Statistical Learning
Predictive Digital Twins for Thermal Management Using Machine Learning and Reduced-Order Models
Subramani, Tamilselvan, Bartscher, Sebastian
Digital twins enable real-time simulation and prediction in engineering systems. This paper presents a novel framework for predictive digital twins of a headlamp heatsink, integrating physics-based reduced-order models (ROMs) from computational fluid dynamics (CFD) with supervised machine learning. A component-based ROM library, derived via proper orthogonal decomposition (POD), captures thermal dynamics efficiently. Machine learning models, including Decision Trees, k-Nearest Neighbors, Support Vector Regression (SVR), and Neural Networks, predict optimal ROM configurations, enabling rapid digital twin updates. The Neural Network achieves a mean absolute error (MAE) of 54.240, outperforming other models. Quantitative comparisons of predicted and original values demonstrate high accuracy. This scalable, interpretable framework advances thermal management in automotive systems, supporting robust design and predictive maintenance.
Activity and Subject Detection for UCI HAR Dataset with & without missing Sensor Data
Saha, Debashish, Malik, Piyush, Saha, Adrika
Current studies in Human Activity Recognition (HAR) primarily focus on the classification of activities through sensor data, while there is not much emphasis placed on recognizing the individuals performing these activities. This type of classification is very important for developing personalized and context-sensitive applications. Additionally, the issue of missing sensor data, which often occurs in practical situations due to hardware malfunctions, has not been explored yet. This paper seeks to fill these voids by introducing a lightweight LSTM-based model that can be used to classify both activities and subjects. The proposed model was used to classify the HAR dataset by UCI [1], achieving an accuracy of 93.89% in activity recognition (across six activities), nearing the 96.67% benchmark, and an accuracy of 80.19% in subject recognition (involving 30 subjects), thereby establishing a new baseline for this area of research. We then simulate the absence of sensor data to mirror real-world scenarios and incorporate imputation techniques, both with and without Principal Component Analysis (PCA), to restore incomplete datasets. We found that K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN) imputation performs the best for filling the missing sensor data without PCA because the use of PCA resulted in slightly lower accuracy. These results demonstrate how well the framework handles missing sensor data, which is a major step forward in using the Human Activity Recognition dataset for reliable classification tasks.
A Novel Framework for Significant Wave Height Prediction based on Adaptive Feature Extraction Time-Frequency Network
Zhang, Jianxin, Jiang, Lianzi, Han, Xinyu, Wang, Xiangrong
Precise forecasting of significant wave height (Hs) is essential for the development and utilization of wave energy. The challenges in predicting Hs arise from its non-linear and non-stationary characteristics. The combination of decomposition preprocessing and machine learning models have demonstrated significant effectiveness in Hs prediction by extracting data features. However, decomposing the unknown data in the test set can lead to data leakage issues. To simultaneously achieve data feature extraction and prevent data leakage, a novel Adaptive Feature Extraction Time-Frequency Network (AFE-TFNet) is proposed to improve prediction accuracy and stability. It is encoder-decoder rolling framework. The encoder consists of two stages: feature extraction and feature fusion. In the feature extraction stage, global and local frequency domain features are extracted by combining Wavelet Transform (WT) and Fourier Transform (FT), and multi-scale frequency analysis is performed using Inception blocks. In the feature fusion stage, time-domain and frequency-domain features are integrated through dominant harmonic sequence energy weighting (DHSEW). The decoder employed an advanced long short-term memory (LSTM) model. Hourly measured wind speed (Ws), dominant wave period (DPD), average wave period (APD) and Hs from three stations are used as the dataset, and the four metrics are employed to evaluate the forecasting performance. Results show that AFE-TFNet significantly outperforms benchmark methods in terms of prediction accuracy. Feature extraction can significantly improve the prediction accuracy. DHSEW has substantially increased the accuracy of medium-term to long-term forecasting. The prediction accuracy of AFE-TFNet does not demonstrate significant variability with changes of rolling time window size. Overall, AFE-TFNet shows strong potential for handling complex signal forecasting.
