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 Statistical Learning


It's Hard to Be Normal: The Impact of Noise on Structure-agnostic Estimation

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Structure-agnostic causal inference studies how well one can estimate a treatment effect given black-box machine learning estimates of nuisance functions (like the impact of confounders on treatment and outcomes). Here, we find that the answer depends in a surprising way on the distribution of the treatment noise. Focusing on the partially linear model of \citet{robinson1988root}, we first show that the widely adopted double machine learning (DML) estimator is minimax rate-optimal for Gaussian treatment noise, resolving an open problem of \citet{mackey2018orthogonal}. Meanwhile, for independent non-Gaussian treatment noise, we show that DML is always suboptimal by constructing new practical procedures with higher-order robustness to nuisance errors. These \emph{ACE} procedures use structure-agnostic cumulant estimators to achieve $r$-th order insensitivity to nuisance errors whenever the $(r+1)$-st treatment cumulant is non-zero. We complement these core results with novel minimax guarantees for binary treatments in the partially linear model. Finally, using synthetic demand estimation experiments, we demonstrate the practical benefits of our higher-order robust estimators.


Coefficient Shape Transfer Learning for Functional Linear Regression

arXiv.org Machine Learning

In this paper, we develop a novel transfer learning methodology to tackle the challenge of data scarcity in functional linear models. The methodology incorporates samples from the target model (target domain) alongside those from auxiliary models (source domains), transferring knowledge of coefficient shape from the source domains to the target domain. This shape-based knowledge transfer offers two key advantages. First, it is robust to covariate scaling, ensuring effectiveness despite variations in data distributions across different source domains. Second, the notion of coefficient shape homogeneity represents a meaningful advance beyond traditional coefficient homogeneity, allowing the method to exploit a wider range of source domains and achieve significantly improved model estimation. We rigorously analyze the convergence rates of the proposed estimator and examine the minimax optimality. Our findings show that the degree of improvement depends not only on the similarity of coefficient shapes between the target and source domains, but also on coefficient magnitudes and the spectral decay rates of the functional covariates covariance operators. To address situations where only a subset of auxiliary models is informative for the target model, we further develop a data-driven procedure for identifying such informative sources. The effectiveness of the proposed methodology is demonstrated through comprehensive simulation studies and an application to occupation time analysis using physical activity data from the U.S. National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey.


Structural Classification of Locally Stationary Time Series Based on Second-order Characteristics

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Time series classification is crucial for numerous scientific and engineering applications. In this article, we present a numerically efficient, practically competitive, and theoretically rigorous classification method for distinguishing between two classes of locally stationary time series based on their time-domain, second-order characteristics. Our approach builds on the autoregressive approximation for locally stationary time series, combined with an ensemble aggregation and a distance-based threshold for classification. It imposes no requirement on the training sample size, and is shown to achieve zero misclassification error rate asymptotically when the underlying time series differ only mildly in their second-order characteristics. The new method is demonstrated to outperform a variety of state-of-the-art solutions, including wavelet-based, tree-based, convolution-based methods, as well as modern deep learning methods, through intensive numerical simulations and a real EEG data analysis for epilepsy classification.


LARP: Learner-Agnostic Robust Data Prefiltering

arXiv.org Machine Learning

The widespread availability of large public datasets is a key factor behind the recent successes of statistical inference and machine learning methods. However, these datasets often contain some low-quality or contaminated data, to which many learning procedures are sensitive. Therefore, the question of whether and how public datasets should be prefiltered to facilitate accurate downstream learning arises. On a technical level this requires the construction of principled data prefiltering methods which are learner-agnostic robust, in the sense of provably protecting a set of pre-specified downstream learners from corrupted data. In this work, we formalize the problem of Learner-Agnostic Robust data Prefiltering (LARP), which aims at finding prefiltering procedures that minimize a worst-case loss over a pre-specified set of learners. We first instantiate our framework in the context of scalar mean estimation with Huber estimators under the Huber data contamination model. We provide a hardness result on a specific problem instance and analyze several natural prefiltering procedures. Our theoretical results indicate that performing LARP on a heterogeneous set of learners leads to some loss in model performance compared to the alternative of prefiltering data for each learner/use-case individually. We explore the resulting utility loss and its dependence on the problem parameters via extensive experiments on real-world image and tabular data, observing statistically significant reduction in utility. Finally, we model the trade-off between the utility drop and the cost of repeated (learner-specific) prefiltering within a game-theoretic framework and showcase benefits of LARP for large datasets.


