Statistical Learning
Learning to Learn the Macroscopic Fundamental Diagram using Physics-Informed and meta Machine Learning techniques
Roark, Amalie, Agriesti, Serio, Pereira, Francisco Camara, Cantelmo, Guido
The Macroscopic Fundamental Diagram is a popular tool used to describe traffic dynamics in an aggregated way, with applications ranging from traffic control to incident analysis. However, estimating the MFD for a given network requires large numbers of loop detectors, which is not always available in practice. This article proposes a framework harnessing meta-learning, a subcategory of machine learning that trains models to understand and adapt to new tasks on their own, to alleviate the data scarcity challenge. The developed model is trained and tested by leveraging data from multiple cities and exploiting it to model the MFD of other cities with different shares of detectors and topological structures. The proposed meta-learning framework is applied to an ad-hoc Multi-Task Physics-Informed Neural Network, specifically designed to estimate the MFD. Results show an average MSE improvement in flow prediction ranging between ~ 17500 and 36000 (depending on the subset of loop detectors tested). The meta-learning framework thus successfully generalizes across diverse urban settings and improves performance on cities with limited data, demonstrating the potential of using meta-learning when a limited number of detectors is available. Finally, the proposed framework is validated against traditional transfer learning approaches and tested with FitFun, a non-parametric model from the literature, to prove its transferability.
A Cost-Effective Framework for Predicting Parking Availability Using Geospatial Data and Machine Learning
Bagosher, Madyan, Mustafa, Tala, Alsmirat, Mohammad, Al-Ali, Amal, Jawarneh, Isam Mashhour Al
As urban populations continue to grow, cities face numerous challenges in managing parking and determining occupancy. This issue is particularly pronounced in university campuses, where students need to find vacant parking spots quickly and conveniently during class timings. The limited availability of parking spaces on campuses underscores the necessity of implementing efficient systems to allocate vacant parking spots effectively. We propose a smart framework that integrates multiple data sources, including street maps, mobility, and meteorological data, through a spatial join operation to capture parking behavior and vehicle movement patterns over the span of 3 consecutive days with an hourly duration between 7AM till 3PM. The system will not require any sensing tools to be installed in the street or in the parking area to provide its services since all the data needed will be collected using location services. The framework will use the expected parking entrance and time to specify a suitable parking area. Several forecasting models, namely, Linear Regression, Support Vector Regression (SVR), Random Forest Regression (RFR), and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), are evaluated. Hyperparameter tuning was employed using grid search, and model performance is assessed using Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Coefficient of Determination (R2). Random Forest Regression achieved the lowest RMSE of 0.142 and highest R2 of 0.582. However, given the time-series nature of the task, an LSTM model may perform better with additional data and longer timesteps.
Non-Dissipative Graph Propagation for Non-Local Community Detection
Leeney, William, Gravina, Alessio, Bacciu, Davide
Community detection in graphs aims to cluster nodes into meaningful groups, a task particularly challenging in heterophilic graphs, where nodes sharing similarities and membership to the same community are typically distantly connected. This is particularly evident when this task is tackled by graph neural networks, since they rely on an inherently local message passing scheme to learn the node representations that serve to cluster nodes into communities. In this work, we argue that the ability to propagate long-range information during message passing is key to effectively perform community detection in heterophilic graphs. To this end, we introduce the Unsupervised Antisymmetric Graph Neural Network (uAGNN), a novel unsupervised community detection approach leveraging non-dissipative dynamical systems to ensure stability and to propagate long-range information effectively. By employing antisymmetric weight matrices, uAGNN captures both local and global graph structures, overcoming the limitations posed by heterophilic scenarios. Extensive experiments across ten datasets demonstrate uAGNN's superior performance in high and medium heterophilic settings, where traditional methods fail to exploit long-range dependencies. These results highlight uAGNN's potential as a powerful tool for unsupervised community detection in diverse graph environments.
FM4NPP: A Scaling Foundation Model for Nuclear and Particle Physics
Park, David, Li, Shuhang, Huang, Yi, Luo, Xihaier, Yu, Haiwang, Go, Yeonju, Pinkenburg, Christopher, Lin, Yuewei, Yoo, Shinjae, Osborn, Joseph, Huang, Jin, Ren, Yihui
Large language models have revolutionized artificial intelligence by enabling large, generalizable models trained through self-supervision. This paradigm has inspired the development of scientific foundation models (FMs). However, applying this capability to experimental particle physics is challenging due to the sparse, spatially distributed nature of detector data, which differs dramatically from natural language. This work addresses if an FM for particle physics can scale and generalize across diverse tasks. We introduce a new dataset with more than 11 million particle collision events and a suite of downstream tasks and labeled data for evaluation. We propose a novel self-supervised training method for detector data and demonstrate its neural scalability with models that feature up to 188 million parameters. With frozen weights and task-specific adapters, this FM consistently outperforms baseline models across all downstream tasks. The performance also exhibits robust data-efficient adaptation. Further analysis reveals that the representations extracted by the FM are task-agnostic but can be specialized via a single linear mapping for different downstream tasks.
Label Smoothing is a Pragmatic Information Bottleneck
This study revisits label smoothing via a form of information bottleneck. Under the assumption of sufficient model flexibility and no conflicting labels for the same input, we theoretically and experimentally demonstrate that the model output obtained through label smoothing explores the optimal solution of the information bottleneck. Based on this, label smoothing can be interpreted as a practical approach to the information bottleneck, enabling simple implementation. As an information bottleneck method, we experimentally show that label smoothing also exhibits the property of being insensitive to factors that do not contain information about the target, or to factors that provide no additional information about it when conditioned on another variable.
