Statistical Learning
Data Analysis Prediction over Multiple Unseen Datasets: A Vector Embedding Approach
Loizou, Andreas, Tsoumakos, Dimitrios
The massive increase in the data volume and dataset availability for analysts compels researchers to focus on data content and select high-quality datasets to enhance the performance of analytics operators. While selecting the highest quality data for analysis highly increases task accuracy and efficiency, it is still a hard task, especially when the number of available inputs is very large. To address this issue, we propose a novel methodology that infers the outcome of analytics operators by creating a model from datasets similar to the queried one. Dataset similarity is performed via projecting each dataset to a vector embedding representation. The vectorization process is performed using our proposed deep learning model NumTabData2Vec, which takes a whole dataset and projects it into a lower vector embedding representation space. Through experimental evaluation, we compare the prediction performance and the execution time of our framework to another state-of-the-art modelling operator framework, illustrating that our approach predicts analytics outcomes accurately. Furthermore, our vectorization model can project different real-world scenarios to a lower vector embedding representation and distinguish between them.
Advancing Eurasia Fire Understanding Through Machine Learning Techniques
Modern fire management systems increasingly rely on satellite data and weather forecasting; however, access to comprehensive datasets remains limited due to proprietary restrictions. Despite the ecological significance of wildfires, large-scale, multi-regional research is constrained by data scarcity. Russian diverse ecosystems play a crucial role in shaping Eurasian fire dynamics, yet they remain underexplored. This study addresses existing gaps by introducing an open-access dataset that captures detailed fire incidents alongside corresponding meteorological conditions. We present one of the most extensive datasets available for wildfire analysis in Russia, covering 13 consecutive months of observations. Leveraging machine learning techniques, we conduct exploratory data analysis and develop predictive models to identify key fire behavior patterns across different fire categories and ecosystems. Our results highlight the critical influence of environmental factor patterns on fire occurrence and spread behavior. By improving the understanding of wildfire dynamics in Eurasia, this work contributes to more effective, data-driven approaches for proactive fire management in the face of evolving environmental conditions.
Moving Past Single Metrics: Exploring Short-Text Clustering Across Multiple Resolutions
Miller, Justin, Alexander, Tristram
Cluster number is typically a parameter selected at the outset in clustering problems, and while impactful, the choice can often be difficult to justify. Inspired by bioinformatics, this study examines how the nature of clusters varies with cluster number, presenting a method for determining cluster robustness, and providing a systematic method for deciding on the cluster number. The study focuses specifically on short-text clustering, involving 30,000 political Twitter bios, where the sparse co-occurrence of words between texts makes finding meaningful clusters challenging. A metric of proportional stability is introduced to uncover the stability of specific clusters between cluster resolutions, and the results are visualised using Sankey diagrams to provide an interrogative tool for understanding the nature of the dataset. The visualisation provides an intuitive way to track cluster subdivision and reorganisation as cluster number increases, offering insights that static, single-resolution metrics cannot capture. The results show that instead of seeking a single 'optimal' solution, choosing a cluster number involves balancing informativeness and complexity.
All You Need for Counterfactual Explainability Is Principled and Reliable Estimate of Aleatoric and Epistemic Uncertainty
Sokol, Kacper, Hรผllermeier, Eyke
This position paper argues that, to its detriment, transparency research overlooks many foundational concepts of artificial intelligence. Here, we focus on uncertainty quantification -- in the context of ante-hoc interpretability and counterfactual explainability -- showing how its adoption could address key challenges in the field. First, we posit that uncertainty and ante-hoc interpretability offer complementary views of the same underlying idea; second, we assert that uncertainty provides a principled unifying framework for counterfactual explainability. Consequently, inherently transparent models can benefit from human-centred explanatory insights -- like counterfactuals -- which are otherwise missing. At a higher level, integrating artificial intelligence fundamentals into transparency research promises to yield more reliable, robust and understandable predictive models.
Deep Minimax Classifiers for Imbalanced Datasets with a Small Number of Minority Samples
The concept of a minimax classifier is well-established in statistical decision theory, but its implementation via neural networks remains challenging, particularly in scenarios with imbalanced training data having a limited number of samples for minority classes. To address this issue, we propose a novel minimax learning algorithm designed to minimize the risk of worst-performing classes. Our algorithm iterates through two steps: a minimization step that trains the model based on a selected target prior, and a maximization step that updates the target prior towards the adversarial prior for the trained model. In the minimization, we introduce a targeted logit-adjustment loss function that efficiently identifies optimal decision boundaries under the target prior. Moreover, based on a new prior-dependent generalization bound that we obtained, we theoretically prove that our loss function has a better generalization capability than existing loss functions. During the maximization, we refine the target prior by shifting it towards the adversarial prior, depending on the worst-performing classes rather than on per-class risk estimates. Our maximization method is particularly robust in the regime of a small number of samples. Additionally, to adapt to overparameterized neural networks, we partition the entire training dataset into two subsets: one for model training during the minimization step and the other for updating the target prior during the maximization step. Our proposed algorithm has a provable convergence property, and empirical results indicate that our algorithm performs better than or is comparable to existing methods. All codes are publicly available at https://github.com/hansung-choi/TLA-linear-ascent.