A Survey on Data-Driven Modeling of Human Drivers' Lane-Changing Decisions
Huang, Linxuan, Xie, Dong-Fan, Li, Li, He, Zhengbing
--Lane-changing (LC) behavior, a critical yet complex driving maneuver, significantly influences driving safety and traffic dynamics. Traditional analytical LC decision (LCD) models, while effective in specific environments, often oversimplify behavioral heterogeneity and complex interactions, limiting their capacity to capture real LCD. Data-driven approaches address these gaps by leveraging rich empirical data and machine learning to decode latent decision-making patterns, enabling adaptive LCD modeling in dynamic environments. In light of the rapid development of artificial intelligence and the demand for data-driven models oriented towards connected vehicles and autonomous vehicles, this paper presents a comprehensive survey of data-driven LCD models, with a particular focus on human drivers' LC decision-making. It systematically reviews the modeling framework, covering data sources and preprocessing, model inputs and outputs, objectives, structures, and validation methods. This survey further discusses the opportunities and challenges faced by data-driven LCD models, including driving safety, uncertainty, as well as the integration and improvement of technical frameworks. Compared to car-following (CF) behavior, LC behavior entails higher collision risks due to its dependency on holistic evaluations of traffic conditions in both the original and target lanes, requiring drivers to navigate multi-criteria decision-making processes. More specifically, safe LC execution necessitates gaps in the target lane to satisfy collision-avoidance criteria. Drivers must continuously monitor the real-time states of surrounding vehicles (e.g., velocity, acceleration) and adjust their LC maneuvers in response to unexpected behavioral changes (e.g., sudden deceleration, lane encroachment). Human drivers' irrational decision-making (e.g., sudden risk-preference shifts) in dynamic environments pose challenges to traditional LC models based on hypothesis of rational man. This work is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (72288101, 72171018, 72242102). D.-F Xie is with the School of Systems Science, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing 100044, China (e-mail: dfxie@bjtu.edu.cn). L. Li is with the Department of Automation, BNRist, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China. He is with Laboratory for Information and Decision Systems, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge MA 02139, the United States (e-mail: he.zb@hotmail.com) This effort will provide critical support for trustworthy traffic simulations, dynamic traffic management, and LC decision-making of autonomous vehicles (A Vs).
Dyn-D$^2$P: Dynamic Differentially Private Decentralized Learning with Provable Utility Guarantee
Zhu, Zehan, Huang, Yan, Wang, Xin, Ji, Shouling, Xu, Jinming
Most existing decentralized learning methods with differential privacy (DP) guarantee rely on constant gradient clipping bounds and fixed-level DP Gaussian noises for each node throughout the training process, leading to a significant accuracy degradation compared to non-private counterparts. In this paper, we propose a new Dynamic Differentially Private Decentralized learning approach (termed Dyn-D$^2$P) tailored for general time-varying directed networks. Leveraging the Gaussian DP (GDP) framework for privacy accounting, Dyn-D$^2$P dynamically adjusts gradient clipping bounds and noise levels based on gradient convergence. This proposed dynamic noise strategy enables us to enhance model accuracy while preserving the total privacy budget. Extensive experiments on benchmark datasets demonstrate the superiority of Dyn-D$^2$P over its counterparts employing fixed-level noises, especially under strong privacy guarantees. Furthermore, we provide a provable utility bound for Dyn-D$^2$P that establishes an explicit dependency on network-related parameters, with a scaling factor of $1/\sqrt{n}$ in terms of the number of nodes $n$ up to a bias error term induced by gradient clipping. To our knowledge, this is the first model utility analysis for differentially private decentralized non-convex optimization with dynamic gradient clipping bounds and noise levels.
RiM: Record, Improve and Maintain Physical Well-being using Federated Learning
In academic settings, the demanding environment often forces students to prioritize academic performance over their physical well-being. Moreover, privacy concerns and the inherent risk of data breaches hinder the deployment of traditional machine learning techniques for addressing these health challenges. In this study, we introduce RiM: Record, Improve, and Maintain, a mobile application which incorporates a novel personalized machine learning framework that leverages federated learning to enhance students' physical well-being by analyzing their lifestyle habits. Our approach involves pre-training a multilayer perceptron (MLP) model on a large-scale simulated dataset to generate personalized recommendations. Subsequently, we employ federated learning to fine-tune the model using data from IISER Bhopal students, thereby ensuring its applicability in real-world scenarios. The federated learning approach guarantees differential privacy by exclusively sharing model weights rather than raw data. Experimental results show that the FedAvg-based RiM model achieves an average accuracy of 60.71% and a mean absolute error of 0.91--outperforming the FedPer variant (average accuracy 46.34%, MAE 1.19)--thereby demonstrating its efficacy in predicting lifestyle deficits under privacy-preserving constraints.
ALFEE: Adaptive Large Foundation Model for EEG Representation
Xiong, Wei, Lin, Junming, Li, Jiangtong, Li, Jie, Jiang, Changjun
While foundation models excel in text, image, and video domains, the critical biological signals, particularly electroencephalography(EEG), remain underexplored. EEG benefits neurological research with its high temporal resolution, operational practicality, and safety profile. However, low signal-to-noise ratio, inter-subject variability, and cross-paradigm differences hinder the generalization of current models. Existing methods often employ simplified strategies, such as a single loss function or a channel-temporal joint representation module, and suffer from a domain gap between pretraining and evaluation tasks that compromises efficiency and adaptability. To address these limitations, we propose the Adaptive Large Foundation model for EEG signal representation(ALFEE) framework, a novel hybrid transformer architecture with two learning stages for robust EEG representation learning. ALFEE employs a hybrid attention that separates channel-wise feature aggregation from temporal dynamics modeling, enabling robust EEG representation with variable channel configurations. A channel encoder adaptively compresses variable channel information, a temporal encoder captures task-guided evolution, and a hybrid decoder reconstructs signals in both temporal and frequency domains. During pretraining, ALFEE optimizes task prediction, channel and temporal mask reconstruction, and temporal forecasting to enhance multi-scale and multi-channel representation. During fine-tuning, a full-model adaptation with a task-specific token dictionary and a cross-attention layer boosts performance across multiple tasks. After 25,000 hours of pretraining, extensive experimental results on six downstream EEG tasks demonstrate the superior performance of ALFEE over existing models. Our ALFEE framework establishes a scalable foundation for biological signal analysis with implementation at https://github.com/xw1216/ALFEE.
