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 Statistical Learning


Assessing Surrogate Heterogeneity in Real World Data Using Meta-Learners

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Surrogate markers are most commonly studied within the context of randomized clinical trials. However, the need for alternative outcomes extends beyond these settings and may be more pronounced in real-world public health and social science research, where randomized trials are often impractical. Research on identifying surrogates in real-world non-randomized data is scarce, as available statistical approaches for evaluating surrogate markers tend to rely on the assumption that treatment is randomized. While the few methods that allow for non-randomized treatment/exposure appropriately handle confounding individual characteristics, they do not offer a way to examine surrogate heterogeneity with respect to patient characteristics. In this paper, we propose a framework to assess surrogate heterogeneity in real-world, i.e., non-randomized, data and implement this framework using various meta-learners. Our approach allows us to quantify heterogeneity in surrogate strength with respect to patient characteristics while accommodating confounders through the use of flexible, off-the-shelf machine learning methods. In addition, we use our framework to identify individuals for whom the surrogate is a valid replacement of the primary outcome. We examine the performance of our methods via a simulation study and application to examine heterogeneity in the surrogacy of hemoglobin A1c as a surrogate for fasting plasma glucose.


Human-aligned Deep Learning: Explainability, Causality, and Biological Inspiration

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This work aligns deep learning (DL) with human reasoning capabilities and needs to enable more efficient, interpretable, and robust image classification. We approach this from three perspectives: explainability, causality, and biological vision. Introduction and background open this work before diving into operative chapters. First, we assess neural networks' visualization techniques for medical images and validate an explainable-by-design method for breast mass classification. A comprehensive review at the intersection of XAI and causality follows, where we introduce a general scaffold to organize past and future research, laying the groundwork for our second perspective. In the causality direction, we propose novel modules that exploit feature co-occurrence in medical images, leading to more effective and explainable predictions. We further introduce CROCODILE, a general framework that integrates causal concepts, contrastive learning, feature disentanglement, and prior knowledge to enhance generalization. Lastly, we explore biological vision, examining how humans recognize objects, and propose CoCoReco, a connectivity-inspired network with context-aware attention mechanisms. Overall, our key findings include: (i) simple activation maximization lacks insight for medical imaging DL models; (ii) prototypical-part learning is effective and radiologically aligned; (iii) XAI and causal ML are deeply connected; (iv) weak causal signals can be leveraged without a priori information to improve performance and interpretability; (v) our framework generalizes across medical domains and out-of-distribution data; (vi) incorporating biological circuit motifs improves human-aligned recognition. This work contributes toward human-aligned DL and highlights pathways to bridge the gap between research and clinical adoption, with implications for improved trust, diagnostic accuracy, and safe deployment.


Predictors of Childhood Vaccination Uptake in England: An Explainable Machine Learning Analysis of Longitudinal Regional Data (2021-2024)

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Childhood vaccination is a cornerstone of public health, yet disparities in vaccination coverage persist across England. These disparities are shaped by complex interactions among various factors, including geographic, demographic, socioeconomic, and cultural (GDSC) factors. Previous studies mostly rely on cross-sectional data and traditional statistical approaches that assess individual or limited sets of variables in isolation. Such methods may fall short in capturing the dynamic and multivariate nature of vaccine uptake. In this paper, we conducted a longitudinal machine learning analysis of childhood vaccination coverage across 150 districts in England from 2021 to 2024. Using vaccination data from NHS records, we applied hierarchical clustering to group districts by vaccination coverage into low- and high-coverage clusters. A CatBoost classifier was then trained to predict districts' vaccination clusters using their GDSC data. Finally, the SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) method was used to interpret the predictors' importance. The classifier achieved high accuracies of 92.1, 90.6, and 86.3 in predicting districts' vaccination clusters for the years 2021-2022, 2022-2023, and 2023-2024, respectively. SHAP revealed that geographic, cultural, and demographic variables, particularly rurality, English language proficiency, the percentage of foreign-born residents, and ethnic composition, were the most influential predictors of vaccination coverage, whereas socioeconomic variables, such as deprivation and employment, consistently showed lower importance, especially in 2023-2024. Surprisingly, rural districts were significantly more likely to have higher vaccination rates. Additionally, districts with lower vaccination coverage had higher populations whose first language was not English, who were born outside the UK, or who were from ethnic minority groups.