Achieving Fair PCA Using Joint Eigenvalue Decomposition
Rathore, Vidhi, Manwani, Naresh
Principal Component Analysis (PCA) is a widely used method for dimensionality reduction, but it often overlooks fairness, especially when working with data that includes demographic characteristics. This can lead to biased representations that disproportionately affect certain groups. To address this issue, our approach incorporates Joint Eigenvalue Decomposition (JEVD), a technique that enables the simultaneous diagonalization of multiple matrices, ensuring both fair and efficient representations. We formally show that the optimal solution of JEVD leads to a fair PCA solution. By integrating JEVD with PCA, we strike an optimal balance between preserving data structure and promoting fairness across diverse groups. We demonstrate that our method outperforms existing baseline approaches in fairness and representational quality on various datasets. It retains the core advantages of PCA while ensuring that sensitive demographic attributes do not create disparities in the reduced representation.
Functional Bayesian Additive Regression Trees with Shape Constraints
Cao, Jiahao, He, Shiyuan, Zhang, Bohai
Motivated by the great success of Bayesian additive regression trees (BART) on regression, we propose a nonparametric Bayesian approach for the function-on-scalar regression problem, termed as Functional BART (FBART). Utilizing spline-based function representation and tree-based domain partition model, FBART offers great flexibility in characterizing the complex and heterogeneous relationship between the response curve and scalar covariates. We devise a tailored Bayesian backfitting algorithm for estimating the parameters in the FBART model. Furthermore, we introduce an FBART model with shape constraints on the response curve, enhancing estimation and prediction performance when prior shape information of response curves is available. By incorporating a shape-constrained prior, we ensure that the posterior samples of the response curve satisfy the required shape constraints (e.g., monotonicity and/or convexity). Our proposed FBART model and its shape-constrained version are the new advances of BART models for functional data. Under certain regularity conditions, we derive the posterior convergence results for both FBART and its shape-constrained version. Finally, the superiority of the proposed methods over other competitive counterparts is validated through simulation experiments under various settings and analyses of two real datasets.
Provable Benefits of Unsupervised Pre-training and Transfer Learning via Single-Index Models
Jones-McCormick, Taj, Jagannath, Aukosh, Sen, Subhabrata
Unsupervised pre-training and transfer learning are commonly used techniques to initialize training algorithms for neural networks, particularly in settings with limited labeled data. In this paper, we study the effects of unsupervised pre-training and transfer learning on the sample complexity of high-dimensional supervised learning. Specifically, we consider the problem of training a single-layer neural network via online stochastic gradient descent. We establish that pre-training and transfer learning (under concept shift) reduce sample complexity by polynomial factors (in the dimension) under very general assumptions. We also uncover some surprising settings where pre-training grants exponential improvement over random initialization in terms of sample complexity.
Posterior Inference with Diffusion Models for High-dimensional Black-box Optimization
Yun, Taeyoung, Om, Kiyoung, Lee, Jaewoo, Yun, Sujin, Park, Jinkyoo
Optimizing high-dimensional and complex black-box functions is crucial in numerous scientific applications. While Bayesian optimization (BO) is a powerful method for sample-efficient optimization, it struggles with the curse of dimensionality and scaling to thousands of evaluations. Recently, leveraging generative models to solve black-box optimization problems has emerged as a promising framework. However, those methods often underperform compared to BO methods due to limited expressivity and difficulty of uncertainty estimation in high-dimensional spaces. To overcome these issues, we introduce \textbf{DiBO}, a novel framework for solving high-dimensional black-box optimization problems. Our method iterates two stages. First, we train a diffusion model to capture the data distribution and an ensemble of proxies to predict function values with uncertainty quantification. Second, we cast the candidate selection as a posterior inference problem to balance exploration and exploitation in high-dimensional spaces. Concretely, we fine-tune diffusion models to amortize posterior inference. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our method outperforms state-of-the-art baselines across various synthetic and real-world black-box optimization tasks. Our code is publicly available \href{https://github.com/umkiyoung/DiBO}{here}
Keeping up with dynamic attackers: Certifying robustness to adaptive online data poisoning
Bose, Avinandan, Lessard, Laurent, Fazel, Maryam, Dvijotham, Krishnamurthy Dj
The rise of foundation models fine-tuned on human feedback from potentially untrusted users has increased the risk of adversarial data poisoning, necessitating the study of robustness of learning algorithms against such attacks. Existing research on provable certified robustness against data poisoning attacks primarily focuses on certifying robustness for static adversaries who modify a fraction of the dataset used to train the model before the training algorithm is applied. In practice, particularly when learning from human feedback in an online sense, adversaries can observe and react to the learning process and inject poisoned samples that optimize adversarial objectives better than when they are restricted to poisoning a static dataset once, before the learning algorithm is applied. Indeed, it has been shown in prior work that online dynamic adversaries can be significantly more powerful than static ones. We present a novel framework for computing certified bounds on the impact of dynamic poisoning, and use these certificates to design robust learning algorithms. We give an illustration of the framework for the mean estimation and binary classification problems and outline directions for extending this in further work. The code to implement our certificates and replicate our results is available at https://github.com/