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 Statistical Learning


Identification of Violin Reduction via Contour Lines Classification

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The first violins appeared in late 16th-century Italy. Over the next 200 years, they spread across Europe and luthiers of various royal courts, eager to experiment with new techniques, created a highly diverse family of instruments. Around 1750, size standards were introduced to unify violin making for orchestras and conservatories. Instruments that fell between two standards were then reduced to a smaller size by luthiers. These reductions have an impact on several characteristics of violins, in particular on the contour lines, i.e. lines of constant altitude, which look more like a U for non reduced instruments and a V for reduced ones. While such differences are observed by experts, they have not been studied quantitatively. This paper presents a method for classifying violins as reduced or non-reduced based on their contour lines. We study a corpus of 25 instruments whose 3D geometric meshes were acquired via photogrammetry. For each instrument, we extract 10-20 contour lines regularly spaced every millimetre. Each line is fitted with a parabola-like curve (with an equation of the type y = alpha*abs(x)**beta) depending on two parameters, describing how open (beta) and how vertically stretched (alpha) the curve is. We compute additional features from those parameters, using regressions and counting how many values fall under some threshold. We also deal with outliers and non equal numbers of levels, and eventually obtain a numerical profile for each instrument. We then apply classification methods to assess whether geometry alone can predict size reduction. We find that distinguishing between reduced and non reduced instruments is feasible to some degree, taking into account that a whole spectrum of more or less transformed violins exists, for which it is more difficult to quantify the reduction. We also find the opening parameter beta to be the most predictive.


Improving Clustering on Occupational Text Data through Dimensionality Reduction

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In this study, we focused on proposing an optimal clustering mechanism for the occupations defined in the well-known US-based occupational database, O*NET. Even though all occupations are defined according to well-conducted surveys in the US, their definitions can vary for different firms and countries. Hence, if one wants to expand the data that is already collected in O*NET for the occupations defined with different tasks, a map between the definitions will be a vital requirement. We proposed a pipeline using several BERT-based techniques with various clustering approaches to obtain such a map. We also examined the effect of dimensionality reduction approaches on several metrics used in measuring performance of clustering algorithms. Finally, we improved our results by using a specialized silhouette approach. This new clustering-based mapping approach with dimensionality reduction may help distinguish the occupations automatically, creating new paths for people wanting to change their careers.


NexViTAD: Few-shot Unsupervised Cross-Domain Defect Detection via Vision Foundation Models and Multi-Task Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper presents a novel few-shot cross-domain anomaly detection framework, Nexus Vision Transformer for Anomaly Detection (NexViTAD), based on vision foundation models, which effectively addresses domain-shift challenges in industrial anomaly detection through innovative shared subspace projection mechanisms and multi-task learning (MTL) module. The main innovations include: (1) a hierarchical adapter module that adaptively fuses complementary features from Hiera and DINO-v2 pre-trained models, constructing more robust feature representations; (2) a shared subspace projection strategy that enables effective cross-domain knowledge transfer through bottleneck dimension constraints and skip connection mechanisms; (3) a MTL Decoder architecture supports simultaneous processing of multiple source domains, significantly enhancing model generalization capabilities; (4) an anomaly score inference method based on Sinkhorn-K-means clustering, combined with Gaussian filtering and adaptive threshold processing for precise pixel level. Valuated on the MVTec AD dataset, NexViTAD delivers state-of-the-art performance with an AUC of 97.5%, AP of 70.4%, and PRO of 95.2% in the target domains, surpassing other recent models, marking a transformative advance in cross-domain defect detection.


