We introduce GradPCA, an Out-of-Distribution (OOD) detection method that exploits the low-rank structure of neural network gradients induced by Neural Tangent Kernel (NTK) alignment. GradPCA applies Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to gradient class-means, achieving more consistent performance than existing methods across standard image classification benchmarks. We provide a theoretical perspective on spectral OOD detection in neural networks to support GradPCA, highlighting feature-space properties that enable effective detection and naturally emerge from NTK alignment. Our analysis further reveals that feature quality -- particularly the use of pretrained versus non-pretrained representations -- plays a crucial role in determining which detectors will succeed. Extensive experiments validate the strong performance of GradPCA, and our theoretical framework offers guidance for designing more principled spectral OOD detectors.

Filtering-based graph neural networks (GNNs) constitute a distinct class of GNNs that employ graph filters to handle graph-structured data, achieving notable success in various graph-related tasks. Conventional methods adopt a graph-wise filtering paradigm, imposing a uniform filter across all nodes, yet recent findings suggest that this rigid paradigm struggles with heterophilic graphs. To overcome this, recent works have introduced node-wise filtering, which assigns distinct filters to individual nodes, offering enhanced adaptability. However, a fundamental gap remains: a comprehensive framework unifying these two strategies is still absent, limiting theoretical insights into the filtering paradigms. Moreover, through the lens of Contextual Stochastic Block Model, we reveal that a synthesis of graph-wise and node-wise filtering provides a sufficient solution for classification on graphs exhibiting both homophily and heterophily, suggesting the risk of excessive parameterization and potential overfitting with node-wise filtering. To address the limitations, this paper introduces Coarsening-guided Partition-wise Filtering (CPF). CPF innovates by performing filtering on node partitions. The method begins with structure-aware partition-wise filtering, which filters node partitions obtained via graph coarsening algorithms, and then performs feature-aware partition-wise filtering, refining node embeddings via filtering on clusters produced by $k$-means clustering over features. In-depth analysis is conducted for each phase of CPF, showing its superiority over other paradigms. Finally, benchmark node classification experiments, along with a real-world graph anomaly detection application, validate CPF's efficacy and practical utility.

Decision-making across various fields, such as medicine, heavily relies on conditional average treatment effects (CATEs). Practitioners commonly make decisions by checking whether the estimated CATE is positive, even though the decision-making performance of modern CATE estimators is poorly understood from a theoretical perspective. In this paper, we study optimal decision-making based on two-stage CATE estimators (e.g., DR-learner), which are considered state-of-the-art and widely used in practice. We prove that, while such estimators may be optimal for estimating CATE, they can be suboptimal when used for decision-making. Intuitively, this occurs because such estimators prioritize CATE accuracy in regions far away from the decision boundary, which is ultimately irrelevant to decision-making. As a remedy, we propose a novel two-stage learning objective that retargets the CATE to balance CATE estimation error and decision performance. We then propose a neural method that optimizes an adaptively-smoothed approximation of our learning objective. Finally, we confirm the effectiveness of our method both empirically and theoretically. In sum, our work is the first to show how two-stage CATE estimators can be adapted for optimal decision-making.

Large language models struggle with representing and generating rare tokens despite their importance in specialized domains. In this study, we identify neuron structures with exceptionally strong influence on language model's prediction of rare tokens, termed as rare token neurons, and investigate the mechanism for their emergence and behavior. These neurons exhibit a characteristic three-phase organization (plateau, power-law, and rapid decay) that emerges dynamically during training, evolving from a homogeneous initial state to a functionally differentiated architecture. In the activation space, rare token neurons form a coordinated subnetwork that selectively co-activates while avoiding co-activation with other neurons. This functional specialization potentially correlates with the development of heavy-tailed weight distributions, suggesting a statistical mechanical basis for emergent specialization.

Machine learning has demonstrated transformative potential for database operations, such as query optimization and in-database data analytics. However, dynamic database environments, characterized by frequent updates and evolving data distributions, introduce concept drift, which leads to performance degradation for learned models and limits their practical applicability. Addressing this challenge requires efficient frameworks capable of adapting to shifting concepts while minimizing the overhead of retraining or fine-tuning. In this paper, we propose FLAIR, an online adaptation framework that introduces a new paradigm called \textit{in-context adaptation} for learned database operations. FLAIR leverages the inherent property of data systems, i.e., immediate availability of execution results for predictions, to enable dynamic context construction. By formalizing adaptation as $f:(\mathbf{x} \,| \,C_t) \to \mathbf{y}$, with $C_t$ representing a dynamic context memory, FLAIR delivers predictions aligned with the current concept, eliminating the need for runtime parameter optimization. To achieve this, FLAIR integrates two key modules: a Task Featurization Module for encoding task-specific features into standardized representations, and a Dynamic Decision Engine, pre-trained via Bayesian meta-training, to adapt seamlessly using contextual information at runtime. Extensive experiments across key database tasks demonstrate that FLAIR outperforms state-of-the-art baselines, achieving up to 5.2x faster adaptation and reducing error by 22.5% for cardinality estimation.

