The modern scale of data has brought new challenges to Bayesian inference. In particular, conventional MCMC algorithms are computationally very expensive for large data sets. A promising approach to solve this problem is embarrassingly parallel MCMC (EP-MCMC), which first partitions the data into multiple subsets and runs independent sampling algorithms on each subset. The subset posterior draws are then aggregated via some combining rules to obtain the final approximation. Existing EP-MCMC algorithms are limited by approximation accuracy and difficulty in resampling. In this article, we propose a new EP-MCMC algorithm PART that solves these problems. The new algorithm applies random partition trees to combine the subset posterior draws, which is distribution-free, easy to resample from and can adapt to multiple scales. We provide theoretical justification and extensive experiments illustrating empirical performance.

We consider the problem of binary classification when the covariates conditioned on the each of the response values follow multivariate Gaussian distributions. We focus on the setting where the covariance matrices for the two conditional distributions are the same. The corresponding generative model classifier, derived via the Bayes rule, also called Linear Discriminant Analysis, has been shown to behave poorly in high-dimensional settings. We present a novel analysis of the classification error of any linear discriminant approach given conditional Gaussian models. This allows us to compare the generative model classifier, other recently proposed discriminative approaches that directly learn the discriminant function, and then finally logistic regression which is another classical discriminative model classifier. As we show, under a natural sparsity assumption, and letting $s$ denote the sparsity of the Bayes classifier, $p$ the number of covariates, and $n$ the number of samples, the simple ($\ell_1$-regularized) logistic regression classifier achieves the fast misclassification error rates of $O\left(\frac{s \log p}{n}\right)$, which is much better than the other approaches, which are either inconsistent under high-dimensional settings, or achieve a slower rate of $O\left(\sqrt{\frac{s \log p}{n}}\right)$.

Wasserstein gradient flows provide a powerful means of understanding and solving many diffusion equations. Specifically, Fokker-Planck equations, which model the diffusion of probability measures, can be understood as gradient descent over entropy functionals in Wasserstein space. This equivalence, introduced by Jordan, Kinderlehrer and Otto, inspired the so-called JKO scheme to approximate these diffusion processes via an implicit discretization of the gradient flow in Wasserstein space. Solving the optimization problem associated with each JKO step, however, presents serious computational challenges. We introduce a scalable method to approximate Wasserstein gradient flows, targeted to machine learning applications.

Machine learning (ML) systems are increasingly deployed in high-stakes domains where reliability is paramount. This thesis investigates how uncertainty estimation can enhance the safety and trustworthiness of ML, focusing on selective prediction -- where models abstain when confidence is low. We first show that a model's training trajectory contains rich uncertainty signals that can be exploited without altering its architecture or loss. By ensembling predictions from intermediate checkpoints, we propose a lightweight, post-hoc abstention method that works across tasks, avoids the cost of deep ensembles, and achieves state-of-the-art selective prediction performance. Crucially, this approach is fully compatible with differential privacy (DP), allowing us to study how privacy noise affects uncertainty quality. We find that while many methods degrade under DP, our trajectory-based approach remains robust, and we introduce a framework for isolating the privacy-uncertainty trade-off. Next, we then develop a finite-sample decomposition of the selective classification gap -- the deviation from the oracle accuracy-coverage curve -- identifying five interpretable error sources and clarifying which interventions can close the gap. This explains why calibration alone cannot fix ranking errors, motivating methods that improve uncertainty ordering. Finally, we show that uncertainty signals can be adversarially manipulated to hide errors or deny service while maintaining high accuracy, and we design defenses combining calibration audits with verifiable inference. Together, these contributions advance reliable ML by improving, evaluating, and safeguarding uncertainty estimation, enabling models that not only make accurate predictions -- but also know when to say "I do not know".

We introduce ANTIDOTE, a new class of objectives for learning under noisy labels which are defined in terms of a relaxation over an information-divergence neighborhood. Using convex duality, we provide a reformulation as an adversarial training method that has similar computational cost to training with standard cross-entropy loss. We show that our approach adaptively reduces the influence of the samples with noisy labels during learning, exhibiting a behavior that is analogous to forgetting those samples. ANTIDOTE is effective in practical environments where label noise is inherent in the training data or where an adversary can alter the training labels. Extensive empirical evaluations on different levels of symmetric, asymmetric, human annotation, and real-world label noise show that ANTIDOTE outperforms leading comparable losses in the field and enjoys a time complexity that is very close to that of the standard cross entropy loss.

