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 Statistical Learning


Fast Training of Large Kernel Models with Delayed Projections

Neural Information Processing Systems

Classical kernel machines have historically faced significant challenges in scaling to large datasets and model sizes--a key ingredient that has driven the success of neural networks. In this paper, we present a new methodology for building kernel machines that can scale efficiently with both data size and model size. Our algorithm introduces delayed projections to Preconditioned Stochastic Gradient Descent (PSGD) allowing the training of much larger models than was previously feasible.


Exploring the Noise Robustness of Online Conformal Prediction

Neural Information Processing Systems

Conformal prediction is an emerging technique for uncertainty quantification that constructs prediction sets guaranteed to contain the true label with a predefined probability. Recent work develops online conformal prediction methods that adaptively construct prediction sets to accommodate distribution shifts. However, existing algorithms typically assume perfect label accuracy which rarely holds in practice. In this work, we investigate the robustness of online conformal prediction under uniform label noise with a known noise rate. We show that label noise causes a persistent gap between the actual mis-coverage rate and the desired rate ฮฑ, leading to either overestimated or underestimated coverage guarantees. To address this issue, we propose a novel loss function robust pinball loss, which provides an unbiased estimate of clean pinball loss without requiring ground-truth labels. Theoretically, we demonstrate that robust pinball loss enables online conformal prediction to eliminate the coverage gap under uniform label noise, achieving a convergence rate of O(T 1/2) for both empirical and expected coverage errors (i.e., absolute deviation of the empirical and expected mis-coverage rate from the target level ฮฑ). This loss offers a general solution to the uniform label noise, and is complementary to existing online conformal prediction methods. Extensive experiments demonstrate that robust pinball loss enhances the noise robustness of various online conformal prediction methods by achieving a precise coverage guarantee and improved efficiency.


Parameter Efficient Fine-tuning via Explained Variance Adaptation

Neural Information Processing Systems

Foundation models (FMs) are pre-trained on large-scale datasets and then finetuned for a specific downstream task. The most common fine-tuning method is to update pretrained weights via low-rank adaptation (LoRA). Existing initialization strategies for LoRA often rely on singular value decompositions (SVD) of gradients or weight matrices. However, they do not provably maximize the expected gradient signal, which is critical for fast adaptation. To this end, we introduce Explained Variance Adaptation (EVA), an initialization scheme that uses the directions capturing the most activation variance, provably maximizing the expected gradient signal and accelerating fine-tuning.


DuetGraph: Coarse-to-Fine Knowledge Graph Reasoning with Dual-Pathway Global-Local Fusion

Neural Information Processing Systems

Knowledge graphs (KGs) are vital for enabling knowledge reasoning across various domains. Recent KG reasoning methods that integrate both global and local information have achieved promising results. However, existing methods often suffer from score over-smoothing, which blurs the distinction between correct and incorrect answers and hinders reasoning effectiveness. To address this, we propose DuetGraph, a coarse-to-fine KG reasoning mechanism with dual-pathway global-local fusion. DuetGraph tackles over-smoothing by segregating--rather than stacking--the processing of local (via message passing) and global (via attention) information into two distinct pathways, preventing mutual interference and preserving representational discrimination. In addition, DuetGraph introduces a coarse-to-fine optimization, which partitions entities into high-and low-score subsets. This strategy narrows the candidate space and sharpens the score gap between the two subsets, which alleviates over-smoothing and enhances inference quality. Extensive experiments on various datasets demonstrate that DuetGraph achieves state-of-the-art (SOTA) performance, with up to an 8.7% improvement in reasoning quality and a 1.8 acceleration in training efficiency.


Convergent Functions, Divergent Forms

Neural Information Processing Systems

We introduce LOKI, a compute-efficient framework for co-designing morphologies and control policies that generalize across unseen tasks. Inspired by biological adaptation--where animals quickly adjust to morphological changes--our method overcomes the inefficiencies of traditional evolutionary and quality-diversity algorithms. We propose learning convergent functions: shared control policies trained across clusters of morphologically similar designs in a learned latent space, drastically reducing the training cost per design. Simultaneously, we promote divergent forms by replacing mutation with dynamic local search, enabling broader exploration and preventing premature convergence. The policy reuse allows us to explore 780 more designs using 78% fewer simulation steps and 40% less compute per design. Local competition paired with a broader search results in a diverse set of high-performing final morphologies. Using the UNIMAL design space and a flatterrain locomotion task, LOKI discovers a rich variety of designs--ranging from quadrupeds to crabs, bipedals, and spinners--far more diverse than those produced by prior work. These morphologies also transfer better to unseen downstream tasks * Equal contribution 39th Conference on Neural Information Processing Systems (NeurIPS 2025).


