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 Statistical Learning


Type 1 Diabetes Management using GLIMMER: Glucose Level Indicator Model with Modified Error Rate

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Managing Type 1 Diabetes (T1D) demands constant vigilance as individuals strive to regulate their blood glucose levels to avert the dangers of dysglycemia (hyperglycemia or hypoglycemia). Despite the advent of sophisticated technologies such as automated insulin delivery (AID) systems, achieving optimal glycemic control remains a formidable task. AID systems integrate continuous subcutaneous insulin infusion (CSII) and continuous glucose monitors (CGM) data, offering promise in reducing variability and increasing glucose time-in-range. However, these systems often fail to prevent dysglycemia, partly due to limitations in prediction algorithms that lack the precision to avert abnormal glucose events. This gap highlights the need for proactive behavioral adjustments. We address this need with GLIMMER, Glucose Level Indicator Model with Modified Error Rate, a machine learning approach for forecasting blood glucose levels. GLIMMER categorizes glucose values into normal and abnormal ranges and devises a novel custom loss function to prioritize accuracy in dysglycemic events where patient safety is critical. To evaluate the potential of GLIMMER for T1D management, we both use a publicly available dataset and collect new data involving 25 patients with T1D. In predicting next-hour glucose values, GLIMMER achieved a root mean square error (RMSE) of 23.97 (+/-3.77) and a mean absolute error (MAE) of 15.83 (+/-2.09) mg/dL. These results reflect a 23% improvement in RMSE and a 31% improvement in MAE compared to the best-reported error rates.


Dual-level Mixup for Graph Few-shot Learning with Fewer Tasks

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Graph neural networks have been demonstrated as a powerful paradigm for effectively learning graph-structured data on the web and mining content from it.Current leading graph models require a large number of labeled samples for training, which unavoidably leads to overfitting in few-shot scenarios. Recent research has sought to alleviate this issue by simultaneously leveraging graph learning and meta-learning paradigms. However, these graph meta-learning models assume the availability of numerous meta-training tasks to learn transferable meta-knowledge. Such assumption may not be feasible in the real world due to the difficulty of constructing tasks and the substantial costs involved. Therefore, we propose a SiMple yet effectIve approach for graph few-shot Learning with fEwer tasks, named SMILE. We introduce a dual-level mixup strategy, encompassing both within-task and across-task mixup, to simultaneously enrich the available nodes and tasks in meta-learning. Moreover, we explicitly leverage the prior information provided by the node degrees in the graph to encode expressive node representations. Theoretically, we demonstrate that SMILE can enhance the model generalization ability. Empirically, SMILE consistently outperforms other competitive models by a large margin across all evaluated datasets with in-domain and cross-domain settings. Our anonymous code can be found here.


Cluster Analysis and Concept Drift Detection in Malware

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Concept drift refers to gradual or sudden changes in the properties of data that affect the accuracy of machine learning models. In this paper, we address the problem of concept drift detection in the malware domain. Specifically, we propose and analyze a clustering-based approach to detecting concept drift. Using a subset of the KronoDroid dataset, malware samples are partitioned into temporal batches and analyzed using MiniBatch $K$-Means clustering. The silhouette coefficient is used as a metric to identify points in time where concept drift has likely occurred. To verify our drift detection results, we train learning models under three realistic scenarios, which we refer to as static training, periodic retraining, and drift-aware retraining. In each scenario, we consider four supervised classifiers, namely, Multilayer Perceptron (MLP), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Random Forest, and XGBoost. Experimental results demonstrate that drift-aware retraining guided by silhouette coefficient thresholding achieves classification accuracy far superior to static models, and generally within 1% of periodic retraining, while also being far more efficient than periodic retraining. These results provide strong evidence that our clustering-based approach is effective at detecting concept drift, while also illustrating a highly practical and efficient fully automated approach to improved malware classification via concept drift detection.


