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 Statistical Learning


Implicit Contrastive Representation Learning with Guided Stop-gradient

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In self-supervised representation learning, Siamese networks are a natural architecture for learning transformation-invariance by bringing representations of positive pairs closer together. But it is prone to collapse into a degenerate solution. To address the issue, in contrastive learning, a contrastive loss is used to prevent collapse by moving representations of negative pairs away from each other. But it is known that algorithms with negative sampling are not robust to a reduction in the number of negative samples. So, on the other hand, there are algorithms that do not use negative pairs. Many positive-only algorithms adopt asymmetric network architecture consisting of source and target encoders as a key factor in coping with collapse. By exploiting the asymmetric architecture, we introduce a methodology to implicitly incorporate the idea of contrastive learning. As its implementation, we present a novel method guided stop-gradient. We apply our method to benchmark algorithms SimSiam and BYOL and show that our method stabilizes training and boosts performance. We also show that the algorithms with our method work well with small batch sizes and do not collapse even when there is no predictor. The code is available at https://github.com/bych-lee/gsg.


TreeX: Generating Global Graphical GNN Explanations via Critical Subtree Extraction

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The growing demand for transparency and interpretability in critical domains has driven increased interests in comprehending the explainability of Message-Passing (MP) Graph Neural Networks (GNNs). Although substantial research efforts have been made to generate explanations for individual graph instances, identifying global explaining concepts for a GNN still poses great challenges, especially when concepts are desired in a graphical form on the dataset level. While most prior works treat GNNs as black boxes, in this paper, we propose to unbox GNNs by analyzing and extracting critical subtrees incurred by the inner workings of message passing, which correspond to critical subgraphs in the datasets. By aggregating subtrees in an embedding space with an efficient algorithm, which does not require complex subgraph matching or search, we can make intuitive graphical explanations for Message-Passing GNNs on local, class and global levels. We empirically show that our proposed approach not only generates clean subgraph concepts on a dataset level in contrast to existing global explaining methods which generate non-graphical rules (e.g., language or embeddings) as explanations, but it is also capable of providing explanations for individual instances with a comparable or even superior performance as compared to leading local-level GNN explainers.


A primer on optimal transport for causal inference with observational data

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The theory of optimal transportation has developed into a powerful and elegant framework for comparing probability distributions, with wide-ranging applications in all areas of science. The fundamental idea of analyzing probabilities by comparing their underlying state space naturally aligns with the core idea of causal inference, where understanding and quantifying counterfactual states is paramount. Despite this intuitive connection, explicit research at the intersection of optimal transport and causal inference is only beginning to develop. Yet, many foundational models in causal inference have implicitly relied on optimal transport principles for decades, without recognizing the underlying connection. Therefore, the goal of this review is to offer an introduction to the surprisingly deep existing connections between optimal transport and the identification of causal effects with observational data -- where optimal transport is not just a set of potential tools, but actually builds the foundation of model assumptions. As a result, this review is intended to unify the language and notation between different areas of statistics, mathematics, and econometrics, by pointing out these existing connections, and to explore novel problems and directions for future work in both areas derived from this realization.


Near-Polynomially Competitive Active Logistic Regression

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We address the problem of active logistic regression in the realizable setting. It is well known that active learning can require exponentially fewer label queries compared to passive learning, in some cases using $\log \frac{1}{\eps}$ rather than $\poly(1/\eps)$ labels to get error $\eps$ larger than the optimum. We present the first algorithm that is polynomially competitive with the optimal algorithm on every input instance, up to factors polylogarithmic in the error and domain size. In particular, if any algorithm achieves label complexity polylogarithmic in $\eps$, so does ours. Our algorithm is based on efficient sampling and can be extended to learn more general class of functions. We further support our theoretical results with experiments demonstrating performance gains for logistic regression compared to existing active learning algorithms.


Similarity-Distance-Magnitude Universal Verification

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We address the neural network robustness problem by adding Similarity (i.e., correctly predicted depth-matches into training)-awareness and Distance-to-training-distribution-awareness to the existing output Magnitude (i.e., decision-boundary)-awareness of the softmax function. The resulting sdm activation function provides strong signals of the relative epistemic (reducible) predictive uncertainty. We use this novel behavior to further address the complementary HCI problem of mapping the output to human-interpretable summary statistics over relevant partitions of a held-out calibration set. Estimates of prediction-conditional uncertainty are obtained via a parsimonious learned transform over the class-conditional empirical CDFs of the output of a final-layer sdm activation function. For decision-making and as an intrinsic model check, estimates of class-conditional accuracy are obtained by further partitioning the high-probability regions of this calibrated output into class-conditional, region-specific CDFs. The uncertainty estimates from sdm calibration are remarkably robust to test-time distribution shifts and out-of-distribution inputs; incorporate awareness of the effective sample size; provide estimates of uncertainty from the learning and data splitting processes; and are well-suited for selective classification and conditional branching for additional test-time compute based on the predictive uncertainty, as for selective LLM generation, routing, and composition over multiple models and retrieval. Finally, we construct sdm networks, LLMs with uncertainty-aware verification and interpretability-by-exemplar as intrinsic properties. We provide open-source software implementing these results.


