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 Statistical Learning


CSTS: A Benchmark for the Discovery of Correlation Structures in Time Series Clustering

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Time series clustering promises to uncover hidden structural patterns in data with applications across healthcare, finance, industrial systems, and other critical domains. However, without validated ground truth information, researchers cannot objectively assess clustering quality or determine whether poor results stem from absent structures in the data, algorithmic limitations, or inappropriate validation methods, raising the question whether clustering is "more art than science" (Guyon et al., 2009). To address these challenges, we introduce CSTS (Correlation Structures in Time Series), a synthetic benchmark for evaluating the discovery of correlation structures in multivariate time series data. CSTS provides a clean benchmark that enables researchers to isolate and identify specific causes of clustering failures by differentiating between correlation structure deterioration and limitations of clustering algorithms and validation methods. Our contributions are: (1) a comprehensive benchmark for correlation structure discovery with distinct correlation structures, systematically varied data conditions, established performance thresholds, and recommended evaluation protocols; (2) empirical validation of correlation structure preservation showing moderate distortion from downsampling and minimal effects from distribution shifts and sparsification; and (3) an extensible data generation framework enabling structure-first clustering evaluation. A case study demonstrates CSTS's practical utility by identifying an algorithm's previously undocumented sensitivity to non-normal distributions, illustrating how the benchmark enables precise diagnosis of methodological limitations. CSTS advances rigorous evaluation standards for correlation-based time series clustering.


A system identification approach to clustering vector autoregressive time series

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Clustering of time series based on their underlying dynamics is keeping attracting researchers due to its impacts on assisting complex system modelling. Most current time series clustering methods handle only scalar time series, treat them as white noise, or rely on domain knowledge for high-quality feature construction, where the autocorrelation pattern/feature is mostly ignored. Instead of relying on heuristic feature/metric construction, the system identification approach allows treating vector time series clustering by explicitly considering their underlying autoregressive dynamics. We first derive a clustering algorithm based on a mixture autoregressive model. Unfortunately it turns out to have significant computational problems. We then derive a `small-noise' limiting version of the algorithm, which we call k-LMVAR (Limiting Mixture Vector AutoRegression), that is computationally manageable. We develop an associated BIC criterion for choosing the number of clusters and model order. The algorithm performs very well in comparative simulations and also scales well computationally.


Panda: A pretrained forecast model for universal representation of chaotic dynamics

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Chaotic systems are intrinsically sensitive to small errors, challenging efforts to construct predictive data-driven models of real-world dynamical systems such as fluid flows or neuronal activity. Prior efforts comprise either specialized models trained separately on individual time series, or foundation models trained on vast time series databases with little underlying dynamical structure. Motivated by dynamical systems theory, we present Panda, Patched Attention for Nonlinear DynAmics. We train Panda on a novel synthetic, extensible dataset of $2 \times 10^4$ chaotic dynamical systems that we discover using an evolutionary algorithm. Trained purely on simulated data, Panda exhibits emergent properties: zero-shot forecasting of unseen real world chaotic systems, and nonlinear resonance patterns in cross-channel attention heads. Despite having been trained only on low-dimensional ordinary differential equations, Panda spontaneously develops the ability to predict partial differential equations without retraining. We demonstrate a neural scaling law for differential equations, underscoring the potential of pretrained models for probing abstract mathematical domains like nonlinear dynamics.


Assessing wildfire susceptibility in Iran: Leveraging machine learning for geospatial analysis of climatic and anthropogenic factors

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This study investigates the multifaceted factors influencing wildfire risk in Iran, focusing on the interplay between climatic conditions and human activities. Utilizing advanced remote sensing, geospatial information system (GIS) processing techniques such as cloud computing, and machine learning algorithms, this research analyzed the impact of climatic parameters, topographic features, and human-related factors on wildfire susceptibility assessment and prediction in Iran. Multiple scenarios were developed for this purpose based on the data sampling strategy. The findings revealed that climatic elements such as soil moisture, temperature, and humidity significantly contribute to wildfire susceptibility, while human activities-particularly population density and proximity to powerlines-also played a crucial role. Furthermore, the seasonal impact of each parameter was separately assessed during warm and cold seasons. The results indicated that human-related factors, rather than climatic variables, had a more prominent influence during the seasonal analyses. This research provided new insights into wildfire dynamics in Iran by generating high-resolution wildfire susceptibility maps using advanced machine learning classifiers. The generated maps identified high risk areas, particularly in the central Zagros region, the northeastern Hyrcanian Forest, and the northern Arasbaran forest, highlighting the urgent need for effective fire management strategies.


Open Set Domain Adaptation with Vision-language models via Gradient-aware Separation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Open-Set Domain Adaptation (OSDA) confronts the dual challenge of aligning known-class distributions across domains while identifying target-domain-specific unknown categories. Current approaches often fail to leverage semantic relationships between modalities and struggle with error accumulation in unknown sample detection. We propose to harness Contrastive Language-Image Pretraining (CLIP) to address these limitations through two key innovations: 1) Prompt-driven cross-domain alignment: Learnable textual prompts conditioned on domain discrepancy metrics dynamically adapt CLIP's text encoder, enabling semantic consistency between source and target domains without explicit unknown-class supervision. 2) Gradient-aware open-set separation: A gradient analysis module quantifies domain shift by comparing the L2-norm of gradients from the learned prompts, where known/unknown samples exhibit statistically distinct gradient behaviors. Evaluations on Office-Home show that our method consistently outperforms CLIP baseline and standard baseline. Ablation studies confirm the gradient norm's critical role.


