Statistical Learning
Transformers as Unsupervised Learning Algorithms: A study on Gaussian Mixtures
Chen, Zhiheng, Wu, Ruofan, Fang, Guanhua
The transformer architecture has demonstrated remarkable capabilities in modern artificial intelligence, among which the capability of implicitly learning an internal model during inference time is widely believed to play a key role in the under standing of pre-trained large language models. However, most recent works have been focusing on studying supervised learning topics such as in-context learning, leaving the field of unsupervised learning largely unexplored. This paper investigates the capabilities of transformers in solving Gaussian Mixture Models (GMMs), a fundamental unsupervised learning problem through the lens of statistical estimation. We propose a transformer-based learning framework called TGMM that simultaneously learns to solve multiple GMM tasks using a shared transformer backbone. The learned models are empirically demonstrated to effectively mitigate the limitations of classical methods such as Expectation-Maximization (EM) or spectral algorithms, at the same time exhibit reasonable robustness to distribution shifts. Theoretically, we prove that transformers can approximate both the EM algorithm and a core component of spectral methods (cubic tensor power iterations). These results bridge the gap between practical success and theoretical understanding, positioning transformers as versatile tools for unsupervised learning.
Structure-based Anomaly Detection and Clustering
Anomaly detection is a fundamental problem in domains such as healthcare, manufacturing, and cybersecurity. This thesis proposes new unsupervised methods for anomaly detection in both structured and streaming data settings. In the first part, we focus on structure-based anomaly detection, where normal data follows low-dimensional manifolds while anomalies deviate from them. We introduce Preference Isolation Forest (PIF), which embeds data into a high-dimensional preference space via manifold fitting, and isolates outliers using two variants: Voronoi-iForest, based on geometric distances, and RuzHash-iForest, leveraging Locality Sensitive Hashing for scalability. We also propose Sliding-PIF, which captures local manifold information for streaming scenarios. Our methods outperform existing techniques on synthetic and real datasets. We extend this to structure-based clustering with MultiLink, a novel method for recovering multiple geometric model families in noisy data. MultiLink merges clusters via a model-aware linkage strategy, enabling robust multi-class structure recovery. It offers key advantages over existing approaches, such as speed, reduced sensitivity to thresholds, and improved robustness to poor initial sampling. The second part of the thesis addresses online anomaly detection in evolving data streams. We propose Online Isolation Forest (Online-iForest), which uses adaptive, multi-resolution histograms and dynamically updates tree structures to track changes over time. It avoids retraining while achieving accuracy comparable to offline models, with superior efficiency for real-time applications. Finally, we tackle anomaly detection in cybersecurity via open-set recognition for malware classification. We enhance a Gradient Boosting classifier with MaxLogit to detect unseen malware families, a method now integrated into Cleafy's production system.
Importance Sampling for Nonlinear Models
Rajmohan, Prakash Palanivelu, Roosta, Fred
While norm-based and leverage-score-based methods have been extensively studied for identifying "important" data points in linear models, analogous tools for nonlinear models remain significantly underdeveloped. By introducing the concept of the adjoint operator of a nonlinear map, we address this gap and generalize norm-based and leverage-score-based importance sampling to nonlinear settings. We demonstrate that sampling based on these generalized notions of norm and leverage scores provides approximation guarantees for the underlying nonlinear mapping, similar to linear subspace embeddings. As direct applications, these nonlinear scores not only reduce the computational complexity of training nonlinear models by enabling efficient sampling over large datasets but also offer a novel mechanism for model explainability and outlier detection. Our contributions are supported by both theoretical analyses and experimental results across a variety of supervised learning scenarios.
Multi-modal contrastive learning adapts to intrinsic dimensions of shared latent variables
Gui, Yu, Ma, Cong, Ma, Zongming
Multi-modal contrastive learning as a self-supervised representation learning technique has achieved great success in foundation model training, such as CLIP~\citep{radford2021learning}. In this paper, we study the theoretical properties of the learned representations from multi-modal contrastive learning beyond linear representations and specific data distributions. Our analysis reveals that, enabled by temperature optimization, multi-modal contrastive learning not only maximizes mutual information between modalities but also adapts to intrinsic dimensions of data, which can be much lower than user-specified dimensions for representation vectors. Experiments on both synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate the ability of contrastive learning to learn low-dimensional and informative representations, bridging theoretical insights and practical performance.
CLT and Edgeworth Expansion for m-out-of-n Bootstrap Estimators of The Studentized Median
Banerjee, Imon, Chakrabarty, Sayak
The m-out-of-n bootstrap, originally proposed by Bickel, Gotze, and Zwet (1992), approximates the distribution of a statistic by repeatedly drawing m subsamples (with m much smaller than n) without replacement from an original sample of size n. It is now routinely used for robust inference with heavy-tailed data, bandwidth selection, and other large-sample applications. Despite its broad applicability across econometrics, biostatistics, and machine learning, rigorous parameter-free guarantees for the soundness of the m-out-of-n bootstrap when estimating sample quantiles have remained elusive. This paper establishes such guarantees by analyzing the estimator of sample quantiles obtained from m-out-of-n resampling of a dataset of size n. We first prove a central limit theorem for a fully data-driven version of the estimator that holds under a mild moment condition and involves no unknown nuisance parameters. We then show that the moment assumption is essentially tight by constructing a counter-example in which the CLT fails. Strengthening the assumptions slightly, we derive an Edgeworth expansion that provides exact convergence rates and, as a corollary, a Berry Esseen bound on the bootstrap approximation error. Finally, we illustrate the scope of our results by deriving parameter-free asymptotic distributions for practical statistics, including the quantiles for random walk Metropolis-Hastings and the rewards of ergodic Markov decision processes, thereby demonstrating the usefulness of our theory in modern estimation and learning tasks.
