Time-series analysis is often affected by missing data, a common problem across several fields, including healthcare and environmental monitoring. Multiple Imputation by Chained Equations (MICE) has been prominent for imputing missing values through "fully conditional specification". We extend MICE using the Bayesian framework (tBayes-MICE), utilising Bayesian inference to impute missing values via Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling to account for uncertainty in MICE model parameters and imputed values. We also include temporally informed initialisation and time-lagged features in the model to respect the sequential nature of time-series data. We evaluate the tBayes-MICE method using two real-world datasets (AirQuality and PhysioNet), and using both the Random Walk Metropolis (RWM) and the Metropolis-Adjusted Langevin Algorithm (MALA) samplers. Our results demonstrate that tBayes-MICE reduces imputation errors relative to the baseline methods over all variables and accounts for uncertainty in the imputation process, thereby providing a more accurate measure of imputation error. We also found that MALA mixed better than RWM across most variables, achieving comparable accuracy while providing more consistent posterior exploration. Overall, these findings suggest that the tBayes-MICE framework represents a practical and efficient approach to time-series imputation, balancing increased accuracy with meaningful quantification of uncertainty in various environmental and clinical settings.

While both classical and neural network classifiers can achieve high accuracy, they fall short on offering uncertainty bounds on their predictions, making them unfit for safety-critical applications. Existing kernel-based classifiers that provide such bounds scale with $\mathcal O (n^{\sim3})$ in time, making them computationally intractable for large datasets. To address this, we propose a novel, computationally efficient classification algorithm based on the Nadaraya-Watson estimator, for whose estimates we derive frequentist uncertainty intervals. We evaluate our classifier on synthetically generated data and on electrocardiographic heartbeat signals from the MIT-BIH Arrhythmia database. We show that the method achieves competitive accuracy $>$\SI{96}{\percent} at $\mathcal O(n)$ and $\mathcal O(\log n)$ operations, while providing actionable uncertainty bounds. These bounds can, e.g., aid in flagging low-confidence predictions, making them suitable for real-time settings with resource constraints, such as diagnostic monitoring or implantable devices.

We develop a geometric framework that links objective accuracy to structural recovery in prototype-based clustering. The analysis is algorithm-agnostic and applies to a broad class of admissible loss functions. We define a clustering condition number that compares within-cluster scale to the minimum loss increase required to move a point across a cluster boundary. When this quantity is small, any solution with a small suboptimality gap must also have a small misclassification error relative to a benchmark partition. The framework also clarifies a fundamental trade-off between robustness and sensitivity to cluster imbalance, leading to sharp phase transitions for exact recovery under different objectives. The guarantees are deterministic and non-asymptotic, and they separate the role of algorithmic accuracy from the intrinsic geometric difficulty of the instance. We further show that errors concentrate near cluster boundaries and that sufficiently deep cluster cores are recovered exactly under strengthened local margins. Together, these results provide a geometric principle for interpreting low objective values as reliable evidence of meaningful clustering structure.

Supervised machine learning assumes that labeled data provide accurate measurements of the concepts models are meant to learn. Yet in practice, human labeling introduces systematic variation arising from ambiguous items, divergent interpretations, and simple mistakes. Machine learning research commonly treats all disagreement as noise, which obscures these distinctions and limits our understanding of what models actually learn. This paper reframes annotation as a measurement process and introduces a statistical framework for decomposing labeling outcomes into interpretable sources of variation: instance difficulty, annotator bias, situational noise, and relational alignment. The framework extends classical measurement-error models to accommodate both shared and individualized notions of truth, reflecting traditional and human label variation interpretations of error, and provides a diagnostic for assessing which regime better characterizes a given task. Applying the proposed model to a multi-annotator natural language inference dataset, we find empirical evidence for all four theorized components and demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach. We conclude with implications for data-centric machine learning and outline how this approach can guide the development of a more systematic science of labeling.

In the last decades, energy-based models (EBMs) have become an important class of probabilistic models in which a component of the likelihood is intractable and therefore cannot be evaluated explicitly. Consequently, parameter estimation in EBMs is challenging for conventional inference methods. In this work, we provide a unified framework that connects noise contrastive estimation (NCE), reverse logistic regression (RLR), multiple importance sampling (MIS), and bridge sampling within the context of EBMs. We further show that these methods are equivalent under specific conditions. This unified perspective clarifies relationships among existing methods and enables the development of new estimators, with the potential to improve statistical and computational efficiency. Furthermore, this study helps elucidate the success of NCE in terms of its flexibility and robustness, while also identifying scenarios in which its performance can be further improved. Hence, rather than being a purely descriptive review, this work offers a unifying perspective and additional methodological contributions. The MATLAB code used in the numerical experiments is also made freely available to support the reproducibility of the results.