Brain stroke remains one of the principal causes of death and disability worldwide, yet most tabular-data prediction models still hover below the 95% accuracy threshold, limiting real-world utility. Addressing this gap, the present work develops and validates a completely data-driven and interpretable machine-learning framework designed to predict strokes using ten routinely gathered demographic, lifestyle, and clinical variables sourced from a public cohort of 4,981 records. We employ a detailed exploratory data analysis (EDA) to understand the dataset's structure and distribution, followed by rigorous data preprocessing, including handling missing values, outlier removal, and class imbalance correction using Synthetic Minority Over-sampling Technique (SMOTE). To streamline feature selection, point-biserial correlation and random-forest Gini importance were utilized, and ten varied algorithms-encompassing tree ensembles, boosting, kernel methods, and a multilayer neural network-were optimized using stratified five-fold cross-validation. Their predictions based on probabilities helped us build the proposed model, which included Random Forest, XGBoost, LightGBM, and a support-vector classifier, with logistic regression acting as a meta-learner. The proposed model achieved an accuracy rate of 97.2% and an F1-score of 97.15%, indicating a significant enhancement compared to the leading individual model, LightGBM, which had an accuracy of 91.4%. Our study's findings indicate that rigorous preprocessing, coupled with a diverse hybrid model, can convert low-cost tabular data into a nearly clinical-grade stroke-risk assessment tool.

Graph-structured data is a type of data to be obtained associated with a graph structure where vertices and edges describe some kind of data correlation. This paper proposes a regression method on graph-structured data, which is based on multi-output Gaussian processes (MOGP), to capture both the correlation between vertices and the correlation between associated data. The proposed formulation is built on the definition of MOGP. This allows it to be applied to a wide range of data configurations and scenarios. Moreover, it has high expressive capability due to its flexibility in kernel design. It includes existing methods of Gaussian processes for graph-structured data as special cases and is possible to remove restrictions on data configurations, model selection, and inference scenarios in the existing methods. The performance of extensions achievable by the proposed formulation is evaluated through computer experiments with synthetic and real data.

--Stock price prediction is a critical area of financial forecasting, traditionally approached by training models using the historical price data of individual stocks. While these models effectively capture single-stock patterns, they fail to leverage potential correlations among stock trends, which could improve predictive performance. Current single-stock learning methods are thus limited in their ability to provide a broader understanding of price dynamics across multiple stocks. T o address this, we propose a novel method that merges local patterns into a global understanding through cross-stock pattern integration. Our strategy is inspired by Federated Learning (FL), a paradigm designed for decentralized model training. FL enables collaborative learning across distributed datasets without sharing raw data, facilitating the aggregation of global insights while preserving data privacy. In our adaptation, we train models on individual stock data and iteratively merge them to create a unified global model. This global model is subsequently fine-tuned on specific stock data to retain local relevance. The proposed strategy enables parallel training of individual stock models, facilitating efficient utilization of computational resources and reducing overall training time. We conducted extensive experiments to evaluate the proposed method, demonstrating that it outperforms benchmark models and enhances the predictive capabilities of state-of-the-art approaches. Our results highlight the efficacy of Cross-Stock Trend Integration (CSTI) in advancing stock price prediction, offering a robust alternative to traditional single-stock learning methodologies. TOCK price prediction has long been a cornerstone of financial research, with its origins rooted in attempts to model and forecast market behavior for informed decision-making.

Most existing multivariate time series forecasting methods adopt an all-to-all paradigm that feeds all variable histories into a unified model to predict their future values without distinguishing their individual roles. However, this undifferentiated paradigm makes it difficult to identify variable-specific causal influences and often entangles causally relevant information with spurious correlations. To address this limitation, we propose an all-to-one forecasting paradigm that predicts each target variable separately. Specifically, we first construct a Structural Causal Model from observational data and then, for each target variable, we partition the historical sequence into four sub-segments according to the inferred causal structure: endogenous, direct causal, collider causal, and spurious correlation. The prediction relies solely on the first three causally relevant sub-segments, while the spurious correlation sub-segment is excluded. Furthermore, we propose Causal Informed Transformer (CAIFormer), a novel forecasting model comprising three components: Endogenous Sub-segment Prediction Block, Direct Causal Sub-segment Prediction Block, and Collider Causal Sub-segment Prediction Block, which process the endogenous, direct causal, and collider causal sub-segments, respectively. Their outputs are then combined to produce the final prediction. Extensive experiments on multiple benchmark datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of the CAIFormer.

Tabular data, owing to its ubiquitous presence in real-world domains, has garnered significant attention in machine learning research. While tree-based models have long dominated tabular machine learning tasks, the recently proposed deep learning model TabPFN v2 has emerged, demonstrating unparalleled performance and scalability potential. Although extensive research has been conducted on TabPFN v2 to further improve performance, the majority of this research remains confined to closed environments, neglecting the challenges that frequently arise in open environments. This raises the question: Can TabPFN v2 maintain good performance in open environments? To this end, we conduct the first comprehensive evaluation of TabPFN v2's adaptability in open environments. We construct a unified evaluation framework covering various real-world challenges and assess the robustness of TabPFN v2 under open environments scenarios using this framework. Empirical results demonstrate that TabPFN v2 shows significant limitations in open environments but is suitable for small-scale, covariate-shifted, and class-balanced tasks. Tree-based models remain the optimal choice for general tabular tasks in open environments. To facilitate future research on open environments challenges, we advocate for open environments tabular benchmarks, multi-metric evaluation, and universal modules to strengthen model robustness. We publicly release our evaluation framework at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/tabpfn-ood-4E65.