Neural Information Processing Systems http://nips.cc/

We introduce and study the problem of calibrating conditional risk, which involves estimating the expected loss of a prediction model conditional on input features. We analyze this problem in both classification and regression settings and show that it is fundamentally equivalent to a standard regression task. For classification settings, we further establish a connection between conditional risk calibration and individual/conditional probability calibration, and develop theoretical insights for the performance metric. This reveals that while conditional risk calibration is related to existing uncertainty quantification problems, it remains a distinct and standalone machine learning problem. Empirically, we validate our theoretical findings and demonstrate the practical implications of conditional risk calibration in the learning to defer (L2D) framework. Our systematic experiments provide both qualitative and quantitative assessments, offering guidance for future research in uncertainty-aware decision-making.

The Gaussian process state space model (GPSSM) is a non-linear dynamical system, where unknown transition and/or measurement mappings are described by GPs. Most research in GPSSMs has focussed on the state estimation problem, i.e., computing a posterior of the latent state given the model. However, the key challenge in GPSSMs has not been satisfactorily addressed yet: system identification, i.e., learning the model. To address this challenge, we impose a structured Gaussian variational posterior distribution over the latent states, which is parameterised by a recognition model in the form of a bi-directional recurrent neural network. Inference with this structure allows us to recover a posterior smoothed over sequences of data. We provide a practical algorithm for efficiently computing a lower bound on the marginal likelihood using the reparameterisation trick. This further allows for the use of arbitrary kernels within the GPSSM. We demonstrate that the learnt GPSSM can efficiently generate plausible future trajectories of the identified system after only observing a small number of episodes from the true system.

Neural Information Processing Systems http://nips.cc/

Spectral clustering and co-clustering are well-known techniques in data analysis, and recent work has extended spectral clustering to square, symmetric tensors and hypermatrices derived from a network. We develop a new tensor spectral co-clustering method that simultaneously clusters the rows, columns, and slices of a nonnegative three-mode tensor and generalizes to tensors with any number of modes. The algorithm is based on a new random walk model which we call the super-spacey random surfer. We show that our method out-performs state-of-the-art co-clustering methods on several synthetic datasets with ground truth clusters and then use the algorithm to analyze several real-world datasets.

Neural Information Processing Systems http://nips.cc/

Neural Information Processing Systems http://nips.cc/

In this paper, we introduce a new image representation based on a multilayer kernel machine. Unlike traditional kernel methods where data representation is decoupled from the prediction task, we learn how to shape the kernel with supervision. We proceed by first proposing improvements of the recently-introduced convolutional kernel networks (CKNs) in the context of unsupervised learning; then, we derive backpropagation rules to take advantage of labeled training data. The resulting model is a new type of convolutional neural network, where optimizing the filters at each layer is equivalent to learning a linear subspace in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS). We show that our method achieves reasonably competitive performance for image classification on some standard "deep learning" datasets such as CIFAR-10 and SVHN, and also for image super-resolution, demonstrating the applicability of our approach to a large variety of image-related tasks.

Concurrent measurements of neural activity at multiple scales, sometimes performed with multimodal techniques, become increasingly important for studying brain function. However, statistical methods for their concurrent analysis are currently lacking. Here we introduce such techniques in a framework based on vine copulas with mixed margins to construct multivariate stochastic models. These models can describe detailed mixed interactions between discrete variables such as neural spike counts, and continuous variables such as local field potentials. We propose efficient methods for likelihood calculation, inference, sampling and mutual information estimation within this framework. We test our methods on simulated data and demonstrate applicability on mixed data generated by a biologically realistic neural network. Our methods hold the promise to considerably improve statistical analysis of neural data recorded simultaneously at different scales.

Neural Information Processing Systems http://nips.cc/