We provide new high-accuracy randomized algorithms for solving linear systems and regression problems that are well-conditioned except for $k$ large singular values. For solving such $d \times d$ positive definite system our algorithms succeed whp. and run in time $\tilde O(d^2 + k^ω)$. For solving such regression problems in a matrix $\mathbf{A} \in \mathbb{R}^{n \times d}$ our methods succeed whp. and run in time $\tilde O(\mathrm{nnz}(\mathbf{A}) + d^2 + k^ω)$ where $ω$ is the matrix multiplication exponent and $\mathrm{nnz}(\mathbf{A})$ is the number of non-zeros in $\mathbf{A}$. Our methods nearly-match a natural complexity limit under dense inputs for these problems and improve upon a trade-off in prior approaches that obtain running times of either $\tilde O(d^{2.065}+k^ω)$ or $\tilde O(d^2 + dk^{ω-1})$ for $d\times d$ systems. Moreover, we show how to obtain these running times even under the weaker assumption that all but $k$ of the singular values have a suitably bounded generalized mean. Consequently, we give the first nearly-linear time algorithm for computing a multiplicative approximation to the nuclear norm of an arbitrary dense matrix. Our algorithms are built on three general recursive preconditioning frameworks, where matrix sketching and low-rank update formulas are carefully tailored to the problems' structure.

Graph neural networks (GNNs) have emerged as a powerful framework for a wide range of node-level graph learning tasks. However, their performance is often constrained by reliance on random or minimally informed initial feature representations, which can lead to slow convergence and suboptimal solutions. In this paper, we leverage a statistically grounded method, one-hot graph encoder embedding (GEE), to generate high-quality initial node features that enhance the end-to-end training of GNNs. We refer to this integrated framework as the GEE-powered GNN (GG), and demonstrate its effectiveness through extensive simulations and real-world experiments across both unsupervised and supervised settings. In node clustering, GG consistently achieves state-of-the-art performance, ranking first across all evaluated real-world datasets, while exhibiting faster convergence compared to the standard GNN. For node classification, we further propose an enhanced variant, GG-C, which concatenates the outputs of GG and GEE and outperforms competing baselines. These results confirm the importance of principled, structure-aware feature initialization in realizing the full potential of GNNs.

We study the generalized linear bandit (GLB) problem, a contextual multi-armed bandit framework that extends the classical linear model by incorporating a non-linear link function, thereby modeling a broad class of reward distributions such as Bernoulli and Poisson. While GLBs are widely applicable to real-world scenarios, their non-linear nature introduces significant challenges in achieving both computational and statistical efficiency. Existing methods typically trade off between two objectives, either incurring high per-round costs for optimal regret guarantees or compromising statistical efficiency to enable constant-time updates. In this paper, we propose a jointly efficient algorithm that attains a nearly optimal regret bound with $\mathcal{O}(1)$ time and space complexities per round. The core of our method is a tight confidence set for the online mirror descent (OMD) estimator, which is derived through a novel analysis that leverages the notion of mix loss from online prediction. The analysis shows that our OMD estimator, even with its one-pass updates, achieves statistical efficiency comparable to maximum likelihood estimation, thereby leading to a jointly efficient optimistic method.

In the modern era, the complexity and density of data structures have significantly increased, particularly with the advent of technologies such as cloud computing, sensor networks and manifold-based data representations. A notable case within this landscape is the class of measure-valued data, which encompasses data best represented through probability distributions rather than individual observations (Ranjan and Gneiting, 2010; Gneiting and Ranjan, 2013). This framework is prevalent across various fields, including actuarial science, economics and finance, environmental sciences, etc where uncertainty and heterogeneity are inherent and models must reflect the full distributional information. For instance, in economics integrating diverse models allows for the generation of numerous meaningfull probabilistic scenarios that can effectively inform future decision-making (Moral-Benito, 2015; Hong and Martin, 2017; Christensen et al., 2018; Steel, 2020; Koundouri et al., 2024). In environmental sciences, the prediction of future states through stochastic simulation models is crucial for evaluating the consequences of natural hazards (Muis et al., 2015; Hsiang et al., 2017; Fronzek et al., 2022) or improving climatic forecasts (Friederichs and Thorarinsdottir, 2012; Scheuerer and M oller, 2015; Papayiannis et al., 2018).

We propose a framework for building patient-specific treatment recommendation models, building on the large recent literature on learning patient-level causal models and inspired by the target trial paradigm of Hernan and Robins. We focus on safety and validity, including the crucial issue of causal identification when using observational data. We do not provide a specific model, but rather a way to integrate existing methods and know-how into a practical pipeline. We further provide a real world use-case of treatment optimization for patients with heart failure who develop acute kidney injury during hospitalization. The results suggest our pipeline can improve patient outcomes over the current treatment regime.

