Predicting medical events in advance within critical care settings is paramount for patient outcomes and resource management. Utilizing predictive models, healthcare providers can anticipate issues such as cardiac arrest, sepsis, or respiratory failure before they manifest. Recently, there has been a surge in research focusing on forecasting adverse medical event onsets prior to clinical manifestation using machine learning. However, while these models provide temporal prognostic predictions for the occurrence of a specific adverse event of interest within defined time intervals, their interpretability often remains a challenge. In this work, we explore the applicability of neural temporal point processes in the context of adverse event onset prediction, with the aim of explaining clinical pathways and providing interpretable insights. Our experiments span six state-of-the-art neural point processes and six critical care datasets, each focusing on the onset of distinct adverse events. This work represents a novel application class of neural temporal point processes in event prediction.

Modern machine learning methods have recently demonstrated remarkable capability to generalize under task shift, where latent knowledge is transferred to a different, often more difficult, task under a similar data distribution. We investigate this phenomenon in an overparameterized linear regression setting where the task shifts from classification during training to regression during evaluation. In the zero-shot case, wherein no regression data is available, we prove that task shift is impossible in both sparse signal and random signal models for any Gaussian covariate distribution. In the few-shot case, wherein limited regression data is available, we propose a simple postprocessing algorithm which asymptotically recovers the ground-truth predictor. Our analysis leverages a fine-grained characterization of individual parameters arising from minimum-norm interpolation which may be of independent interest. Our results show that while minimum-norm interpolators for classification cannot transfer to regression a priori, they experience surprisingly structured attenuation which enables successful task shift with limited additional data.

Poor data quality limits the advantageous power of Machine Learning (ML) and weakens high-performing ML software systems. Nowadays, data are more prone to the risk of poor quality due to their increasing volume and complexity. Therefore, tedious and time-consuming work goes into data preparation and improvement before moving further in the ML pipeline. To address this challenge, we propose an intelligent data-centric evaluation framework that can identify high-quality data and improve the performance of an ML system. The proposed framework combines the curation of quality measurements and unsupervised learning to distinguish high- and low-quality data. The framework is designed to integrate flexible and general-purpose methods so that it is deployed in various domains and applications. To validate the outcomes of the designed framework, we implemented it in a real-world use case from the field of analytical chemistry, where it is tested on three datasets of anti-sense oligonucleotides. A domain expert is consulted to identify the relevant quality measurements and evaluate the outcomes of the framework. The results show that the quality-centric data evaluation framework identifies the characteristics of high-quality data that guide the conduct of efficient laboratory experiments and consequently improve the performance of the ML system.

Learning for animals or humans is the process that leads to behaviors better adapted to the environment. This process highly depends on the individual that learns and is usually observed only through the individual's actions. This article presents ways to use this individual behavioral data to find the model that best explains how the individual learns. We propose two model selection methods: a general hold-out procedure and an AIC-type criterion, both adapted to non-stationary dependent data. We provide theoretical error bounds for these methods that are close to those of the standard i.i.d. case. To compare these approaches, we apply them to contextual bandit models and illustrate their use on both synthetic and experimental learning data in a human categorization task.

The instrumental variable (IV) approach is commonly used to infer causal effects in the presence of unmeasured confounding. Existing methods typically aim to estimate the mean causal effects, whereas a few other methods focus on quantile treatment effects. The aim of this work is to estimate the entire interventional distribution. We propose a method called Distributional Instrumental Variable (DIV), which uses generative modelling in a nonlinear IV setting. We establish identifiability of the interventional distribution under general assumptions and demonstrate an 'under-identified' case, where DIV can identify the causal effects while two-step least squares fails to. Our empirical results show that the DIV method performs well for a broad range of simulated data, exhibiting advantages over existing IV approaches in terms of the identifiability and estimation error of the mean or quantile treatment effects. Furthermore, we apply DIV to an economic data set to examine the causal relation between institutional quality and economic development and our results align well with the original study. We also apply DIV to a single-cell data set, where we study the generalizability and stability in predicting gene expression under unseen interventions. The software implementations of DIV are available in R and Python.

The 3D Gaussian Splatting (3DGS)-based SLAM system has garnered widespread attention due to its excellent performance in real-time high-fidelity rendering. However, in real-world environments with dynamic objects, existing 3DGS-based SLAM systems often face mapping errors and tracking drift issues. To address these problems, we propose GARAD-SLAM, a real-time 3DGS-based SLAM system tailored for dynamic scenes. In terms of tracking, unlike traditional methods, we directly perform dynamic segmentation on Gaussians and map them back to the front-end to obtain dynamic point labels through a Gaussian pyramid network, achieving precise dynamic removal and robust tracking. For mapping, we impose rendering penalties on dynamically labeled Gaussians, which are updated through the network, to avoid irreversible erroneous removal caused by simple pruning. Our results on real-world datasets demonstrate that our method is competitive in tracking compared to baseline methods, generating fewer artifacts and higher-quality reconstructions in rendering.