Data-driven Kinematic Modeling in Soft Robots: System Identification and Uncertainty Quantification

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Precise kinematic modeling is critical in calibration and controller design for soft robots, yet remains a challenging issue due to their highly nonlinear and complex behaviors. To tackle the issue, numerous data-driven machine learning approaches have been proposed for modeling nonlinear dynamics. However, these models suffer from prediction uncertainty that can negatively affect modeling accuracy, and uncertainty quantification for kinematic modeling in soft robots is underexplored. In this work, using limited simulation and real-world data, we first investigate multiple linear and nonlinear machine learning models commonly used for kinematic modeling of soft robots. The results reveal that nonlinear ensemble methods exhibit the most robust generalization performance. We then develop a conformal kinematic modeling framework for soft robots by utilizing split conformal prediction to quantify predictive position uncertainty, ensuring distribution-free prediction intervals with a theoretical guarantee.


Benchmarking Waitlist Mortality Prediction in Heart Transplantation Through Time-to-Event Modeling using New Longitudinal UNOS Dataset

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Decisions about managing patients on the heart transplant waitlist are currently made by committees of doctors who consider multiple factors, but the process remains largely ad-hoc. With the growing volume of longitudinal patient, donor, and organ data collected by the United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS) since 2018, there is increasing interest in analytical approaches to support clinical decision-making at the time of organ availability. In this study, we benchmark machine learning models that leverage longitudinal waitlist history data for time-dependent, time-to-event modeling of waitlist mortality. We train on 23,807 patient records with 77 variables and evaluate both survival prediction and discrimination at a 1-year horizon. Our best model achieves a C-Index of 0.94 and AUROC of 0.89, significantly outperforming previous models. Key predictors align with known risk factors while also revealing novel associations. Our findings can support urgency assessment and policy refinement in heart transplant decision making.


Optimizing Model Splitting and Device Task Assignment for Deceptive Signal Assisted Private Multi-hop Split Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In this paper, deceptive signal-assisted private split learning is investigated. In our model, several edge devices jointly perform collaborative training, and some eavesdroppers aim to collect the model and data information from devices. To prevent the eavesdroppers from collecting model and data information, a subset of devices can transmit deceptive signals. Therefore, it is necessary to determine the subset of devices used for deceptive signal transmission, the subset of model training devices, and the models assigned to each model training device. This problem is formulated as an optimization problem whose goal is to minimize the information leaked to eavesdroppers while meeting the model training energy consumption and delay constraints. To solve this problem, we propose a soft actor-critic deep reinforcement learning framework with intrinsic curiosity module and cross-attention (ICM-CA) that enables a centralized agent to determine the model training devices, the deceptive signal transmission devices, the transmit power, and sub-models assigned to each model training device without knowing the position and monitoring probability of eavesdroppers. The proposed method uses an ICM module to encourage the server to explore novel actions and states and a CA module to determine the importance of each historical state-action pair thus improving training efficiency. Simulation results demonstrate that the proposed method improves the convergence rate by up to 3x and reduces the information leaked to eavesdroppers by up to 13% compared to the traditional SAC algorithm.


Multilayer GNN for Predictive Maintenance and Clustering in Power Grids

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Unplanned power outages cost the US economy over $150 billion annually, partly due to predictive maintenance (PdM) models that overlook spatial, temporal, and causal dependencies in grid failures. This study introduces a multilayer Graph Neural Network (GNN) framework to enhance PdM and enable resilience-based substation clustering. Using seven years of incident data from Oklahoma Gas & Electric (292,830 records across 347 substations), the framework integrates Graph Attention Networks (spatial), Graph Convolutional Networks (temporal), and Graph Isomorphism Networks (causal), fused through attention-weighted embeddings. Our model achieves a 30-day F1-score of 0.8935 +/- 0.0258, outperforming XGBoost and Random Forest by 3.2% and 2.7%, and single-layer GNNs by 10 to 15 percent. Removing the causal layer drops performance to 0.7354 +/- 0.0418. For resilience analysis, HDBSCAN clustering on HierarchicalRiskGNN embeddings identifies eight operational risk groups. The highest-risk cluster (Cluster 5, 44 substations) shows 388.4 incidents/year and 602.6-minute recovery time, while low-risk groups report fewer than 62 incidents/year. ANOVA (p < 0.0001) confirms significant inter-cluster separation. Our clustering outperforms K-Means and Spectral Clustering with a Silhouette Score of 0.626 and Davies-Bouldin index of 0.527. This work supports proactive grid management through improved failure prediction and risk-aware substation clustering.