Deep neural networks have demonstrated remarkable performance across numerous learning tasks but often suffer from miscalibration, resulting in unreliable probability outputs. This has inspired many recent works on mitigating miscalibration, particularly through post-hoc recalibration methods that aim to obtain calibrated probabilities without sacrificing the classification performance of pre-trained models. In this study, we summarize and categorize previous works into three general strategies: intuitively designed methods, binning-based methods, and methods based on formulations of ideal calibration. Through theoretical and practical analysis, we highlight ten common limitations in previous approaches. To address these limitations, we propose a probabilistic learning framework for calibration called h-calibration, which theoretically constructs an equivalent learning formulation for canonical calibration with boundedness. On this basis, we design a simple yet effective post-hoc calibration algorithm. Our method not only overcomes the ten identified limitations but also achieves markedly better performance than traditional methods, as validated by extensive experiments. We further analyze, both theoretically and experimentally, the relationship and advantages of our learning objective compared to traditional proper scoring rule. In summary, our probabilistic framework derives an approximately equivalent differentiable objective for learning error-bounded calibrated probabilities, elucidating the correspondence and convergence properties of computational statistics with respect to theoretical bounds in canonical calibration. The theoretical effectiveness is verified on standard post-hoc calibration benchmarks by achieving state-of-the-art performance. This research offers valuable reference for learning reliable likelihood in related fields.

The increasing complexity of machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence (AI) models has created a pressing need for tools that help scientists, engineers, and policymakers interpret and refine model decisions and predictions. Influence functions, originating from robust statistics, have emerged as a popular approach for this purpose. However, the heuristic foundations of influence functions rely on low-dimensional assumptions where the number of parameters $p$ is much smaller than the number of observations $n$. In contrast, modern AI models often operate in high-dimensional regimes with large $p$, challenging these assumptions. In this paper, we examine the accuracy of influence functions in high-dimensional settings. Our theoretical and empirical analyses reveal that influence functions cannot reliably fulfill their intended purpose. We then introduce an alternative approximation, called Newfluence, that maintains similar computational efficiency while offering significantly improved accuracy. Newfluence is expected to provide more accurate insights than many existing methods for interpreting complex AI models and diagnosing their issues. Moreover, the high-dimensional framework we develop in this paper can also be applied to analyze other popular techniques, such as Shapley values.

In multi-source learning with discrete labels, distributional heterogeneity across domains poses a central challenge to developing predictive models that transfer reliably to unseen domains. We study multi-source unsupervised domain adaptation, where labeled data are drawn from multiple source domains and only unlabeled data from a target domain. To address potential distribution shifts, we propose a novel Conditional Group Distributionally Robust Optimization (CG-DRO) framework that learns a classifier by minimizing the worst-case cross-entropy loss over the convex combinations of the conditional outcome distributions from the sources. To solve the resulting minimax problem, we develop an efficient Mirror Prox algorithm, where we employ a double machine learning procedure to estimate the risk function. This ensures that the errors of the machine learning estimators for the nuisance models enter only at higher-order rates, thereby preserving statistical efficiency under covariate shift. We establish fast statistical convergence rates for the estimator by constructing two surrogate minimax optimization problems that serve as theoretical bridges. A distinguishing challenge for CG-DRO is the emergence of nonstandard asymptotics: the empirical estimator may fail to converge to a standard limiting distribution due to boundary effects and system instability. To address this, we introduce a perturbation-based inference procedure that enables uniformly valid inference, including confidence interval construction and hypothesis testing.

Time series forecasting is a fundamental task with broad applications, yet conventional methods often treat data as discrete sequences, overlooking their origin as noisy samples of continuous processes. Crucially, discrete noisy observations cannot uniquely determine a continuous function; instead, they correspond to a family of plausible functions. Mathematically, time series can be viewed as noisy observations of a continuous function family governed by a shared probability measure. Thus, the forecasting task can be framed as learning the transition from the historical function family to the future function family. This reframing introduces two key challenges: (1) How can we leverage discrete historical and future observations to learn the relationships between their underlying continuous functions? (2) How can we model the transition path in function space from the historical function family to the future function family? To address these challenges, we propose NeuTSFlow, a novel framework that leverages Neural Operators to facilitate flow matching for learning path of measure between historical and future function families. By parameterizing the velocity field of the flow in infinite-dimensional function spaces, NeuTSFlow moves beyond traditional methods that focus on dependencies at discrete points, directly modeling function-level features instead. Experiments on diverse forecasting tasks demonstrate NeuTSFlow's superior accuracy and robustness, validating the effectiveness of the function-family perspective.

Archetypal Analysis (AA) is an unsupervised learning method that represents data as convex combinations of extreme patterns called archetypes. While AA provides interpretable and low-dimensional representations, it can inadvertently encode sensitive attributes, leading to fairness concerns. In this work, we propose Fair Archetypal Analysis (FairAA), a modified formulation that explicitly reduces the influence of sensitive group information in the learned projections. We also introduce FairKernelAA, a nonlinear extension that addresses fairness in more complex data distributions. Our approach incorporates a fairness regularization term while preserving the structure and interpretability of the archetypes. We evaluate FairAA and FairKernelAA on synthetic datasets, including linear, nonlinear, and multi-group scenarios, demonstrating their ability to reduce group separability -- as measured by mean maximum discrepancy and linear separability -- without substantially compromising explained variance. We further validate our methods on the real-world ANSUR I dataset, confirming their robustness and practical utility. The results show that FairAA achieves a favorable trade-off between utility and fairness, making it a promising tool for responsible representation learning in sensitive applications.