A portable diagnosis model for Keratoconus using a smartphone

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Keratoconus (KC) is a corneal disorder that results in blurry and distorted vision. Traditional diagnostic tools, while effective, are often bulky, costly, and require professional operation. In this paper, we present a portable and innovative methodology for diagnosing. Our proposed approach first captures the image reflected on the eye's cornea when a smartphone screen-generated Placido disc sheds its light on an eye, then utilizes a two-stage diagnosis for identifying the KC cornea and pinpointing the location of the KC on the cornea. The first stage estimates the height and width of the Placido disc extracted from the captured image to identify whether it has KC. In this KC identification, k-means clustering is implemented to discern statistical characteristics, such as height and width values of extracted Placido discs, from non-KC (control) and KC-affected groups. The second stage involves the creation of a distance matrix, providing a precise localization of KC on the cornea, which is critical for efficient treatment planning. The analysis of these distance matrices, paired with a logistic regression model and robust statistical analysis, reveals a clear distinction between control and KC groups. The logistic regression model, which classifies small areas on the cornea as either control or KC-affected based on the corresponding inter-disc distances in the distance matrix, reported a classification accuracy of 96.94%, which indicates that we can effectively pinpoint the protrusion caused by KC. This comprehensive, smartphone-based method is expected to detect KC and streamline timely treatment.


Disambiguation of morpho-syntactic features of African American English -- the case of habitual be

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Recent research has highlighted that natural language processing (NLP) systems exhibit a bias against African American speakers. The bias errors are often caused by poor representation of linguistic features unique to African American English (AAE), due to the relatively low probability of occurrence of many such features in training data. We present a workflow to overcome such bias in the case of habitual "be". Habitual "be" is isomorphic, and therefore ambiguous, with other forms of "be" found in both AAE and other varieties of English. This creates a clear challenge for bias in NLP technologies. To overcome the scarcity, we employ a combination of rule-based filters and data augmentation that generate a corpus balanced between habitual and non-habitual instances. With this balanced corpus, we train unbiased machine learning classifiers, as demonstrated on a corpus of AAE transcribed texts, achieving .65 F$_1$ score disambiguating habitual "be".


Early Diagnosis of Atrial Fibrillation Recurrence: A Large Tabular Model Approach with Structured and Unstructured Clinical Data

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

BACKGROUND: Atrial fibrillation (AF), the most common arrhythmia, is linked to high morbidity and mortality. In a fast-evolving AF rhythm control treatment era, predicting AF recurrence after its onset may be crucial to achieve the optimal therapeutic approach, yet traditional scores like CHADS2-VASc, HATCH, and APPLE show limited predictive accuracy. Moreover, early diagnosis studies often rely on codified electronic health record (EHR) data, which may contain errors and missing information. OBJECTIVE: This study aims to predict AF recurrence between one month and two years after onset by evaluating traditional clinical scores, ML models, and our LTM approach. Moreover, another objective is to develop a methodology for integrating structured and unstructured data to enhance tabular dataset quality. METHODS: A tabular dataset was generated by combining structured clinical data with free-text discharge reports processed through natural language processing techniques, reducing errors and annotation effort. A total of 1,508 patients with documented AF onset were identified, and models were evaluated on a manually annotated test set. The proposed approach includes a LTM compared against traditional clinical scores and ML models. RESULTS: The proposed LTM approach achieved the highest predictive performance, surpassing both traditional clinical scores and ML models. Additionally, the gender and age bias analyses revealed demographic disparities. CONCLUSION: The integration of structured data and free-text sources resulted in a high-quality dataset. The findings emphasize the limitations of traditional clinical scores in predicting AF recurrence and highlight the potential of ML-based approaches, particularly our LTM model.


MultiTab: A Comprehensive Benchmark Suite for Multi-Dimensional Evaluation in Tabular Domains

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Despite the widespread use of tabular data in real-world applications, most benchmarks rely on average-case metrics, which fail to reveal how model behavior varies across diverse data regimes. To address this, we propose MultiTab, a benchmark suite and evaluation framework for multi-dimensional, data-aware analysis of tabular learning algorithms. Rather than comparing models only in aggregate, MultiTab categorizes 196 publicly available datasets along key data characteristics, including sample size, label imbalance, and feature interaction, and evaluates 13 representative models spanning a range of inductive biases. Our analysis shows that model performance is highly sensitive to such regimes: for example, models using sample-level similarity excel on datasets with large sample sizes or high inter-feature correlation, while models encoding inter-feature dependencies perform best with weakly correlated features. These findings reveal that inductive biases do not always behave as intended, and that regime-aware evaluation is essential for understanding and improving model behavior. MultiTab enables more principled model design and offers practical guidance for selecting models tailored to specific data characteristics. All datasets, code, and optimization logs are publicly available at https://huggingface.co/datasets/LGAI-DILab/Multitab.


Fast and close Shannon entropy approximation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Shannon entropy (SE) and its quantum mechanical analogue von Neumann entropy are key components in many tools used in physics, information theory, machine learning (ML) and quantum computing. Besides of the significant amounts of SE computations required in these fields, the singularity of the SE gradient is one of the central mathematical reason inducing the high cost, frequently low robustness and slow convergence of such tools. Here we propose the Fast Entropy Approximation (FEA) - a non-singular rational approximation of Shannon entropy and its gradient that achieves a mean absolute error of $10^{-3}$, which is approximately $20$ times lower than comparable state-of-the-art methods. FEA allows around $50\%$ faster computation, requiring only $5$ to $6$ elementary computational operations, as compared to tens of elementary operations behind the fastest entropy computation algorithms with table look-ups, bitshifts, or series approximations. On a set of common benchmarks for the feature selection problem in machine learning, we show that the combined effect of fewer elementary operations, low approximation error, and a non-singular gradient allows significantly better model quality and enables ML feature extraction that is two to three orders of magnitude faster and computationally cheaper when incorporating FEA into AI tools.