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 Statistical Learning


No Thing, Nothing: Highlighting Safety-Critical Classes for Robust LiDAR Semantic Segmentation in Adverse Weather

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Existing domain generalization methods for LiDAR semantic segmentation under adverse weather struggle to accurately predict "things" categories compared to "stuff" categories. In typical driving scenes, "things" categories can be dynamic and associated with higher collision risks, making them crucial for safe navigation and planning. Recognizing the importance of "things" categories, we identify their performance drop as a serious bottleneck in existing approaches. We observed that adverse weather induces degradation of semantic-level features and both corruption of local features, leading to a misprediction of "things" as "stuff". To mitigate these corruptions, we suggest our method, NTN - segmeNt Things for No-accident. To address semantic-level feature corruption, we bind each point feature to its superclass, preventing the misprediction of things classes into visually dissimilar categories. Additionally, to enhance robustness against local corruption caused by adverse weather, we define each LiDAR beam as a local region and propose a regularization term that aligns the clean data with its corrupted counterpart in feature space. NTN achieves state-of-the-art performance with a +2.6 mIoU gain on the SemanticKITTI-to-SemanticSTF benchmark and +7.9 mIoU on the SemanticPOSS-to-SemanticSTF benchmark. Notably, NTN achieves a +4.8 and +7.9 mIoU improvement on "things" classes, respectively, highlighting its effectiveness.


Nonparametric Bellman Mappings for Value Iteration in Distributed Reinforcement Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper introduces novel Bellman mappings (B-Maps) for value iteration (VI) in distributed reinforcement learning (DRL), where multiple agents operate over a network without a centralized fusion node. Each agent constructs its own nonparametric B-Map for VI while communicating only with direct neighbors to achieve consensus. These B-Maps operate on Q-functions represented in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space, enabling a nonparametric formulation that allows for flexible, agent-specific basis function design. Unlike existing DRL methods that restrict information exchange to Q-function estimates, the proposed framework also enables agents to share basis information in the form of covariance matrices, capturing additional structural details. A theoretical analysis establishes linear convergence rates for both Q-function and covariance-matrix estimates toward their consensus values. The optimal learning rates for consensus-based updates are dictated by the ratio of the smallest positive eigenvalue to the largest one of the network's Laplacian matrix. Furthermore, each nodal Q-function estimate is shown to lie very close to the fixed point of a centralized nonparametric B-Map, effectively allowing the proposed DRL design to approximate the performance of a centralized fusion center. Numerical experiments on two well-known control problems demonstrate the superior performance of the proposed nonparametric B-Maps compared to prior methods. Notably, the results reveal a counter-intuitive finding: although the proposed approach involves greater information exchange -- specifically through the sharing of covariance matrices -- it achieves the desired performance with lower cumulative communication cost than existing DRL schemes, highlighting the crucial role of basis information in accelerating the learning process.


Inteligencia Artificial para la conservaci\'on y uso sostenible de la biodiversidad, una visi\'on desde Colombia (Artificial Intelligence for conservation and sustainable use of biodiversity, a view from Colombia)

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The rise of artificial intelligence (AI) and the aggravating biodiversity crisis have resulted in a research area where AI-based computational methods are being developed to act as allies in conservation, and the sustainable use and management of natural resources. While important general guidelines have been established globally regarding the opportunities and challenges that this interdisciplinary research offers, it is essential to generate local reflections from the specific contexts and realities of each region. Hence, this document aims to analyze the scope of this research area from a perspective focused on Colombia and the Neotropics. In this paper, we summarize the main experiences and debates that took place at the Humboldt Institute between 2023 and 2024 in Colombia. To illustrate the variety of promising opportunities, we present current uses such as automatic species identification from images and recordings, species modeling, and in silico bioprospecting, among others. From the experiences described above, we highlight limitations, challenges, and opportunities for in order to successfully implementate AI in conservation efforts and sustainable management of biological resources in the Neotropics. The result aims to be a guide for researchers, decision makers, and biodiversity managers, facilitating the understanding of how artificial intelligence can be effectively integrated into conservation and sustainable use strategies. Furthermore, it also seeks to open a space for dialogue on the development of policies that promote the responsible and ethical adoption of AI in local contexts, ensuring that its benefits are harnessed without compromising biodiversity or the cultural and ecosystemic values inherent in Colombia and the Neotropics.