MBCT: Tree-Based Feature-Aware Binning for Individual Uncertainty Calibration

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Most machine learning classifiers only concern classification accuracy, while certain applications (such as medical diagnosis, meteorological forecasting, and computation advertising) require the model to predict the true probability, known as a calibrated estimate. In previous work, researchers have developed several calibration methods to post-process the outputs of a predictor to obtain calibrated values, such as binning and scaling methods. Compared with scaling, binning methods are shown to have distribution-free theoretical guarantees, which motivates us to prefer binning methods for calibration. However, we notice that existing binning methods have several drawbacks: (a) the binning scheme only considers the original prediction values, thus limiting the calibration performance; and (b) the binning approach is non-individual, mapping multiple samples in a bin to the same value, and thus is not suitable for order-sensitive applications. In this paper, we propose a feature-aware binning framework, called Multiple Boosting Calibration Trees (MBCT), along with a multi-view calibration loss to tackle the above issues. Our MBCT optimizes the binning scheme by the tree structures of features, and adopts a linear function in a tree node to achieve individual calibration. Our MBCT is non-monotonic, and has the potential to improve order accuracy, due to its learnable binning scheme and the individual calibration. We conduct comprehensive experiments on three datasets in different fields. Results show that our method outperforms all competing models in terms of both calibration error and order accuracy. We also conduct simulation experiments, justifying that the proposed multi-view calibration loss is a better metric in modeling calibration error.


Batch List-Decodable Linear Regression via Higher Moments

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We study the task of list-decodable linear regression using batches. A batch is called clean if it consists of i.i.d. samples from an unknown linear regression distribution. For a parameter $\alpha \in (0, 1/2)$, an unknown $\alpha$-fraction of the batches are clean and no assumptions are made on the remaining ones. The goal is to output a small list of vectors at least one of which is close to the true regressor vector in $\ell_2$-norm. [DJKS23] gave an efficient algorithm, under natural distributional assumptions, with the following guarantee. Assuming that the batch size $n$ satisfies $n \geq \tilde{\Omega}(\alpha^{-1})$ and the number of batches is $m = \mathrm{poly}(d, n, 1/\alpha)$, their algorithm runs in polynomial time and outputs a list of $O(1/\alpha^2)$ vectors at least one of which is $\tilde{O}(\alpha^{-1/2}/\sqrt{n})$ close to the target regressor. Here we design a new polynomial time algorithm with significantly stronger guarantees under the assumption that the low-degree moments of the covariates distribution are Sum-of-Squares (SoS) certifiably bounded. Specifically, for any constant $\delta>0$, as long as the batch size is $n \geq \Omega_{\delta}(\alpha^{-\delta})$ and the degree-$\Theta(1/\delta)$ moments of the covariates are SoS certifiably bounded, our algorithm uses $m = \mathrm{poly}((dn)^{1/\delta}, 1/\alpha)$ batches, runs in polynomial-time, and outputs an $O(1/\alpha)$-sized list of vectors one of which is $O(\alpha^{-\delta/2}/\sqrt{n})$ close to the target. That is, our algorithm achieves substantially smaller minimum batch size and final error, while achieving the optimal list size. Our approach uses higher-order moment information by carefully combining the SoS paradigm interleaved with an iterative method and a novel list pruning procedure. In the process, we give an SoS proof of the Marcinkiewicz-Zygmund inequality that may be of broader applicability.


Cover Learning for Large-Scale Topology Representation

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Classical unsupervised learning methods like clustering and linear dimensionality reduction parametrize large-scale geometry when it is discrete or linear, while more modern methods from manifold learning find low dimensional representation or infer local geometry by constructing a graph on the input data. More recently, topological data analysis popularized the use of simplicial complexes to represent data topology with two main methodologies: topological inference with geometric complexes and large-scale topology visualization with Mapper graphs -- central to these is the nerve construction from topology, which builds a simplicial complex given a cover of a space by subsets. While successful, these have limitations: geometric complexes scale poorly with data size, and Mapper graphs can be hard to tune and only contain low dimensional information. In this paper, we propose to study the problem of learning covers in its own right, and from the perspective of optimization. We describe a method for learning topologically-faithful covers of geometric datasets, and show that the simplicial complexes thus obtained can outperform standard topological inference approaches in terms of size, and Mapper-type algorithms in terms of representation of large-scale topology.


Solving Bayesian inverse problems with diffusion priors and off-policy RL

arXiv.org Machine Learning

This paper presents a practical application of Relative Trajectory Balance (RTB), a recently introduced off-policy reinforcement learning (RL) objective that can asymptotically solve Bayesian inverse problems optimally. We extend the original work by using RTB to train conditional diffusion model posteriors from pretrained unconditional priors for challenging linear and non-linear inverse problems in vision, and science. We use the objective alongside techniques such as off-policy backtracking exploration to improve training. Importantly, our results show that existing training-free diffusion posterior methods struggle to perform effective posterior inference in latent space due to inherent biases.


Bags of Projected Nearest Neighbours: Competitors to Random Forests?

arXiv.org Machine Learning

In this paper we introduce a simple and intuitive adaptive k nearest neighbours classifier, and explore its utility within the context of bootstrap aggregating ("bagging"). The approach is based on finding discriminant subspaces which are computationally efficient to compute, and are motivated by enhancing the discrimination of classes through nearest neighbour classifiers. This adaptiveness promotes diversity of the individual classifiers fit across different bootstrap samples, and so further leverages the variance reducing effect of bagging. Extensive experimental results are presented documenting the strong performance of the proposed approach in comparison with Random Forest classifiers, as well as other nearest neighbours based ensembles from the literature, plus other relevant benchmarks. Code to implement the proposed approach is available in the form of an R package from https://github.com/DavidHofmeyr/BOPNN.