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 Statistical Learning


On the Out-of-Distribution Generalization of Self-Supervised Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In this paper, we focus on the out-of-distribution (OOD) generalization of self-supervised learning (SSL). By analyzing the mini-batch construction during the SSL training phase, we first give one plausible explanation for SSL having OOD generalization. Then, from the perspective of data generation and causal inference, we analyze and conclude that SSL learns spurious correlations during the training process, which leads to a reduction in OOD generalization. To address this issue, we propose a post-intervention distribution (PID) grounded in the Structural Causal Model. PID offers a scenario where the spurious variable and label variable is mutually independent. Besides, we demonstrate that if each mini-batch during SSL training satisfies PID, the resulting SSL model can achieve optimal worst-case OOD performance. This motivates us to develop a batch sampling strategy that enforces PID constraints through the learning of a latent variable model. Through theoretical analysis, we demonstrate the identifiability of the latent variable model and validate the effectiveness of the proposed sampling strategy. Experiments conducted on various downstream OOD tasks demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed sampling strategy.


Quantum Feature Optimization for Enhanced Clustering of Blockchain Transaction Data

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Blockchain transaction data exhibits high dimensionality, noise, and intricate feature entanglement, presenting significant challenges for traditional clustering algorithms. In this study, we conduct a comparative analysis of three clustering approaches: (1) Classical K-Means Clustering, applied to pre-processed feature representations; (2) Hybrid Clustering, wherein classical features are enhanced with quantum random features extracted using randomly initialized quantum neural networks (QNNs); and (3) Fully Quantum Clustering, where a QNN is trained in a self-supervised manner leveraging a SwAV-based loss function to optimize the feature space for clustering directly. The proposed experimental framework systematically investigates the impact of quantum circuit depth and the number of learned prototypes, demonstrating that even shallow quantum circuits can effectively extract meaningful non-linear representations, significantly improving clustering performance.


CodeMerge: Codebook-Guided Model Merging for Robust Test-Time Adaptation in Autonomous Driving

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Maintaining robust 3D perception under dynamic and unpredictable test-time conditions remains a critical challenge for autonomous driving systems. Existing test-time adaptation (TTA) methods often fail in high-variance tasks like 3D object detection due to unstable optimization and sharp minima. While recent model merging strategies based on linear mode connectivity (LMC) offer improved stability by interpolating between fine-tuned checkpoints, they are computationally expensive, requiring repeated checkpoint access and multiple forward passes. In this paper, we introduce CodeMerge, a lightweight and scalable model merging framework that bypasses these limitations by operating in a compact latent space. Instead of loading full models, CodeMerge represents each checkpoint with a low-dimensional fingerprint derived from the source model's penultimate features and constructs a key-value codebook. We compute merging coefficients using ridge leverage scores on these fingerprints, enabling efficient model composition without compromising adaptation quality. Our method achieves strong performance across challenging benchmarks, improving end-to-end 3D detection 14.9% NDS on nuScenes-C and LiDAR-based detection by over 7.6% mAP on nuScenes-to-KITTI, while benefiting downstream tasks such as online mapping, motion prediction and planning even without training. Code and pretrained models are released in the supplementary material.


University of Indonesia at SemEval-2025 Task 11: Evaluating State-of-the-Art Encoders for Multi-Label Emotion Detection

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper presents our approach for SemEval 2025 Task 11 Track A, focusing on multilabel emotion classification across 28 languages. We explore two main strategies: fully fine-tuning transformer models and classifier-only training, evaluating different settings such as fine-tuning strategies, model architectures, loss functions, encoders, and classifiers. Our findings suggest that training a classifier on top of prompt-based encoders such as mE5 and BGE yields significantly better results than fully fine-tuning XLMR and mBERT. Our best-performing model on the final leaderboard is an ensemble combining multiple BGE models, where CatBoost serves as the classifier, with different configurations. This ensemble achieves an average F1-macro score of 56.58 across all languages.


Only Large Weights (And Not Skip Connections) Can Prevent the Perils of Rank Collapse

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Attention mechanisms lie at the heart of modern large language models (LLMs). Straightforward algorithms for forward and backward (gradient) computation take quadratic time, and a line of work initiated by [Alman and Song NeurIPS 2023] and [Alman and Song NeurIPS 2024] has shown that quadratic time is necessary unless the model weights are small, in which case almost linear time algorithms are possible. In this paper, we show that large weights are necessary to avoid a strong preclusion to representational strength we call layer collapse, which means that the entire network can be approximated well by a network with only a single layer. Thus, the quadratic running time of attention is unavoidable for expressive transformers. The notion of layer collapse that we introduce is a variant on the notion of rank collapse from the work of [Dong, Cordonnier, and Loukas ICML 2021]. They showed that in Self Attention Networks with small weights and with skip connections, rank collapse must occur. This is typically interpreted as justifying the necessity of skip connections in expressive networks. However, our result shows that even with skip connections, if the weights are small, then layer collapse still occurs. Thus, only large weights, and not skip connections, can prevent these representational weaknesses.


