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 Statistical Learning


Online Learning Algorithms in Hilbert Spaces with $\beta-$ and $\phi-$Mixing Sequences

arXiv.org Machine Learning

In this paper, we study an online algorithm in a reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces (RKHS) based on a class of dependent processes, called the mixing process. For such a process, the degree of dependence is measured by various mixing coefficients. As a representative example, we analyze a strictly stationary Markov chain, where the dependence structure is characterized by the \(\beta-\) and \(\phi-\)mixing coefficients. For these dependent samples, we derive nearly optimal convergence rates. Our findings extend existing error bounds for i.i.d. observations, demonstrating that the i.i.d. case is a special instance of our framework. Moreover, we explicitly account for an additional factor introduced by the dependence structure in the Markov chain.


Detecting Strategic Deception Using Linear Probes

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

AI models might use deceptive strategies as part of scheming or misaligned behaviour. Monitoring outputs alone is insufficient, since the AI might produce seemingly benign outputs while their internal reasoning is misaligned. We thus evaluate if linear probes can robustly detect deception by monitoring model activations. We test two probe-training datasets, one with contrasting instructions to be honest or deceptive (following Zou et al., 2023) and one of responses to simple roleplaying scenarios. We test whether these probes generalize to realistic settings where Llama-3.3-70B-Instruct behaves deceptively, such as concealing insider trading (Scheurer et al., 2023) and purposely underperforming on safety evaluations (Benton et al., 2024). We find that our probe distinguishes honest and deceptive responses with AUROCs between 0.96 and 0.999 on our evaluation datasets. If we set the decision threshold to have a 1% false positive rate on chat data not related to deception, our probe catches 95-99% of the deceptive responses. Overall we think white-box probes are promising for future monitoring systems, but current performance is insufficient as a robust defence against deception. Our probes' outputs can be viewed at data.apolloresearch.ai/dd and our code at github.com/ApolloResearch/deception-detection.


Deep Learning-Based Approach for Identification of Potato Leaf Diseases Using Wrapper Feature Selection and Feature Concatenation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The potato is a widely grown crop in many regions of the world. In recent decades, potato farming has gained incredible traction in the world. Potatoes are susceptible to several illnesses that stunt their development. This plant seems to have significant leaf disease. Early Blight and Late Blight are two prevalent leaf diseases that affect potato plants. The early detection of these diseases would be beneficial for enhancing the yield of this crop. The ideal solution is to use image processing to identify and analyze these disorders. Here, we present an autonomous method based on image processing and machine learning to detect late blight disease affecting potato leaves. The proposed method comprises four different phases: (1) Histogram Equalization is used to improve the quality of the input image; (2) feature extraction is performed using a Deep CNN model, then these extracted features are concatenated; (3) feature selection is performed using wrapper-based feature selection; (4) classification is performed using an SVM classifier and its variants. This proposed method achieves the highest accuracy of 99% using SVM by selecting 550 features.


Accurate AI-Driven Emergency Vehicle Location Tracking in Healthcare ITS Digital Twin

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Creating a Digital Twin (DT) for Healthcare Intelligent Transportation Systems (HITS) is a hot research trend focusing on enhancing HITS management, particularly in emergencies where ambulance vehicles must arrive at the crash scene on time and track their real-time location is crucial to the medical authorities. Despite the claim of real-time representation, a temporal misalignment persists between the physical and virtual domains, leading to discrepancies in the ambulance's location representation. This study proposes integrating AI predictive models, specifically Support Vector Regression (SVR) and Deep Neural Networks (DNN), within a constructed mock DT data pipeline framework to anticipate the medical vehicle's next location in the virtual world. These models align virtual representations with their physical counterparts, i.e., metaphorically offsetting the synchronization delay between the two worlds. Trained meticulously on a historical geospatial dataset, SVR and DNN exhibit exceptional prediction accuracy in MATLAB and Python environments. Through various testing scenarios, we visually demonstrate the efficacy of our methodology, showcasing SVR and DNN's key role in significantly reducing the witnessed gap within the HITS's DT. This transformative approach enhances real-time synchronization in emergency HITS by approximately 88% to 93%.


Circuit Diagram Retrieval Based on Hierarchical Circuit Graph Representation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In the domain of analog circuit design, the retrieval of circuit diagrams has drawn a great interest, primarily due to its vital role in the consultation of legacy designs and the detection of design plagiarism. Existing image retrieval techniques are adept at handling natural images, which converts images into feature vectors and retrieval similar images according to the closeness of these vectors. Nonetheless, these approaches exhibit limitations when applied to the more specialized and intricate domain of circuit diagrams. This paper presents a novel approach to circuit diagram retrieval by employing a graph representation of circuit diagrams, effectively reformulating the retrieval task as a graph retrieval problem. The proposed methodology consists of two principal components: a circuit diagram recognition algorithm designed to extract the circuit components and topological structure of the circuit using proposed GAM-YOLO model and a 2-step connected domain filtering algorithm, and a hierarchical retrieval strategy based on graph similarity and different graph representation methods for analog circuits. Our methodology pioneers the utilization of graph representation in the retrieval of circuit diagrams, incorporating topological features that are commonly overlooked by standard image retrieval methods. The results of our experiments substantiate the efficacy of our approach in retrieving circuit diagrams across of different types.


