In order to reduce the cost of experimental evaluation for models, we introduce a computational theory of evaluation for prediction and decision models: build evaluation model to accelerate the evaluation procedures. We prove upper bounds of generalized error and generalized causal effect error of given evaluation models. We also prove efficiency, and consistency to estimated causal effect from deployed subject to evaluation metric by prediction. To learn evaluation models, we propose a meta-learner to handle heterogeneous evaluation subjects space problem. Comparing with existed evaluation approaches, our (conditional) evaluation model reduced 24.1\%-99.0\% evaluation errors across 12 scenes, including individual medicine, scientific simulation, social experiment, business activity, and quantum trade. The evaluation time is reduced 3-7 order of magnitude comparing with experiments or simulations.

Environmental crisis remains a global challenge that affects public health and environmental quality. Despite extensive research, accurately forecasting environmental change trends to inform targeted policies and assess prediction efficiency remains elusive. Conventional methods for multivariate time series (MTS) analysis often fail to capture the complex dynamics of environmental change. To address this, we introduce an innovative meta-learning MTS model, MMformer with Adaptive Transferable Multi-head Attention (ATMA), which combines self-attention and meta-learning for enhanced MTS forecasting. Specifically, MMformer is used to model and predict the time series of seven air quality indicators across 331 cities in China from January 2018 to June 2021 and the time series of precipitation and temperature at 2415 monitoring sites during the summer (276 days) from 2012 to 2014, validating the network's ability to perform and forecast MTS data successfully. Experimental results demonstrate that in these datasets, the MMformer model reaching SOTA outperforms iTransformer, Transformer, and the widely used traditional time series prediction algorithm SARIMAX in the prediction of MTS, reducing by 50\% in MSE, 20\% in MAE as compared to others in air quality datasets, reducing by 20\% in MAPE except SARIMAX. Compared with Transformer and SARIMAX in the climate datasets, MSE, MAE, and MAPE are decreased by 30\%, and there is an improvement compared to iTransformer. This approach represents a significant advance in our ability to forecast and respond to dynamic environmental quality challenges in diverse urban and rural environments. Its predictive capabilities provide valuable public health and environmental quality information, informing targeted interventions.

We analyse the convergence of sampling algorithms for functions in reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces (RKHS). To this end, we discuss approximation properties of kernel regression under minimalistic assumptions on both the kernel and the input data. We first prove error estimates in the kernel's RKHS norm. This leads us to new results concerning uniform convergence of kernel regression on compact domains. For Lipschitz continuous and H\"older continuous kernels, we prove convergence rates.

We introduce a novel, geometry-aware distance metric for the family of von Mises-Fisher (vMF) distributions, which are fundamental models for directional data on the unit hypersphere. Although the vMF distribution is widely employed in a variety of probabilistic learning tasks involving spherical data, principled tools for comparing vMF distributions remain limited, primarily due to the intractability of normalization constants and the absence of suitable geometric metrics. Motivated by the theory of optimal transport, we propose a Wasserstein-like distance that decomposes the discrepancy between two vMF distributions into two interpretable components: a geodesic term capturing the angular separation between mean directions, and a variance-like term quantifying differences in concentration parameters. The derivation leverages a Gaussian approximation in the high-concentration regime to yield a tractable, closed-form expression that respects the intrinsic spherical geometry. We show that the proposed distance exhibits desirable theoretical properties and induces a latent geometric structure on the space of non-degenerate vMF distributions. As a primary application, we develop the efficient algorithms for vMF mixture reduction, enabling structure-preserving compression of mixture models in high-dimensional settings. Empirical results on synthetic datasets and real-world high-dimensional embeddings, including biomedical sentence representations and deep visual features, demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed geometry in distinguishing distributions and supporting interpretable inference. This work expands the statistical toolbox for directional data analysis by introducing a tractable, transport-inspired distance tailored to the geometry of the hypersphere.

Heterogeneous treatment effect estimation in high-stakes applications demands models that simultaneously optimize precision, interpretability, and calibration. Many existing tree-based causal inference techniques, however, exhibit high estimation errors when applied to observational data because they struggle to capture complex interactions among factors and rely on static regularization schemes. In this work, we propose Dynamic Regularized Causal Boosted Decision Trees (CBDT), a novel framework that integrates variance regularization and average treatment effect calibration into the loss function of gradient boosted decision trees. Our approach dynamically updates the regularization parameters using gradient statistics to better balance the bias-variance tradeoff. Extensive experiments on standard benchmark datasets and real-world clinical data demonstrate that the proposed method significantly improves estimation accuracy while maintaining reliable coverage of true treatment effects. In an intensive care unit patient triage study, the method successfully identified clinically actionable rules and achieved high accuracy in treatment effect estimation. The results validate that dynamic regularization can effectively tighten error bounds and enhance both predictive performance and model interpretability.