A machine learning model for skillful climate system prediction
Zhou, Chenguang, Chen, Lei, Zhong, Xiaohui, Lu, Bo, Li, Hao, Wu, Libo, Wu, Jie, Hu, Jiahui, Dou, Zesheng, Hsu, Pang-Chi, Zhang, Xiaoye
Climate system models (CSMs), through integrating cross-sphere interactions among the atmosphere, ocean, land, and cryosphere, have emerged as pivotal tools for deciphering climate dynamics and improving forecasting capabilities. Recent breakthroughs in artificial intelligence (AI)-driven meteorological modeling have demonstrated remarkable success in single-sphere systems and partially spheres coupled systems. However, the development of a fully coupled AI-based climate system model encompassing atmosphere-ocean-land-sea ice interactions has remained an unresolved challenge. This paper introduces FengShun-CSM, an AI-based CSM model that provides 60-day global daily forecasts for 29 critical variables across atmospheric, oceanic, terrestrial, and cryospheric domains. The model significantly outperforms the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) model in predicting most variables, particularly precipitation, land surface, and oceanic components. This enhanced capability is primarily attributed to its improved representation of intra-seasonal variability modes, most notably the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). Remarkably, FengShun-CSM exhibits substantial potential in predicting subseasonal extreme events. Such breakthroughs will advance its applications in meteorological disaster mitigation, marine ecosystem conservation, and agricultural productivity enhancement. Furthermore, it validates the feasibility of developing AI-powered CSMs through machine learning technologies, establishing a transformative paradigm for next-generation Earth system modeling.
ONERA's CRM WBPN database for machine learning activities, related regression challenge and first results
Peter, Jacques, Bennehard, Quentin, Heib, Sébastien, Hantrais-Gervois, Jean-Luc, Moëns, Frédéric
This paper presents a new Computational Fluid Dynamics database, developed at ONERA, to support the advancement of machine learning techniques for aerodynamic field prediction. It contains 468 Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes simulations using the Spalart-Allmaras turbulence model, performed on the NASA/Boeing Common Research Model wing-body-pylon-nacelle configuration. The database spans a wide range of flow conditions, varying Mach number (including transonic regimes), angle of attack (capturing flow separation), and Reynolds number (based on three stagnation pressures, with one setting matching wind tunnel experiments). The quality of the database is assessed, through checking the convergence level of each computation. Based on these data, a regression challenge is defined. It consists in predicting the wall distributions of pressure and friction coefficients for unseen aerodynamic conditions. The 468 simulations are split into training and testing sets, with the training data made available publicly on the Codabench platform. The paper further evaluates several classical machine learning regressors on this task. Tested pointwise methods include Multi-Layer Perceptrons, $λ$-DNNs, and Decision Trees, while global methods include Multi-Layer Perceptron, k-Nearest Neighbors, Proper Orthogonal Decomposition and IsoMap. Initial performance results, using $R^2$ scores and worst relative mean absolute error metrics, are presented, offering insights into the capabilities of these techniques for the challenge and references for future work.
Modeling supply chain compliance response strategies based on AI synthetic data with structural path regression: A Simulation Study of EU 2027 Mandatory Labor Regulations
In the context of the new mandatory labor compliance in the European Union (EU), which will be implemented in 2027, supply chain enterprises face stringent working hour management requirements and compliance risks. In order to scientifically predict the enterprises' coping behaviors and performance outcomes under the policy impact, this paper constructs a methodological framework that integrates the AI synthetic data generation mechanism and structural path regression modeling to simulate the enterprises' strategic transition paths under the new regulations. In terms of research methodology, this paper adopts high-quality simulation data generated based on Monte Carlo mechanism and NIST synthetic data standards to construct a structural path analysis model that includes multiple linear regression, logistic regression, mediation effect and moderating effect. The variable system covers 14 indicators such as enterprise working hours, compliance investment, response speed, automation level, policy dependence, etc. The variable set with explanatory power is screened out through exploratory data analysis (EDA) and VIF multicollinearity elimination. The findings show that compliance investment has a significant positive impact on firm survival and its effect is transmitted through the mediating path of the level of intelligence; meanwhile, firms' dependence on the EU market significantly moderates the strength of this mediating effect. It is concluded that AI synthetic data combined with structural path modeling provides an effective tool for high-intensity regulatory simulation, which can provide a quantitative basis for corporate strategic response, policy design and AI-assisted decision-making in the pre-prediction stage lacking real scenario data. Keywords: AI synthetic data, structural path regression modeling, compliance response strategy, EU 2027 mandatory labor regulation