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 Statistical Learning


Time Series Representations for Classification Lie Hidden in Pretrained Vision Transformers

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Time series classification is a fundamental task in healthcare and industry, yet the development of time series foundation models (TSFMs) remains limited by the scarcity of publicly available time series datasets. In this work, we propose Time Vision Transformer (TiViT), a framework that converts time series into images to leverage the representational power of frozen Vision Transformers (ViTs) pretrained on large-scale image datasets. First, we theoretically motivate our approach by analyzing the 2D patching of ViTs for time series, showing that it can increase the number of label-relevant tokens and reduce the sample complexity. Second, we empirically demonstrate that TiViT achieves state-of-the-art performance on standard time series classification benchmarks by utilizing the hidden representations of large OpenCLIP models. We explore the structure of TiViT representations and find that intermediate layers with high intrinsic dimension are the most effective for time series classification. Finally, we assess the alignment between TiViT and TSFM representation spaces and identify a strong complementarity, with further performance gains achieved by combining their features. Our findings reveal a new direction for reusing vision representations in a non-visual domain. Code is available at https://github.com/ExplainableML/TiViT.


How Do Vision-Language Models Process Conflicting Information Across Modalities?

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

AI models are increasingly required to be multimodal, integrating disparate input streams into a coherent state representation on which subsequent behaviors and actions can be based. This paper seeks to understand how such models behave when input streams present conflicting information. Focusing specifically on vision-language models, we provide inconsistent inputs (e.g., an image of a dog paired with the caption "A photo of a cat") and ask the model to report the information present in one of the specific modalities (e.g., "What does the caption say / What is in the image?"). We find that models often favor one modality over the other, e.g., reporting the image regardless of what the caption says, but that different models differ in which modality they favor. We find evidence that the behaviorally preferred modality is evident in the internal representational structure of the model, and that specific attention heads can restructure the representations to favor one modality over the other. Moreover, we find modality-agnostic "router heads" which appear to promote answers about the modality requested in the instruction, and which can be manipulated or transferred in order to improve performance across datasets and modalities. Together, the work provides essential steps towards identifying and controlling if and how models detect and resolve conflicting signals within complex multimodal environments.


Beyond First-Order: Training LLMs with Stochastic Conjugate Subgradients and AdamW

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Stochastic gradient-based descent (SGD), have long been central to training large language models (LLMs). However, their effectiveness is increasingly being questioned, particularly in large-scale applications where empirical evidence suggests potential performance limitations. In response, this paper proposes a stochastic conjugate subgradient method together with adaptive sampling tailored specifically for training LLMs. The method not only achieves faster convergence per iteration but also demonstrates improved scalability compared to traditional SGD techniques. It leverages sample complexity analysis to adaptively choose the sample size, employs a stochastic conjugate subgradient approach to determine search directions and utilizing an AdamW-like algorithm to adaptively adjust step sizes. This approach preserves the key advantages of first-order methods while effectively addressing the nonconvexity and non-smoothness inherent in LLMs training. Additionally, we provide a detailed analysis of the advantage of the algorithm. Experimental results show that the proposed method not only maintains, but in many cases surpasses, the scalability of traditional SGD techniques, significantly enhancing both the speed and accuracy of the optimization process.


Variational Digital Twins

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

While digital twins (DT) hold promise for providing real-time insights into complex energy assets, much of the current literature either does not offer a clear framework for information exchange between the model and the asset, lacks key features needed for real-time implementation, or gives limited attention to model uncertainty. Here, we aim to solve these gaps by proposing a variational digital twin (VDT) framework that augments standard neural architectures with a single Bayesian output layer. This lightweight addition, along with a novel VDT updating algorithm, lets a twin update in seconds on commodity GPUs while producing calibrated uncertainty bounds that can inform experiment design, control algorithms, and model reliability. The VDT is evaluated on four energy-sector problems. For critical-heat-flux prediction, uncertainty-driven active learning reaches R2 = 0.98 using 47 % fewer experiments and one-third the training time of random sampling. A three-year renewable-generation twin maintains R2 > 0.95 for solar output and curbs error growth for volatile wind forecasts via monthly updates that process only one month of data at a time. A nuclear reactor transient cooldown twin reconstructs thermocouple signals with R2 > 0.99 and preserves accuracy after 50 % sensor loss, demonstrating robustness to degraded instrumentation. Finally, a physics-informed Li-ion battery twin, retrained after every ten discharges, lowers voltage mean-squared error by an order of magnitude relative to the best static model while adapting its credible intervals as the cell approaches end-of-life. These results demonstrate that combining modest Bayesian augmentation with efficient update schemes turns conventional surrogates into uncertainty-aware, data-efficient, and computationally tractable DTs, paving the way for dependable models across industrial and scientific energy systems.