Why is Your Language Model a Poor Implicit Reward Model?

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Reward models are key to language model post-training and inference pipelines. Conveniently, recent work showed that every language model defines an implicit reward model (IM-RM), without requiring any architectural changes. However, such IM-RMs tend to generalize worse, especially out-of-distribution, compared to explicit reward models (EX-RMs) that apply a dedicated linear head over the hidden representations of a language model. The existence of a generalization gap is puzzling, as EX-RMs and IM-RMs are nearly identical. They can be trained using the same data, loss function, and language model, and differ only in how the reward is computed. Towards a fundamental understanding of the implicit biases underlying different reward model types, we investigate the root cause of this gap. Our main finding, backed by theory and experiments, is that IM-RMs rely more heavily on superficial token-level cues. Consequently, they often generalize worse than EX-RMs under token-level distribution shifts, as well as in-distribution. Furthermore, we provide evidence against alternative hypotheses for the generalization gap. Most notably, we challenge the intuitive claim that IM-RMs struggle in tasks where generation is harder than verification because they can operate both as a verifier and a generator. Taken together, our results highlight that seemingly minor design choices can substantially impact the generalization behavior of reward models.


Topological Machine Learning with Unreduced Persistence Diagrams

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Supervised machine learning pipelines trained on features derived from persistent homology have been experimentally observed to ignore much of the information contained in a persistence diagram. Computing persistence diagrams is often the most computationally demanding step in such a pipeline, however. To explore this, we introduce several methods to generate topological feature vectors from unreduced boundary matrices. We compared the performance of pipelines trained on vectorizations of unreduced PDs to vectorizations of fully-reduced PDs across several data and task types. Our results indicate that models trained on PDs built from unreduced diagrams can perform on par and even outperform those trained on fully-reduced diagrams on some tasks. This observation suggests that machine learning pipelines which incorporate topology-based features may benefit in terms of computational cost and performance by utilizing information contained in unreduced boundary matrices.


FedP3E: Privacy-Preserving Prototype Exchange for Non-IID IoT Malware Detection in Cross-Silo Federated Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

--As IoT ecosystems continue to expand across critical sectors, they have become prominent targets for increasingly sophisticated and large-scale malware attacks. The evolving threat landscape, combined with the sensitive nature of IoT - generated data, demands detection frameworks that are both privacy-preserving and resilient to data heterogeneity. Federated Learning (FL) offers a promising solution by enabling decentralized model training without exposing raw data. However, standard FL algorithms such as FedA vg and FedProx often fall short in real-world deployments characterized by class imbalance and non-IID data distributions--particularly in the presence of rare or disjoint malware classes. T o address these challenges, we propose FedP3E (Privacy-Preserving Prototype Exchange), a novel FL framework that supports indirect cross-client representation sharing while maintaining data privacy. The aggregated prototypes are then distributed back to clients and integrated into local training, supported by SMOTE-based augmentation to enhance representation of minority malware classes. Rather than relying solely on parameter averaging, our prototype-driven mechanism enables clients to enrich their local models with complementary structural patterns observed across the federation--without exchanging raw data or gradients. This targeted strategy reduces the adverse impact of statistical heterogeneity with minimal communication overhead. We evaluate FedP3E on the N-BaIoT dataset under realistic cross-silo scenarios with varying degrees of data imbalance. Results demonstrate that FedP3E consistently surpasses FedA vg and FedProx in malware detection performance, achieving accuracy ranging from 95.11% in severe non-IID conditions to 99.57% under light heterogeneity. HE rapid advancement of 5G and the anticipated deployment of Beyond 5G (B5G) technologies are driving the proliferation of IoT devices at an unprecedented scale [1]. This hyper-connectivity is enabling new capabilities across healthcare, transportation, industry, and military sectors--collectively referred to as the Extended IoT (XIoT) [2]. However, the expansion of these networks has also introduced a significantly larger attack surface, accelerating both the frequency and severity of cyber threats targeting IoT ecosystems.


