Gaussian process regression is a popular model in the small data regime due to its sound uncertainty quantification and the exploitation of the smoothness of the regression function that is encountered in a wide range of practical problems. However, Gaussian processes perform sub-optimally when the degree of smoothness is non-homogeneous across the input domain. Random forest regression partially addresses this issue by providing local basis functions of variable support set sizes that are chosen in a data-driven way. However, they do so at the expense of forgoing any degree of smoothness, which often results in poor performance in the small data regime. Here, we aim to combine the advantages of both models by applying a kernel-based smoothing mechanism to a learned random forest or any other piecewise constant prediction function. As we demonstrate empirically, the resulting model consistently improves the predictive performance of the underlying random forests and, in almost all test cases, also improves the log loss of the usual uncertainty quantification based on inter-tree variance. The latter advantage can be attributed to the ability of the smoothing model to take into account the uncertainty over the exact tree-splitting locations.

We study the problem of monitoring machine learning models under gradual distribution shifts, where circumstances change slowly over time, often leading to unnoticed yet significant declines in accuracy. To address this, we propose Incremental Uncertainty-aware Performance Monitoring (IUPM), a novel label-free method that estimates performance changes by modeling gradual shifts using optimal transport. In addition, IUPM quantifies the uncertainty in the performance prediction and introduces an active labeling procedure to restore a reliable estimate under a limited labeling budget. Our experiments show that IUPM outperforms existing performance estimation baselines in various gradual shift scenarios and that its uncertainty awareness guides label acquisition more effectively compared to other strategies.

Machine unlearning is essential for meeting legal obligations such as the right to be forgotten, which requires the removal of specific data from machine learning models upon request. While several approaches to unlearning have been proposed, existing solutions often struggle with efficiency and, more critically, with the verification of unlearning - particularly in the case of weak unlearning guarantees, where verification remains an open challenge. We introduce a generalized variant of the standard unlearning metric that enables more efficient and precise unlearning strategies. We also present an unlearning-aware training procedure that, in many cases, allows for exact unlearning. We term our approach MaxRR. When exact unlearning is not feasible, MaxRR still supports efficient unlearning with properties closely matching those achieved through full retraining.

Clustering multivariate time series data is a crucial task in many domains, as it enables the identification of meaningful patterns and groups in time-evolving data. Traditional approaches, such as crisp clustering, rely on the assumption that clusters are sufficiently separated with little overlap. However, real-world data often defy this assumption, exhibiting overlapping distributions or overlapping clouds of points and blurred boundaries between clusters. Fuzzy clustering offers a compelling alternative by allowing partial membership in multiple clusters, making it well-suited for these ambiguous scenarios. Despite its advantages, current fuzzy clustering methods primarily focus on univariate time series, and for multivariate cases, even datasets of moderate dimensionality become computationally prohibitive. This challenge is further exacerbated when dealing with time series of varying lengths, leaving a clear gap in addressing the complexities of modern datasets. This work introduces a novel fuzzy clustering approach based on common principal component analysis to address the aforementioned shortcomings. Our method has the advantage of efficiently handling high-dimensional multivariate time series by reducing dimensionality while preserving critical temporal features. Extensive numerical results show that our proposed clustering method outperforms several existing approaches in the literature. An interesting application involving brain signals from different drivers recorded from a simulated driving experiment illustrates the potential of the approach.

In this thesis, we introduce Bayesian filtering as a principled framework for tackling diverse sequential machine learning problems, including online (continual) learning, pre-quential (one-step-ahead) forecasting, and contextual bandits. To this end, this thesis addresses key challenges in applying Bayesian filtering to these problems: adaptivity to non-stationary environments, robustness to model misspecification and outliers, and scalability to the high-dimensional parameter space of deep neural networks. We develop novel tools within the Bayesian filtering framework to address each of these challenges, including: (i) a modular framework that enables the development adaptive approaches for online learning; (ii) a novel, provably robust filter with similar computational cost to standard filters, that employs Generalised Bayes; and (iii) a set of tools for sequentially updating model parameters using approximate second-order optimisation methods that exploit the overparametrisation of high-dimensional parametric models such as neural networks. Theoretical analysis and empirical results demonstrate the improved performance of our methods in dynamic, high-dimensional, and misspecified models.

