Statistical Learning
What does making money have to do with crime?: A dive into the National Crime Victimization survey
In this short article, I leverage the National Crime Victimization Survey from 1992 to 2022 to examine how income, education, employment, and key demographic factors shape the type of crime victims experience (violent vs property). Using balanced classification splits and logistic regression models evaluated by F1-score, there is an isolation of the socioeconomic drivers of victimization "Group A" models and then an introduction of demographic factors such as age, gender, race, and marital status controls called "Group B" models. The results consistently proves that higher income and education lower the odds of violent relative to property crime, while men younger individuals and racial minorities face disproportionately higher violentcrime risks. On the geographic spectrum, the suburban models achieve the strongest predictive performance with an accuracy of 0.607 and F1 of 0.590, urban areas benefit from adding education and employment predictors and crime in rural areas are still unpredictable using these current factors. The patterns found in this study shows the need for specific interventions like educational investments in metropolitan settings economic support in rural communities and demographicaware prevention strategies.
Enhancing Convergence, Privacy and Fairness for Wireless Personalized Federated Learning: Quantization-Assisted Min-Max Fair Scheduling
Zhao, Xiyu, Cui, Qimei, Du, Ziqiang, Li, Weicai, Yu, Xi, Ni, Wei, Zhang, Ji, Tao, Xiaofeng, Zhang, Ping
--Personalized federated learning (PFL) offers a solution to balancing personalization and generalization by conducting federated learning (FL) to guide personalized learning (PL). Little attention has been given to wireless PFL (WPFL), where privacy concerns arise. Performance fairness of PL models is another challenge resulting from communication bottlenecks in WPFL. This paper exploits quantization errors to enhance the privacy of WPFL and proposes a novel quantization-assisted Gaussian differential privacy (DP) mechanism. We analyze the convergence upper bounds of individual PL models by considering the impact of the mechanism (i.e., quantization errors and Gaussian DP noises) and imperfect communication channels on the FL of WPFL. This is achieved by revealing the nested structure of this problem to decouple it into subproblems solved sequentially for the client selection, channel allocation, and power control, and for the learning rates and PL-FL weighting coefficients. Experiments validate our analysis and demonstrate that our approach substantially outperforms alternative scheduling strategies by 87. Personalized federated learning (PFL) has been recently proposed to account for both generalization and personal-ization. It can strike a balance between personalized models and the global model, e.g., via a global-regularized multi-task framework [1]. Manuscript received 28 October 2024; revised 18 December 2024; accepted 22 April 2025. This work was supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China under Grant No. 2020YFB1806804, and the Beijing Natural Science Foundation Program under Grand No.L232002.
$K$-MSHC: Unmasking Minimally Sufficient Head Circuits in Large Language Models with Experiments on Syntactic Classification Tasks
Chowdhary, Pratim, Chin, Peter, Chakrabarty, Deepernab
Understanding which neural components drive specific capabilities in mid-sized language models ($\leq$10B parameters) remains a key challenge. We introduce the $(\bm{K}, ฮต)$-Minimum Sufficient Head Circuit ($K$-MSHC), a methodology to identify minimal sets of attention heads crucial for classification tasks as well as Search-K-MSHC, an efficient algorithm for discovering these circuits. Applying our Search-K-MSHC algorithm to Gemma-9B, we analyze three syntactic task families: grammar acceptability, arithmetic verification, and arithmetic word problems. Our findings reveal distinct task-specific head circuits, with grammar tasks predominantly utilizing early layers, word problems showing pronounced activity in both shallow and deep regions, and arithmetic verification demonstrating a more distributed pattern across the network. We discover non-linear circuit overlap patterns, where different task pairs share computational components at varying levels of importance. While grammar and arithmetic share many "weak" heads, arithmetic and word problems share more consistently critical "strong" heads. Importantly, we find that each task maintains dedicated "super-heads" with minimal cross-task overlap, suggesting that syntactic and numerical competencies emerge from specialized yet partially reusable head circuits.