Time Series Foundation Models for Multivariate Financial Time Series Forecasting

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Financial time series forecasting presents significant challenges due to complex nonlinear relationships, temporal dependencies, variable interdependencies and limited data availability, particularly for tasks involving low-frequency data, newly listed instruments, or emerging market assets. Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) offer a promising solution through pretraining on diverse time series corpora followed by task-specific adaptation. This study evaluates two TSFMs (Tiny Time Mixers (TTM) and Chronos) across three financial forecasting tasks: US 10-year Treasury yield changes, EUR/USD volatility, and equity spread prediction. Results demonstrate that TTM exhibits strong transferability. When fine-tuning both the pretrained version of TTM and an untrained model with the same architecture, the pretrained version achieved 25-50% better performance when fine-tuned on limited data and 15-30% improvements even when fine-tuned on lengthier datasets. Notably, TTM's zero-shot performance outperformed naive benchmarks in volatility forecasting and equity spread prediction, with the latter demonstrating that TSFMs can surpass traditional benchmark models without fine-tuning. The pretrained model consistently required 3-10 fewer years of data to achieve comparable performance levels compared to the untrained model, demonstrating significant sample-efficiency gains. However, while TTM outperformed naive baselines, traditional specialised models matched or exceeded its performance in two of three tasks, suggesting TSFMs prioritise breadth over task-specific optimisation. These findings indicate that TSFMs, though still nascent, offer substantial promise for financial forecasting-particularly in noisy, data-constrained tasks-but achieving competitive performance likely requires domain-specific pretraining and architectural refinements tailored to financial time series characteristics.


Estimating Dataset Dimension via Singular Metrics under the Manifold Hypothesis: Application to Inverse Problems

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

High-dimensional datasets often exhibit low-dimensional geometric structures, as suggested by the manifold hypothesis, which implies that data lie on a smooth manifold embedded in a higher-dimensional ambient space. While this insight underpins many advances in machine learning and inverse problems, fully leveraging it requires to deal with three key tasks: estimating the intrinsic dimension (ID) of the manifold, constructing appropriate local coordinates, and learning mappings between ambient and manifold spaces. In this work, we propose a framework that addresses all these challenges using a Mixture of Variational Autoencoders (VAEs) and tools from Riemannian geometry. We specifically focus on estimating the ID of datasets by analyzing the numerical rank of the VAE decoder pullback metric. The estimated ID guides the construction of an atlas of local charts using a mixture of invertible VAEs, enabling accurate manifold parameterization and efficient inference. We how this approach enhances solutions to ill-posed inverse problems, particularly in biomedical imaging, by enforcing that reconstructions lie on the learned manifold. Lastly, we explore the impact of network pruning on manifold geometry and reconstruction quality, showing that the intrinsic dimension serves as an effective proxy for monitoring model capacity.


The Impact of Background Speech on Interruption Detection in Collaborative Groups

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Interruption plays a crucial role in collaborative learning, shaping group interactions and influencing knowledge construction. AI-driven support can assist teachers in monitoring these interactions. However, most previous work on interruption detection and interpretation has been conducted in single-conversation environments with relatively clean audio. AI agents deployed in classrooms for collaborative learning within small groups will need to contend with multiple concurrent conversations -- in this context, overlapping speech will be ubiquitous, and interruptions will need to be identified in other ways. In this work, we analyze interruption detection in single-conversation and multi-group dialogue settings. We then create a state-of-the-art method for interruption identification that is robust to overlapping speech, and thus could be deployed in classrooms. Further, our work highlights meaningful linguistic and prosodic information about how interruptions manifest in collaborative group interactions. Our investigation also paves the way for future works to account for the influence of overlapping speech from multiple groups when tracking group dialog.