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 Statistical Learning


Data-driven Modality Fusion: An AI-enabled Framework for Large-Scale Sensor Network Management

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The development and operation of smart cities relyheavily on large-scale Internet-of-Things (IoT) networks and sensor infrastructures that continuously monitor various aspects of urban environments. These networks generate vast amounts of data, posing challenges related to bandwidth usage, energy consumption, and system scalability. This paper introduces a novel sensing paradigm called Data-driven Modality Fusion (DMF), designed to enhance the efficiency of smart city IoT network management. By leveraging correlations between timeseries data from different sensing modalities, the proposed DMF approach reduces the number of physical sensors required for monitoring, thereby minimizing energy expenditure, communication bandwidth, and overall deployment costs. The framework relocates computational complexity from the edge devices to the core, ensuring that resource-constrained IoT devices are not burdened with intensive processing tasks. DMF is validated using data from a real-world IoT deployment in Madrid, demonstrating the effectiveness of the proposed system in accurately estimating traffic, environmental, and pollution metrics from a reduced set of sensors. The proposed solution offers a scalable, efficient mechanism for managing urban IoT networks, while addressing issues of sensor failure and privacy concerns.


Training-free Task-oriented Grasp Generation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper presents a training-free pipeline for task-oriented grasp generation that combines pre-trained grasp generation models with vision-language models (VLMs). Unlike traditional approaches that focus solely on stable grasps, our method incorporates task-specific requirements by leveraging the semantic reasoning capabilities of VLMs. We evaluate five querying strategies, each utilizing different visual representations of candidate grasps, and demonstrate significant improvements over a baseline method in both grasp success and task compliance rates, with absolute gains of up to 36.9% in overall success rate. Our results underline the potential of VLMs to enhance task-oriented manipulation, providing insights for future research in robotic grasping and human-robot interaction.


Conformal Prediction for Electricity Price Forecasting in the Day-Ahead and Real-Time Balancing Market

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The integration of renewable energy into electricity markets poses significant challenges to price stability and increases the complexity of market operations. Accurate and reliable electricity price forecasting is crucial for effective market participation, where price dynamics can be significantly more challenging to predict. Probabilistic forecasting, through prediction intervals, efficiently quantifies the inherent uncertainties in electricity prices, supporting better decision-making for market participants. This study explores the enhancement of probabilistic price prediction using Conformal Prediction (CP) techniques, specifically Ensemble Batch Prediction Intervals and Sequential Predictive Conformal Inference. These methods provide precise and reliable prediction intervals, outperforming traditional models in validity metrics. We propose an ensemble approach that combines the efficiency of quantile regression models with the robust coverage properties of time series adapted CP techniques. This ensemble delivers both narrow prediction intervals and high coverage, leading to more reliable and accurate forecasts. We further evaluate the practical implications of CP techniques through a simulated trading algorithm applied to a battery storage system. The ensemble approach demonstrates improved financial returns in energy trading in both the Day-Ahead and Balancing Markets, highlighting its practical benefits for market participants.


TLXML: Task-Level Explanation of Meta-Learning via Influence Functions

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The scheme of adaptation via meta-learning is seen as an ingredient for solving the problem of data shortage or distribution shift in real-world applications, but it also brings the new risk of inappropriate updates of the model in the user environment, which increases the demand for explainability. Among the various types of XAI methods, establishing a method of explanation based on past experience in meta-learning requires special consideration due to its bi-level structure of training, which has been left unexplored. In this work, we propose influence functions for explaining meta-learning that measure the sensitivities of training tasks to adaptation and inference. We also argue that the approximation of the Hessian using the Gauss-Newton matrix resolves computational barriers peculiar to meta-learning. We demonstrate the adequacy of the method through experiments on task distinction and task distribution distinction using image classification tasks with MAML and Prototypical Network.


Long-tailed Medical Diagnosis with Relation-aware Representation Learning and Iterative Classifier Calibration

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Recently computer-aided diagnosis has demonstrated promising performance, effectively alleviating the workload of clinicians. However, the inherent sample imbalance among different diseases leads algorithms biased to the majority categories, leading to poor performance for rare categories. Existing works formulated this challenge as a long-tailed problem and attempted to tackle it by decoupling the feature representation and classification. Yet, due to the imbalanced distribution and limited samples from tail classes, these works are prone to biased representation learning and insufficient classifier calibration. To tackle these problems, we propose a new Long-tailed Medical Diagnosis (LMD) framework for balanced medical image classification on long-tailed datasets. In the initial stage, we develop a Relation-aware Representation Learning (RRL) scheme to boost the representation ability by encouraging the encoder to capture intrinsic semantic features through different data augmentations. In the subsequent stage, we propose an Iterative Classifier Calibration (ICC) scheme to calibrate the classifier iteratively. This is achieved by generating a large number of balanced virtual features and fine-tuning the encoder using an Expectation-Maximization manner. The proposed ICC compensates for minority categories to facilitate unbiased classifier optimization while maintaining the diagnostic knowledge in majority classes. Comprehensive experiments on three public long-tailed medical datasets demonstrate that our LMD framework significantly surpasses state-of-the-art approaches. The source code can be accessed at https://github.com/peterlipan/LMD.


