Most of the widely used estimators of the average treatment effect (ATE) in causal inference rely on the assumptions of unconfoundedness and overlap. Unconfoundedness requires that the observed covariates account for all correlations between the outcome and treatment. Overlap requires the existence of randomness in treatment decisions for all individuals. Nevertheless, many types of studies frequently violate unconfoundedness or overlap, for instance, observational studies with deterministic treatment decisions - popularly known as Regression Discontinuity designs - violate overlap. In this paper, we initiate the study of general conditions that enable the identification of the average treatment effect, extending beyond unconfoundedness and overlap. In particular, following the paradigm of statistical learning theory, we provide an interpretable condition that is sufficient and necessary for the identification of ATE. Moreover, this condition also characterizes the identification of the average treatment effect on the treated (ATT) and can be used to characterize other treatment effects as well. To illustrate the utility of our condition, we present several well-studied scenarios where our condition is satisfied and, hence, we prove that ATE can be identified in regimes that prior works could not capture. For example, under mild assumptions on the data distributions, this holds for the models proposed by Tan (2006) and Rosenbaum (2002), and the Regression Discontinuity design model introduced by Thistlethwaite and Campbell (1960). For each of these scenarios, we also show that, under natural additional assumptions, ATE can be estimated from finite samples. We believe these findings open new avenues for bridging learning-theoretic insights and causal inference methodologies, particularly in observational studies with complex treatment mechanisms.

We study the problem of online regression with the unconstrained quadratic loss against a time-varying sequence of functions from a Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Space (RKHS). Recently, Jacobsen and Cutkosky (2024) introduced a discounted Vovk-Azoury-Warmuth (DVAW) forecaster that achieves optimal dynamic regret in the finite-dimensional case. In this work, we lift their approach to the non-parametric domain by synthesizing the DVAW framework with a random feature approximation. We propose a fully adaptive, hierarchical algorithm, which we call H-VAW-D (Hierarchical Vovk-Azoury-Warmuth with Discounting), that learns both the discount factor and the number of random features. We prove that this algorithm, which has a per-iteration computational complexity of $O(T\ln T)$, achieves an expected dynamic regret of $O(T^{2/3}P_T^{1/3} + \sqrt{T}\ln T)$, where $P_T$ is the functional path length of a comparator sequence.

Detecting a minor average treatment effect is a major challenge in large-scale applications, where even minimal improvements can have a significant economic impact. Traditional methods, reliant on normal distribution-based or expanded statistics, often fail to identify such minor effects because of their inability to handle small discrepancies with sufficient sensitivity. This work leverages a counterfactual outcome framework and proposes a maximum probability-driven two-armed bandit (TAB) process by weighting the mean volatility statistic, which controls Type I error. The implementation of permutation methods further enhances the robustness and efficacy. The established strategic central limit theorem (SCLT) demonstrates that our approach yields a more concentrated distribution under the null hypothesis and a less concentrated one under the alternative hypothesis, greatly improving statistical power. The experimental results indicate a significant improvement in the A/B testing, highlighting the potential to reduce experimental costs while maintaining high statistical power.

Brain cognitive and sensory functions are often associated with electrophysiological activity at specific frequency bands. Clustering multivariate time series (MTS) data like EEGs is important for understanding brain functions but challenging due to complex non-stationary cross-dependencies, gradual transitions between cognitive states, noisy measurements, and ambiguous cluster boundaries. To address these issues, we develop a robust fuzzy clustering framework in the spectral domain. Our method leverages Kendall's tau-based canonical coherence, which extracts meaningful frequency-specific monotonic relationships between groups of channels or regions. KenCoh effectively captures dominant coherence structures while remaining robust against outliers and noise, making it suitable for real EEG datasets that typically contain artifacts. Our method first projects each MTS object onto vectors derived from the KenCoh estimates (i.e, canonical directions), which capture relevant information on the connectivity structure of oscillatory signals in predefined frequency bands. These spectral features are utilized to determine clusters of epochs using a fuzzy partitioning strategy, accommodating gradual transitions and overlapping class structure. Lastly, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach to EEG data where latent cognitive states such as alertness and drowsiness exhibit frequency-specific dynamics and ambiguity. Our method captures both spectral and spatial features by locating the frequency-dependent structure and brain functional connectivity. Built on the KenCoh framework for fuzzy clustering, it handles the complexity of high-dimensional time series data and is broadly applicable to domains such as neuroscience, wearable sensing, environmental monitoring, and finance.

In many modern applications, positive definite matrices are often used to summarize the marginal covariance structure among sets of variables. Examples include medical imaging (Dryden et al., 2009; Fillard et al., 2007), neuroscience (Friston, 2011; Kong et al., 2020; Hu et al., 2021) and gene coexpression analysis in single cell genomics. A central challenge in these fields is how to perform regression analysis where the covariance matrix serves as the outcome variable in relation to a set of Euclidean covariates and how to test for the association between these matrix and covariates. Several regression approaches for covariance matrix outcomes have been proposed. Chiu et al. (1996) developed a method that models the elements of the logarithm of the covariance matrix as a linear function of the covariates, but this approach requires estimating a large number of parameters. Hoff & Niu (2012) proposed a regression model where the covariance matrix is expressed as a quadratic function of the explanatory variables. Zou et al. (2017) linked the matrix outcome to a linear combination of similarity matrices derived from the covariates and examined the asymptotic properties of different estimators under this framework. Xu & Li (2025) introduced Fr echet regression with covariate matrix as the outcome.