Word Embedding Techniques for Classification of Star Ratings

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Telecom services are at the core of today's societies' everyday needs. The availability of numerous online forums and discussion platforms enables telecom providers to improve their services by exploring the views of their customers to learn about common issues that the customers face. Natural Language Processing (NLP) tools can be used to process the free text collected. One way of working with such data is to represent text as numerical vectors using one of many word embedding models based on neural networks. This research uses a novel dataset of telecom customers' reviews to perform an extensive study showing how different word embedding algorithms can affect the text classification process. Several state-of-the-art word embedding techniques are considered, including BERT, Word2Vec and Doc2Vec, coupled with several classification algorithms. The important issue of feature engineering and dimensionality reduction is addressed and several PCA-based approaches are explored. Moreover, the energy consumption used by the different word embeddings is investigated. The findings show that some word embedding models can lead to consistently better text classifiers in terms of precision, recall and F1-Score. In particular, for the more challenging classification tasks, BERT combined with PCA stood out with the highest performance metrics. Moreover, our proposed PCA approach of combining word vectors using the first principal component shows clear advantages in performance over the traditional approach of taking the average.


Bitcoin's Edge: Embedded Sentiment in Blockchain Transactional Data

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

--Cryptocurrency blockchains, beyond their primary role as distributed payment systems, are increasingly used to store and share arbitrary content, such as text messages and files. Although often non-financial, this hidden content can impact price movements by conveying private information, shaping sentiment, and influencing public opinion. However, current analyses of such data are limited in scope and scalability, primarily relying on manual classification or hand-crafted heuristics. In this work, we address these limitations by employing Natural Language Processing techniques to analyze, detect patterns, and extract public sentiment encoded within blockchain transactional data. Our findings shed light on a previously underexplored source of freely available, transparent, and immutable data and introduce blockchain sentiment analysis as a novel and robust framework for enhancing financial predictions in cryptocurrency markets. Incidentally, we discover an asymmetry between cryptocurrencies; Bitcoin has an informational advantage over Ethereum in that the sentiment embedded into transactional data is sufficient to predict its price movement. First introduced by the Bitcoin software [1], cryptocurrency blockchains are electronic payment systems that eliminate the need for centralized authorities, such as banks, to validate transactions. Due to their core principles -decentralization, the removal of intermediaries, transparency, and transaction security among others-blockchains have experienced exponential growth in popularity over the past two decades. However, beyond being simple financial transaction records, blockchains have evolved, due to their key feature of immutability, to serve as repositories for arbitrary content, including text messages, images, and, in some cases, controversial material [2], [3].


HAECcity: Open-Vocabulary Scene Understanding of City-Scale Point Clouds with Superpoint Graph Clustering

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Traditional 3D scene understanding techniques are generally predicated on hand-annotated label sets, but in recent years a new class of open-vocabulary 3D scene understanding techniques has emerged. Despite the success of this paradigm on small scenes, existing approaches cannot scale efficiently to city-scale 3D datasets. In this paper, we present Hierarchical vocab-Agnostic Expert Clustering (HAEC), after the latin word for 'these', a superpoint graph clustering based approach which utilizes a novel mixture of experts graph transformer for its backbone. We administer this highly scalable approach to the first application of open-vocabulary scene understanding on the SensatUrban city-scale dataset. We also demonstrate a synthetic labeling pipeline which is derived entirely from the raw point clouds with no hand-annotation. Our technique can help unlock complex operations on dense urban 3D scenes and open a new path forward in the processing of digital twins.