Understanding Federated Learning from IID to Non-IID dataset: An Experimental Study

arXiv.org Machine Learning

As privacy concerns and data regulations grow, federated learning (FL) has emerged as a promising approach for training machine learning models across decentralized data sources without sharing raw data. However, a significant challenge in FL is that client data are often non-IID (non-independent and identically distributed), leading to reduced performance compared to centralized learning. While many methods have been proposed to address this issue, their underlying mechanisms are often viewed from different perspectives. Through a comprehensive investigation from gradient descent to FL, and from IID to non-IID data settings, we find that inconsistencies in client loss landscapes primarily cause performance degradation in non-IID scenarios. From this understanding, we observe that existing methods can be grouped into two main strategies: (i) adjusting parameter update paths and (ii) modifying client loss landscapes. These findings offer a clear perspective on addressing non-IID challenges in FL and help guide future research in the field.


Data-Parallel Neural Network Training via Nonlinearly Preconditioned Trust-Region Method

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Parallel training methods are increasingly relevant in machine learning (ML) due to the continuing growth in model and dataset sizes. We propose a variant of the Additively Preconditioned Trust-Region Strategy (APTS) for training deep neural networks (DNNs). The proposed APTS method utilizes a data-parallel approach to construct a nonlinear preconditioner employed in the nonlinear optimization strategy. In contrast to the common employment of Stochastic Gradient Descent (SGD) and Adaptive Moment Estimation (Adam), which are both variants of gradient descent (GD) algorithms, the APTS method implicitly adjusts the step sizes in each iteration, thereby removing the need for costly hyperparameter tuning. We demonstrate the performance of the proposed APTS variant using the MNIST and CIFAR-10 datasets. The results obtained indicate that the APTS variant proposed here achieves comparable validation accuracy to SGD and Adam, all while allowing for parallel training and obviating the need for expensive hyperparameter tuning.


Lightweight Operations for Visual Speech Recognition

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Visual speech recognition (VSR), which decodes spoken words from video data, offers significant benefits, particularly when audio is unavailable. However, the high dimensionality of video data leads to prohibitive computational costs that demand powerful hardware, limiting VSR deployment on resource-constrained devices. This work addresses this limitation by developing lightweight VSR architectures. Leveraging efficient operation design paradigms, we create compact yet powerful models with reduced resource requirements and minimal accuracy loss. We train and evaluate our models on a large-scale public dataset for recognition of words from video sequences, demonstrating their effectiveness for practical applications. We also conduct an extensive array of ablative experiments to thoroughly analyze the size and complexity of each model. Code and trained models will be made publicly available.


Online Covariance Estimation in Nonsmooth Stochastic Approximation

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We consider applying stochastic approximation (SA) methods to solve nonsmooth variational inclusion problems. Existing studies have shown that the averaged iterates of SA methods exhibit asymptotic normality, with an optimal limiting covariance matrix in the local minimax sense of H\'ajek and Le Cam. However, no methods have been proposed to estimate this covariance matrix in a nonsmooth and potentially non-monotone (nonconvex) setting. In this paper, we study an online batch-means covariance matrix estimator introduced in Zhu et al.(2023). The estimator groups the SA iterates appropriately and computes the sample covariance among batches as an estimate of the limiting covariance. Its construction does not require prior knowledge of the total sample size, and updates can be performed recursively as new data arrives. We establish that, as long as the batch size sequence is properly specified (depending on the stepsize sequence), the estimator achieves a convergence rate of order $O(\sqrt{d}n^{-1/8+\varepsilon})$ for any $\varepsilon>0$, where $d$ and $n$ denote the problem dimensionality and the number of iterations (or samples) used. Although the problem is nonsmooth and potentially non-monotone (nonconvex), our convergence rate matches the best-known rate for covariance estimation methods using only first-order information in smooth and strongly-convex settings. The consistency of this covariance estimator enables asymptotically valid statistical inference, including constructing confidence intervals and performing hypothesis testing.


Probabilistic Subspace Manifolds for Contextual Inference in Large Language Models

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Representing token embeddings as probability distributions over learned manifolds allows for more flexible contextual inference, reducing representational rigidity while enhancing semantic granularity. Comparative evaluations demonstrate that probabilistic embeddings improve neighborhood consistency and decrease redundancy, ensuring that token relationships remain more structurally coherent across fine-tuning iterations. The integration of probabilistic subspaces within attention mechanisms facilitates more adaptive contextual weighting, enabling models to capture latent dependencies that would otherwise be obscured in conventional embeddings. Experimental results highlight increased robustness against adversarial modifications, with probabilistic embeddings preserving contextual integrity even under perturbation-based evaluation scenarios. Performance assessments indicate that probabilistic representations achieve greater adaptability in domain-specific applications, mitigating the need for extensive retraining when shifting across linguistic domains. Computational trade-offs remain within operationally feasible limits, with marginal increases in inference latency balanced against the benefits of enhanced representation stability and contextual expressiveness. The capacity to encode structured uncertainty provides advantages in generative modeling tasks, particularly where maintaining coherence across extended sequences requires a representation framework capable of handling ambiguous or context-dependent linguistic constructs.