Str-GCL: Structural Commonsense Driven Graph Contrastive Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Graph Contrastive Learning (GCL) is a widely adopted approach in self-supervised graph representation learning, applying contrastive objectives to produce effective representations. However, current GCL methods primarily focus on capturing implicit semantic relationships, often overlooking the structural commonsense embedded within the graph's structure and attributes, which contains underlying knowledge crucial for effective representation learning. Due to the lack of explicit information and clear guidance in general graph, identifying and integrating such structural commonsense in GCL poses a significant challenge. To address this gap, we propose a novel framework called Structural Commonsense Unveiling in Graph Contrastive Learning (Str-GCL). Str-GCL leverages first-order logic rules to represent structural commonsense and explicitly integrates them into the GCL framework. It introduces topological and attribute-based rules without altering the original graph and employs a representation alignment mechanism to guide the encoder in effectively capturing this commonsense. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first attempt to directly incorporate structural commonsense into GCL. Extensive experiments demonstrate that Str-GCL outperforms existing GCL methods, providing a new perspective on leveraging structural commonsense in graph representation learning.


DpDNet: An Dual-Prompt-Driven Network for Universal PET-CT Segmentation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

PET-CT lesion segmentation is challenging due to noise sensitivity, small and variable lesion morphology, and interference from physiological high-metabolic signals. Current mainstream approaches follow the practice of one network solving the segmentation of multiple cancer lesions by treating all cancers as a single task. However, this overlooks the unique characteristics of different cancer types. Considering the specificity and similarity of different cancers in terms of metastatic patterns, organ preferences, and FDG uptake intensity, we propose DpDNet, a Dual-Prompt-Driven network that incorporates specific prompts to capture cancer-specific features and common prompts to retain shared knowledge. Additionally, to mitigate information forgetting caused by the early introduction of prompts, prompt-aware heads are employed after the decoder to adaptively handle multiple segmentation tasks. Experiments on a PET-CT dataset with four cancer types show that DpDNet outperforms state-of-the-art models. Finally, based on the segmentation results, we calculated MTV, TLG, and SUVmax for breast cancer survival analysis. The results suggest that DpDNet has the potential to serve as a valuable tool for personalized risk stratification, supporting clinicians in optimizing treatment strategies and improving outcomes. Code is available at https://github.com/XinglongLiang08/DpDNet.


Synergistic Localization and Sensing in MIMO-OFDM Systems via Mixed-Integer Bilevel Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Wireless localization and sensing technologies are essential in modern wireless networks, supporting applications in smart cities, the Internet of Things (IoT), and autonomous systems. High-performance localization and sensing systems are critical for both network efficiency and emerging intelligent applications. Integrating channel state information (CSI) with deep learning has recently emerged as a promising solution. Recent works have leveraged the spatial diversity of multiple input multiple output (MIMO) systems and the frequency granularity of orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (OFDM) waveforms to improve spatial resolution. Nevertheless, the joint modeling of localization and sensing under the high-dimensional CSI characteristics of MIMO-OFDM systems remains insufficiently investigated. This work aims to jointly model and optimize localization and sensing tasks to harness their potential synergy. We first formulate localization and sensing as a mixed-integer bilevel deep learning problem and then propose a novel stochastic proximal gradient-based mixed-integer bilevel optimization (SPG-MIBO) algorithm. SPG-MIBO is well-suited for high-dimensional and large-scale datasets, leveraging mini-batch training at each step for computational and memory efficiency. The algorithm is also supported by theoretical convergence guarantees. Extensive experiments on multiple datasets validate its effectiveness and highlight the performance gains from joint localization and sensing optimization.