CND-IDS: Continual Novelty Detection for Intrusion Detection Systems

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

--Intrusion detection systems (IDS) play a crucial role in IoT and network security by monitoring system data and alerting to suspicious activities. Machine learning (ML) has emerged as a promising solution for IDS, offering highly accurate intrusion detection. However, ML-IDS solutions often overlook two critical aspects needed to build reliable systems: continually changing data streams and a lack of attack labels. Streaming network traffic and associated cyber attacks are continually changing, which can degrade the performance of deployed ML models. Labeling attack data, such as zero-day attacks, in real-world intrusion scenarios may not be feasible, making the use of ML solutions that do not rely on attack labels necessary. T o address both these challenges, we propose CND-IDS, a continual novelty detection IDS framework which consists of (i) a learning-based feature extractor that continuously updates new feature representations of the system data, and (ii) a novelty detector that identifies new cyber attacks by leveraging principal component analysis (PCA) reconstruction. Our results on realistic intrusion datasets show that CND-IDS achieves up to 6.1 F-score improvement, and up to 6.5 improved forward transfer over the SOT A unsupervised continual learning algorithm. Our code will be released upon acceptance. I NTRODUCTION In today's digital landscape, cybersecurity is essential for safeguarding sensitive data and maintaining trust in digital systems. With cyber threats becoming more sophisticated, organizations must adopt thorough security measures to protect against breaches and unauthorized access [1].


Learning from End User Data with Shuffled Differential Privacy over Kernel Densities

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We study a setting of collecting and learning from private data distributed across end users. In the shuffled model of differential privacy, the end users partially protect their data locally before sharing it, and their data is also anonymized during its collection to enhance privacy. This model has recently become a prominent alternative to central DP, which requires full trust in a central data curator, and local DP, where fully local data protection takes a steep toll on downstream accuracy. Our main technical result is a shuffled DP protocol for privately estimating the kernel density function of a distributed dataset, with accuracy essentially matching central DP . We use it to privately learn a classifier from the end user data, by learning a private density function per class. Moreover, we show that the density function itself can recover the semantic content of its class, despite having been learned in the absence of any unprotected data. Our experiments show the favorable downstream performance of our approach, and highlight key downstream considerations and trade-offs in a practical ML deployment of shuffled DP . Collecting statistics on end user data is commonly required in data analytics and machine learning. As it could leak private user information, privacy guarantees need to be incorporated into the data collection pipeline. Differential Privacy (DP) (Dwork et al., 2006) currently serves as the gold standard for privacy in machine learning. Most of its success has been in the central DP model, where a centralized data curator holds the private data of all the users and is charged with protecting their privacy. However, this model does not address how to collect the data from end users in the first place. The local DP model (Kasiviswanathan et al., 2011), where end users protect the privacy of their data locally before sharing it, is often used for private data collection (Erlingsson et al., 2014; Ding et al., 2017; Apple, 2017). However, compared to central DP, local DP often comes at a steep price of degraded accuracy in downstream uses of the collected data. The shuffled DP model (Bittau et al., 2017; Cheu et al., 2019; Erlingsson et al., 2019) has recently emerged as a prominent intermediate alternative. In this model, the users partially protect their data locally, and then entrust a centralized authority--called the "shuffler"--with the single operation of shuffling (or anonymizing) the data from all participating users.


EfficientPose 6D: Scalable and Efficient 6D Object Pose Estimation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In industrial applications requiring real-time feedback, such as quality control and robotic manipulation, the demand for high-speed and accurate pose estimation remains critical. Despite advances improving speed and accuracy in pose estimation, finding a balance between computational efficiency and accuracy poses significant challenges in dynamic environments. Most current algorithms lack scalability in estimation time, especially for diverse datasets, and the state-of-the-art (SOTA) methods are often too slow. This study focuses on developing a fast and scalable set of pose estimators based on GDRNPP to meet or exceed current benchmarks in accuracy and robustness, particularly addressing the efficiency-accuracy trade-off essential in real-time scenarios. We propose the AMIS algorithm to tailor the utilized model according to an application-specific trade-off between inference time and accuracy. We further show the effectiveness of the AMIS-based model choice on four prominent benchmark datasets (LM-O, YCB-V, T-LESS, and ITODD).