High-Dimensional Dynamic Covariance Models with Random Forests
Yu, Shuguang, Zhou, Fan, Zhang, Yingjie, Chen, Ziqi, Zhu, Hongtu
This paper introduces a novel nonparametric method for estimating high-dimensional dynamic covariance matrices with multiple conditioning covariates, leveraging random forests and supported by robust theoretical guarantees. Unlike traditional static methods, our dynamic nonparametric covariance models effectively capture distributional heterogeneity. Furthermore, unlike kernel-smoothing methods, which are restricted to a single conditioning covariate, our approach accommodates multiple covariates in a fully nonparametric framework. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first method to use random forests for estimating high-dimensional dynamic covariance matrices. In high-dimensional settings, we establish uniform consistency theory, providing nonasymptotic error rates and model selection properties, even when the response dimension grows sub-exponentially with the sample size. These results hold uniformly across a range of conditioning variables. The method's effectiveness is demonstrated through simulations and a stock dataset analysis, highlighting its ability to model complex dynamics in high-dimensional scenarios.
Make Still Further Progress: Chain of Thoughts for Tabular Data Leaderboard
Liu, Si-Yang, Zhou, Qile, Ye, Han-Jia
Tabular data, a fundamental data format in machine learning, is predominantly utilized in competitions and real-world applications. The performance of tabular models--such as gradient boosted decision trees and neural networks--can vary significantly across datasets due to differences in feature distributions and task characteristics. Achieving top performance on each dataset often requires specialized expert knowledge. To address this variability, practitioners often aggregate the predictions of multiple models. However, conventional aggregation strategies typically rely on static combination rules and lack instance-level adaptability. In this work, we propose an in-context ensemble framework for tabular prediction that leverages large language models (LLMs) to perform dynamic, instance-specific integration of external model predictions. Without access to raw tabular features or semantic information, our method constructs a context around each test instance using its nearest neighbors and the predictions from a pool of external models. Within this enriched context, we introduce Chain of Tabular Thoughts (CoT$^2$), a prompting strategy that guides LLMs through multi-step, interpretable reasoning, making still further progress toward expert-level decision-making. Experimental results show that our method outperforms well-tuned baselines and standard ensemble techniques across a wide range of tabular datasets.
CompeteSMoE -- Statistically Guaranteed Mixture of Experts Training via Competition
Nguyen, Nam V., Nguyen, Huy, Pham, Quang, Nguyen, Van, Ramasamy, Savitha, Ho, Nhat
Sparse mixture of experts (SMoE) offers an appealing solution to scale up the model complexity beyond the mean of increasing the network's depth or width. However, we argue that effective SMoE training remains challenging because of the suboptimal routing process where experts that perform computation do not directly contribute to the routing process. In this work, we propose competition, a novel mechanism to route tokens to experts with the highest neural response. Theoretically, we show that the competition mechanism enjoys a better sample efficiency than the traditional softmax routing. Furthermore, we develop CompeteSMoE, a simple yet effective algorithm to train large language models by deploying a router to learn the competition policy, thus enjoying strong performances at a low training overhead. Our extensive empirical evaluations on both the visual instruction tuning and language pre-training tasks demonstrate the efficacy, robustness, and scalability of CompeteSMoE compared to state-of-the-art SMoE strategies. We have made the implementation available at: https://github.com/Fsoft-AIC/CompeteSMoE. This work is an improved version of the previous study at arXiv:2402.02526
Restoration Score Distillation: From Corrupted Diffusion Pretraining to One-Step High-Quality Generation
Zhang, Yasi, Chen, Tianyu, Wang, Zhendong, Wu, Ying Nian, Zhou, Mingyuan, Leong, Oscar
Learning generative models from corrupted data is a fundamental yet persistently challenging task across scientific disciplines, particularly when access to clean data is limited or expensive. Denoising Score Distillation (DSD) \cite{chen2025denoising} recently introduced a novel and surprisingly effective strategy that leverages score distillation to train high-fidelity generative models directly from noisy observations. Building upon this foundation, we propose \textit{Restoration Score Distillation} (RSD), a principled generalization of DSD that accommodates a broader range of corruption types, such as blurred, incomplete, or low-resolution images. RSD operates by first pretraining a teacher diffusion model solely on corrupted data and subsequently distilling it into a single-step generator that produces high-quality reconstructions. Empirically, RSD consistently surpasses its teacher model across diverse restoration tasks on both natural and scientific datasets. Moreover, beyond standard diffusion objectives, the RSD framework is compatible with several corruption-aware training techniques such as Ambient Tweedie, Ambient Diffusion, and its Fourier-space variant, enabling flexible integration with recent advances in diffusion modeling. Theoretically, we demonstrate that in a linear regime, RSD recovers the eigenspace of the clean data covariance matrix from linear measurements, thereby serving as an implicit regularizer. This interpretation recasts score distillation not only as a sampling acceleration technique but as a principled approach to enhancing generative performance in severely degraded data regimes.
Measuring Social Influence with Networked Synthetic Control
Measuring social influence is difficult due to the lack of counter-factuals and comparisons. By combining machine learning-based modeling and network science, we present general properties of social value, a recent measure for social influence using synthetic control applicable to political behavior. Social value diverges from centrality measures on in that it relies on an external regressor to predict an output variable of interest, generates a synthetic measure of influence, then distributes individual contribution based on a social network. Through theoretical derivations, we show the properties of SV under linear regression with and without interaction, across lattice networks, power-law networks, and random graphs. A reduction in computation can be achieved for any ensemble model. Through simulation, we find that the generalized friendship paradox holds -- that in certain situations, your friends have on average more influence than you do.