The global convergence time of stochastic gradient descent in non-convex landscapes: Sharp estimates via large deviations

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In this paper, we examine the time it takes for stochastic gradient descent (SGD) to reach the global minimum of a general, non-convex loss function. We approach this question through the lens of randomly perturbed dynamical systems and large deviations theory, and we provide a tight characterization of the global convergence time of SGD via matching upper and lower bounds. These bounds are dominated by the most "costly" set of obstacles that the algorithm may need to overcome to reach a global minimizer from a given initialization, coupling in this way the global geometry of the underlying loss landscape with the statistics of the noise entering the process. Finally, motivated by applications to the training of deep neural networks, we also provide a series of refinements and extensions of our analysis for loss functions with shallow local minima.


Optimal Complexity in Byzantine-Robust Distributed Stochastic Optimization with Data Heterogeneity

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In this paper, we establish tight lower bounds for Byzantine-robust distributed first-order stochastic optimization methods in both strongly convex and non-convex stochastic optimization. We reveal that when the distributed nodes have heterogeneous data, the convergence error comprises two components: a non-vanishing Byzantine error and a vanishing optimization error. We establish the lower bounds on the Byzantine error and on the minimum number of queries to a stochastic gradient oracle required to achieve an arbitrarily small optimization error. Nevertheless, we identify significant discrepancies between our established lower bounds and the existing upper bounds. To fill this gap, we leverage the techniques of Nesterov's acceleration and variance reduction to develop novel Byzantine-robust distributed stochastic optimization methods that provably match these lower bounds, up to logarithmic factors, implying that our established lower bounds are tight.


Network Embedding Exploration Tool (NEExT)

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Many real-world and artificial systems and processes can be represented as graphs. Some examples of such systems include social networks, financial transactions, supply chains, and molecular structures. In many of these cases, one needs to consider a collection of graphs, rather than a single network. This could be a collection of distinct but related graphs, such as different protein structures or graphs resulting from dynamic processes on the same network. Examples of the latter include the evolution of social networks, community-induced graphs, or ego-nets around various nodes. A significant challenge commonly encountered is the absence of ground-truth labels for graphs or nodes, necessitating the use of unsupervised techniques to analyze such systems. Moreover, even when ground-truth labels are available, many existing graph machine learning methods depend on complex deep learning models, complicating model explainability and interpretability. To address some of these challenges, we have introduced NEExT (Network Embedding Exploration Tool) for embedding collections of graphs via user-defined node features. The advantages of the framework are twofold: (i) the ability to easily define your own interpretable node-based features in view of the task at hand, and (ii) fast embedding of graphs provided by the Vectorizers library. In this paper, we demonstrate the usefulness of NEExT on collections of synthetic and real-world graphs. For supervised tasks, we demonstrate that performance in graph classification tasks could be achieved similarly to other state-of-the-art techniques while maintaining model interpretability. Furthermore, our framework can also be used to generate high-quality embeddings in an unsupervised way, where target variables are not available.


Sparse Nonparametric Contextual Bandits

arXiv.org Machine Learning

This paper studies the problem of simultaneously learning relevant features and minimising regret in contextual bandit problems. We introduce and analyse a new class of contextual bandit problems, called sparse nonparametric contextual bandits, in which the expected reward function lies in the linear span of a small unknown set of features that belongs to a known infinite set of candidate features. We consider two notions of sparsity, for which the set of candidate features is either countable or uncountable. Our contribution is two-fold. First, we provide lower bounds on the minimax regret, which show that polynomial dependence on the number of actions is generally unavoidable in this setting. Second, we show that a variant of the Feel-Good Thompson Sampling algorithm enjoys regret bounds that match our lower bounds up to logarithmic factors of the horizon, and have logarithmic dependence on the effective number of candidate features. When we apply our results to kernelised and neural contextual bandits, we find that sparsity always enables better regret bounds, as long as the horizon is large enough relative to the sparsity and the number of actions.


