it may also amplify biases and reduce explainability. This work introduces a unified framework to evaluate the impact of personalization on both prediction accuracy and explanation quality across classification and regression tasks. We derive novel upper bounds for the number of personal attributes that can be used to reliably validate benefits of personalization. Our analysis uncovers key trade-offs. We show that regression models can potentially utilize more personal attributes than classification models. We also demonstrate that improvements in prediction accuracy due to personalization do not necessarily translate to enhanced explainability -- underpinning the importance to evaluate both metrics when personalizing machine learning models in critical settings such as healthcare. Validated with a real-world dataset, this framework offers practical guidance for balancing accuracy, fairness, and interpretability in personalized models.
Uncertainty Quantification with the Empirical Neural Tangent Kernel
Wilson, Joseph, van der Heide, Chris, Hodgkinson, Liam, Roosta, Fred
While neural networks have demonstrated impressive performance across various tasks, accurately quantifying uncertainty in their predictions is essential to ensure their trustworthiness and enable widespread adoption in critical systems. Several Bayesian uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods exist that are either cheap or reliable, but not both. We propose a post-hoc, sampling-based UQ method for over-parameterized networks at the end of training. Our approach constructs efficient and meaningful deep ensembles by employing a (stochastic) gradient-descent sampling process on appropriately linearized networks. We demonstrate that our method effectively approximates the posterior of a Gaussian process using the empirical Neural Tangent Kernel. Through a series of numerical experiments, we show that our method not only outperforms competing approaches in computational efficiency (often reducing costs by multiple factors) but also maintains state-of-the-art performance across a variety of UQ metrics for both regression and classification tasks.
An Efficient Local Search Approach for Polarized Community Discovery in Signed Networks
Aronsson, Linus, Chehreghani, Morteza Haghir
Signed networks, where edges are labeled as positive or negative to indicate friendly or antagonistic interactions, offer a natural framework for studying polarization, trust, and conflict in social systems. Detecting meaningful group structures in these networks is crucial for understanding online discourse, political division, and trust dynamics. A key challenge is to identify groups that are cohesive internally yet antagonistic externally, while allowing for neutral or unaligned vertices. In this paper, we address this problem by identifying $k$ polarized communities that are large, dense, and balanced in size. We develop an approach based on Frank-Wolfe optimization, leading to a local search procedure with provable convergence guarantees. Our method is both scalable and efficient, outperforming state-of-the-art baselines in solution quality while remaining competitive in terms of computational efficiency.
Concept-Aware Latent and Explicit Knowledge Integration for Enhanced Cognitive Diagnosis
Chen, Yawen, Sun, Jiande, Li, Jing, Zhang, Huaxiang
Cognitive diagnosis can infer the students' mastery of specific knowledge concepts based on historical response logs. However, the existing cognitive diagnostic models (CDMs) represent students' proficiency via a unidimensional perspective, which can't assess the students' mastery on each knowledge concept comprehensively. Moreover, the Q-matrix binarizes the relationship between exercises and knowledge concepts, and it can't represent the latent relationship between exercises and knowledge concepts. Especially, when the granularity of knowledge attributes refines increasingly, the Q-matrix becomes incomplete correspondingly and the sparse binary representation (0/1) fails to capture the intricate relationships among knowledge concepts. To address these issues, we propose a Concept-aware Latent and Explicit Knowledge Integration model for cognitive diagnosis (CLEKI-CD). Specifically, a multidimensional vector is constructed according to the students' mastery and exercise difficulty for each knowledge concept from multiple perspectives, which enhances the representation capabilities of the model. Moreover, a latent Q-matrix is generated by our proposed attention-based knowledge aggregation method, and it can uncover the coverage degree of exercises over latent knowledge. The latent Q-matrix can supplement the sparse explicit Q-matrix with the inherent relationships among knowledge concepts, and mitigate the knowledge coverage problem. Furthermore, we employ a combined cognitive diagnosis layer to integrate both latent and explicit knowledge, further enhancing cognitive diagnosis performance. Extensive experiments on real-world datasets demonstrate that CLEKI-CD outperforms the state-of-the-art models. The proposed CLEKI-CD is promising in practical applications in the field of intelligent education, as it exhibits good interpretability with diagnostic results.