Channel Gain Map Construction based on Subregional Learning and Prediction

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

--The construction of channel gain map (CGM) is essential for realizing environment-aware wireless communications expected in 6G, for which a fundamental problem is how to predict the channel gains at unknown locations effectively by a finite number of measurements. As using a single prediction model is not effective in complex propagation environments, we propose a subregional learning-based CGM construction scheme, with which the entire map is divided into subregions via data-driven clustering, then individual models are constructed and trained for every subregion. In this way, specific propagation feature in each subregion can be better extracted with finite training data. Moreover, we propose to further improve prediction accuracy by uneven subregion sampling, as well as training data reuse around the subregion boundaries. Simulation results validate the effectiveness of the proposed scheme in CGM construction. To support the largely increased data demands and connection requirements, communication network is becoming more complex in the forthcoming 6G era [1]. This brings challenges to low-complexity network deployment optimization and transmission design [2]. Environment-aware communication provides a promising solution for this challenge, which requires communication-related environment information, also known as the channel knowledge map (CKM) [3], [4], as side information to be exploited when designing the system. In general, the CKM can be presented in terms of a site-specific database, which provides information of concerned channel parameters at given geometric locations. Depending on the particular channel information it conveys, different types of CKM have been studied, including the channel shadowing map [5], channel gain map (CGM) [6], and beam index map [7], etc. Different CKMs can be exploited for different tasks.


At the Mahakumbh, Faith Met Tragedy: Computational Analysis of Stampede Patterns Using Machine Learning and NLP

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This study employs machine learning, historical analysis, and natural language processing (NLP) to examine recurring lethal stampedes at Indias mass religious gatherings, focusing on the 2025 Mahakumbh tragedy in Prayagraj (48+ deaths) and its 1954 predecessor (700+ casualties). Through computational modeling of crowd dynamics and administrative records, it investigates how systemic vulnerabilities contribute to these disasters. Temporal trend analysis identifies persistent choke points, with narrow riverbank access routes linked to 92% of past stampede sites and lethal crowd densities (eight or more persons per square meter) recurring during spiritually significant moments like Mauni Amavasya. NLP analysis of seven decades of inquiry reports reveals cyclical administrative failures, where VIP route prioritization diverted safety resources in both 1954 and 2025, exacerbating fatalities. Statistical modeling demonstrates how ritual urgency overrides risk perception, leading to panic propagation patterns that mirror historical incidents. Findings support the Institutional Amnesia Theory, highlighting how disaster responses remain reactionary rather than preventive. By correlating archival patterns with computational crowd behavior analysis, this study frames stampedes as a collision of infrastructure limitations, socio spiritual urgency, and governance inertia, challenging disaster discourse to address how spiritual economies normalize preventable mortality.


Review for NeurIPS paper: On the linearity of large non-linear models: when and why the tangent kernel is constant

Neural Information Processing Systems

Additional Feedback: [Post Author Response] I thank the authors for responding to concerns and questions, which made me appreciate the paper better. As clarified by the authors there won't be issues with dual submission. I think the submission is good submission and will be general interest to NeurIPS community and suggest accepting. As regards to softmax, I agree with the authors when the output is softmax that current paper analysis holds. It would be interesting what would happen with softmax nonlinearities that appears in self-attention layers of Transformer architectures.


Synthesis of Model Predictive Control and Reinforcement Learning: Survey and Classification

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The fields of MPC and RL consider two successful control techniques for Markov decision processes. Both approaches are derived from similar fundamental principles, and both are widely used in practical applications, including robotics, process control, energy systems, and autonomous driving. Despite their similarities, MPC and RL follow distinct paradigms that emerged from diverse communities and different requirements. Various technical discrepancies, particularly the role of an environment model as part of the algorithm, lead to methodologies with nearly complementary advantages. Due to their orthogonal benefits, research interest in combination methods has recently increased significantly, leading to a large and growing set of complex ideas leveraging MPC and RL. This work illuminates the differences, similarities, and fundamentals that allow for different combination algorithms and categorizes existing work accordingly. Particularly, we focus on the versatile actor-critic RL approach as a basis for our categorization and examine how the online optimization approach of MPC can be used to improve the overall closed-loop performance of a policy.


DIME:Diffusion-Based Maximum Entropy Reinforcement Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Maximum entropy reinforcement learning (MaxEnt-RL) has become the standard approach to RL due to its beneficial exploration properties. Traditionally, policies are parameterized using Gaussian distributions, which significantly limits their representational capacity. Diffusion-based policies offer a more expressive alternative, yet integrating them into MaxEnt-RL poses challenges--primarily due to the intractability of computing their marginal entropy. To overcome this, we propose Diffusion-Based Maximum Entropy RL (DIME). DIME leverages recent advances in approximate inference with diffusion models to derive a lower bound on the maximum entropy objective. Additionally, we propose a policy iteration scheme that provably converges to the optimal diffusion policy. Our method enables the use of expressive diffusion-based policies while retaining the principled exploration benefits of MaxEnt-RL, significantly outperforming other diffusion-based methods on challenging high-dimensional control benchmarks. It is also competitive with state-of-the-art non-diffusion based RL methods while requiring fewer algorithmic design choices and smaller update-to-data ratios, reducing computational complexity.