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 Statistical Learning


The Closeness of In-Context Learning and Weight Shifting for Softmax Regression

Neural Information Processing Systems

Large language models (LLMs) are known for their exceptional performance in natural language processing, making them highly effective in many human life-related tasks. The attention mechanism in the Transformer architecture is a critical component of LLMs, as it allows the model to selectively focus on specific input parts. The softmax unit, which is a key part of the attention mechanism, normalizes the attention scores. Hence, the performance of LLMs in various NLP tasks depends significantly on the crucial role played by the attention mechanism with the softmax unit.In-context learning is one of the celebrated abilities of recent LLMs. Without further parameter updates, Transformers can learn to predict based on few in-context examples.


Robust Gaussian Processes via Relevance Pursuit

Neural Information Processing Systems

Gaussian processes (GPs) are non-parametric probabilistic regression models that are popular due to their flexibility, data efficiency, and well-calibrated uncertainty estimates. However, standard GP models assume homoskedastic Gaussian noise, while many real-world applications are subject to non-Gaussian corruptions. Variants of GPs that are more robust to alternative noise models have been proposed, and entail significant trade-offs between accuracy and robustness, and between computational requirements and theoretical guarantees. In this work, we propose and study a GP model that achieves robustness against sparse outliers by inferring data-point-specific noise levels with a sequential selection procedure maximizing the log marginal likelihood that we refer to as relevance pursuit. We show, surprisingly, that the model can be parameterized such that the associated log marginal likelihood is strongly concave in the data-point-specific noise variances, a property rarely found in either robust regression objectives or GP marginal likelihoods.


Scaling Laws in Linear Regression: Compute, Parameters, and Data

Neural Information Processing Systems

Empirically, large-scale deep learning models often satisfy a neural scaling law: the test error of the trained model improves polynomially as the model size and data size grow. However, conventional wisdom suggests the test error consists of approximation, bias, and variance errors, where the variance error increases with model size. This disagrees with the general form of neural scaling laws, which predict that increasing model size monotonically improves performance.We study the theory of scaling laws in an infinite dimensional linear regression setup. Specifically, we consider a model with M parameters as a linear function of sketched covariates. The model is trained by one-pass stochastic gradient descent (SGD) using N data. Assuming the optimal parameter satisfies a Gaussian prior and the data covariance matrix has a power-law spectrum of degree a 1, we show that the reducible part of the test error is \Theta(M {-(a-1)} N {-(a-1)/a}) .


RMLR: Extending Multinomial Logistic Regression into General Geometries

Neural Information Processing Systems

Riemannian neural networks, which extend deep learning techniques to Riemannian spaces, have gained significant attention in machine learning. To better classify the manifold-valued features, researchers have started extending Euclidean multinomial logistic regression (MLR) into Riemannian manifolds. However, existing approaches suffer from limited applicability due to their strong reliance on specific geometric properties. This paper proposes a framework for designing Riemannian MLR over general geometries, referred to as RMLR. Our framework only requires minimal geometric properties, thus exhibiting broad applicability and enabling its use with a wide range of geometries. On the SPD manifold, we develop five families of SPD MLRs under five types of power-deformed metrics.


Efficient hierarchical Bayesian inference for spatio-temporal regression models in neuroimaging

Neural Information Processing Systems

Several problems in neuroimaging and beyond require inference on the parameters of multi-task sparse hierarchical regression models. Examples include M/EEG inverse problems, neural encoding models for task-based fMRI analyses, and climate science. In these domains, both the model parameters to be inferred and the measurement noise may exhibit a complex spatio-temporal structure. Existing work either neglects the temporal structure or leads to computationally demanding inference schemes. Overcoming these limitations, we devise a novel flexible hierarchical Bayesian framework within which the spatio-temporal dynamics of model parameters and noise are modeled to have Kronecker product covariance structure.