Federated learning has emerged as an essential paradigm for distributed multi-source data analysis under privacy concerns. Most existing federated learning methods focus on the ``static" datasets. However, in many real-world applications, data arrive continuously over time, forming streaming datasets. This introduces additional challenges for data storage and algorithm design, particularly under high-dimensional settings. In this paper, we propose a federated online learning (FOL) method for distributed multi-source streaming data analysis. To account for heterogeneity, a personalized model is constructed for each data source, and a novel ``subgroup" assumption is employed to capture potential similarities, thereby enhancing model performance. We adopt the penalized renewable estimation method and the efficient proximal gradient descent for model training. The proposed method aligns with both federated and online learning frameworks: raw data are not exchanged among sources, ensuring data privacy, and only summary statistics of previous data batches are required for model updates, significantly reducing storage demands. Theoretically, we establish the consistency properties for model estimation, variable selection, and subgroup structure recovery, demonstrating optimal statistical efficiency. Simulations illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed method. Furthermore, when applied to the financial lending data and the web log data, the proposed method also exhibits advantageous prediction performance. Results of the analysis also provide some practical insights.

Transformers have demonstrated remarkable capabilities in multi-step reasoning tasks. However, understandings of the underlying mechanisms by which they acquire these abilities through training remain limited, particularly from a theoretical standpoint. This work investigates how transformers learn to solve symbolic multi-step reasoning problems through chain-of-thought processes, focusing on path-finding in trees. We analyze two intertwined tasks: a backward reasoning task, where the model outputs a path from a goal node to the root, and a more complex forward reasoning task, where the model implements two-stage reasoning by first identifying the goal-to-root path and then reversing it to produce the root-to-goal path. Our theoretical analysis, grounded in the dynamics of gradient descent, shows that trained one-layer transformers can provably solve both tasks with generalization guarantees to unseen trees. In particular, our multi-phase training dynamics for forward reasoning elucidate how different attention heads learn to specialize and coordinate autonomously to solve the two subtasks in a single autoregressive path. These results provide a mechanistic explanation of how trained transformers can implement sequential algorithmic procedures. Moreover, they offer insights into the emergence of reasoning abilities, suggesting that when tasks are structured to take intermediate chain-of-thought steps, even shallow multi-head transformers can effectively solve problems that would otherwise require deeper architectures.

Predictions and generations from large language models are increasingly being explored as an aid to computational social science and human subject research in limited data regimes. While previous technical work has explored the potential to use model-predicted labels for unlabeled data in a principled manner, there is increasing interest in using large language models to generate entirely new synthetic samples (also termed as synthetic simulations), such as in responses to surveys. However, it is not immediately clear by what means practitioners can combine such data with real data and yet produce statistically valid conclusions upon them. In this work, we introduce a new estimator based on generalized method of moments, providing a hyperparameter-free solution with strong theoretical guarantees to address the challenge at hand. Surprisingly, we find that interactions between the moment residuals of synthetic data and those of real data can improve estimates of the target parameter. We empirically validate the finite-sample performance of our estimator across different regression tasks in computational social science applications, demonstrating large empirical gains.

Continual learning aims to enable models to retain existing knowledge while continuously acquiring new knowledge, typically derived from new data, under the constraint of limited or restricted access to data related to previously learned knowledge. Depending on the defined scenarios, continual learning is typically categorized into task-incremental learning, class-incremental learning [4], and domain-incremental learning. Among these three settings, class-incremental learning has been the most extensively studied. Taking classification tasks as an example, class-incremental learning divides a dataset into multiple sessions, where the classes in different sessions do not overlap. The model is required to learn the classes of each session over time and is evaluated on all classes after each update. In contrast, task-incremental learning assumes knowledge of which session the data belongs to during evaluation, allowing the model to classify only within the corresponding task. On the other hand, in domain-incremental learning, different sessions involve data from the same set of classes but with different distributions. The model is required to correctly identify the domain of the test data while performing classification. Research targeting these settings has led to significant improvements in model performance in scenarios requiring multi-stage fine-tuning.

The problem of hedging derivatives represents a central challenge in financial markets. Under Markovian models, the theory is very well developed, specifically for European-style derivatives. However, significant challenges arise when considering path-dependent options where the payoff depends on the asset's entire price path, or further still, when the underlying asset has non-Markovian dynamics, where conventional parametrized hedging approaches tend to be too restrictive or untractable. In response to these challenges, non-parametric approaches have gained a lot of popularity, and more specifically with the improvement of machine learning software and hardware, deep hedging approaches for their versatility, ease of train and ability to capture nonlinearities, see for instance B uhler et al. (2018).