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 Statistical Learning


Understanding Model Selection for Learning in Strategic Environments

Neural Information Processing Systems

The deployment of ever-larger machine learning models reflects a growing consensus that the more expressive the model class one optimizes over--and the more data one has access to--the more one can improve performance. As models get deployed in a variety of real-world scenarios, they inevitably face strategic environments. In this work, we consider the natural question of how the interplay of models and strategic interactions affects the relationship between performance at equilibrium and the expressivity of model classes. We find that strategic interactions can break the conventional view--meaning that performance does not necessarily monotonically improve as model classes get larger or more expressive (even with infinite data). We show the implications of this result in several contexts including strategic regression, strategic classification, and multi-agent reinforcement learning.


In-Context Learning with Transformers: Softmax Attention Adapts to Function Lipschitzness

Neural Information Processing Systems

A striking property of transformers is their ability to perform in-context learning (ICL), a machine learning framework in which the learner is presented with a novel context during inference implicitly through some data, and tasked with making a prediction in that context. As such, that learner must adapt to the context without additional training. We explore the role of softmax attention in an ICL setting where each context encodes a regression task. We show that an attention unit learns a window that it uses to implement a nearest-neighbors predictor adapted to the landscape of the pretraining tasks. Specifically, we show that this window widens with decreasing Lipschitzness and increasing label noise in the pretraining tasks.


Unraveling the Gradient Descent Dynamics of Transformers

Neural Information Processing Systems

While the Transformer architecture has achieved remarkable success across various domains, a thorough theoretical foundation explaining its optimization dynamics is yet to be fully developed. In this study, we aim to bridge this understanding gap by answering the following two core questions: (1) Which types of Transformer architectures allow Gradient Descent (GD) to achieve guaranteed convergence? By analyzing the loss landscape of a single Transformer layer using Softmax and Gaussian attention kernels, our work provides concrete answers to these questions. Our findings demonstrate that, with appropriate weight initialization, GD can train a Transformer model (with either kernel type) to achieve a global optimal solution, especially when the input embedding dimension is large. Nonetheless, certain scenarios highlight potential pitfalls: training a Transformer using the Softmax attention kernel may sometimes lead to suboptimal local solutions.


Multi-scale Consistency for Robust 3D Registration via Hierarchical Sinkhorn Tree

Neural Information Processing Systems

We study the problem of retrieving accurate correspondence through multi-scale consistency (MSC) for robust point cloud registration. Existing works in a coarse-to-fine manner either suffer from severe noisy correspondences caused by unreliable coarse matching or struggle to form outlier-free coarse-level correspondence sets. To tackle this, we present Hierarchical Sinkhorn Tree (HST), a pruned tree structure designed to hierarchically measure the local consistency of each coarse correspondence across multiple feature scales, thereby filtering out the local dissimilar ones. In this way, we convert the modeling of MSC for each correspondence into a BFS traversal with pruning of a K-ary tree rooted at the superpoint, with its K nearest neighbors in the feature pyramid serving as child nodes. To achieve efficient pruning and accurate vicinity characterization, we further propose a novel overlap-aware Sinkhorn Distance, which retains only the most likely overlapping points for local measurement and next level exploration.


DeTrack: In-model Latent Denoising Learning for Visual Object Tracking

Neural Information Processing Systems

Previous visual object tracking methods employ image-feature regression models or coordinate autoregression models for bounding box prediction. Image-feature regression methods heavily depend on matching results and do not utilize positional prior, while the autoregressive approach can only be trained using bounding boxes available in the training set, potentially resulting in suboptimal performance during testing with unseen data. Inspired by the diffusion model, denoising learning enhances the model's robustness to unseen data. Therefore, We introduce noise to bounding boxes, generating noisy boxes for training, thus enhancing model robustness on testing data. We propose a new paradigm to formulate the visual object tracking problem as a denoising learning process.