We explore the relationship between causality, symmetry, and compression. We build on and generalize the known connection between learning and compression to a setting where causal models are not identifiable. We propose a framework where causality emerges as a consequence of compressing data across multiple environments. We define algorithmic causality as an alternative definition of causality when traditional assumptions for causal identifiability do not hold. We demonstrate how algorithmic causal and symmetric structures can emerge from minimizing upper bounds on Kolmogorov complexity, without knowledge of intervention targets. We hypothesize that these insights may also provide a novel perspective on the emergence of causality in machine learning models, such as large language models, where causal relationships may not be explicitly identifiable.

Learned Index Structures (LIS) have significantly advanced data management by leveraging machine learning models to optimize data indexing. However, designing these structures often involves critical trade-offs, making it challenging for both designers and end-users to find an optimal balance tailored to specific workloads and scenarios. While some indexes offer adjustable parameters that demand intensive manual tuning, others rely on fixed configurations based on heuristic auto-tuners or expert knowledge, which may not consistently deliver optimal performance. This paper introduces LITune, a novel framework for end-to-end automatic tuning of Learned Index Structures. LITune employs an adaptive training pipeline equipped with a tailor-made Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) approach to ensure stable and efficient tuning. To accommodate long-term dynamics arising from online tuning, we further enhance LITune with an on-the-fly updating mechanism termed the O2 system. These innovations allow LITune to effectively capture state transitions in online tuning scenarios and dynamically adjust to changing data distributions and workloads, marking a significant improvement over other tuning methods. Our experimental results demonstrate that LITune achieves up to a 98% reduction in runtime and a 17-fold increase in throughput compared to default parameter settings given a selected Learned Index instance. These findings highlight LITune's effectiveness and its potential to facilitate broader adoption of LIS in real-world applications.

The performance of imitation learning policies often hinges on the datasets with which they are trained. Consequently, investment in data collection for robotics has grown across both industrial and academic labs. However, despite the marked increase in the quantity of demonstrations collected, little work has sought to assess the quality of said data despite mounting evidence of its importance in other areas such as vision and language. In this work, we take a critical step towards addressing the data quality in robotics. Given a dataset of demonstrations, we aim to estimate the relative quality of individual demonstrations in terms of both state diversity and action predictability. To do so, we estimate the average contribution of a trajectory towards the mutual information between states and actions in the entire dataset, which precisely captures both the entropy of the state distribution and the state-conditioned entropy of actions. Though commonly used mutual information estimators require vast amounts of data often beyond the scale available in robotics, we introduce a novel technique based on k-nearest neighbor estimates of mutual information on top of simple VAE embeddings of states and actions. Empirically, we demonstrate that our approach is able to partition demonstration datasets by quality according to human expert scores across a diverse set of benchmarks spanning simulation and real world environments. Moreover, training policies based on data filtered by our method leads to a 5-10% improvement in RoboMimic and better performance on real ALOHA and Franka setups.

We present ExoMiner++, an enhanced deep learning model that builds on the success of ExoMiner to improve transit signal classification in 2-minute TESS data. ExoMiner++ incorporates additional diagnostic inputs, including periodogram, flux trend, difference image, unfolded flux, and spacecraft attitude control data, all of which are crucial for effectively distinguishing transit signals from more challenging sources of false positives. To further enhance performance, we leverage transfer learning from high-quality labeled data from the Kepler space telescope, mitigating the impact of TESS's noisier and more ambiguous labels. ExoMiner++ achieves high accuracy across various classification and ranking metrics, significantly narrowing the search space for follow-up investigations to confirm new planets. To serve the exoplanet community, we introduce new TESS catalogs containing ExoMiner++ classifications and confidence scores for each transit signal. Among the 147,568 unlabeled TCEs, ExoMiner++ identifies 7,330 as planet candidates, with the remainder classified as false positives. These 7,330 planet candidates correspond to 1,868 existing TESS Objects of Interest (TOIs), 69 Community TESS Objects of Interest (CTOIs), and 50 newly introduced CTOIs. 1,797 out of the 2,506 TOIs previously labeled as planet candidates in ExoFOP are classified as planet candidates by ExoMiner++. This reduction in plausible candidates combined with the excellent ranking quality of ExoMiner++ allows the follow-up efforts to be focused on the most likely candidates, increasing the overall planet yield.