Proper regulation of gene expression is essential to ensure that genes are activated only when necessary and that their activity is properly controlled [3]. The regulation of gene expression is achieved through understanding the intricate interactions between genes and other molecules. In this effort, Gene Regulatory Networks have emerged as a strong tool[2]. Gene regulatory networks (GRNs) are complex systems that determine the development, differentiation, and function of cells and organisms, as well as their response to environmental stimuli [4][5]. GRNs consist of genes, transcription factors (TFs), microRNAs, and other regulatory molecules that interact with each other to control gene expression [6]. The regulatory interactions between these molecules can form complex networks that exhibit emergent properties, such as robustness and adaptability [7]. In its simplest form, a GRN is a network of genes and their regulatory interactions, which govern the expression of these genes in response to various cellular cues. It is worth noting that in this definition, a transcription factor (TF) is considered a special kind of gene that may regulate the expression of other non-TF or TF genes. Each gene in the network acts as a node, and the regulatory interactions between genes are represented by directed edges connecting these nodes[8].

Bovine Viral Diarrhoea (BVD) has been the focus of a successful eradication programme in Ireland, with the herd-level prevalence declining from 11.3% in 2013 to just 0.2% in 2023. As the country moves toward BVD freedom, the development of predictive models for targeted surveillance becomes increasingly important to mitigate the risk of disease re-emergence. In this study, we evaluate the performance of a range of machine learning algorithms, including binary classification and anomaly detection techniques, for predicting BVD-positive herds using highly imbalanced herd-level data. We conduct an extensive simulation study to assess model performance across varying sample sizes and class imbalance ratios, incorporating resampling, class weighting, and appropriate evaluation metrics (sensitivity, positive predictive value, F1-score and AUC values). Random forests and XGBoost models consistently outperformed other methods, with the random forest model achieving the highest sensitivity and AUC across scenarios, including real-world prediction of 2023 herd status, correctly identifying 219 of 250 positive herds while halving the number of herds that require compared to a blanket-testing strategy.

Cross-modal retrieval (CMR) is a fundamental task in multimedia research, focused on retrieving semantically relevant targets across different modalities. While traditional CMR methods match text and image via embedding-based similarity calculations, recent advancements in pre-trained generative models have established generative retrieval as a promising alternative. This paradigm assigns each target a unique identifier and leverages a generative model to directly predict identifiers corresponding to input queries without explicit indexing. Despite its great potential, current generative CMR approaches still face semantic information insufficiency in both identifier construction and generation processes. To address these limitations, we propose a novel unified Semantic-enhanced generative Cross-mOdal REtrieval framework (SemCORE), designed to unleash the semantic understanding capabilities in generative cross-modal retrieval task. Specifically, we first construct a Structured natural language IDentifier (SID) that effectively aligns target identifiers with generative models optimized for natural language comprehension and generation. Furthermore, we introduce a Generative Semantic Verification (GSV) strategy enabling fine-grained target discrimination. Additionally, to the best of our knowledge, SemCORE is the first framework to simultaneously consider both text-to-image and image-to-text retrieval tasks within generative cross-modal retrieval. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our framework outperforms state-of-the-art generative cross-modal retrieval methods. Notably, SemCORE achieves substantial improvements across benchmark datasets, with an average increase of 8.65 points in Recall@1 for text-to-image retrieval.

Cold temperatures can cause significant frost damage to fruit crops depending on their resilience, or cold hardiness, which changes throughout the dormancy season. This has led to the development of predictive cold-hardiness models, which help farmers decide when to deploy expensive frost-mitigation measures. Unfortunately, cold-hardiness data for model training is only available for some fruit cultivars due to the need for specialized equipment and expertise. Rather, farmers often do have years of phenological data (e.g. date of budbreak) that they regularly collect for their crops. In this work, we introduce a new transfer-learning framework, Transfer via Auxiliary Labels (TAL), that allows farmers to leverage the phenological data to produce more accurate cold-hardiness predictions, even when no cold-hardiness data is available for their specific crop. The framework assumes a set of source tasks (cultivars) where each has associated primary labels (cold hardiness) and auxiliary labels (phenology). However, the target task (new cultivar) is assumed to only have the auxiliary labels. The goal of TAL is to predict primary labels for the target task via transfer from the source tasks. Surprisingly, despite the vast literature on transfer learning, to our knowledge, the TAL formulation has not been previously addressed. Thus, we propose several new TAL approaches based on model selection and averaging that can leverage recent deep multi-task models for cold-hardiness prediction. Our results on real-world cold-hardiness and phenological data for multiple grape cultivars demonstrate that TAL can leverage the phenological data to improve cold-hardiness predictions in the absence of cold-hardiness data.

We propose a new unsupervised anomaly detection method based on the sliced-Wasserstein distance for training data selection in machine learning approaches. Our filtering technique is interesting for decision-making pipelines deploying machine learning models in critical sectors, e.g., power systems, as it offers a conservative data selection and an optimal transport interpretation. To ensure the scalability of our method, we provide two efficient approximations. The first approximation processes reduced-cardinality representations of the datasets concurrently. The second makes use of a computationally light Euclidian distance approximation. Additionally, we open the first dataset showcasing localized critical peak rebate demand response in a northern climate. We present the filtering patterns of our method on synthetic datasets and numerically benchmark our method for training data selection. Finally, we employ our method as part of a first forecasting benchmark for our open-source dataset.