Mitigating Degree Bias Adaptively with Hard-to-Learn Nodes in Graph Contrastive Learning
Hu, Jingyu, Bo, Hongbo, Hong, Jun, Liu, Xiaowei, Liu, Weiru
Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) often suffer from degree bias in node classification tasks, where prediction performance varies across nodes with different degrees. Several approaches, which adopt Graph Contrastive Learning (GCL), have been proposed to mitigate this bias. However, the limited number of positive pairs and the equal weighting of all positives and negatives in GCL still lead to low-degree nodes acquiring insufficient and noisy information. This paper proposes the Hardness Adaptive Reweighted (HAR) contrastive loss to mitigate degree bias. It adds more positive pairs by leveraging node labels and adaptively weights positive and negative pairs based on their learning hardness. In addition, we develop an experimental framework named SHARP to extend HAR to a broader range of scenarios. Both our theoretical analysis and experiments validate the effectiveness of SHARP. The experimental results across four datasets show that SHARP achieves better performance against baselines at both global and degree levels.
iN2V: Bringing Transductive Node Embeddings to Inductive Graphs
Shallow node embeddings like node2vec (N2V) can be used for nodes without features or to supplement existing features with structure-based information. Embedding methods like N2V are limited in their application on new nodes, which restricts them to the transductive setting where the entire graph, including the test nodes, is available during training. We propose inductive node2vec (iN2V), which combines a post-hoc procedure to compute embeddings for nodes unseen during training and modifications to the original N2V training procedure to prepare the embeddings for this post-hoc procedure. We conduct experiments on several benchmark datasets and demonstrate that iN2V is an effective approach to bringing transductive embeddings to an inductive setting. Using iN2V embeddings improves node classification by 1 point on average, with up to 6 points of improvement depending on the dataset and the number of unseen nodes. Our iN2V is a plug-in approach to create new or enrich existing embeddings. It can also be combined with other embedding methods, making it a versatile approach for inductive node representation learning. Code to reproduce the results is available at https://github.com/Foisunt/iN2V .
Line of Sight: On Linear Representations in VLLMs
Rajaram, Achyuta, Schwettmann, Sarah, Andreas, Jacob, Conmy, Arthur
Language models can be equipped with multimodal capabilities by fine-tuning on embeddings of visual inputs. But how do such multimodal models represent images in their hidden activations? We explore representations of image concepts within LlaVA-Next, a popular open-source VLLM. We find a diverse set of ImageNet classes represented via linearly decodable features in the residual stream. We show that the features are causal by performing targeted edits on the model output. In order to increase the diversity of the studied linear features, we train multimodal Sparse Autoencoders (SAEs), creating a highly interpretable dictionary of text and image features. We find that although model representations across modalities are quite disjoint, they become increasingly shared in deeper layers.
Enhanced Drought Analysis in Bangladesh: A Machine Learning Approach for Severity Classification Using Satellite Data
Paul, Tonmoy, Mati, Mrittika Devi, Islam, Md. Mahmudul
Drought poses a pervasive environmental challenge in Bangladesh, impacting agriculture, socio-economic stability, and food security due to its unique geographic and anthropogenic vulnerabilities. Traditional drought indices, such as the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), often overlook crucial factors like soil moisture and temperature, limiting their resolution. Moreover, current machine learning models applied to drought prediction have been underexplored in the context of Bangladesh, lacking a comprehensive integration of satellite data across multiple districts. To address these gaps, we propose a satellite data-driven machine learning framework to classify drought across 38 districts of Bangladesh. Using unsupervised algorithms like K-means and Bayesian Gaussian Mixture for clustering, followed by classification models such as KNN, Random Forest, Decision Tree, and Naive Bayes, the framework integrates weather data (humidity, soil moisture, temperature) from 2012-2024. This approach successfully classifies drought severity into different levels. However, it shows significant variabilities in drought vulnerabilities across regions which highlights the aptitude of machine learning models in terms of identifying and predicting drought conditions.
