The COVID-19 pandemic response relied heavily on statistical and machine learning models to predict key outcomes such as case prevalence and fatality rates. These predictions were instrumental in enabling timely public health interventions that helped break transmission cycles. While most existing models are grounded in traditional epidemiological data, the potential of alternative datasets, such as those derived from genomic information and human behavior, remains underexplored. In the current study, we investigated the usefulness of diverse modalities of feature sets in predicting case surges. Our results highlight the relative effectiveness of biological (e.g., mutations), public health (e.g., case counts, policy interventions) and human behavioral features (e.g., mobility and social media conversations) in predicting country-level case surges. Importantly, we uncover considerable heterogeneity in predictive performance across countries and feature modalities, suggesting that surge prediction models may need to be tailored to specific national contexts and pandemic phases. Overall, our work highlights the value of integrating alternative data sources into existing disease surveillance frameworks to enhance the prediction of pandemic dynamics.

Bayesian models based on Gaussian processes (GPs) offer a flexible framework to predict spatially distributed variables with uncertainty. But the use of non-stationary priors, often necessary for capturing complex spatial patterns, makes sampling from the predictive posterior distribution (PPD) computationally intractable. In this paper, we propose a two-step approach based on diffusion generative models (DGMs) to mimic PPDs associated with non-stationary GP priors: we replace the GP prior by a DGM surrogate, and leverage recent advances on training-free guidance algorithms for DGMs to sample from the desired posterior distribution. We apply our approach to a rich non-stationary GP prior from which exact posterior sampling is untractable and validate that the issuing distributions are close to their GP counterpart using several statistical metrics. We also demonstrate how one can fine-tune the trained DGMs to target specific parts of the GP prior. Finally we apply the proposed approach to solve inverse problems arising in environmental sciences, thus yielding state-of-the-art predictions.

We propose a novel method, termed the M-learner, for estimating heterogeneous indirect and total treatment effects and identifying relevant subgroups within a mediation framework. The procedure comprises four key steps. First, we compute individual-level conditional average indirect/total treatment effect Second, we construct a distance matrix based on pairwise differences. Third, we apply tSNE to project this matrix into a low-dimensional Euclidean space, followed by K-means clustering to identify subgroup structures. Finally, we calibrate and refine the clusters using a threshold-based procedure to determine the optimal configuration. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first approach specifically designed to capture treatment effect heterogeneity in the presence of mediation. Experimental results validate the robustness and effectiveness of the proposed framework. Application to the real-world Jobs II dataset highlights the broad adaptability and potential applicability of our method.Code is available at https: //anonymous.4open.science/r/M-learner-C4BB.

Recent advances in object detectors have led to their adoption for industrial uses. However, their deployment in critical applications is hindered by the inherent lack of reliability of neural networks and the complex structure of object detection models. To address these challenges, we turn to Conformal Prediction, a post-hoc procedure which offers statistical guarantees that are valid for any dataset size, without requiring prior knowledge on the model or data distribution. Our contribution is manifold: first, we formally define the problem of Conformal Object Detection (COD) and introduce a novel method, Sequential Conformal Risk Control (SeqCRC), that extends the statistical guarantees of Conformal Risk Control (CRC) to two sequential tasks with two parameters, as required in the COD setting. Then, we propose loss functions and prediction sets suited to applying CRC to different applications and certification requirements. Finally, we present a conformal toolkit, enabling replication and further exploration of our methods. Using this toolkit, we perform extensive experiments, yielding a benchmark that validates the investigated methods and emphasizes trade-offs and other practical consequences.

Multi-task learning (MTL) has become an essential machine learning tool for addressing multiple learning tasks simultaneously and has been effectively applied across fields such as healthcare, marketing, and biomedical research. However, to enable efficient information sharing across tasks, it is crucial to leverage both shared and heterogeneous information. Despite extensive research on MTL, various forms of heterogeneity, including distribution and posterior heterogeneity, present significant challenges. Existing methods often fail to address these forms of heterogeneity within a unified framework. In this paper, we propose a dual-encoder framework to construct a heterogeneous latent factor space for each task, incorporating a task-shared encoder to capture common information across tasks and a task-specific encoder to preserve unique task characteristics. Additionally, we explore the intrinsic similarity structure of the coefficients corresponding to learned latent factors, allowing for adaptive integration across tasks to manage posterior heterogeneity. We introduce a unified algorithm that alternately learns the task-specific and task-shared encoders and coefficients. In theory, we investigate the excess risk bound for the proposed MTL method using local Rademacher complexity and apply it to a new but related task. Through simulation studies, we demonstrate that the proposed method outperforms existing data integration methods across various settings. Furthermore, the proposed method achieves superior predictive performance for time to tumor doubling across five distinct cancer types in PDX data.

