Sampling from complex target distributions is a challenging task fundamental to Bayesian inference. Parallel tempering (PT) addresses this problem by constructing a Markov chain on the expanded state space of a sequence of distributions interpolating between the posterior distribution and a fixed reference distribution, which is typically chosen to be the prior. However, in the typical case where the prior and posterior are nearly mutually singular, PT methods are computationally prohibitive. In this work we address this challenge by constructing a generalized annealing path connecting the posterior to an adaptively tuned variational reference. The reference distribution is tuned to minimize the forward (inclusive) KL divergence to the posterior distribution using a simple, gradient-free moment-matching procedure. We show that our adaptive procedure converges to the forward KL minimizer, and that the forward KL divergence serves as a good proxy to a previously developed measure of PT performance. We also show that in the large-data limit in typical Bayesian models, the proposed method improves in performance, while traditional PT deteriorates arbitrarily. Finally, we introduce PT with two references--one fixed, one variational--with a novel split annealing path that ensures stable variational reference adaptation. The paper concludes with experiments that demonstrate the large empirical gains achieved by our method in a wide range of realistic Bayesian inference scenarios.

Bayesian causal discovery aims to infer the posterior distribution over causal models from observed data, quantifying epistemic uncertainty and benefiting downstream tasks. However, computational challenges arise due to joint inference over combinatorial space of Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAGs) and nonlinear functions. Despite recent progress towards efficient posterior inference over DAGs, existing methods are either limited to variational inference on node permutation matrices for linear causal models, leading to compromised inference accuracy, or continuous relaxation of adjacency matrices constrained by a DAG regularizer, which cannot ensure resulting graphs are DAGs. In this work, we introduce a scalable Bayesian causal discovery framework based on a combination of stochastic gradient Markov Chain Monte Carlo (SG-MCMC) and Variational Inference (VI) that overcomes these limitations. Our approach directly samples DAGs from the posterior without requiring any DAG regularization, simultaneously draws function parameter samples and is applicable to both linear and nonlinear causal models. To enable our approach, we derive a novel equivalence to the permutation-based DAG learning, which opens up possibilities of using any relaxed gradient estimator defined over permutations. To our knowledge, this is the first framework applying gradient-based MCMC sampling for causal discovery. Empirical evaluation on synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate our approach's effectiveness compared to state-of-the-art baselines.

The existing analysis of asynchronous stochastic gradient descent (SGD) degrades dramatically when any delay is large, giving the impression that performance depends primarily on the delay. On the contrary, we prove much better guarantees for the same asynchronous SGD algorithm regardless of the delays in the gradients, depending instead just on the number of parallel devices used to implement the algorithm. Our guarantees are strictly better than the existing analyses, and we also argue that asynchronous SGD outperforms synchronous minibatch SGD in the settings we consider. For our analysis, we introduce a novel recursion based on "virtual iterates" and delay-adaptive stepsizes, which allow us to derive state-of-theart guarantees for both convex and non-convex objectives.

C.2 Consolidated CV with random features Alternatively, one can use random features (Rahimi and Recht, 2007) to approximate the kernel matrix. Suppose that we consider shift-invariant kernels that satisfy K(x,y) = K(x y). In this work we use the radial kernel K(x,y) = exp( σ x y 22). The kernel can be approximated by K(x,y) φ(x),φ(y), where an explicit randomized feature mapping φ: IRp IRm is obtained by sampling from a distribution defined by the inverse Fourier transformation.