Enhancing Federated Survival Analysis through Peer-Driven Client Reputation in Healthcare

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Federated Learning (FL) holds great promise for digital health by enabling collaborative model training without compromising patient data privacy. However, heterogeneity across institutions, lack of sustained reputation, and unreliable contributions remain major challenges. In this paper, we propose a robust, peer-driven reputation mechanism for federated healthcare that employs a hybrid communication model to integrate decentralized peer feedback with clustering-based noise handling to enhance model aggregation. Crucially, our approach decouples the federated aggregation and reputation mechanisms by applying differential privacy to client-side model updates before sharing them for peer evaluation. This ensures sensitive information remains protected during reputation computation, while unaltered updates are sent to the server for global model training. Using the Cox Proportional Hazards model for survival analysis across multiple federated nodes, our framework addresses both data heterogeneity and reputation deficit by dynamically adjusting trust scores based on local performance improvements measured via the concordance index. Experimental evaluations on both synthetic datasets and the SEER dataset demonstrate that our method consistently achieves high and stable C-index values, effectively down-weighing noisy client updates and outperforming FL methods that lack a reputation system.


Interpretable Machine Learning for Macro Alpha: A News Sentiment Case Study

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This study introduces an interpretable machine learning (ML) framework to extract macroeconomic alpha from global news sentiment. We process the Global Database of Events, Language, and Tone (GDELT) Project's worldwide news feed using FinBERT -- a Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers (BERT) based model pretrained on finance-specific language -- to construct daily sentiment indices incorporating mean tone, dispersion, and event impact. These indices drive an XGBoost classifier, benchmarked against logistic regression, to predict next-day returns for EUR/USD, USD/JPY, and 10-year U.S. Treasury futures (ZN). Rigorous out-of-sample (OOS) backtesting (5-fold expanding-window cross-validation, OOS period: c. 2017-April 2025) demonstrates exceptional, cost-adjusted performance for the XGBoost strategy: Sharpe ratios achieve 5.87 (EUR/USD), 4.65 (USD/JPY), and 4.65 (Treasuries), with respective compound annual growth rates (CAGRs) exceeding 50% in Foreign Exchange (FX) and 22% in bonds. Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) affirm that sentiment dispersion and article impact are key predictive features. Our findings establish that integrating domain-specific Natural Language Processing (NLP) with interpretable ML offers a potent and explainable source of macro alpha.


Towards Trustworthy Keylogger detection: A Comprehensive Analysis of Ensemble Techniques and Feature Selections through Explainable AI

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Keylogger detection involves monitoring for unusual system behaviors such as delays between typing and character display, analyzing network traffic patterns for data exfiltration. In this study, we provide a comprehensive analysis for keylogger detection with traditional machine learning models - SVC, Random Forest, Decision Tree, XGBoost, AdaBoost, Logistic Regression and Naive Bayes and advanced ensemble methods including Stacking, Blending and Voting. Moreover, feature selection approaches such as Information gain, Lasso L1 and Fisher Score are thoroughly assessed to improve predictive performance and lower computational complexity. The Keylogger Detection dataset from publicly available Kaggle website is used in this project. In addition to accuracy-based classification, this study implements the approach for model interpretation using Explainable AI (XAI) techniques namely SHAP (Global) and LIME (Local) to deliver finer explanations for how much each feature contributes in assisting or hindering the detection process. To evaluate the models result, we have used AUC score, sensitivity, Specificity, Accuracy and F1 score. The best performance was achieved by AdaBoost with 99.76% accuracy, F1 score of 0.99, 100% precision, 98.6% recall, 1.0 specificity and 0.99 of AUC that is near-perfect classification with Fisher Score.


SynEVO: A neuro-inspired spatiotemporal evolutional framework for cross-domain adaptation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Discovering regularities from spatiotemporal systems can benefit various scientific and social planning. Current spatiotemporal learners usually train an independent model from a specific source data that leads to limited transferability among sources, where even correlated tasks requires new design and training. The key towards increasing cross-domain knowledge is to enable collective intelligence and model evolution. In this paper, inspired by neuroscience theories, we theoretically derive the increased information boundary via learning cross-domain collective intelligence and propose a Synaptic EVOlutional spatiotemporal network, SynEVO, where SynEVO breaks the model independence and enables cross-domain knowledge to be shared and aggregated. Specifically, we first re-order the sample groups to imitate the human curriculum learning, and devise two complementary learners, elastic common container and task-independent extractor to allow model growth and task-wise commonality and personality disentanglement. Then an adaptive dynamic coupler with a new difference metric determines whether the new sample group should be incorporated into common container to achieve model evolution under various domains. Experiments show that SynEVO improves the generalization capacity by at most 42% under cross-domain scenarios and SynEVO provides a paradigm of NeuroAI for knowledge transfer and adaptation.


Ensembling Sparse Autoencoders

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Sparse autoencoders (SAEs) are used to decompose neural network activations into human-interpretable features. Typically, features learned by a single SAE are used for downstream applications. However, it has recently been shown that SAEs trained with different initial weights can learn different features, demonstrating that a single SAE captures only a limited subset of features that can be extracted from the activation space. Motivated by this limitation, we propose to ensemble multiple SAEs through naive bagging and boosting. Specifically, SAEs trained with different weight initializations are ensembled in naive bagging, whereas SAEs sequentially trained to minimize the residual error are ensembled in boosting. We evaluate our ensemble approaches with three settings of language models and SAE architectures. Our empirical results demonstrate that ensembling SAEs can improve the reconstruction of language model activations, diversity of features, and SAE stability. Furthermore, ensembling SAEs performs better than applying a single SAE on downstream tasks such as concept detection and spurious correlation removal, showing improved practical utility.