Towards Unsupervised Model Selection for Domain Adaptive Object Detection

Neural Information Processing Systems

Evaluating the performance of deep models in new scenarios has drawn increasing attention in recent years due to the wide application of deep learning techniques in various fields. However, while it is possible to collect data from new scenarios, the annotations are not always available. Existing Domain Adaptive Object Detection (DAOD) works usually report their performance by selecting the best model on the validation set or even the test set of the target domain, which is highly impractical in real-world applications. In this paper, we propose a novel unsupervised model selection approach for domain adaptive object detection, which is able to select almost the optimal model for the target domain without using any target labels. Our approach is based on the flat minima principle, i.e., models located in the flat minima region in the parameter space usually exhibit excellent generalization ability.


Robust, Accurate Stochastic Optimization for Variational Inference

Neural Information Processing Systems

We examine the accuracy of black box variational posterior approximations for parametric models in a probabilistic programming context. The performance of these approximations depends on (1) how well the variational family approximates the true posterior distribution, (2) the choice of divergence, and (3) the optimization of the variational objective. We show that even when the true variational family is used, high-dimensional posteriors can be very poorly approximated using common stochastic gradient descent (SGD) optimizers. Motivated by recent theory, we propose a simple and parallel way to improve SGD estimates for variational inference. The approach is theoretically motivated and comes with a diagnostic for convergence and a novel stopping rule, which is robust to noisy objective functions evaluations.


Single-Loop Stochastic Algorithms for Difference of Max-Structured Weakly Convex Functions

Neural Information Processing Systems

In this paper, we study a class of non-smooth non-convex problems in the form of \min_{x}[\max_{y\in\mathcal Y}\phi(x, y) - \max_{z\in\mathcal Z}\psi(x, z)], where both \Phi(x) \max_{y\in\mathcal Y}\phi(x, y) and \Psi(x) \max_{z\in\mathcal Z}\psi(x, z) are weakly convex functions, and \phi(x, y), \psi(x, z) are strongly concave functions in terms of y and z, respectively. It covers two families of problems that have been studied but are missing single-loop stochastic algorithms, i.e., difference of weakly convex functions and weakly convex strongly-concave min-max problems. We propose a stochastic Moreau envelope approximate gradient method dubbed SMAG, the first single-loop algorithm for solving these problems, and provide a state-of-the-art non-asymptotic convergence rate. The key idea of the design is to compute an approximate gradient of the Moreau envelopes of \Phi, \Psi using only one step of stochastic gradient update of the primal and dual variables. Empirically, we conduct experiments on positive-unlabeled (PU) learning and partial area under ROC curve (pAUC) optimization with an adversarial fairness regularizer to validate the effectiveness of our proposed algorithms.


Large Pre-trained time series models for cross-domain Time series analysis tasks

Neural Information Processing Systems

Large pre-trained models have been vital in recent advancements in domains like language and vision, making model training for individual downstream tasks more efficient and provide superior performance. However, tackling time-series analysis tasks usually involves designing and training a separate model from scratch leveraging training data and domain expertise specific to the task. We tackle a significant challenge for pre-training a foundational time-series model from multi-domain time-series datasets: extracting semantically useful tokenized inputs to the model across heterogeneous time-series from different domains. We propose Large Pre-trained Time-series Models (LPTM) that introduces a novel method of adaptive segmentation that automatically identifies optimal dataset-specific segmentation strategy during pre-training. This enables LPTM to perform similar to or better than domain-specific state-of-art model when fine-tuned to different downstream time-series analysis tasks and under zero-shot settings. LPTM achieves superior forecasting and time-series classification results taking up to 40% less data and 50% less training time compared to state-of-art baselines.


Maximum Entropy Reinforcement Learning via Energy-Based Normalizing Flow

Neural Information Processing Systems

Existing Maximum-Entropy (MaxEnt) Reinforcement Learning (RL) methods for continuous action spaces are typically formulated based on actor-critic frameworks and optimized through alternating steps of policy evaluation and policy improvement. In the policy evaluation steps, the critic is updated to capture the soft Q-function. In the policy improvement steps, the actor is adjusted in accordance with the updated soft Q-function. In this paper, we introduce a new MaxEnt RL framework modeled using Energy-Based Normalizing Flows (EBFlow). Our method enables the calculation of the soft value function used in the policy evaluation target without Monte Carlo approximation.