Graph Neural Network for Product Recommendation on the Amazon Co-purchase Graph
Cao, Mengyang, Yang, Frank F., Jin, Yi, Yan, Yijun
Identifying relevant information among massive volumes of data is a challenge for modern recommendation systems. Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have demonstrated significant potential by utilizing structural and semantic relationships through graph-based learning. This study assessed the abilities of four GNN architectures, LightGCN, Graph-SAGE, GAT, and PinSAGE, on the Amazon Product Co-purchase Network under link prediction settings. W e examined practical trade-offs between architectures, model performance, scalability, training complexity and generalization. The outcomes demonstrated each model's performance characteristics for deploying GNN in real-world recommendation scenarios.
Benchmarking Sociolinguistic Diversity in Swahili NLP: A Taxonomy-Guided Approach
Oketch, Kezia, Lalor, John P., Abbasi, Ahmed
We introduce the first taxonomy-guided evaluation of Swahili NLP, addressing gaps in sociolinguistic diversity. Drawing on health-related psychometric tasks, we collect a dataset of 2,170 free-text responses from Kenyan speakers. The data exhibits tribal influences, urban vernacular, code-mixing, and loanwords. We develop a structured taxonomy and use it as a lens for examining model prediction errors across pre-trained and instruction-tuned language models. Our findings advance culturally grounded evaluation frameworks and highlight the role of sociolinguistic variation in shaping model performance.
Benchmarking Pre-Trained Time Series Models for Electricity Price Forecasting
Sartipi, Timothรฉe Hornek Amir, Tchappi, Igor, Fridgen, Gilbert
Accurate electricity price forecasting (EPF) is crucial for effective decision-making in power trading on the spot market. While recent advances in generative artificial intelligence (GenAI) and pre-trained large language models (LLMs) have inspired the development of numerous time series foundation models (TSFMs) for time series forecasting, their effectiveness in EPF remains uncertain. To address this gap, we benchmark several state-of-the-art pretrained models--Chronos-Bolt, Chronos-T5, TimesFM, Moirai, Time-MoE, and TimeGPT--against established statistical and machine learning (ML) methods for EPF. Using 2024 day-ahead auction (DAA) electricity prices from Germany, France, the Netherlands, Austria, and Belgium, we generate daily forecasts with a one-day horizon. Chronos-Bolt and Time-MoE emerge as the strongest among the TSFMs, performing on par with traditional models. However, the biseasonal MSTL model, which captures daily and weekly seasonality, stands out for its consistent performance across countries and evaluation metrics, with no TSFM statistically outperforming it.
Bi-directional Model Cascading with Proxy Confidence
Model Cascading, recently applied successfully to LLMs, is a simple but powerful technique that improves the efficiency of inference by selectively applying models of varying sizes. Models are used in sequence from smallest to largest, only deferring samples to large, costly models when smaller models are not sufficiently confident. Existing approaches to deferral use only limited small model confidence estimates because of the inaccessibility of the large model, although large model confidence is known to be important. We therefore propose a bi-directional approach to deferral that considers the confidence of small and large models in the cascade simultaneously through the use of a proxy for the large model. This requires a richer representation of model confidence to enable comparative calibration: we use an analysis of hidden states to improve post-invocation confidence of the small model, which in itself improves cascading results over prior approaches. We then combine this with a tiny proxy model to estimate pre-invocation confidence of the large model. We examine the proposed cascading system over challenging, multiple-choice datasets, finding improvements over standard cascading baselines reflected in reductions in deferrals to more costly models.
Understanding Data Influence with Differential Approximation
Tan, Haoru, Wu, Sitong, Wu, Xiuzhe, Wang, Wang, Zhao, Bo, Xie, Zeke, Xia, Gui-Song, Qi, Xiaojuan
Data plays a pivotal role in the groundbreaking advancements in artificial intelligence. The quantitative analysis of data significantly contributes to model training, enhancing both the efficiency and quality of data utilization. However, existing data analysis tools often lag in accuracy. For instance, many of these tools even assume that the loss function of neural networks is convex. These limitations make it challenging to implement current methods effectively. In this paper, we introduce a new formulation to approximate a sample's influence by accumulating the differences in influence between consecutive learning steps, which we term Diff-In. Specifically, we formulate the sample-wise influence as the cumulative sum of its changes/differences across successive training iterations. By employing second-order approximations, we approximate these difference terms with high accuracy while eliminating the need for model convexity required by existing methods. Despite being a second-order method, Diff-In maintains computational complexity comparable to that of first-order methods and remains scalable. This efficiency is achieved by computing the product of the Hessian and gradient, which can be efficiently approximated using finite differences of first-order gradients. We assess the approximation accuracy of Diff-In both theoretically and empirically. Our theoretical analysis demonstrates that Diff-In achieves significantly lower approximation error compared to existing influence estimators. Extensive experiments further confirm its superior performance across multiple benchmark datasets in three data-centric tasks: data cleaning, data deletion, and coreset selection. Notably, our experiments on data pruning for large-scale vision-language pre-training show that Diff-In can scale to millions of data points and outperforms strong baselines.