Mediation analysis breaks down the causal effect of a treatment on an outcome into an indirect effect, acting through a third group of variables called mediators, and a direct effect, operating through other mechanisms. Mediation analysis is hard because confounders between treatment, mediators, and outcome blur effect estimates in observational studies. Many estimators have been proposed to adjust on those confounders and provide accurate causal estimates. We consider parametric and non-parametric implementations of classical estimators and provide a thorough evaluation for the estimation of the direct and indirect effects in the context of causal mediation analysis for binary, continuous, and multi-dimensional mediators. We assess several approaches in a comprehensive benchmark on simulated data. Our results show that advanced statistical approaches such as the multiply robust and the double machine learning estimators achieve good performances in most of the simulated settings and on real data. As an example of application, we propose a thorough analysis of factors known to influence cognitive functions to assess if the mechanism involves modifications in brain morphology using the UK Biobank brain imaging cohort. This analysis shows that for several physiological factors, such as hypertension and obesity, a substantial part of the effect is mediated by changes in the brain structure. This work provides guidance to the practitioner from the formulation of a valid causal mediation problem, including the verification of the identification assumptions, to the choice of an adequate estimator.

Machine unlearning focuses on the computationally efficient removal of specific training data from trained models, ensuring that the influence of forgotten data is effectively eliminated without the need for full retraining. Despite advances in low-dimensional settings, where the number of parameters \( p \) is much smaller than the sample size \( n \), extending similar theoretical guarantees to high-dimensional regimes remains challenging. We propose an unlearning algorithm that starts from the original model parameters and performs a theory-guided sequence of Newton steps \( T \in \{ 1,2\}\). After this update, carefully scaled isotropic Laplacian noise is added to the estimate to ensure that any (potential) residual influence of forget data is completely removed. We show that when both \( n, p \to \infty \) with a fixed ratio \( n/p \), significant theoretical and computational obstacles arise due to the interplay between the complexity of the model and the finite signal-to-noise ratio. Finally, we show that, unlike in low-dimensional settings, a single Newton step is insufficient for effective unlearning in high-dimensional problems -- however, two steps are enough to achieve the desired certifiebility. We provide numerical experiments to support the certifiability and accuracy claims of this approach.

Higher education dropout constitutes a critical challenge for tertiary education systems worldwide. While machine learning techniques can achieve high predictive accuracy on selected datasets, their adoption by policymakers remains limited and unsatisfactory, particularly when the objective is the unsupervised identification and characterization of student subgroups at elevated risk of dropout. The model introduced in this paper is a specialized form of logistic regression, specifically adapted to the context of university dropout analysis. Logistic regression continues to serve as a foundational tool among reliable statistical models, primarily due to the ease with which its parameters can be interpreted in terms of odds ratios. Our approach significantly extends this framework by incorporating heterogeneity within the student population. This is achieved through the application of a preliminary clustering algorithm that identifies latent subgroups, each characterized by distinct dropout propensities, which are then modeled via cluster-specific effects. We provide a detailed interpretation of the model parameters within this extended framework and enhance interpretability by imposing sparsity through a tailored variant of the LASSO algorithm. To demonstrate the practical applicability of the proposed methodology, we present an extensive case study based on the Italian university system, in which all the developed tools are systematically applied

The problem of using proximity (similarity or dissimilarity) data for the purpose of "adding a point to a vector diagram" was first studied by J.C. Gower in 1968. Since then, a number of methods -- mostly kernel methods -- have been proposed for solving what has come to be called the problem of *out-of-sample embedding*. We survey the various kernel methods that we have encountered and show that each can be derived from one or the other of two competing strategies: *projection* or *restricted reconstruction*. Projection can be analogized to a well-known formula for adding a point to a principal component analysis. Restricted reconstruction poses a different challenge: how to best approximate redoing the entire multivariate analysis while holding fixed the vector diagram that was previously obtained. This strategy results in a nonlinear optimization problem that can be simplified to a unidimensional search. Various circumstances may warrant either projection or restricted reconstruction.

The approximation of mixed Nash equilibria (MNE) for zero-sum games with mean-field interacting players has recently raised much interest in machine learning. In this paper we propose a mean-field gradient descent dynamics for finding the MNE of zero-sum games involving $K$ players with $K\geq 2$. The evolution of the players' strategy distributions follows coupled mean-field gradient descent flows with momentum, incorporating an exponentially discounted time-averaging of gradients. First, in the case of a fixed entropic regularization, we prove an exponential convergence rate for the mean-field dynamics to the mixed Nash equilibrium with respect to the total variation metric. This improves a previous polynomial convergence rate for a similar time-averaged dynamics with different averaging factors. Moreover, unlike previous two-scale approaches for finding the MNE, our approach treats all player types on the same time scale. We also show that with a suitable choice of decreasing temperature, a simulated annealing version of the mean-field dynamics converges to an MNE of the initial unregularized problem.