MetaDSE: A Few-shot Meta-learning Framework for Cross-workload CPU Design Space Exploration

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

--Cross-workload design space exploration (DSE) is crucial in CPU architecture design. Existing DSE methods typically employ the transfer learning technique to leverage knowledge from source workloads, aiming to minimize the requirement of target workload simulation. T o address these challenges, we reframe the cross-workload CPU DSE task as a few-shot meta-learning problem and further introduce MetaDSE. Additionally, MetaDSE introduces a novel knowledge transfer method called the workload-adaptive architectural mask algorithm, which uncovers the inherent properties of the architecture. Experiments on SPEC CPU 2017 demonstrate that MetaDSE significantly reduces prediction error by 44.3% compared to the state-of-the-art. MetaDSE is open-sourced and available at this anonymous GitHub. Design Space Exploration (DSE) is pivotal in modern CPU architecture design, enabling the optimization of configurations to balance multiple objectives like performance, power, and area (PP A) [1], [2]. The increasing complexity of CPU architectures has led to an exponential expansion of the design space, presenting significant challenges in efficiently identifying optimal configurations.


Irregular Sampling of High-Dimensional Functions in Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Spaces

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We develop sampling formulas for high-dimensional functions in reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces, where we rely on irregular samples that are taken at determining sequences of data points. We place particular emphasis on sampling formulas for tensor product kernels, where we show that determining irregular samples in lower dimensions can be composed to obtain a tensor of determining irregular samples in higher dimensions. This in turn reduces the computational complexity of sampling formulas for high-dimensional functions quite significantly.


Latent Tensor Factorization with Nonlinear PID Control for Missing Data Recovery in Non-Intrusive Load Monitoring

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Non-Intrusive Load Monitoring (NILM) has emerged as a key smart grid technology, identifying electrical device and providing detailed energy consumption data for precise demand response management. Nevertheless, NILM data suffers from missing values due to inescapable factors like sensor failure, leading to inaccuracies in non-intrusive load monitoring. A stochastic gradient descent (SGD)-based latent factorization of tensors model has proven to be effective in estimating missing data, however, it updates a latent factor solely based on the current stochastic gradient, without considering past information, which leads to slow convergence of anLFT model. To address this issue, this paper proposes a Nonlinear Proportional-integral-derivative (PID)-Incorporated Latent factorization of tensors (NPIL) model with two-fold ideas: a) rebuilding the instant learning error according to the principle of a nonlinear PID controller, thus, the past update information is efficiently incorporated into the learning scheme, and b) implementing gain parameter adaptation by utilizing particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm, hence, the model computational efficiency is effectively improved. Experimental results on real-world NILM datasets demonstrate that the proposed NPIL model surpasses state-of-the-art models in convergence rate and accuracy when predicting the missing NILM data.


Integrating Locality-Aware Attention with Transformers for General Geometry PDEs

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Neural operators have emerged as promising frameworks for learning mappings governed by partial differential equations (PDEs), serving as data-driven alternatives to traditional numerical methods. While methods such as the Fourier neural operator (FNO) have demonstrated notable performance, their reliance on uniform grids restricts their applicability to complex geometries and irregular meshes. Recently, Transformer-based neural operators with linear attention mechanisms have shown potential in overcoming these limitations for large-scale PDE simulations. However, these approaches predominantly emphasize global feature aggregation, often overlooking fine-scale dynamics and localized PDE behaviors essential for accurate solutions. To address these challenges, we propose the Locality-Aware Attention Transformer (LA2Former), which leverages K-nearest neighbors for dynamic patchifying and integrates global-local attention for enhanced PDE modeling. By combining linear attention for efficient global context encoding with pairwise attention for capturing intricate local interactions, LA2Former achieves an optimal balance between computational efficiency and predictive accuracy. Extensive evaluations across six benchmark datasets demonstrate that LA2Former improves predictive accuracy by over 50% relative to existing linear attention methods, while also outperforming full pairwise attention under optimal conditions. This work underscores the critical importance of localized feature learning in advancing Transformer-based neural operators for solving PDEs on complex and irregular domains.