FedAPM: Federated Learning via ADMM with Partial Model Personalization
Zhu, Shengkun, Nie, Feiteng, Zeng, Jinshan, Wang, Sheng, Sun, Yuan, Yao, Yuan, Chen, Shangfeng, Xu, Quanqing, Yang, Chuanhui
In federated learning (FL), the assumption that datasets from different devices are independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) often does not hold due to user differences, and the presence of various data modalities across clients makes using a single model impractical. Personalizing certain parts of the model can effectively address these issues by allowing those parts to differ across clients, while the remaining parts serve as a shared model. However, we found that partial model personalization may exacerbate client drift (each client's local model diverges from the shared model), thereby reducing the effectiveness and efficiency of FL algorithms. We propose an FL framework based on the alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM), referred to as FedAPM, to mitigate client drift. We construct the augmented Lagrangian function by incorporating first-order and second-order proximal terms into the objective, with the second-order term providing fixed correction and the first-order term offering compensatory correction between the local and shared models. Our analysis demonstrates that FedAPM, by using explicit estimates of the Lagrange multiplier, is more stable and efficient in terms of convergence compared to other FL frameworks. We establish the global convergence of FedAPM training from arbitrary initial points to a stationary point, achieving three types of rates: constant, linear, and sublinear, under mild assumptions. We conduct experiments using four heterogeneous and multimodal datasets with different metrics to validate the performance of FedAPM. Specifically, FedAPM achieves faster and more accurate convergence, outperforming the SOTA methods with average improvements of 12.3% in test accuracy, 16.4% in F1 score, and 18.0% in AUC while requiring fewer communication rounds.
Noise-Resistant Label Reconstruction Feature Selection for Partial Multi-Label Learning
Gao, Wanfu, Pan, Hanlin, Han, Qingqi, Liu, Kunpeng
The "Curse of dimensionality" is prevalent across various data patterns, which increases the risk of model overfitting and leads to a decline in model classification performance. However, few studies have focused on this issue in Partial Multi-label Learning (PML), where each sample is associated with a set of candidate labels, at least one of which is correct. Existing PML methods addressing this problem are mainly based on the low-rank assumption. However, low-rank assumption is difficult to be satisfied in practical situations and may lead to loss of high-dimensional information. Furthermore, we find that existing methods have poor ability to identify positive labels, which is important in real-world scenarios. In this paper, a PML feature selection method is proposed considering two important characteristics of dataset: label relationship's noise-resistance and label connectivity. Our proposed method utilizes label relationship's noise-resistance to disambiguate labels. Then the learning process is designed through the reformed low-rank assumption. Finally, representative labels are found through label connectivity, and the weight matrix is reconstructed to select features with strong identification ability to these labels. The experimental results on benchmark datasets demonstrate the superiority of the proposed method.
Classifying Dental Care Providers Through Machine Learning with Features Ranking
Al-Batah, Mohammad Subhi, Alzboon, Mowafaq Salem, Alqaraleh, Muhyeeddin, Abu-Arqoub, Mohammed Hasan, Marie, Rashiq Rafiq
This study investigates the application of machine learning (ML) models for classifying dental providers into two categories - standard rendering providers and safety net clinic (SNC) providers - using a 2018 dataset of 24,300 instances with 20 features. The dataset, characterized by high missing values (38.1%), includes service counts (preventive, treatment, exams), delivery systems (FFS, managed care), and beneficiary demographics. Feature ranking methods such as information gain, Gini index, and ANOVA were employed to identify critical predictors, revealing treatment-related metrics (TXMT_USER_CNT, TXMT_SVC_CNT) as top-ranked features. Twelve ML models, including k-Nearest Neighbors (kNN), Decision Trees, Support Vector Machines (SVM), Stochastic Gradient Descent (SGD), Random Forest, Neural Networks, and Gradient Boosting, were evaluated using 10-fold cross-validation. Classification accuracy was tested across incremental feature subsets derived from rankings. The Neural Network achieved the highest accuracy (94.1%) using all 20 features, followed by Gradient Boosting (93.2%) and Random Forest (93.0%). Models showed improved performance as more features were incorporated, with SGD and ensemble methods demonstrating robustness to missing data. Feature ranking highlighted the dominance of treatment service counts and annotation codes in distinguishing provider types, while demographic variables (AGE_GROUP, CALENDAR_YEAR) had minimal impact. The study underscores the importance of feature selection in enhancing model efficiency and accuracy, particularly in imbalanced healthcare datasets. These findings advocate for integrating feature-ranking techniques with advanced ML algorithms to optimize dental provider classification, enabling targeted resource allocation for underserved populations.