Manifold learning in metric spaces

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Laplacian-based methods are popular for dimensionality reduction of data lying in $\mathbb{R}^N$. Several theoretical results for these algorithms depend on the fact that the Euclidean distance approximates the geodesic distance on the underlying submanifold which the data are assumed to lie on. However, for some applications, other metrics, such as the Wasserstein distance, may provide a more appropriate notion of distance than the Euclidean distance. We provide a framework that generalizes the problem of manifold learning to metric spaces and study when a metric satisfies sufficient conditions for the pointwise convergence of the graph Laplacian.


Interpretable Neural Causal Models with TRAM-DAGs

arXiv.org Machine Learning

The ultimate goal of most scientific studies is to understand the underlying causal mechanism between the involved variables. Structural causal models (SCMs) are widely used to represent such causal mechanisms. Given an SCM, causal queries on all three levels of Pearl's causal hierarchy can be answered: $L_1$ observational, $L_2$ interventional, and $L_3$ counterfactual. An essential aspect of modeling the SCM is to model the dependency of each variable on its causal parents. Traditionally this is done by parametric statistical models, such as linear or logistic regression models. This allows to handle all kinds of data types and fit interpretable models but bears the risk of introducing a bias. More recently neural causal models came up using neural networks (NNs) to model the causal relationships, allowing the estimation of nearly any underlying functional form without bias. However, current neural causal models are generally restricted to continuous variables and do not yield an interpretable form of the causal relationships. Transformation models range from simple statistical regressions to complex networks and can handle continuous, ordinal, and binary data. Here, we propose to use TRAMs to model the functional relationships in SCMs allowing us to bridge the gap between interpretability and flexibility in causal modeling. We call this method TRAM-DAG and assume currently that the underlying directed acyclic graph is known. For the fully observed case, we benchmark TRAM-DAGs against state-of-the-art statistical and NN-based causal models. We show that TRAM-DAGs are interpretable but also achieve equal or superior performance in queries ranging from $L_1$ to $L_3$ in the causal hierarchy. For the continuous case, TRAM-DAGs allow for counterfactual queries for three common causal structures, including unobserved confounding.


Ensemble Survival Analysis for Preclinical Cognitive Decline Prediction in Alzheimer's Disease Using Longitudinal Biomarkers

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Predicting the risk of clinical progression from cognitively normal (CN) status to mild cognitive impairment (MCI) or Alzheimer's disease (AD) is critical for early intervention in Alzheimer's disease (AD). Traditional survival models often fail to capture complex longitudinal biomarker patterns associated with disease progression. We propose an ensemble survival analysis framework integrating multiple survival models to improve early prediction of clinical progression in initially cognitively normal individuals. We analyzed longitudinal biomarker data from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) cohort, including 721 participants, limiting analysis to up to three visits (baseline, 6-month follow-up, 12-month follow-up). Of these, 142 (19.7%) experienced clinical progression to MCI or AD. Our approach combined penalized Cox regression (LASSO, Elastic Net) with advanced survival models (Random Survival Forest, DeepSurv, XGBoost). Model predictions were aggregated using ensemble averaging and Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA). Predictive performance was assessed using Harrell's concordance index (C-index) and time-dependent area under the curve (AUC). The ensemble model achieved a peak C-index of 0.907 and an integrated time-dependent AUC of 0.904, outperforming baseline-only models (C-index 0.608). One follow-up visit after baseline significantly improved prediction accuracy (48.1% C-index, 48.2% AUC gains), while adding a second follow-up provided only marginal gains (2.1% C-index, 2.7% AUC). Our ensemble survival framework effectively integrates diverse survival models and aggregation techniques to enhance early prediction of preclinical AD progression. These findings highlight the importance of leveraging longitudinal biomarker data, particularly one follow-up visit, for accurate risk stratification and personalized intervention strategies.