Tight Generalization Bounds for Large-Margin Halfspaces

Neural Information Processing Systems

We prove the first generalization bound for large-margin halfspaces that is asymptotically tight in the tradeoff between the margin, the fraction of training points with the given margin, the failure probability and the number of training points.


Automatic Visual Instrumental Variable Learning for Confounding-Resistant Domain Generalization

Neural Information Processing Systems

Many confounding-resistant domain generalization methods for image classification have been developed based on causal interventions. However, their reliance on strong assumptions limits their effectiveness in handling unobserved confounders. Although recent work introduces instrumental variables (IVs) to overcome this limitation, the reliance on manually predefined instruments, particularly in the context of visual data, may result in severe bias or invalidity when IV conditions are violated. To address these issues, we propose a novel approach to automatically learning Visual Instrumental Variables for confounding-resistant Domain Generalization (VIV-DG). We observe that certain non-causal visual attributes in image data naturally satisfy the basic conditions required for valid IVs. Motivated by this insight, we propose the visual instrumental variable, a novel concept that extends classical IV theory to the visual domain. Furthermore, we develop an automatic visual instrumental variable learner that enforces IV conditions on learned representations, enabling the automatic learning of valid visual instrumental variables from image data. Ultimately, VIV-DG inherits the strengths of classical IVs to mitigate unobserved confounding and avoids the significant bias caused by violations of IV conditions in predefined IVs. Extensive experiments on multiple benchmarks verify that VIV-DG achieves superior generalization ability.


GeneFlow: Translation of Single-cell Gene Expression to Histopathological Images via Rectified Flow

Neural Information Processing Systems

Spatial transcriptomics technologies can be used to align transcriptomes with histopathological morphology, presenting exciting new opportunities for biomolecular discovery. Using spatial transcriptomic gene expression and corresponding histology data, we construct a novel framework, GeneFlow, to map single-and multi-cell gene expression onto paired cellular images. By combining an attentionbased RNA encoder with a conditional UNet guided by rectified flow, we generate high-resolution images with different staining methods (e.g., H&E, DAPI) to highlight various cellular/ tissue structures. Rectified flow with high-order ODE solvers creates a continuous, bijective mapping between expression and image manifolds, addressing the many-to-one relationship inherent in this problem. Our method enables the generation of realistic cellular morphology features and spatially resolved intercellular interactions under genetic or chemical perturbations. This enables minimally invasive disease diagnosis by revealing dysregulated patterns in imaging phenotypes. Our rectified flow based method outperforms diffusion methods and baselines in all experiments.


Causal Mixture Models: Characterization and Discovery

Neural Information Processing Systems

Real-world datasets are often a combination of unobserved subpopulations that follow distinct causal generating processes. In an observational study, for example, participants may fall into unknown groups that either (a) respond effectively to a drug, or (b) show no response due to drug resistance. Not accounting for such heterogeneity then risks biased estimates of drug effectiveness. In this work, we formulate this setting through a causal mixture model, in which the data-generating process of each variable depends on latent group membership (a or b).


Ascent Fails to Forget

Neural Information Processing Systems

Contrary to common belief, we show that gradient ascent-based unconstrained optimization methods frequently fail to perform machine unlearning, a phenomenon we attribute to the inherent statistical dependence between the forget and retain data sets. This dependence, which can manifest itself even as simple correlations, undermines the misconception that these sets can be independently manipulated during unlearning. We provide empirical and theoretical evidence showing these methods often fail precisely due to this overlooked relationship. For random forget sets, this dependence means that degrading forget set metrics (which, for the oracle, should mirror test set metrics) inevitably harms overall test performance. Going beyond random sets, we consider logistic regression as an instructive example where a critical failure mode emerges: inter-set dependence causes gradient descentascent iterations to progressively diverge from the oracle. Strikingly, these methods can converge to solutions that are not only far from the oracle but are potentially even further from it than the original model itself, rendering the unlearning process actively detrimental. A toy example further illustrates how this dependence can trap models in inferior local minima, inescapable via finetuning. Our findings highlight that the presence of such statistical dependencies, even when manifest only as correlations, can be sufficient for ascent-based unlearning to fail. Our theoretical insights are corroborated by experiments on complex neural networks, demonstrating that these methods do not perform as expected in practice due to this unaddressed statistical interplay.