Towards a Theoretical Understanding of the 'Reversal Curse' via Training Dynamics

Neural Information Processing Systems

Auto-regressive large language models (LLMs) show impressive capacities to solve many complex reasoning tasks while struggling with some simple logical reasoning tasks such as inverse search: when trained on '' A \to B '' (e.g., *Tom is the parent of John*), LLM fails to directly conclude '' B \gets A '' (e.g., *John is the child of Tom*) during inference even if the two sentences are semantically identical, which is known as the ''reversal curse''. In this paper, we theoretically analyze the reversal curse via the training dynamics of (stochastic) gradient descent for two auto-regressive models: (1) a bilinear model that can be viewed as a simplification of a one-layer transformer; (2) one-layer transformers under certain assumptions. Our analysis reveals that for both models, the reversal curse is a consequence of the (effective) model weights *asymmetry*, i.e., the increase of weights from a token A to token B during training does not necessarily cause the increase of the weights from B to A, which is caused by the training dynamics under certain choice of loss function and the optimization space of model parameters. Moreover, our analysis can be naturally applied to other logical reasoning tasks such as chain-of-thought (COT), which provides a new perspective different from previous work that focuses on expressivity. Finally, we conduct experiments to validate our theory on multi-layer transformers under different settings.


Sourcerer: Sample-based Maximum Entropy Source Distribution Estimation

Neural Information Processing Systems

Scientific modeling applications often require estimating a distribution of parameters consistent with a dataset of observations - an inference task also known as source distribution estimation. This problem can be ill-posed, however, since many different source distributions might produce the same distribution of data-consistent simulations. To make a principled choice among many equally valid sources, we propose an approach which targets the maximum entropy distribution, i.e., prioritizes retaining as much uncertainty as possible. Our method is purely sample-based - leveraging the Sliced-Wasserstein distance to measure the discrepancy between the dataset and simulations - and thus suitable for simulators with intractable likelihoods. We benchmark our method on several tasks, and show that it can recover source distributions with substantially higher entropy than recent source estimation methods, without sacrificing the fidelity of the simulations.


Mixtape: Breaking the Softmax Bottleneck Efficiently

Neural Information Processing Systems

The softmax bottleneck has been shown to limit the expressiveness of neural lan- guage models. Mixture of Softmaxes (MoS) is an effective approach to address such a theoretical limitation, but are expensive compared to softmax in terms of both memory and time. We propose Mixtape, an output layer that breaks the softmax bottleneck more efficiently with three novel techniques--logit space vector gating, sigmoid tree decomposition, and gate sharing. On four benchmarks including language modeling and machine translation, the Mixtape layer substantially improves the efficiency over the MoS layer by 3.5x to 10.5x while obtaining similar performance. A network equipped with Mixtape is only 20% to 34% slower than a softmax-based network with 10-30K vocabulary sizes, and outperforms softmax in perplexity and translation quality.


Linear Regression using Heterogeneous Data Batches

Neural Information Processing Systems

In many learning applications, data are collected from multiple sources, each providing a \emph{batch} of samples that by itself is insufficient to learn its input-output relationship. A common approach assumes that the sources fall in one of several unknown subgroups, each with an unknown input distribution and input-output relationship. We consider one of this setup's most fundamental and important manifestations where the output is a noisy linear combination of the inputs, and there are k subgroups, each with its own regression vector. Prior work [KSS 20] showed that with abundant small-batches, the regression vectors can be learned with only few, \tilde\Omega( k {3/2}), batches of medium-size with \tilde\Omega(\sqrt k) samples each. However, the paper requires that the input distribution for all k subgroups be isotropic Gaussian, and states that removing this assumption is an interesting and challenging problem".


In-Context Learning with Representations: Contextual Generalization of Trained Transformers

Neural Information Processing Systems

In-context learning (ICL) refers to a remarkable capability of pretrained large language models, which can learn a new task given a few examples during inference. However, theoretical understanding of ICL is largely under-explored, particularly whether transformers can be trained to generalize to unseen examples in a prompt, which will require the model to acquire contextual knowledge of the prompt for generalization. This paper investigates the training dynamics of transformers by gradient descent through the lens of non-linear regression tasks. The contextual generalization here can be attained via learning the template function for each task in-context, where all template functions lie in a linear space with m basis functions. We analyze the training dynamics of one-layer multi-head transformers to {in-contextly} predict unlabeled inputs given partially labeled prompts, where the labels contain Gaussian noise and the number of examples in each prompt are not sufficient to determine the template.