Position: There are no Champions in Long-Term Time Series Forecasting

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Recent advances in long-term time series forecasting have introduced numerous complex prediction models that consistently outperform previously published architectures. However, this rapid progression raises concerns regarding inconsistent benchmarking and reporting practices, which may undermine the reliability of these comparisons. Our position emphasizes the need to shift focus away from pursuing ever-more complex models and towards enhancing benchmarking practices through rigorous and standardized evaluation methods. To support our claim, we first perform a broad, thorough, and reproducible evaluation of the top-performing models on the most popular benchmark by training 3,500+ networks over 14 datasets. Then, through a comprehensive analysis, we find that slight changes to experimental setups or current evaluation metrics drastically shift the common belief that newly published results are advancing the state of the art. Our findings suggest the need for rigorous and standardized evaluation methods that enable more substantiated claims, including reproducible hyperparameter setups and statistical testing.


Dynamic Activation with Knowledge Distillation for Energy-Efficient Spiking NN Ensembles

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

--While foundation AI models excel at tasks like classification and decision-making, their high energy consumption makes them unsuitable for energy-constrained applications. Inspired by the brain's efficiency, spiking neural networks (SNNs) have emerged as a viable alternative due to their event-driven nature and compatibility with neuromorphic chips. This work introduces a novel system that combines knowledge distillation and ensemble learning to bridge the performance gap between artificial neural networks (ANNs) and SNNs. A foundation AI model acts as a teacher network, guiding smaller student SNNs organized into an ensemble, called Spiking Neural Ensemble (SNE). SNE enables the disentanglement of the teacher's knowledge, allowing each student to specialize in predicting a distinct aspect of it, while processing the same input. The core innovation of SNE is the adaptive activation of a subset of SNN models of an ensemble, leveraging knowledge-distillation, enhanced with an informed-partitioning (disentanglement) of the teacher's feature space. Moreover, SNE is significantly more efficient than the teacher network, reducing computational requirements by up to 20x with only a 2% drop in accuracy on the CIF AR-10 dataset. This disentanglement procedure achieves an accuracy improvement of up to 2.4% on the CIF AR-10 dataset compared to other partitioning schemes. Finally, we comparatively analyze SNE performance under noisy conditions, demonstrating enhanced robustness compared to its ANN teacher . In summary, SNE offers a promising new direction for energy-constrained applications. Foundation AI is repeatedly breaking ground in computer vision and machine learning [1], [2], with advancements at dramatic speed across various domains, including image and video classification, semantic segmentation, depth estimation, image captioning, and decision-making.


I Want 'Em All (At Once) -- Ultrametric Cluster Hierarchies

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Hierarchical clustering is a powerful tool for exploratory data analysis, organizing data into a tree of clusterings from which a partition can be chosen. This paper generalizes these ideas by proving that, for any reasonable hierarchy, one can optimally solve any center-based clustering objective over it (such as $k$-means). Moreover, these solutions can be found exceedingly quickly and are themselves necessarily hierarchical. Thus, given a cluster tree, we show that one can quickly access a plethora of new, equally meaningful hierarchies. Just as in standard hierarchical clustering, one can then choose any desired partition from these new hierarchies. We conclude by verifying the utility of our proposed techniques across datasets, hierarchies, and partitioning schemes.


Continually Learning Structured Visual Representations via Network Refinement with Rerelation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Current machine learning paradigm relies on continuous representations like neural networks, which iteratively adjust parameters to approximate outcomes rather than directly learning the structure of problem. This spreads information across the network, causing issues like information loss and incomprehensibility Building on prior work in environment dynamics modeling, we propose a method that learns visual space in a structured, continual manner. Our approach refines networks to capture the core structure of objects while representing significant subvariants in structure efficiently. We demonstrate this with 2D shape detection, showing incremental learning on MNIST without overwriting knowledge and creating compact, comprehensible representations. These results offer a promising step toward a transparent, continually learning alternative to traditional neural networks for visual processing.