Existing support vector machines(SVM) models are sensitive to noise and lack sparsity, which limits their performance. To address these issues, we combine the elastic net loss with a robust loss framework to construct a sparse $\varepsilon$-insensitive bounded asymmetric elastic net loss, and integrate it with SVM to build $\varepsilon$ Insensitive Zone Bounded Asymmetric Elastic Net Loss-based SVM($\varepsilon$-BAEN-SVM). $\varepsilon$-BAEN-SVM is both sparse and robust. Sparsity is proven by showing that samples inside the $\varepsilon$-insensitive band are not support vectors. Robustness is theoretically guaranteed because the influence function is bounded. To solve the non-convex optimization problem, we design a half-quadratic algorithm based on clipping dual coordinate descent. It transforms the problem into a series of weighted subproblems, improving computational efficiency via the $\varepsilon$ parameter. Experiments on simulated and real datasets show that $\varepsilon$-BAEN-SVM outperforms traditional and existing robust SVMs. It balances sparsity and robustness well in noisy environments. Statistical tests confirm its superiority. Under the Gaussian kernel, it achieves better accuracy and noise insensitivity, validating its effectiveness and practical value.

We derive generalization error bounds for the training of two-layer neural networks without assuming boundedness of the loss function, using Wasserstein distance estimates on the discrepancy between a probability distribution and its associated empirical measure, together with moment bounds for the associated stochastic gradient method. In the case of independent test data, we obtain a dimension-free rate of order $O(n^{-1/2} )$ on the $n$-sample generalization error, whereas without independence assumption, we derive a bound of order $O(n^{-1 / ( d_{\rm in}+d_{\rm out} )} )$, where $d_{\rm in}$, $d_{\rm out}$ denote input and output dimensions. Our bounds and their coefficients can be explicitly computed prior to the training of the model, and are confirmed by numerical simulations.

Autoencoders are widely used for dimensionality reduction, based on the assumption that high-dimensional data lies on low-dimensional manifolds. Regularized autoencoders aim to preserve manifold geometry during dimensionality reduction, but existing approaches often suffer from non-injective mappings and overly rigid constraints that limit their effectiveness and robustness. In this work, we identify encoder non-injectivity as a core bottleneck that leads to poor convergence and distorted latent representations. To ensure robustness across data distributions, we formalize the concept of admissible regularization and provide sufficient conditions for its satisfaction. In this work, we propose the Bi-Lipschitz Autoencoder (BLAE), which introduces two key innovations: (1) an injective regularization scheme based on a separation criterion to eliminate pathological local minima, and (2) a bi-Lipschitz relaxation that preserves geometry and exhibits robustness to data distribution drift. Empirical results on diverse datasets show that BLAE consistently outperforms existing methods in preserving manifold structure while remaining resilient to sampling sparsity and distribution shifts. Code is available at https://github.com/qipengz/BLAE.

Tabular foundation models (TFMs) such as TabPFN (Tabular Prior-Data Fitted Network) are designed to generalize across heterogeneous tabular datasets through in-context learning (ICL). They perform prediction in a single forward pass conditioned on labeled examples without dataset-specific parameter updates. This paradigm is particularly attractive in industrial domains (e.g., finance and healthcare) where tabular prediction is pervasive. Retraining a bespoke model for each new table can be costly or infeasible in these settings, while data quality issues such as irrelevant predictors, correlated feature groups, and label noise are common. In this paper, we provide strong empirical evidence that TabPFN is highly robust under these sub-optimal conditions. We study TabPFN and its attention mechanisms for binary classification problems with controlled synthetic perturbations that vary: (i) dataset width by injecting random uncorrelated features and by introducing nonlinearly correlated features, (ii) dataset size by increasing the number of training rows, and (iii) label quality by increasing the fraction of mislabeled targets. Beyond predictive performance, we analyze internal signals including attention concentration and attention-based feature ranking metrics. Across these parametric tests, TabPFN is remarkably resilient: ROC-AUC remains high, attention stays structured and sharp, and informative features are highly ranked by attention-based metrics. Qualitative visualizations with attention heatmaps, feature-token embeddings, and SHAP plots further support a consistent pattern across layers in which TabPFN increasingly concentrates on useful features while separating their signals from noise. Together, these findings suggest that TabPFN is a robust TFM capable of maintaining both predictive performance and coherent internal behavior under various scenarios of data imperfections.

We study stochastic convex optimization (SCO) with heavy-tailed gradients under pure epsilon-differential privacy (DP). Instead of assuming a bound on the worst-case Lipschitz parameter of the loss, we assume only a bounded k-th moment. This assumption allows for unbounded, heavy-tailed stochastic gradient distributions, and can yield sharper excess risk bounds. The minimax optimal rate for approximate (epsilon, delta)-DP SCO is known in this setting, but the pure epsilon-DP case has remained open. We characterize the minimax optimal excess-risk rate for pure epsilon-DP heavy-tailed SCO up to logarithmic factors. Our algorithm achieves this rate in polynomial time with high probability. Moreover, it runs in polynomial time with probability 1 when the worst-case Lipschitz parameter is polynomially bounded. For important structured problem classes - including hinge/ReLU-type and absolute-value losses on Euclidean balls, ellipsoids, and polytopes - we achieve the same excess-risk guarantee in polynomial time with probability 1 even when the worst-case Lipschitz parameter is infinite. Our approach is based on a novel framework for privately optimizing Lipschitz extensions of the empirical loss. We complement our excess risk upper bound with a novel high probability lower bound.