An Uncertainty-Aware Dynamic Decision Framework for Progressive Multi-Omics Integration in Classification Tasks

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Background and Objective: High-throughput multi-omics technologies have proven invaluable for elucidating disease mechanisms and enabling early diagnosis. However, the high cost of multi-omics profiling imposes a significant economic burden, with over reliance on full omics data potentially leading to unnecessary resource consumption. To address these issues, we propose an uncertainty-aware, multi-view dynamic decision framework for omics data classification that aims to achieve high diagnostic accuracy while minimizing testing costs. Methodology: At the single-omics level, we refine the activation functions of neural networks to generate Dirichlet distribution parameters, utilizing subjective logic to quantify both the belief masses and uncertainty mass of classification results. Belief mass reflects the support of a specific omics modality for a disease class, while the uncertainty parameter captures limitations in data quality and model discriminability, providing a more trustworthy basis for decision-making. At the multi omics level, we employ a fusion strategy based on Dempster-Shafer theory to integrate heterogeneous modalities, leveraging their complementarity to boost diagnostic accuracy and robustness. A dynamic decision mechanism is then applied that omics data are incrementally introduced for each patient until either all data sources are utilized or the model confidence exceeds a predefined threshold, potentially before all data sources are utilized. Results and Conclusion: We evaluate our approach on four benchmark multi-omics datasets, ROSMAP, LGG, BRCA, and KIPAN. In three datasets, over 50% of cases achieved accurate classification using a single omics modality, effectively reducing redundant testing. Meanwhile, our method maintains diagnostic performance comparable to full-omics models and preserves essential biological insights.


HPC-AI Coupling Methodology for Scientific Applications

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Artificial intelligence (AI) technologies have fundamentally transformed numerical-based high-performance computing (HPC) applications with data-driven approaches and endeavored to address existing challenges, e.g. high computational intensity, in various scientific domains. In this study, we explore the scenarios of coupling HPC and AI (HPC-AI) in the context of emerging scientific applications, presenting a novel methodology that incorporates three patterns of coupling: surrogate, directive, and coordinate. Each pattern exemplifies a distinct coupling strategy, AI-driven prerequisite, and typical HPC-AI ensembles. Through case studies in materials science, we demonstrate the application and effectiveness of these patterns. The study highlights technical challenges, performance improvements, and implementation details, providing insight into promising perspectives of HPC-AI coupling. The proposed coupling patterns are applicable not only to materials science but also to other scientific domains, offering valuable guidance for future HPC-AI ensembles in scientific discovery.


Adapting Rule Representation With Four-Parameter Beta Distribution for Learning Classifier Systems

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Rule representations significantly influence the search capabilities and decision boundaries within the search space of Learning Classifier Systems (LCSs), a family of rule-based machine learning systems that evolve interpretable models through evolutionary processes. However, it is very difficult to choose an appropriate rule representation for each problem. Additionally, some problems benefit from using different representations for different subspaces within the input space. Thus, an adaptive mechanism is needed to choose an appropriate rule representation for each rule in LCSs. This article introduces a flexible rule representation using a four-parameter beta distribution and integrates it into a fuzzy-style LCS. The four-parameter beta distribution can form various function shapes, and this flexibility enables our LCS to automatically select appropriate representations for different subspaces. Our rule representation can represent crisp/fuzzy decision boundaries in various boundary shapes, such as rectangles and bells, by controlling four parameters, compared to the standard representations such as trapezoidal ones. Leveraging this flexibility, our LCS is designed to adapt the appropriate rule representation for each subspace. Moreover, our LCS incorporates a generalization bias favoring crisp rules where feasible, enhancing model interpretability without compromising accuracy. Experimental results on real-world classification tasks show that our LCS achieves significantly superior test accuracy and produces more compact rule sets. Our implementation is available at https://github.com/YNU-NakataLab/Beta4-UCS. An extended abstract related to this work is available at https://doi.org/10.36227/techrxiv.174900805.59801248/v1.