State entropy regularization has empirically shown better exploration and sample complexity in reinforcement learning (RL). However, its theoretical guarantees have not been studied. In this paper, we show that state entropy regularization improves robustness to structured and spatially correlated perturbations. These types of variation are common in transfer learning but often overlooked by standard robust RL methods, which typically focus on small, uncorrelated changes. We provide a comprehensive characterization of these robustness properties, including formal guarantees under reward and transition uncertainty, as well as settings where the method performs poorly. Much of our analysis contrasts state entropy with the widely used policy entropy regularization, highlighting their different benefits. Finally, from a practical standpoint, we illustrate that compared with policy entropy, the robustness advantages of state entropy are more sensitive to the number of rollouts used for policy evaluation.

Cancer is a genetic disorder whose clonal evolution can be monitored by tracking noisy genome-wide copy number variants. We introduce the Copy Number Stochastic Block Model (CN-SBM), a probabilistic framework that jointly clusters samples and genomic regions based on discrete copy number states using a bipartite categorical block model. Unlike models relying on Gaussian or Poisson assumptions, CN-SBM respects the discrete nature of CNV calls and captures subpopulation-specific patterns through block-wise structure. Using a two-stage approach, CN-SBM decomposes CNV data into primary and residual components, enabling detection of both large-scale chromosomal alterations and finer aberrations. We derive a scalable variational inference algorithm for application to large cohorts and high-resolution data. Benchmarks on simulated and real datasets show improved model fit over existing methods. Applied to TCGA low-grade glioma data, CN-SBM reveals clinically relevant subtypes and structured residual variation, aiding patient stratification in survival analysis. These results establish CN-SBM as an interpretable, scalable framework for CNV analysis with direct relevance for tumor heterogeneity and prognosis.

Certain tasks in high-dimensional statistics become easier when the underlying distribution satisfies a local-to-global property called approximate tensorization of entropy (ATE). For example, the Glauber dynamics Markov chain of an ATE distribution mixes fast and can produce approximate samples in a small amount of time, since such a distribution satisfies a modified log-Sobolev inequality. Moreover, identity-testing for an ATE distribution requires few samples if the tester is given coordinate conditional access to the unknown distribution, as shown by Blanca, Chen, Štefankovič, and Vigoda (COLT 2023). A natural class of distributions that do not satisfy ATE consists of mixtures of (few) distributions that do satisfy ATE. We study the complexity of identity-testing and sampling for these distributions. Our main results are the following: 1. We show fast mixing of Glauber dynamics from a data-based initialization, with optimal sample complexity, for mixtures of distributions satisfying modified log-Sobolev inequalities. This extends work of Huang, Koehler, Lee, Mohanty, Rajaraman, Vuong, and Wu (STOC 2025, COLT 2025) for mixtures of distributions satisfying Poincaré inequalities. 2. Answering an open question posed by Blanca et al., we give efficient identity-testers for mixtures of ATE distributions in the coordinate-conditional sampling access model. We also give some simplifications and improvements to the original algorithm of Blanca et al.

Approximate Message Passing (AMP) algorithms enable precise characterization of certain classes of random objects in the high-dimensional limit, and have found widespread applications in fields such as signal processing, statistics, and communications. In this work, we introduce Multi-Environment Generalized Long AMP, a novel AMP framework that applies to transfer learning problems with multiple data sources and distribution shifts. We rigorously establish state evolution for multi-environment GLAMP. We demonstrate the utility of this framework by precisely characterizing the risk of three Lasso-based transfer learning estimators for the first time: the Stacked Lasso, the Model Averaging Estimator, and the Second Step Estimator. We also demonstrate the remarkable finite sample accuracy of our theory via extensive simulations.

In real-world scenarios, spatiotemporal traffic data frequently experiences dual degradation from missing values and noise caused by sensor malfunctions and communication failures. Therefore, effective data recovery methods are essential to ensure the reliability of downstream data-driven applications. while classical tensor completion methods have been widely adopted, they are incapable of modeling noise, making them unsuitable for complex scenarios involving simultaneous data missingness and noise interference. Existing Robust Tensor Completion (RTC) approaches offer potential solutions by separately modeling the actual tensor data and noise. However, their effectiveness is often constrained by the over-relaxation of convex rank surrogates and the suboptimal utilization of local consistency, leading to inadequate model accuracy. To address these limitations, we first introduce the tensor L1-L2 norm, a novel non-convex tensor rank surrogate that functions as an effective low-rank representation tool. Leveraging an advanced feature fusion strategy, we further develop the gradient tensor L1-L2 norm by incorporating the tensor L1-L2 norm in the gradient domain. By integrating the gradient tensor nuclear L1-L2 norm into the RTC framework, we propose the Robust Tensor Completion via Gradient Tensor Nuclear L1-L2 Norm (RTC-GTNLN) model, which not only fully exploits both global low-rankness and local consistency without trade-off parameter, but also effectively handles the dual degradation challenges of missing data and noise in traffic data. Extensive experiments conducted on multiple real-world traffic datasets demonstrate that the RTC-GTNLN model consistently outperforms existing state-of-the-art methods in complex recovery scenarios involving simultaneous missing values and noise.