Automating primary stress identification has been an active research field due to the role of stress in encoding meaning and aiding speech comprehension. Previous studies relied mainly on traditional acoustic features and English datasets. In this paper, we investigate the approach of fine-tuning a pre-trained transformer model with an audio frame classification head. Our experiments use a new Croatian training dataset, with test sets in Croatian, Serbian, the Chakavian dialect, and Slovenian. By comparing an SVM classifier using traditional acoustic features with the fine-tuned speech transformer, we demonstrate the transformer's superiority across the board, achieving near-perfect results for Croatian and Serbian, with a 10-point performance drop for the more distant Chakavian and Slovenian. Finally, we show that only a few hundred multi-syllabic training words suffice for strong performance. We release our datasets and model under permissive licenses.

Graph-level regression underpins many real-world applications, yet public benchmarks remain heavily skewed toward molecular graphs and citation networks. This limited diversity hinders progress on models that must generalize across both homogeneous and heterogeneous graph structures. We introduce RelSC, a new graph-regression dataset built from program graphs that combine syntactic and semantic information extracted from source code. Each graph is labelled with the execution-time cost of the corresponding program, providing a continuous target variable that differs markedly from those found in existing benchmarks. RelSC is released in two complementary variants. RelSC-H supplies rich node features under a single (homogeneous) edge type, while RelSC-M preserves the original multi-relational structure, connecting nodes through multiple edge types that encode distinct semantic relationships. Together, these variants let researchers probe how representation choice influences model behaviour. We evaluate a diverse set of graph neural network architectures on both variants of RelSC. The results reveal consistent performance differences between the homogeneous and multi-relational settings, emphasising the importance of structural representation. These findings demonstrate RelSC's value as a challenging and versatile benchmark for advancing graph regression methods.

Deep neural networks have been increasingly used in safety-critical applications such as medical diagnosis and autonomous driving. However, many studies suggest that they are prone to being poorly calibrated and have a propensity for overconfidence, which may have disastrous consequences. In this paper, unlike standard training such as stochastic gradient descent, we show that the recently proposed sharpness-aware minimization (SAM) counteracts this tendency towards overconfidence. The theoretical analysis suggests that SAM allows us to learn models that are already well-calibrated by implicitly maximizing the entropy of the predictive distribution. Inspired by this finding, we further propose a variant of SAM, coined as CSAM, to ameliorate model calibration. Extensive experiments on various datasets, including ImageNet-1K, demonstrate the benefits of SAM in reducing calibration error. Meanwhile, CSAM performs even better than SAM and consistently achieves lower calibration error than other approaches

The rapid evolution of social media has generated an overwhelming volume of user-generated content, conveying implicit opinions and contributing to the spread of misinformation. The method aims to enhance the detection of stance where misinformation can polarize user opinions. Stance detection has emerged as a crucial approach to effectively analyze underlying biases in shared information and combating misinformation. This paper proposes a novel method for \textbf{S}tance \textbf{P}rediction through a \textbf{L}abel-fused dual cross-\textbf{A}ttentive \textbf{E}motion-aware neural \textbf{Net}work (SPLAENet) in misinformative social media user-generated content. The proposed method employs a dual cross-attention mechanism and a hierarchical attention network to capture inter and intra-relationships by focusing on the relevant parts of source text in the context of reply text and vice versa. We incorporate emotions to effectively distinguish between different stance categories by leveraging the emotional alignment or divergence between the texts. We also employ label fusion that uses distance-metric learning to align extracted features with stance labels, improving the method's ability to accurately distinguish between stances. Extensive experiments demonstrate the significant improvements achieved by SPLAENet over existing state-of-the-art methods. SPLAENet demonstrates an average gain of 8.92\% in accuracy and 17.36\% in F1-score on the RumourEval dataset. On the SemEval dataset, it achieves average gains of 7.02\% in accuracy and 10.92\% in F1-score. On the P-stance dataset, it demonstrates average gains of 10.03\% in accuracy and 11.18\% in F1-score. These results validate the effectiveness of the proposed method for stance detection in the context of misinformative social media content.

Irregular Multivariate Time Series (IMTS) forecasting is challenging due to the unaligned nature of multi-channel signals and the prevalence of extensive missing data. Existing methods struggle to capture reliable temporal patterns from such data due to significant missing values. While pre-trained foundation models show potential for addressing these challenges, they are typically designed for Regularly Sampled Time Series (RTS). Motivated by the visual Mask AutoEncoder's (MAE) powerful capability for modeling sparse multi-channel information and its success in RTS forecasting, we propose VIMTS, a framework adapting Visual MAE for IMTS forecasting. To mitigate the effect of missing values, VIMTS first processes IMTS along the timeline into feature patches at equal intervals. These patches are then complemented using learned cross-channel dependencies. Then it leverages visual MAE's capability in handling sparse multichannel data for patch reconstruction, followed by a coarse-to-fine technique to generate precise predictions from focused contexts. In addition, we integrate self-supervised learning for improved IMTS modeling by adapting the visual MAE to IMTS data. Extensive experiments demonstrate VIMTS's superior performance and few-shot capability, advancing the application of visual foundation models in more general time series tasks. Our code is available at https://github.com/WHU-HZY/VIMTS.