Variational Autoencoder for Generating Broader-Spectrum prior Proposals in Markov chain Monte Carlo Methods

arXiv.org Machine Learning

This study uses a Variational Autoencoder method to enhance the efficiency and applicability of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (McMC) methods by generating broader-spectrum prior proposals. Traditional approaches, such as the Karhunen-Loรจve Expansion (KLE), require previous knowledge of the covariance function, often unavailable in practical applications. The VAE framework enables a data-driven approach to flexibly capture a broader range of correlation structures in Bayesian inverse problems, particularly subsurface flow modeling. The methodology is tested on a synthetic groundwater flow inversion problem, where pressure data is used to estimate permeability fields. Numerical experiments demonstrate that the VAE-based parameterization achieves comparable accuracy to KLE when the correlation length is known and outperforms KLE when the assumed correlation length deviates from the true value. Moreover, the VAE approach significantly reduces stochastic dimensionality, improving computational efficiency. The results suggest that leveraging deep generative models in McMC methods can lead to more adaptable and efficient Bayesian inference in high-dimensional problems.


Interpretable AI for Time-Series: Multi-Model Heatmap Fusion with Global Attention and NLP-Generated Explanations

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In this paper, we present a novel framework for enhancing model interpretability by integrating heatmaps produced separately by ResNet and a restructured 2D Transformer with globally weighted input saliency. We address the critical problem of spatial-temporal misalignment in existing interpretability methods, where convolutional networks fail to capture global context and Transformers lack localized precision - a limitation that impedes actionable insights in safety-critical domains like healthcare and industrial monitoring. Our method merges gradient-weighted activation maps (ResNet) and Transformer attention rollout into a unified visualization, achieving full spatial-temporal alignment while preserving real-time performance. Empirical evaluations on clinical (ECG arrhythmia detection) and industrial (energy consumption prediction) datasets demonstrate significant improvements: the hybrid framework achieves 94.1% accuracy (F1 0.93) on the PhysioNet dataset and reduces regression error to RMSE = 0.28 kWh (R2 = 0.95) on the UCI Energy Appliance dataset-outperforming standalone ResNet, Transformer, and InceptionTime baselines by 3.8-12.4%. An NLP module translates fused heatmaps into domain-specific narratives (e.g., "Elevated ST-segment between 2-4 seconds suggests myocardial ischemia"), validated via BLEU-4 (0.586) and ROUGE-L (0.650) scores. By formalizing interpretability as causal fidelity and spatial-temporal alignment, our approach bridges the gap between technical outputs and stakeholder understanding, offering a scalable solution for transparent, time-aware decision-making.


Avoid Forgetting by Preserving Global Knowledge Gradients in Federated Learning with Non-IID Data

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The inevitable presence of data heterogeneity has made federated learning very challenging. There are numerous methods to deal with this issue, such as local regularization, better model fusion techniques, and data sharing. Though effective, they lack a deep understanding of how data heterogeneity can affect the global decision boundary. In this paper, we bridge this gap by performing an experimental analysis of the learned decision boundary using a toy example. Our observations are surprising: (1) we find that the existing methods suffer from forgetting and clients forget the global decision boundary and only learn the perfect local one, and (2) this happens regardless of the initial weights, and clients forget the global decision boundary even starting from pre-trained optimal weights. In this paper, we present FedProj, a federated learning framework that robustly learns the global decision boundary and avoids its forgetting during local training. To achieve better ensemble knowledge fusion, we design a novel server-side ensemble knowledge transfer loss to further calibrate the learned global decision boundary. To alleviate the issue of learned global decision boundary forgetting, we further propose leveraging an episodic memory of average ensemble logits on a public unlabeled dataset to regulate the gradient updates at each step of local training. Experimental results demonstrate that FedProj outperforms state-of-the-art methods by a large margin.